事件描述：361度（“公司”）公布了其2022年第四季度运营数据。2022年第四季度361度主品牌产品零售额同比大致持平，童装品牌产品零售额录得低单位数的同比增长。361度整体电商平台零售流水录得约25%的同比增长，双11购物节期间在线销售增长40%以上。在低迷零售环境下，公司销售正增长符合我们预期，并好于其他运动服饰品牌同行。
　　2022年第四季度运营表现彰显韧性。根据管理层，2022年第四季度公司整体零售渠道库销比约5.5倍（正常水平为5.0倍）。库存结构环比略有改善，其中新货占比约75%。零售销售折扣约7折左右，当季货品折扣在8.5折-9折。元旦假期期间，线下终端零售流水同比增长约15%，其中主品牌和童装零售流水分别同比增长11%和25%。随着2023年初以来线下消费客流迅速回暖，公司计划将进一步抓住春节期间提升售罄率的机会，并加大部分高库存地区去库存力度，使库存结构回归正常水平。2022年公司整体门店数量保持净增加的趋势。2022年第四季度童装门店仍然实现净开店。根据近期我们与管理层的交流，公司计划2023年净增加100家主品牌门店，总量控制在5,000-5,500家之间。公司也计划2023年童装门店数量将在2022年2,200家的基础上再增加100家。
　　公司发布新一代中底技术及相关跑鞋产品。在2022年12月26日的公司品牌日活动上,公司推出了新一代中底技术——QU!KCQTECH（CQT碳临界科技）。公司还展示了包括“飞燃II”和“碳速”在内的搭载全新CQT碳临界科技的四款跑鞋产品。性能上，使用了CQT碳临界科技的飞燃II跑鞋推进比超75%，能量反馈率高达88%，并拥有更好的韧性及耐久性。我们相信新一代中底技术推出将有助于公司进一步升级其产品矩阵，缩小与行业龙头的差距。
　　我们对公司2023年销售增速持乐观态度。我们乐观认为公司零售增速将在2023年上半年起重拾增长势头，尽管复苏节奏可能仍不稳定。根据2023年第一、二季度订货会订单反馈情况，我们预计公司2023年收入增速约为15%-20%。我们也预计公司库存和折扣水平将继续改善，并在2023年第二季度回归正常水平。我们认为公司未来会逐步跟上国产运动鞋服龙头的步伐，继续巩固其在大众市场的占有率。我们目前对公司的投资评级为“买入”，每股目标价为4.70港元，目标价相当于9.8倍2023年市盈率。我们预测公司2022-2024年净利润分别为人民币7.29亿元、人民币8.60亿元和人民币9.92亿元。

研究报告全文：股票研究EquityResearchTableTitleFlashNote361DegreesInternational01361HKHansenTang汤瀚森8675523976884快讯361度01361HKhansentanggtjascomhk16January20234TableSummaryQ2022OperationalPerformanceReviewPositiveRetailSalesGrowthShowsResilience快2022年第四季度营运数据点评零售销售正增长彰显韧性讯Whathappened361DegreesInternationaltheCompanyannouncedits4Q2022operationalperformanceInFlashNote4Q2022Retailsalesofthe361Corebrandand361KidsbrandrecordedroughlyflatYoYgrowthandretailsalesofthe361KidsbrandrecordedYoYgrowthoflow-single-digitpercentageOverallretailsalesof361e-commerceplatformrecordedapproximately25YoYgrowthwithonlinesalesgrowthupby40duringtheDouble11ShoppingFestivalSuchpositivesalesgrowthwasinlinewithourexpectationandbetterthanothersportswearbrandpeersamidsluggishretailenvironment4Q2022operationalperformanceshowedresilienceAccordingtothemanagementin4Q2022overallretailchannelinventory-to-salesratiowasaround55xnormallevel50xInventorystructureslightlyimprovedQoQamongwhichseasonalgoodsaccountedfor75Retailchanneldiscountratewasaround30discountrateofseasonalproductswas10-15OfflineretailsalesduringtheNewYearholidayperiodincreasedby15YoYamongwhichretailsalesof361Corebrandand361Kidsbrandincreasedby11and25YoYrespectively证Asofflineconsumertrafficrecoveredrapidlysince2023theCompanyplanstofurtherseizeopportunitiesto券increasesell-throughrateduringtheSpringFestivalandmakegreateffortsindestockinginareaswithhigher研inventorylevelpushinginventorybacktonormallevelsTheCompanysoverallstorenumbermaintainedatrendofnetincreasein2022Storesof361Kidsbrandstillrecordednetincreasein4Q2022Themanagement究告expectsanetincreaseof100361Corebrandstoresin2023withtotalstoresnumberreaching5000-5500报报TheCompanyalsoplanstoincreaseby100361Kidsbrandstoresin2023fromthebasisof2200in2022告究TheCompanyunveiledanewgenerationofmidsoletechnologyandrelatedrunningshoesproductsAtEquityResearchReport研theBrandDayeventon26Dec2022theCompanyintroducedanewgenerationmidsoletechnology-QUKCQTECHCQTTheCompanyalsounveiledfournewrunningshoesincludingFlyingFlameIIandCQT券TabAllSpeedwhicharebasedonthenewCQTtechnologyIntermsofperformanceFlyingFlameIIembeddedleI证withtheCQTtechnologyhasacushioningreboundforceofover75anenergyfeedbackrateofupto88and纺nfo1betterresilienceandresistanceWebelievethatthelaunchofthenewgenerationmidsoletechnologywillhelp织theCompanytofurtherupgradeitsproductmatrixnarrowingthegaptotheindustryleader服装WeareoptimisticabouttheCompanyssalesrecoveryin2023WeareoptimisticthattheCompanysretail行saleswillregainsalesgrowthmomentumstartingfrom1H2023eventhoughthepaceofrecoverycouldbe业erraticAccordingtoordersfeedbackfromthe1Q2023and2Q2023tradefairsweexpecttheCompanysrevenuetogrowby15-20in2023WealsoexpecttheCompanysinventoriesanddiscountlevelstocontinueTextilesApparelTextilesSectorAppareltoimprovetonormallevelsin2Q2023WeexpectthattheCompanywillgraduallycatchupwithotherdomesticsportswearleadersandcontinuetoconsolidateitsmarketshareinthemassmarketOurcurrentinvestmentratingfortheCompanyisBuywithatargetpriceofHK470persharerepresenting98x2023FPERWeforecasttheCompanysnetprofitin2022-2024tobeRMB729millionRMB860millionandRMB992millionTabrespectivelyleInfo2中163外运度输361DegreesInternational01361HK36101361InternationalDegreesSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3361DegreesInternational01361HKTablePageHeader事件描述361度公司公布了其2022年第四季度运营数据2022年第四季度361度主品牌产品零售额同比大致持平童装品牌产品零售额录得低单位数的同比增长361度整体电商平台零售流水录得约25的同比增长双11购物节期间在线销1raMthgiRelbaT售增长40以上在低迷零售环境下公司销售正增长符合我们预期并好于其他运动服饰品牌同行2022年第四季度运营表现彰显韧性根据管理层2022年第四季度公司整体零售渠道库销比约55倍正常水平为50倍库存结构环比略有改善其中新货占比约75零售销售折扣约7折左右当季货品折扣在85折-9折元旦假期期间线下终端零售流水同比增长约15其中主品牌和童装零售流水分别同比增长11和25随着2023年初以来线下消费客流迅速回暖公司计划将进一步抓住春节期间提升售罄率的机会并加大部分高库存地区去库存力度使库存结构回归正常水平2022年公司整体门店数量保持净增加的趋势年第四季度童装门店仍然实现净开店根据近期我们与管理层的交流公司计划年2022202316January2023净增加100家主品牌门店总量控制在5000-5500家之间公司也计划2023年童装门店数量将在2022年2200家的基础上再增加100家公司发布新一代中底技术及相关跑鞋产品在2022年12月26日的公司品牌日活动上公司推出了新一代中底技术QUKCQTECHCQT碳临界科技公司还展示了包括飞燃II和碳速在内的搭载全新CQT碳临界科技的四款跑鞋产品性能上使用了CQT碳临界科技的飞燃II跑鞋推进比超75能量反馈率高达88并拥有更好的韧性及耐久性我们相信新一代中底技术推出将有助于公司进一步升级其产品矩阵缩小与行业龙头的差距我们对公司2023年销售增速持乐观态度我们乐观认为公司零售增速将在2023年上半年起重拾增长势头尽管复苏节奏可能仍2raMthgiRelbaT不稳定根据2023年第一二季度订货会订单反馈情况我们预计公司2023年收入增速约为15-20我们也预计公司库存和折扣水平将继续改善并在2023年第二季度回归正常水平我们认为公司未来会逐步跟上国产运动鞋服龙头的步伐继续巩固其在大众市场的占有率我们目前对公司的投资评级为买入每股目标价为470港元目标价相当于98倍2023年市盈率我们预测公司2022-2024年净利润分别为人民币729亿元人民币860亿元和人民币992亿元01361HK度DegreesInternational361361361FlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of3361DegreesInternational01361HKTablePageHeaderCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral16January2023Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport01361HK2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191度HKSINOHYTEC02402HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDegreesInternational361361DISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of3