我们预计春节期间线下零售将继续改善。近期，随着中国各地新冠新增感染数据陆续达峰，消费复苏的节奏已在加快，线下零售重拾势能。根据我们渠道调研，截至2023年1月中旬，一些主要服装品牌的零售流水同比增速表现令人鼓舞，其中运动服饰和中高端男装领跑行业，部分品牌同比增速达20%-30%。随着春节假期临近，我们预计线下零售将继续改善。长期来看，我们推荐库存管理完善的运动服饰品牌。我们推荐李宁（02331 HK）、安踏体育（02020 HK）、特步（01368 HK）和滔搏（06110 HK）。
　　2022年12月中国纺织品及服装出口走弱。2022年12月中国纺织品服装出口253.0亿美元，同比下降16.3%。其中，中国纺织品出口同比进一步下降23.0%；中国服装及配件出口同比下降10.3%。
　　我们预计中国纺织品服装出口有望于2023年第二季度迎来拐点。尽管2022年下半年以来海外高库存与高通胀的问题导致制造订单持续低迷，但以上两个问题正边际缓解。随着服装品牌方继续加大去库存力度，我们预计2023年第二季度国内纺织制造企业的订单量和产能利用率有望迎来拐点。我们认为供应商龙头将最先受惠于基本面复苏，我们推荐申洲国际(02313 HK)并建议逢低收集。
　　风险：1）新冠疫情持续；2）全球通胀超预期；3）去库存进度不及预期；4）原材料涨价。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportTextilesApparelSectorHansenTang汤瀚森行业报告纺织服装行业8675523976884hansentanggtjascomhk16January2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateApparelConsumptionRecoveringRapidly行ExpectationonTextileManufacturingIsImproving业双周报服装消费快速复苏纺织制造预期逐步改善WeexpectofflineretailsalestocontinuetoimproveduringtheSpring报FestivalperiodRecentlythepaceofrecoveryinconsumptionhasbeenRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReportacceleratingasnewCovidcasespeakedacrossChinaofflineretailhasMaintainedregainedmomentumAccordingtoourchannelchecksalesgrowthofsomemajorapparelbrandsshowedencouragingYoYperformanceuntilmid-Jan评级跑赢大市维持2023amongwhichsportswearandpremiummenswearbrands2outperformedtheindustrywithYoYsalesgrowthreaching20-30WithTextilesapparelsectorperformancetheSpringFestivalholidayapproachingweexpectofflineretailsalesto纺织服装板块表现continuetoimproveWerecommendchoosingsportswearbrandswithsoundlong-terminventorymanagementWerecommendLiNing02331HKAntaTextileApparelSectorHKCITICHSISports02020HKXtep01368HKandTopsports06110HKHSCII-DiscretionaryConsumption5ExportsoftextilesandclothingproductsinChinaweakenedinDec2022InDec2022exportvalueofChinastextilesandclothingproducts-5证decreasedby163YoYtoUS253billionamongwhichexportvalueof-15告Chinastextileproductsfellfurtherby230YoYwhileexportvalueof券-25Chinasclothingandaccessoriesfellby103YoY研报-35WeexpectaturningpointinChinasexportsoftextilesandclothing究究productsin2Q2023Althoughmanufacturingordershavebeendepressed-45ResearchReportsince2H2022duetohighoverseasinventoriesandinflationbothissuesare报研marginallyeasingAsapparelbrandscontinuetomakegreatereffortson告SourceWind券destockingweexpectaturningpointinordervolumeandcapacityutilizationEquityofdomestictextilemanufacturingcompaniesin2Q2023Webelievethat证leadingsupplierswillbethefirsttobenefitfromtherecoveryinfundamentalswerecommendShenzhouInternational02313HKandsuggesttoaccumulateondipsRisks1ProlongedCovidpandemic2higher-than-expectedglobalinflation3slower-than-expecteddestockingpaceand4increaseinrawTmaterialpricesIncreaseinrawmaterialpricesGlobalpandemicresurgence我们预计春节期间线下零售将继续改善近期随着中国各地新冠新增感染数据陆续达峰a消费复苏的节奏已在加快线下零售重拾势能根据我们渠道调研截至2023年1月中b旬一些主要服装品牌的零售流水同比增速表现令人鼓舞其中运动服饰和中高端男装领纺织l跑行业部分品牌同比增速达20-30随着春节假期临近我们预计线下零售将继续改善长期来看我们推荐库存管理完善的运动服饰品牌我们推荐李宁02331HK服e安踏体育02020HK特步01368HK和滔搏06110HK装行2022年12月中国纺织品及服装出口走弱2022年12月中国纺织品服装出口2530亿美元同比下降163其中中国纺织品出口同比进一步下降230中国服装及配件出业L口同比下降103eTextilesApparelSectorApparelTextiles我们预计中国纺织品服装出口有望于2023年第二季度迎来拐点尽管2022年下半年以f来海外高库存与高通胀的问题导致制造订单持续低迷但以上两个问题正边际缓解随着t服装品牌方继续加大去库存力度我们预计2023年第二季度国内纺织制造企业的订单量和产能利用率有望迎来拐点我们认为供应商龙头将最先受惠于基本面复苏我们推荐申M洲国际02313HK并建议逢低收集a风险1新冠疫情持续2全球通胀超预期3去库存进度不及预期4原材料涨价rginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7See1SourceTablepointturningproductsclothingandtextilesofexportswhileproductsaccessoriesandproductstextileandfabricsyarntextileChinasofChinastextilesandclothingproductsinChinaWeexpect1H2023inlevelin2Q2023expectWeexpectalsoerraticrecoverybeofWecouldpacethethatoptimisticareWedeleveragingYoYflatlargelystayedbrandsthanhigher50x70andandYoYgrowthoflowretailsalesofAntabrandFILAandallotherbrandsrecordedYoYdeclineofhighwaswhichperformancechannelretail4Q22itsannouncedAntaSportsAntaforecastingaboutconservativeareWewhichamong2023ofgrowthsalescheckchannelourtoacrossDUpdateSectorFigureSourc10000150002000025000thomesticomestic5000EEexportxportlasKey0eGACCe-xotauoChinasofvalueexportGACCt1-USbillionChinapag1valueFeb-19continuedtovalueExportvalueoftextilesvalueofandExportinChinaClothingreachedInTotalmillionUSDGrowthofGrowtheApr-19apparelGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanaaturningpointvestmentPointsfoJun-19fabricsandyarnsLHStextilevalueofGrowthexportofYoYfabricsandyarnstextileofvalueexportinGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanofflineconsumptionofflineofofroftofAug-19disclaimerexportstextilesofandclothinginproducts2Q2023clothingOct-19inDecinextileDec-19RMB3234bconsumptionFeb-20sportswearweakeneApr-20-xportxportteensteenspercentagerespectivelyRetailchannelJun-20-2022fellby103YoY103byfell2022Aug-2080xrespectivelywaswhichnotworsethanthatin3Q2022retailOveralldiscountsAntaofandFILAinOct-20AntavinDec-20aluealueofiexportsofexportstextilesandclothinginproducts2Q2023llionltignaccessoriesandclothing2711511202019Feb-21premiumandDecWeexpectmoreexpenseincurredtoweitoincurredexpensemoreexpectWesoperatingprofitmargintoreboundwithgradualimprovementApr-21showed2recoverup53Jun-212022Aug-21AntatextilebybrandssportswearmajorsomeOct-21decreasedby163YoYtosretailsaleswillregainsalesgrowthmomentumstartingfrom2Q2023eventhougheven2Q2023fromstartingmomentumgrowthsalesregainwillsalesretailsDec-21nhnsapparelasChinainAntas26ingpositivepositiveFeb-22AsccordingtotmenApr-22PinChinainrapidlyJun-22whichamong2911371532020in-230Aug-22ForsbottomDewear2Oct-22rapidofsigns38Dec-22thecAnta-100-50050100150200in2023in2022fellfurtherby230YoYwhilewhileYoY230byfurtherfell2022brandsoutperformedwithgrowthYoY20reachingsalesyearof2022ofyearheGeneralAdministrationofCustomsofChina-rdcsnraeb32YoY32byincreasedproductslinegrowthin2022butconfidentaboutsalesrecoveryin2023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