过去的两周内，市场在交易中国经济的快速重启，符合我们先前的预期。不过，港股食品饮料板块表现总体上似乎对此并不敏感，反映了市场对其估值层面的看法分歧。我们认为，投资者现阶段应继续重点关注那些有望在2023年实现更强劲需求复苏的细分品类。具体而言，我们看好啤酒、非酒精饮料、奶酪、常温酸奶和液态奶产品。根据我们近期的调研和渠道验证，自1月中旬乳制品库存水平趋于理想，表明春节假期送礼需求转好，尤其在低线城市与农村市场。此外，我们见到2023年1月方便面和非酒精饮料的价格折扣相比2022年12月有所收窄。啤酒赛道的高端化趋势保持不变。由于即饮消费场景显著回暖，1月次高档及以上啤酒销售增长加快。展望未来，我们重申线下分销渠道的持续反弹将引领国内零售销售额走出低谷，并提振消费品动销状况，成为2023年食品饮料行业展望的基线情景。
　　维持食品饮料行业“跑赢大市”的评级。我们建议投资者应保持关注的投资机会包括：1）国内大型啤酒厂商，2）乳制品产业链上下游龙头公司，与3）部分非酒精饮料公司。我们对华润啤酒（00291 HK）、中国飞鹤（06186 HK）和中国食品（00506 HK）的评级为“买入”。此外，我们推荐青岛啤酒（00168 HK）、蒙牛乳业（02319 HK）、优然牧业（09858HK）、现代牧业（01117 HK）、农夫山泉（09633 HK）及维他奶（00345 HK）。
　　主要风险因素：1）国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期；2）原材料及包装物价格变动超出预期；以及3）食品安全问题。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportConsumerSector-FoodBeverageAndyChen陈思超行业报告消费行业食品饮料85225092665andychengtjascomhk7February2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyWrapMoreConfidentAbout2023RecoveryBased行OnStrongerCNYDemandandSalesTurnoverOutperform业双周报春节期间需求及动销表现强化对2023年复苏的信心跑赢大市报OverthepasttwoweeksthemarkethasbeentradingonChinasrapidreopeningofitseconomyinlinewithourpreviousexpectationhoweverRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReporttheHongKongfoodandbeveragesectorasawholeseemslesssensitiveMaintainedtothisreflectingdivergingmarketviewsfromavaluationperspectiveInourviewatthisstageinvestorsshouldcontinuetofocusmoreon评级跑赢大市维持sub-categoriesthatwillachievestrongerdemandrecoveryduring2023To2bespecificwelikebeernon-alcoholicbeveragecheeseroom-temperatureMSCIHKconsumerstaplesvsHSIyoghurtandliquidmilkproductsBasedonourrecentobservationsandperformancechannelchecktheinventorylevelofdairysub-categorieshasbeenhealthierMSCI港股上市必选消费板块指数及恒生指数表现sincemid-Januaryindicatingrobustgift-givingdemandespeciallyinlower-tierofreturncitiesandruralmarketsduringtheChineseNewYearholidayperiodIn300additionwesawnarrowerpricediscountsoninstantnoodlesandnon-alcoholic200drinksinJanuary2023thaninDecember2022Forthebeersegment100证premiumizationtrendremainsintactDuetothesubstantialreboundin00告on-premiseconsumptionsalesgrowthofthesub-premiumbeerandabove券portfolioacceleratedinJanuaryLookingforwardwereiteratethatthe100研报continuousrecoveryinofflinedistributionchannelswillleadChinasretailsales200究tobottomoutandboostconsumergoodsturnoverwhichisthebaseline究300scenarioforthefoodandbeveragesectoroutlookin2023ResearchReport报研400MaintainOutperformratingforthefoodandbeveragesectorInvestorsFeb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23告HSIIndexMSCIHKConsumerStaplesIndex券shouldkeepfocusingoninvestmentopportunitieson1Chinaslarge-scaleEquitySourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalbreweries2leadingplayersinthedownstreamandupstreamdairyproduct证subsectorand3somenon-alcoholicbeveragecompaniesWehaveBuyratingonChinaResourcesBeer00291HKChinaFeihe06186HKandChinaFoods00506HKBesideswerecommendTsingtaoBrewery00168HKMengniuDairy02319HKYouranDairy09858HKModernDairy01117HKNongfuSpring09633HKandVitasoy00345HKTMajorriskfactors1Weaker-than-expecteddomesticeconomicgrowthandorhouseholdincomegrowth2unexpectedpricemovementsofrawmaterialsa消orpackagingcomponentsand3foodsafetyproblemsb费过去的两周内市场在交易中国经济的快速重启符合我们先前的预期不过港股食品行l饮料板块表现总体上似乎对此并不敏感反映了市场对其估值层面的看法分歧我们认为业投资者现阶段应继续重点关注那些有望在2023年实现更强劲需求复苏的细分品类具体-eBeverageFood-而言我们看好啤酒非酒精饮料奶酪常温酸奶和液态奶产品根据我们近期的调研食和渠道验证自1月中旬乳制品库存水平趋于理想表明春节假期送礼需求转好尤其在品L低线城市与农村市场此外我们见到2023年1月方便面和非酒精饮料的价格折扣相比饮e2022年12月有所收窄啤酒赛道的高端化趋势保持不变由于即饮消费场景显著回暖料1月次高档及以上啤酒销售增长加快展望未来我们重申线下分销渠道的持续反弹将引f领国内零售销售额走出低谷并提振消费品动销状况成为2023年食品饮料行业展望的基线情景tConsumerSectorM维持食品饮料行业跑赢大市的评级我们建议投资者应保持关注的投资机会包括1国内大型啤酒厂商2乳制品产业链上下游龙头公司与3部分非酒精饮料公司我们a对华润啤酒00291HK中国飞鹤06186HK和中国食品00506HK的评级为买r入此外我们推荐青岛啤酒00168HK蒙牛乳业02319HK优然牧业09858gHK现代牧业01117HK农夫山泉09633HK及维他奶00345HKi主要风险因素1国内经济增长或居民收入增长逊于预期2原材料及包装物价格变动超出预期以及3食品安全问题nSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6See1swithleadersindustryperspectiveprospectsincludingearningsmainlyvaluationafromgrowthcyclicaltocyclicalitystrongfromtransitionpotentialshortdespitetermlongandmediumtheindemandandsupplybetweenbalancetightintomovingismarketmilkrawdomesticthestableplatformChinasForfarmingdairyduetosegmentintegrationwithdownstreamleadinggiantsrawmilkwillproducersindustrythatthinkWeimprovementwillbeseeninthenearoutfuturehaveBuyWeinvestmentratingonruledbecannotpoliciesfavorablemoreof2023reboundtoinexpectedwaschildbirthandmarriageMoreovercomehassharemarketofconsolidationforperiodthesoonveryimplementedbewillstandardsnationalnewthesegmentpowdermilktheForHKmregainedgrowthhavesteadymanufacturersposttheinbeveragesandfoodnutritionalupgradeStructuraleconomytheofsalesgoalsGoingforwardweexpecttoseemorevisiblesignsofdemandrecoveryinthefollowingmonthsfromswiftreopenisectorDairyBreweryOurhealthyweefficiencyoperationalimprovingwithsectorexpectTogetherbreweriesofmargingrosssupportwillpressurecostonreliefmarginalchannelsWeexpectthatvolumecontribBeersectorSpringcompaniesshouldgraduallyimprovein2023haveWeBuyratingonbottleacceleratedfromtopAparthighremainsinnovationproductgiantsbeveragesoftForpopularmorebecomingisrecoveryconsumptionthetodueprimarilyoutbottomNon12outlook2023sectorinscebaselinetheisthinkwewhichturnovergoodsconsumerboostandoutbottomtosalesJanuarygrowthsalesconsumptiontheofflinetomajorDueinintactreboundsubstantialremainstrendpremiumizationsegmentbeertheFor2022Decemberinwithcompared2023JanuaryinChinesetheNewYearholidayperiodInadditionwesawnarrowerprbecomefreshersincemidobservationsrecentouronBasedproductsmilkliquidandyoghurtwillachievestrongerdemandrecoveryin2023TospecificbelikewebeernonviewsfromavaluationperspectiveexpectationOverthepasttwoweeksinvestorshavebeenactivelytradingon11the-linegrowthweseesomepositivesonthecostsideAsAssidecosttheonpositivessomeseewegrowthlinelasIn--alcoholicbeveragesectorbeveragealcoholic-termfluctuationsfromthedemandsideduetochallengesinofflinemaindistributionchannelsInUpdateSec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