澳门1月博彩总收入为115.80亿澳门元，同比增长82.5%，大幅高于彭博一致预期的36.5%增幅。1月博彩总收入好于预期，环比上升232.6%，相当于2019年1月博彩总收入（249.42亿澳门元）的46.4%。这也是自2022年2月以来，澳门博彩总收入首次出现同比正增长。
　　我们认为，两阶段的市场情绪升级可支持澳门博彩股价持续复苏。如果我们的论点是正确的，则尽管12月和1月股价飙升，澳门博彩股今年仍有较大的上涨潜力。
　　澳门博彩业第一个目标就是业绩要恢复到2019年的水平，预计2023年下半年或2024年会实现。市场情绪升级第一阶段：我们预计2023年上半年行业业绩总体上将达到或超过市场预期，使得在2023年下半年能达到第一个目标的确定性更高，进而导致股价上涨。一旦实现这一目标，将为市场情绪升级的第二阶段奠定基础；市场将提高预期，预计澳门博彩业绩将超过2019年水平。股价将追上2019年的股价高点。
　　催化剂：我们认为近期（2023年第一季度）业绩只需要符合市场预期就能减少中长期业绩预期的不确定性。如果近期业绩超过市场预期（我们认为可能性不小），第二阶段可能会提前开启。随着中国宏观经济复苏变得更加确定，风险偏好不断增强。
　　风险：市场或下调中国宏观经济预期。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportGamingSectorNoahHudson行业报告博彩行业8675523976684noahhudsongtjascomhk3February2023TableMainInfoJanuaryGamingRevenueBeatUp825YoYWeExpect行Two-PhaseMarketSentimentUpgrade1月博彩收入超预期同比增825预期市场情绪将分两阶段升级业报MacaosJanuarygrossgamingrevenueGGRwasMOP11580billionanincreaseof825YoYmuchhigherthanBloombergconsensusRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告MaintainedSectorReportmedianestimateofa365increaseThebetter-than-expectedJanuaryGGRincreased2326MoMandwasequivalentto464ofJanuary2019评级跑赢大市维持GGRMOP24942billionThiswasalsothefirsttimesinceFebruary2022thatMacaogamingsawapositiveYoYincrease2Wethinkatwo-phasemarketsentimentupgradecouldsupportacontinuingrecoveryinMacaogamingsharepricesIfourthesisisSectorperformancecorrectdespitethesurgeinsharepricesinDecemberandJanuarythereis行业表现stillsignificantupsidepotentialforMacaugamingsharesthisyearreturnThefirsthurdleinsightisforMacaogamingresultstorecoverto20191200levelswhichisexpectedtohappenby2H2023or2024Marketsentiment证upgradephaseoneweexpect1H2023sectorresultstogenerallymeetor700告beatmarketexpectationsleadingtohighercertaintyinpassingthefirst券200hurdleby2H2023inturnleadingtohighersharepricesOncethisis研报achievedthestagewillbesetforphasetwoofthemarketsentiment300究究upgradethemarketwouldraiseexpectationslookingforMacaogamingresultstosurpass2019levelsSharepriceswouldfurtherincreasetoward800ResearchReportFeb-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23报研thehigher2019highsHSIGalaxyEnt告WynnMacauMelcoResorts券CatalystsWethinkthatnear-term1Q2023resultsjustneedtomeetMGMChinaSandsChinaEquitySourceBloomberg证marketexpectationsinordertodecreaseuncertaintyregardingmedium-tolonger-termresultsexpectationsPhasetwocouldbepulledforwardintimeifnear-termresultsbeatmarketexpectationswhichwethinkislikelyIncreasingriskappetiteasChinasmacroeconomicrecoverywillbecomemorecertainRisksMarketmaydowngradeChinamacroeconomicexpectationsTa澳门1月博彩总收入为11580亿澳门元同比增长825大幅高于彭博一致预期的365增幅1月博彩总收入好于预期环比上升2326相当于2019年1月博彩总收b入24942亿澳门元的464这也是自2022年2月以来澳门博彩总收入首次出现博l同比正增长彩e我们认为两阶段的市场情绪升级可支持澳门博彩股价持续复苏如果我们的论点是正确行的则尽管12月和1月股价飙升澳门博彩股今年仍有较大的上涨潜力业LGamingSector澳门博彩业第一个目标就是业绩要恢复到2019年的水平预计2023年下半年或2024e年会实现市场情绪升级第一阶段我们预计2023年上半年行业业绩总体上将达到或超过市场预期使得在2023年下半年能达到第一个目标的确定性更高进而导致股价上涨f一旦实现这一目标将为市场情绪升级的第二阶段奠定基础市场将提高预期预计澳门t博彩业绩将超过2019年水平股价将追上2019年的股价高点M催化剂我们认为近期2023年第一季度业绩只需要符合市场预期就能减少中长期业a绩预期的不确定性如果近期业绩超过市场预期我们认为可能性不小第二阶段可能会提前开启随着中国宏观经济复苏变得更加确定风险偏好不断增强rg风险市场或下调中国宏观经济预期inSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5SeGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanSFigure1510MOPbnMacaothatMoMincrease365aofestimatemedianconsensusBloombergMacaoeRisksMarketcertainmoreresultsbeatmarketexpectationswhichwethinkislikelyregardinguncertaintynearthatthinkWeCatalysts2019levelssurpassonmilestonewithtwoPhasewillphasebesetstagetwoforthemarketofsentimentupgradeuncertaintydriveinvestorspost2H2023increasetoinvestorconfidenceinthesectorincludingincreasingrevenuesEBITDAmarginswillormeetbeatexpecChinaseconomyin2023weexpectthatmilestoneoneachievingweonePhaseworryandthinkweoutbesteamrallydisagreemightoftheWeJanuaryMacaoinsurgetheafterthatworriedbemightinvestorsAdditionallysupplygamingpostnewthe2and2024potentiallytohorizonmilestoneexpectationsfirsttheresultsgamingMacaothisgamingsharesyearforpotentialupsidelargestillisthereJanuaryandDecemberinpricesshareinsurgethedespitecorrectisthesisourtwoathinkWeource10155-5the-lasadmcihhcocreiFebinoccurredwhichhighspandemic209GamingInspectionandandCoordinationBureauGamingofInspectionandwasequivalentto464o464toequivalentwasand63-1tsJanuarygrossgamingrevenueGGRwasMOP11580billionanincreaseanbillionMOP11580wasGGRrevenuegaminggrossJanuaryspagMaca7861ThiswouldinturndrivedriveturninwouldThisthatsharesharehavepricesthatmighttoppedegamingsawpositiveaYoYincreasedecreases558fo37romayTotalGGRLHS681disclaimer-paktaiaiainoMcoaighrsakohiposttheirtobacksharesgamingMacaoofcapitalizationsmarketupphasemarketsentimentupgradecouldsupportacontinuingrecoveryinMacaogamingsharepricessharegamingrecoveryMacaocontinuinginasupportupgradecouldsentimentmarketphaseJanuary27expect1H20231H2023expect680downgradeChinaChinamacroeconomicdowngradeexpectations33SharthatMacaogamingresultswillrecoverto2019levels621medium25aregenerallyexpectedexpectedgenerallyareGGRby2epriceswouldfurthertowardincrease04953507H22BeatExpectationsBeat-2023-aheehmrewlriexettosoknfraagmnrslstoresultsgamingMacaoforlookingexpectationsraisewillmarkettheachievedeem1Q2022termtolongertoetrresultssector496Howeveruncertaintyofreachingthismilestoneisstillrelativelyhighgiven1thelongtimelongthe1givenhighrelativelystillismilestonethisreachingofuncertaintyHowever30aagmncmaycapitalicompanygamingMacao2022FebruarysincetimefirstthealsowasThisbillionMOP24942GGR2019Januaryf107YoYRHSinturnturnin39duringduring1H2023Macao55630-termresultstermruary35leadingleadingisweighingdownpricesshareSAR563Ptorecoverto2019levelsby2H2023or2024whichwhich2024or2H2023bylevels2019torecoverto116825tores-oigmnevrnetdmnseVPaktnlaandmarketVIPdiminishedenvironmentgamingCovidnMrh01hsshfrthsomresnietupgradesentimentmarketofphasefirstth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