研究报告全文：股票研究EquityResearchResearchDepartment研究部1February2023行业报告CriticalSectorDataUpdateSectorReport行业关键数据更新证告券报研究究ResearchReport报研告券Equity证行业关键数据更新CriticalSectorDataUpdateCriticalDataSectorSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page1of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateSectorPetrochemicalsFigure11-YCrudeOilPricesFigure210-YCrudeOilPrices一年国际油价十年国际油价BrentOilWTIOilDubaiOilBrentOilSpotUSbblBrentOilSpotUSbbl150SpotSpotSpotWTIOilSpotUSbblWTIOilSpotUSbbl140DubaiOilSpotUSbbl140YTD05-1708DubaiOilSpotUSbbl130YTDYOY-25-56-36120100wow00-12-48110100mom05-17086090yoy-65-106-94801341241302052wHL707571706050-2040Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23-60SourceBloombergSourceBloombergFigure33-YDomesticGasolineDieselRetailPriceCap三年国内汽油柴油最高零售价1300000GasolineDieselGasolineRMBTonneDieselRMBTonneRMBRMB1200000TonneTonne1100000YTD05051000000YTDYOY5561900000wow0000800000mom0505700000yoy-06-05114561050060000052wHL92868410500000Feb20Aug20Feb21Aug21Feb22Aug22Feb23SourceChinaNDRCSectorNonferrousMetalsFigure41-YGoldPricesDollarIndexFigure510-YGoldPricesDollarIndex一年国际金价和美元指数十年国际金价和美元指数GoldpriceUSDOzDollarIndexRHSGoldpriceUSDOzDollarIndexRHSDollarIndex21001172300120GoldPriceRHS11411520002000YTD56-141111101081700105YTDYOY477019001001051400wow-10041800102951100mom56-149990170080085yoy70599693802051114160050052wHL75162295902007015008720132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page2of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateFigure671-YCopperPricesStockFigure8910-YCopperPricesStock一年铜价格与库存十年铜价格与库存LMECopperPriceUSDTonneLMECopperPriceUSDTonneLMECopperInventoryTonne-RHS1200040000012000LMECopperInventoryTonne-RHS80000011000350000700000LMECopperLMECopper1000010000600000PriceInventory30000080009000500000YTD102-154250000YTDYOY-73NA800060004000002000007000300000wow-10-2440001500006000200000mom102-15420005000100000100000yoy-49-13040005000000106741809252013201420152016201720182019202020212022202352wHLFeb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23717069600SHFECopperpriceRMBTonneSHFECopperpriceRMBTonneSHFECopperInventoryTonne-RHS90000SHFECopperInventoryTonne-RHS45000085000450000800004000004000007500070000350000350000SHFECopperSHFECopper6500060000300000300000PriceInventory5000025000055000250000YTD551021400002000004500020000030000150000YTDYOY-31NA1500003500020000100000wow-060010000025000500001000050000mom55102115000000Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-2320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023yoy-1124687484016795152wHL5449030459SourceBloombergSourceBloombergFigure10111-YAluminumPricesFigure121310-YAluminumPricesStockStock一年铝价格与库存十年铝价格与库存LMEAluminumPriceUSDTonneLMEAluminumPriceUSDTonneLMEAluminumInventoryTonne-RHSLMEAluminumInventoryTonne-RHSLME50006000000AluminumLMEAluminum4420200000045005000000PriceInventory1800000400039201600000YTD112-9535001400000400000034203000YTDYOY-154NA12000002500300000029201000000wow-05682000800000200000024201500mom112-956000004000001000yoy-128-48319201000000200000500384988097552wHL14200002114271450Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-2320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023SHFEAluminumpriceRMBTonneSHFEAluminumpriceRMBTonneSHFEAluminumInventoryTonne-RHSSHFEAluminumInventoryTonne-RHS300001200000SHFE26000400000AluminumSHFEAluminum350000250001000000PriceInventory2400030000020000800000YTD2513612200025000015000600000YTDYOY-120NA20000200000wow-01001500001000040000018000mom25136110000050002000001600050000yoy-114-152001400002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202323865348315Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-2352wHL1722091242SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page3of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateFigure14151-YZincPricesStockFigure161710-Yand10-YZincPricesStock一年锌价格与库存十年及十年锌价格与库存LMEZincPriceUSDTonneLMEZincPriceUSDTonneLMEZincInventoryTonne-RHSLMEZincInventoryTonne-RHS510017000050001400000LMEZincLMEZinc450046001500001200000PriceInventory40001300001000000YTD140-4614100350011000030008000003600YTDYOY-83NA250090000600000wow-18-7431002000700001500400000mom140-4612600500001000200000500yoy-59-8892100300000044991549501600100002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202352wHLFeb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23269717250SHFEZincpriceRMBTonneSHFEZincInventoryTonne-RHSSHFEZincpriceRMBTonne35000350000SHFEZincInventoryTonne-RHS3200020000030000300000SHFEZincSHFEZinc30000180000PriceInventory2500025000028000160000YTD3111632600014000020000200000YTDYOY24000120000-31NA1500015000022000100000wow-0800200008000010000100000mom31116318000600001600040000500050000yoy-36-521140002000000120000286451793582013201420152016201720182019202020212022202352wHLFeb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-232154017931SourceBloombergSourceBloombergFigure181-YNickelPricesStockFigure1910-YNickelPricesStock一年镍价格与库存十年镍价格与库存LMENickelPriceUSDTonneLMENickelPriceUSDTonneLMENickelInventoryTonne-RHSLMENickelInventoryTonne-RHSLMENickelLMENickel5600010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portUSDMoMExportExportImport25Import2020yoyRMB-0522061015yoyUSD-99-75-89010ChinaChinaChina-10Monthly5MonthlyMonthlyExport-20ExportImport0Importmom-5-30320420RMB-40mom-10370825USDNoteLatestdataforfigures37-38are122022SourceChinaCustomsSourceChinaCustomsFigure391-YCCBFIFigure407-YCCBFI一年中国沿海散货运价指数七年中国沿海散货运价指数ChinaCostalBulkFreightIndexCCBFI18001800ChinaCostalBulkFreightIndexCCBFIChinaCostalBulkFreight16001600IndexCCBFIYTD-12414001400YTDYOY-13612001200wow-0310001000mom-85800800yoy-57600600144352wHL201620172018201920202021202220231032SourceShanghaiShippingExchangeSourceShanghaiShippingExchangeFigure411-YSCFICCFIFigure426-YSCFICCFI一年出口集装箱运价指数六年出口集装箱运价指数ShanghaiContainerizedFreightIndexSCFIShanghaiContainerizedFreightIndexSCFIShanghaiChina5500ChinaContainerizedFreightIndexCCFIContainerizedContainerized63005000ChinaContainerizedFreightIndexCCFIFreightIndexFreightIndex4500SCFICCFI53004000YTD-798-65035004300YTDYOY-13628300033002500wow-28-43200023001500mom-82-10310001300yoy-798-65650005110358830052wHL2016201720182019202020212022202311231339Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23SourceShanghaiShippingExchangeSourceShanghaiShippingExchangeSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page8of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateFigure431-YThroughputStatisticsFigure445-YThroughputStatistics一年港口吞吐量统计五年港口吞吐量统计PortsThroughputYoYContainerThroughputYoYPortsThroughputYoYContainerThroughputYoYVolumeofContainer1240FreightHandledThroughput1030YTDYOY07428620mom-06-14410yoy259720137934026360052wHL201720182019202020212022105695019440-2-10-4-6-20-30NoteLatestdataforfigures43-44are122022SourceChinaMinistryofTransportSourceChinaMinistryofTransportFigure451-YTransportationStatisticsFigure465-YTransportationStatistics一年公路旅客货运量统计五年公路旅客货运量统计PassengerFreightFreightPassengerNumberYoYFreightVolumeYoYPassengerNumberYoYFreightVolumeYoYNumberVolumeTurnoverFreightTurnoverYoYYTDFreightTurnoverYoY30200YOY-303-55-33720mom-16230815010yoy-368-67-20100052w423506204450HL2620938237100202018201920202021202250304010050150NoteLatestdataforfigures45-46are122022SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSectorEnergyOperationFigure476-Y5500KcalThermalCoalFigure483-YCoalInventoryatFOBatQinhuangdaoQinhuangdao六年秦皇岛5500大卡动力煤平仓价三年秦皇岛煤炭库存QHDQ5500YTD00YTDYOY-02wow00201720182019202010KtQHDInventory202120222023900700mom00RMBtyoy-1380060076050052wHL700730400600300QHDInventory500200YTD65400YTDYOY344100wow343000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23mom65yoy48461052wHL407SourceCCTDSourceCCTDSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page9of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateFigure495-YAustraliaNEWCThermalCoalSpotPrice五年澳大利亚纽卡斯尔动力煤现货价格AustraliaNEWCThermalCoalUSDtSpotPriceAustraliaNEWCthermalcoalspotpriceYTD-24480YTDYOY886440400wow-12360mom-57320yoy807280452852wHL240226420016012080400Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23SSourceCCTDFigure505-YMonthlyChinaPowerFigure515-YMonthlyChinaConsumptionyoyUtilizationHoursforThermalCapacity五年中国月度用电量增长同比五年中国火电装机月度利用小时MonthlyPowerConsumptionyoy201720182019202020212022HoursYTDYOY3620172018201920202021202230500mom14025yoy-462045016952wHL-461540010MonthlyThermal5Capacity350Utilization0YTDYOY-165300mom11710yoy-6715250JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec454JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec52wHL302NoteLatestdataforfigures50-51are122022SourceNationalEnergyAdministrationSourceChinaElectricityCouncilSectorPropertyFigure521-YDomesticPropertyFigure5310-YDomesticPropertySectorSectorYoYDataAccumulativeYoYDataAccumulative一年商品房投资新开工及销售增长十年商品房投资新开工及销售增长累计同比累计同比CommodityRealEstateNew-startsRealEstateInvestmentYoYPropertyNew-startsGFAYoYInvestmentGFARealEstateInvestmentYoY50SalesGFACommodityPropertySalesGFAYoYNew-startsGFAYoY40CommodityPropertySalesAmountYoY22CommodityPropertySalesGFAYoYResidentialPropertySalesGFAYoYCommodityPropertySalesAmountYoY30ResidentialPropertySalesAmountYoYYTDYOY-100-394-24312ResidentialPropertySalesGFAYoY20ResidentialPropertySalesAmountYoYmom-891324482100yoy-122-443-315-8-10CommodityResidential-18Residential-20PropertyPropertyProperty-28-30SalesSalesSalesGFAAmountAmount-38-40-48-50YTDYOY-267-268-283Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-222013201420152016201720182019202020212022mom493385456yoy-277-315-263NoteLatestdataforfigures52-53are122022SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page10of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateFigure541-YASPofCommodityFigure5510-YASPofCommodityPropertiesandYoYMonthlyPropertiesandYoYAccumulative一年商品房销售均价及同比增长月度十年商品房销售均价及同比增长年度累计RMBsqmRMBsqmASPof1200012120008Commodity61011500Properties100001100048280001050060YTDASPRMBsqm978510000-2600049500MonthlyASPRMBsqm9747-429000YTDASPYoY-434000-685000-8MonthlyASPYoY1620008000-2-107500-120-420132014201520162017201820192020202120227000-14Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22ASPofCommodityPropertiesSoldLHSASPofCommodityPropertiesSoldLHSASPofCommodityPropertiesSo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nRMBBn18003503501000ChinaRetail1600300300800CommodityE-commerce14002502506001200200YTDYOY621000150200400YoY44800100150200600501000040000MoM-151200-5050-2000-1000-400ChinaRetailServiceE-commerce3M204M205M203M214M215M216M217M218M219M213M224M225M226M227M228M229M226M207M208M209M204M205M206M208M209M203M215M216M217M218M219M213M224M225M226M227M228M229M223M207M204M2111M2012M2010M2111M2112M2110M2210M2011M2212M221-2M201-2M211-2M2210M2012M2010M2111M2112M2111M2212M2211M2010M221-2M201-2M211-2M22YTDYOY-85CommodityE-commerceGMVYoYServiceE-commerceGMVYoYYoY-105MoM188NoteLatestdataforfigures71-72are122022SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaGuotaiSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure73PercentageofOnlineShoppingforPhysicalGoods实物商品网购销售额占比Percentageofonlineshoppingforphysicalgoods30YoY2725272MoM01201510503M204M205M203M214M215M216M217M218M219M213M224M225M226M207M208M209M206M227M228M229M2210M2011M2012M2010M2111M2112M2110M2211M2212M221-2M201-2M211-2M22PercentageofOnlineShoppingforPhysicalGoodsNoteLatestdataforfigure73is122022SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalSectorPharmaceuticalBiotechnologyFigure74GlobalNewlyConfirmedFigure75VaccineDosesper100CasesandNewlyDeathsPeopleinMajorCountries全球新增确诊病例及死亡病例主要国家每100人中的总注射剂数4000000DailyNewConfirmedCases7-DayAverage17000330WorldUSUKDailyNewFranceGermanyChinaDailyNewDeaths7-DayAverageRHS300LocationConfirmed7-DayAverageWoW3500000IsraelKoreaIndiaBrazilJapanCases12000270Global04716630003000000240USA6819242181-29725000002107000UK02182-530180200000015020001500000120901000000-300060500000300-80000SourceOurWorldinDataGuotaiJunanSourceOurWorldinDataGuotaiJunanInternationalInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page14of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateFigure76NewlyConfirmedCasesandFigure77NewlyConfirmedCasesandNewlyDeathsintheUSNewlyDeathsintheUK美国新增确诊病例及死亡病例英国新增确诊病例及死亡病例90000040002500001700LocationNewDeaths7-DayAverageWoWDailyNewConfirmedCases7-DayAverageDailyNewConfirmedCases7-DayAverageDailyNewDeaths7-DayAverageRHSDailyNewDeaths7-DayAverageRHSGlobal01334-412980000035001500700000200000USA1132719511-03630001300UK204937135-12436000001100250015000050000090020004000007001500100000300000500100020000050000300100000500100000-100SourceOurWorldinDataGuotaiJunanSourceOurWorldinDataGuotaiJunanInternationalInternationalFigure785-YChinaGrowthRateofFigure795-YAntibioticIntermediatesValue-AddedofPharmaceuticalPricesIndustryAccumulative五年中国医药制造业增加值增长速度五年抗生素中间体价格ChinaGrowthRateofValue-AddedofPharmaceutical50025000RMBKg6-APAIndustryAccumulative7-ADCA400mom03ppt7-ACAEnzymaticMethod200004-AAyoy-282ppt300GCLEExported12952wHL-43200150001007-ACAGCLE6-APA7-ADCAEnzymatic4-AA10000Exported00MethodYTDYoY26417996-65719-1005000mom0000-2200-25-200yoy8867-83-2091630037004800550021500587152wHLDec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Apr-18Apr-19Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Aug-18Dec-18Aug-19Dec-19Aug-20Dec-20Aug-21Dec-21Aug-22Dec-22330044004400170003579Dec-17NoteLatestdataforfigures78-79are122022SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSourceWINDNo3-72019datafor4-AAGCLEExporteddatawasnotavailablefrom122018to092019Figure805-YChengduTraditionalFigure815-YDomesticVitaminsChineseMedicinalMaterialsPricePricesIndex五年中国成都中药材价格指数五年国内维生素价格ChengduTraditionalChineseMedicinal16000VAVB1RMBKg250VB280VB6MaterialsPriceIndexVCPowderVD3YTDYoY16514000VEVK3MSB96230wow0212000mom19yoy165210100002437452wHL8000211041906000VB2VCVK3170VAVB180VB6PowderVD3VEMSB964000YTD-630-335-96-217-421-482-144-138YoY1502000wow-27000000000000-3400mom-37-31-29-22-10600-58-82130Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23yoy-629-333-83-221-425-474-155-17652w2425165092514003659509001950HL900110082510902105007351400SourceMinistryofCommerceinthePeoplesSourceChinaFeedIndustryAssociationRepublicofChinaSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page15of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateFigure823-YAnalgesic-AntipyreticBulkFigure833-YACEIandSartansBulkDrugsPricesDrugsPrices三年解热镇痛类原料药价格三年普利类与沙坦类原料药价格Aceta-Metami-IbuprofenminophenzoleNaproxenAspirinCaffeineRMBKgIbuprofenLHSAcetaminophenLHSRMBKgLisinoprilLHSTelmisartanLHSYTDYoY26287160136146972MetamizoleLHSAspirinLHSCaptoprilRHSEnalaprilMaleateRHS300064003200018000mom333na00005914CaffeineLHSNaproxenRHSIrbesartanRHSValsartanRHS620016000yoy26329-3600-325-22325002700024007009806250400235060001400052wHL200058002200017750092062502551800120005600EnalaprilIrbe-Val-Telmi-150017000100005400CaptoprilLisinoprilMaleatesartansartansartan8000YTDYoY25-140000236410005200120006000mom00000000000050005007000yoy000000-231603848004000625024000825064007250135002000200052wHL00460062502400082506250625013000Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22NoteLatestdataforfigures82-83are122022SourceWINDSourceWINDNo7-92018dataforValsartanSectorPulpPaperLightIndustryFigure843-YInternationalWoodPulpPrices三年国际木浆价格SoftwoodRMBtonHardwoodRMBtonRMBImportedBleachedSoftwoodPulpPriceYTD05-26ton8000ImportedBleachedHardwoodPul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aimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page19of24CriticalSectorDataUpdateSectorConstructionEngineeringFigure1041-YTransportationFAIFigure1054-YTransportationFAI一年各项交通固定资产投资增长累计同四年各项交通固定资产投资增长累计同比比InlandRailwayCumulativeYoYRailwayHighwayRiverRailwayCumulativeYoYHighwayCumulativeYoYHighwayCumulativeYoYYTDyoy-5191140InlandRiverCumulativeYoYInlandRiverCumulativeYoYCoastalAreaCumulativeYoY233157140CoastalAreaCumulativeYoY52wHL30Total-ExcludeRailwayCumulativeYoY120-6909-51Total-ExcludeRailwayCumulativeYoY251002080Total-15CoastalExclude6010AreaRailway40520YTDyoy639200191148-552wHL-20-14001-10-40-15-60-202018-122019-122020-122021-122022-12Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22NoteLatestdataforrailwayis122022forHighwaySourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaChinaSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaInlandRiverCoastalAreaTotal-ExcludeRailwayareRailwayCorporationChinaRailwayCorporation112022Figure1061-YChinaFAIFigure10710-YChinaFAI一年全国各产业固定资产投资增长累计同十年全国各产业固定资产投资增长累计同比比TotalPrimarySecondaryTertiaryTotalChinaFAICumulativeYoYTotalChinaFAICumulativeYoYChinaIndustryIndustryIndustryPrimaryIndustryCumulativeYoY80PrimaryIndustryCumulativeYoYSecondaryIndustryCumulativeYoYSecondaryIndustryCumulativeYoYYTDyoy51021033025TertiaryIndustryCumulativeYoYTertiaryIndustryCumulativeYoY6052w122911969520HL4902101214015201005-200-40Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NoteLatestdataforfigures106-107are122022SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSectorConsumerRetailingFigure10810-YMonthlySocialRetailFigure109MonthlyComparisonofSalesYoYTotalRetailSalesGrowthAccumulative十年社会消费品零售总额月度同比社会消费品零售总额月度累计增速对比RetailSalesGrowth20122013201440402015201620170Monthly2018201920213520222020RHSYTDYOY-02303mom-013062025yoy-18209671052wHL1511112010Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16Dec17Dec18Dec19Dec20Dec21Dec2215510180JulAprOctJanJunMarFebAugSepNovDec205May2130NoteLatestdataforfigures108-109are122022SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaSeethelastpagefordisclaimerCriticalSectorDataUpdate行业关键数据更新1February2023Page20of24