海天国际(01882 HK):宏观环境转好带动需求回升，上调至“买入”
　　评级：买入   6-18m目标价: HK$26.90
　　分析员：白舸   报告日期: 2023-01-20
　　报告摘要
　　上调至“买入”评级，给予目标价26.90港元。我们预测海天国际（“公司”）2022/2023/2024年的股东净利润分别同比增长-25.4%、24.5%、11.6%，公司2022/2023/2024年每股盈利分别为人民币1.427元、人民币1.776元、人民币1.982元。我们目标价对应16.2倍/13.0倍/11.7倍的2022-2024年市盈率和2.2倍2022年市净率。我们认为随着中国房地产政策及防疫政策的调整，下游需求或将在2023年实现复苏，并改善公司2023年业绩表现。维持“收集”评级，给予目标价11.19港元。我们预测公司2022/2023/2024年的股东净利润分别同比增长18.8%、27.9%、20.3%，公司2022/2023/2024年每股盈利分别为人民币0.516元、人民币0.658元、人民币0.790元。我们目标价对应19.1倍/15.0倍/12.5倍的2022-2024年市盈率和2.2倍2022年市净率。
　　我们预计公司2023年业绩将显著反弹。随着中国宏观政策调整，中国经济在2023年将快速复苏。房地产行业将逐渐改善，带动下游行业对注塑机的需求。我们认为公司作为注塑机行业龙头将取得好于行业平均的增长。
　　公司积极布局海外市场，海外交付能力持续提升。公司持续布局海外制造基地，以增强其国际竞争力。尽管2023年海外需求存在不确定风险，但从长期看，公司积极参与全球市场有助于公司抢占全球市场份额，分散市场风险。
　　催化剂：下游需求复苏、原材料价格下行。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleEquityResearchResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus26January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变ImprovementintheMacroHaitian01882HKEnvironmentHasledtoRecoveryinHK2690BuyYInternationalDemandUpgradetoBuy宏观环境转好带动需求回升上调至买海天国际01882HKHK2690买入是入证Appendices告ChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports券后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版报研究究HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance报研3100014000告29000券EquityResearchReport2700012000证2500010000230002100080001900017000600015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover220446518295133750057恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE748358234112242722273国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4568792673867500034883882科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEwasrecordedasatJan19Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of5MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsHaitianInternational01882HKImprovementintheMacroEnvironmentHasledtoRecoveryinDemandUpgradetoBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK2690AnalystAlexBaiReportDate2023-01-20SummaryUpgradetoBuywithTPofHK2690WeforecastHaitianInternationalstheCompanyshareholdersnetprofitin202220232024toincreaseYoYby-254245and116respectivelyWeforecasttheCompanysearningspersharein202220232024tobeRMB1427RMB1776andRMB1982respectivelyOurTPrepresents162x130x117x2022-2024PEratioand22x2022PBratioWebelievethatwithadjustmentsinChinasrealestatepoliciesandlocalCovidepidemicpreventionpoliciesdownstreamdemandmayrecoverin2023andimproveperformancein2023WeexpecttheCompanysperformancetoreboundsignificantlyin2023WiththeadjustmentinChinasmacropolicyChinaseconomywillrecoverrapidlyin2023TherealestateindustrywillgraduallystabilizedrivingdemandforinjectionmoldingmachinesindownstreamindustriesWebelievethattheCompanyasaleaderintheinjectionmoldingmachineindustrywillachievebettergrowththantheindustryaverageTheCompanyisactivelydeployinginoverseasmarketsanditsoverseasdeliverycapabilitiescontinuetoimproveTheCompanycontinuestodeployoverseasmanufacturingbasestoenhanceitsinternationalcompetitivenessAlthoughthereareuncertainrisksinoverseasdemandin2023inthelongruntheCompanysactiveparticipationintheglobalmarketwillhelptheCompanyseizeglobalmarketshareanddiversifymarketrisksCatalystsDownstreamdemandrecoveryrawmaterialpricedropsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of5MorningResearchFocusTableFocusChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告海天国际01882HK宏观环境转好带动需求回升上调至买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK2690分析员白舸报告日期2023-01-20报告摘要上调至买入评级给予目标价2690港元我们预测海天国际公司202220232024年的股东净利润分别同比增长-254245116公司202220232024年每股盈利分别为人民币1427元人民币1776元人民币1982元我们目标价对应162倍130倍117倍的2022-2024年市盈率和22倍2022年市净率我们认为随着中国房地产政策及防疫政策的调整下游需求或将在2023年实现复苏并改善公司2023年业绩表现维持收集评级给予目标价1119港元我们预测公司202220232024年的股东净利润分别同比增长188279203公司202220232024年每股盈利分别为人民币0516元人民币0658元人民币0790元我们目标价对应191倍150倍125倍的2022-2024年市盈率和22倍2022年市净率我们预计公司2023年业绩将显著反弹随着中国宏观政策调整中国经济在2023年将快速复苏房地产行业将逐渐改善带动下游行业对注塑机的需求我们认为公司作为注塑机行业龙头将取得好于行业平均的增长公司积极布局海外市场海外交付能力持续提升公司持续布局海外制造基地以增强其国际竞争力尽管2023年海外需求存在不确定风险但从长期看公司积极参与全球市场有助于公司抢占全球市场份额分散市场风险催化剂下游需求复苏原材料价格下行Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of5MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Com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