长城汽车（GWM或“公司”）2022年全年未经审计业绩低于我们以及市场一致预期，主要原因是公司战略调整叠加年终奖计提所致。公司在转型之际，业绩短期会承压。当前我们给予公司“买入”投资评级，目标价为每股15.93港元，对应9.6倍2023年PE。考虑到公司主动下调2023年的销售目标，并全力开启新能源汽车新纪元，我们将会在下一份公司报告中调整我们的目标价和盈利预测，但会维持“买入”投资评级。
　　战略转型成效凸显，公司2022年所有盈利能力财务指标均录得增长。公司2022年营业收入同比略微增长。经营利润则同比增长25.75%，主要得益于公司提升了产品力，以及车型盈利能力增强。公司品牌成效显著提升，单车平均售价为人民币12.87万元，同比增长20.8%。人民币20万元以上车型销量占比也增至15.27%。即使在汽车行业经历了较为严峻疫情冲击的情况下，公司2022年归母净利润也创历史新高，录得同比双位数的增长至人民币82.79亿元。这充分体现了公司战略转型的成功。
　　后疫情时代，公司2023年海外销量有望保持强劲增长。2022年，公司海外销量也创历史新高，录得17.32万辆，同比增长21.28%。同期，公司新能源汽车成功登陆欧洲、东盟、拉美、中东、非洲以及大洋洲，全力夯实出海战略。公司在2023年会聚焦“一个长城”战略，加速出海业务，为公司增长添加新动力。
　　公司转型方向笃定，“一个长城”战略明确，全面电动化平台助力增长提速。公司哈弗新能源系将采用全新的渠道，正式走向新能源转型，并在品牌和人员上做了相应调整。魏牌和坦克将加速实现针对高端智能新能源市场的战略布局。欧拉则专注纯电动车领域。长城皮卡也将持续推出创新产品来拓展市场。公司设定2023年全年销售目标为160万辆，其中重点强调新能源渗透率目标为40-50%，混动占比则将相对更高。
　　我们相信公司的业绩在2023年第一季度仍将承压，但公司中长期增长向好的势头未变。随着公司转型升级不断深化，叠加国内外消费在后疫情时代迎来复苏，公司的盈利能力将会提升。同时，公司在2023年将会推出众多新款新能源车型，配合全新的渠道以及完备的供应链，长城汽车有望在2023年取得销量的又一步跨越。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleFlashNoteGreatWallMotor02333HKIvanWu吴凱翔Equity85225092649快讯长城汽车02333HKivanwugtjascomhk6February2023TheTableSummaryCompanysTransformationDirectionHasBeenDeterminedWaitingfortheSecondGrowth公司转型方向笃定静待二次成长快TheunauditedresultsofGreatWallMotorsGWMortheCompanyforthefullyearof2022waslowerthan讯ourandmarketconsensusexpectationsmainlyduetotheCompanysstrategicadjustmentandyear-endFlashNotebonusaccrualTheCompanyisundergoingtransformationitsoperationsremainsunderpressureintheshorttermCurrentlywegivetheCompanyaBuyinvestmentratingwithatargetpriceofHK1593persharecorrespondingto96x2023PEConsideringthattheCompanyhastakentheinitiativetoloweritssalestargetfor2023andisfullycommittedtoopeninganeweraofnewenergyvehiclesNEVwewilladjustourtargetpriceandearningsforecastinthenextCompanyReportbutmaintaintheinvestmentratingofBuyThestrategictransformationachievedoutstandingresultsandallfinancialindicatorsoftheCompanysprofitabilityin2022recordedgrowthTheCompanys2022revenueincreasedslightlyyoyOperatingprofitincreasedby2575yoymainlyduetotheCompanysenhancedproductstrengthandenhancedprofitabilityofvehiclemodelsTheCompanysbrandperformancehasimprovedsignificantlyandtheASPofvehicleswasRMB128700upby208yoyTheproportionofsalesofmodelsaboveRMB200000alsoroseto1527Evenwhentheautoindustry证experiencedrelativelysevereimpactfromtheCovidpandemictheCompanys2022netprofitattributableto券shareholdershitarecordhighrecordingdouble-digityoygrowthtoRMB8279bnThisfullyreflectsthesuccessofthe研Companysstrategictransformation告究Inthepost-pandemiceratheCompanysoverseassalesareexpectedtomaintainstronggrowthin2023In报报2022theCompanysoverseassaleshitarecordhighrecording173200vehiclesayoyincreaseof2128During告究thesameperiodtheCompanysNEVsweresuccessfullylaunchedinEuropeASEANLatinAmericatheMiddleEastEquityResearchReport研AfricaandOceaniamakingeveryefforttoenhanceitsoverseasstrategyIn2023theCompanywillfocusontheOneTableGreatWallstrategytoaccelerateoverseasbusinessandaddnewimpetustotheCompanysgrowth券Info1TheCompanystransformationdirectionhasbeendeterminedtheOneGreatWallstrategyisclearandthe证comprehensiveelectrificationplatformwillhelptoaccelerategrowthTheCompanysHavalnewenergyserieswilladoptanewchanneltoofficiallymovetowardsnewenergytransformationandmakecorrespondingadjustmentsin汽brandandpersonnelWEIandTANKwillacceleratetherealizationofthestrategiclayoutforthehigh-endsmartnew车energymarketORAfocusesonbatteryelectricvehiclesTheGWMpickupwillcontinuetolaunchinnovativeproducts行toexpandthemarketTheCompanyhassetasalestargetof16mnvehiclesfor2023emphasizingthatthenew业energypenetrationratetargetis40-50andtheproportionofplug-inhybridelectricvehiclesisrelativelyhigherWebelievethattheCompanysgrowthwillstillbeunderpressurein1Q2023buttheCompanysmedium-andAutomobilesSectorlong-termgrowthmomentumhasnotchangedWiththecontinuousdeepeningoftheCompanystransformationandupgradingpairingwiththerecoveryofdomesticandforeignconsumptioninthepost-pandemiceratheCompanysprofitabilitywillincreaseMeanwhiletheCompanywilllaunchmanybrand-newNEVmodelsin2023togetherwithbrand-newchannelsandacompletesupplychainGWMisexpectedtoachieveanothersuccessinsalesin2023TableInfo2长城汽车GreatWallMotorHKWallGreat02333SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3TablePageHeaderGreatWallMotor02333HKTable-1GWMscurrentannualunauditedkeyfinancialdataRMBbn20222021yoy1raMthgiRelbaTRevenue137351136405069Operatingprofit800963692575NetprofitattributabletoshareholdersoftheCompany827967262309Netprofitattributabletoshareholdersafterextraordinarygainslosses45364233714BasicearningspershareRMBshare09107324056February2023NetassetspershareattributabletoshareholdersoftheCompanyRMBshare7446731061Weightedaveragereturnonnetassets12601126134pptsSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternational长城汽车GWM或公司2022年全年未经审计业绩低于我们以及市场一致预期主要原因是公司战略调整叠加年终奖计提所致公司在转型之际业绩短期会承压当前我们给予公司买入投资评级目标价为每股1593港元对应96倍2023年PE考虑到公司主动下调2023年的销售目标并全力开启新能源汽车新纪元我们将会在下一份公司报告中调整我们的目标价和盈利预测但会2raMthgiRelbaT维持买入投资评级战略转型成效凸显公司2022年所有盈利能力财务指标均录得增长公司2022年营业收入同比略微增长经营利润则同比增长2575主要得益于公司提升了产品力以及车型盈利能力增强公司品牌成效显著提升单车平均售价为人民币1287万元同比增长208人民币20万元以上车型销量占比也增至1527即使在汽车行业经历了较为严峻疫情冲击的情况下公司2022年归母净利润也创历史新高录得同比双位数的增长至人民币8279亿元这充分体现了公司战略转型的成功后疫情时代公司2023年海外销量有望保持强劲增长2022年公司海外销量也创历史新高录得1732万辆同比增长2128同期公司新能源汽车成功登陆欧洲东盟拉美中东非洲以及大洋洲全力夯实出海战略公司在2023年会聚焦一个长城战略加速出海业务为公司增长添加新动力公司转型方向笃定一个长城战略明确全面电动化平台助力增长提速公司哈弗新能源系将采用全新的渠道正式走向新能源02333HK转型并在品牌和人员上做了相应调整魏牌和坦克将加速实现针对高端智能新能源市场的战略布局欧拉则专注纯电动车领域长城皮卡也将持续推出创新产品来拓展市场公司设定2023年全年销售目标为160万辆其中重点强调新能源渗透率目标为40-50混动占比则将相对更高长城汽车我们相信公司的业绩在2023年第一季度仍将承压但公司中长期增长向好的势头未变随着公司转型升级不断深化叠加国内外消费在后疫情时代迎来复苏公司的盈利能力将会提升同时公司在2023年将会推出众多新款新能源车型配合全新的渠道以及完备的供应链长城汽车有望在2023年取得销量的又一步跨越表-1长城汽车本财年未经审计关键财务指标人民币亿元GreatWallMotor20222021同比营业收入137351136405069经营利润800963692575归母净利润827967262309归母净利润扣非经45364233714基本每股盈利人民币元0910732405每股净资产人民币元7446731061加权平均净资产收益率12601126134个百分点资料来源公司国泰君安国际FlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of3TablePageHeaderGreatWallMotor02333HKCompanyRatingDefinition1raMthgiRelbaTTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to56February2023orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18months2raMthgiRelbaTRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport02333HK3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKSINOHYTEC02402HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReport长城汽车withinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesGreatWallMotorDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of3