我们预计2023年负债端将承压。随着保险普惠化的持续推进，我们预计2023年商业寿险需求将因替代效应而承压。我们预计供应将面临来自渠道和产品方面的不利因素。在渠道方面，我们预计监管收紧和收入减少将导致代理人退出，人力队伍将进一步缩减。在产品方面，由于未来可能出现费差损和利差损，我们预计增额终身寿的销售将难以持续。2023年一季度新业务价值增长将会受到强劲的开门红的推动，但由于高费用投放策略将拖累净利润，后续增长难以为继。
　　资产表现预计将成为2023年保险股表现的主要驱动力。IFRS 9预计将于2023年实施，将导致利润波动比现行IAS 39下的波动更大。因此，我们预计保险公司将增加对高股息股票的配置，以稳定其利润表。我们预计2023年经济将因防疫政策优化而逐步复苏，带动股市上行，利好保险公司资产端表现。
　　上调行业评级至“跑赢大市”。我们预计2023年保险公司的基本面仍将低迷。但是，鉴于保险股的估值倍数处于历史低位，我们预计潜在的强劲开门红和复苏的资本市场将创造投资机会。上调行业评级至“跑赢大市”，推荐投资端弹性高于同业的中国人寿（02628 HK）和受益于政策支持下地产股复苏的中国平安（02318 HK）。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNon-BankFinanceSectorFrancoLi李炜行业报告非银金融行业85225097204francoligtjascomhk16December2022TableMainInfoAssetPerformanceWillBetheKeyDriverin2023行Outperform资产端表现将是2023年的主要驱动力跑赢大市业报Weexpectliabilityperformancetobeunderpressurein2023AsinclusiveinsuranceplanscontinuestobepromotedweexpectdemandforRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformUpgraded告SectorReportcommerciallifeinsurancetobeunderpressurein2023duetothesubstitutioneffectWeexpectsupplytofaceheadwindsfrombothchannelandproduct评级跑赢大市上调sidesIntermsofchannelsweexpectafurtherdeclineinagencyworkforceasagentswillexitduetotightenedregulationanddecreasingincomeIn2termsofproductsweexpectthatsalesofwholelifeproductswithincreasingInsurancesectorPEVdeathbenefitstobeunsustainableduetopotentialfeedeficitsandinterest保险行业PEVratedeficitsinthefutureNBVgrowthin1Q23islikelytobedrivenbystrong17xPEV5YAVG1SD-1SDjump-startcampaignsbuttobeunstainablelaterashighmarketingexpense15strategieswilldragdownnetprofit13Assetperformanceisexpectedtobethemaindriverofinsurance11stocksperformancein2023IFRS9isexpectedtobeimplementedin202309证leadingtomorevolatilenetincomethanthatunderthecurrentIAS39Thus07告weexpectinsurancecompaniestoincreasetheirallocationofhigh-dividend05券stockstostabilizetheirincomestatementsWeexpecttheeconomyto03研报graduallyrecoverthankstoloosenedCovidpolicydrivingupequitymarketsJun-18Jun-19Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22究Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22究andbenefitingassetperformanceofinsurancecompaniesin2023Dec-17SourceBloombergResearchReport报研UpgradeindustryratingtoOutperformWeexpectinsurancecompany告fundamentalstobesluggishin2023Howevergiventhatthevaluation券HK-listedChinainsurersYTDstockEquitymultiplesofinsurancestocksareathistoriclowlevelsweexpectthatpriceperformance证potentialstrongjump-startcampaignsandrecoveringcapitalmarketswill香港中资保险年初至今股价回报createinvestmentopportunityUpgradeindustryratingtoOutperformwe300recommendChinaLifeInsurance02628HKwhoismoreHSIIndexPingAnChinaLifeinvestment-sensitivethanitspeersandPingAnInsurance02318HKwhich200CPICNCIwillbenefitfromrecoveringstocksinthepropertysectorthankstosupportive100realestatepolicies00T100a我们预计年负债端将承压随着保险普惠化的持续推进我们预计年商业寿20232023200险需求将因替代效应而承压我们预计供应将面临来自渠道和产品方面的不利因素在渠b300非道方面我们预计监管收紧和收入减少将导致代理人退出人力队伍将进一步缩减在产400银l品方面由于未来可能出现费差损和利差损我们预计增额终身寿的销售将难以持续2023金e年一季度新业务价值增长将会受到强劲的开门红的推动但由于高费用投放策略将拖累净500Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22融利润后续增长难以为继行SourceBloombergL资产表现预计将成为2023年保险股表现的主要驱动力IFRS9预计将于2023年实施业SectorBankFinance-将导致利润波动比现行下的波动更大因此我们预计保险公司将增加对高股息IAS39e股票的配置以稳定其利润表我们预计2023年经济将因防疫政策优化而逐步复苏带fNon动股市上行利好保险公司资产端表现t上调行业评级至跑赢大市我们预计2023年保险公司的基本面仍将低迷但是鉴M于保险股的估值倍数处于历史低位我们预计潜在的强劲开门红和复苏的资本市场将创造投资机会上调行业评级至跑赢大市推荐投资端弹性高于同业的中国人寿02628HKa和受益于政策支持下地产股复苏的中国平安02318HKrginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4companthofdesignfeewThuswidespreadbeenhasbenefitbeunsustainableduetotodueexitcontrolcostsandproposedCBIRCInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionSinsuranceassuchBesidesproductsmanagementwealthpoormarketcapitaltheofbackdropagainstinsurancecommercialofgrowthpeoplearepopulationagingtoDueinflation2023inpressureinclusiveAsinsuranceinsuranceLifeLbenefitingbenefitingexpectWewillwhichlowerofvolatilityPingAnexpectWestatementsfinancialitsinreflectedbeenalreadyInsurancetheimplementationimplementedsimultaneouslyinwhich2023requirestheirallocationincreasestandardnewthisofimplementationatassetsarederecognizedasrecognizedarethanincomenetTheAssdowndragmarketcompaniesdownturnWSeiabilityperformanceupplyeeexpectefairdeficitsinthelongtermlongtheindeficitsthisexpectedbeperformancetoetthemaindriverinsuranceofstockInternationalFinancialReportingStandardsnuacrmiesugsi2022insluggishremainedinsuranceeslasvalueexpectationeexpectthesurrenderriskrisksurrendertheexpecteieswillfaceheadwindsfromfromheadwindsfacewillcanbetreatedasshortastreatedbecansweexpectthatdemandforcommercialhealthcareandelderlycarewillcareelderlyandhealthcarecommercialfordemandthatexpectwetHuiminbaoproductweexpectexpectwehasbeenhaspagnetprofitnetdecreasingincomedecreasingfocusedfocusedonproductsandservices0assetwillwillneChinas2318ewsethroughinsuranceinsuranceefoincreasetheirincreasethatbelowerthanbrproducttotoatieringsystemtolimitproducttypesaninexperiencedagentcansellcanagentinexperiencedantypesproductlimittosystemtieringausinessperformancedisclaimerthbackedbackedbylocalgovernmentHKInessenceIndemandsaofIFRSsetlongatvailableunderpressureunderandeconomytograduallyrecoverrecovergraduallytoeconomyHoweverandCBIRCheightenedscrutinyoverscrutinyCBIRCheightenedandnidvdapninplanspensionindividualandprofitunderhasisisthatthatofpotentialpotentialfeedeficitsandinterestratedeficitssthusWhileunderWhileIFRS9someAFSassetsunderIAS39likelypressure2023underinbetoplanhighvfhdcienlongindeclinetheIfitsitsimplementedIFRS9IFRSimplemented-17alueNBV-termdemandforinsuranceinsurancefordemandOntheotherhandothertheOnforormarketingexpensesmarketingthefinancialstatementsfinancialisunlikelytoisstopartiallyoffsetthevolatility-willIn-weexpectNBVgrowthtobeunstainableafter1Q231Q23afterunstainablebetogrowthNBVexpectwe-dividendstocksstocksdividendofinsurancecompaniesinsuranceofaffectnotwillchangesvaluefairwhichofassetsAFSsaleosFVTPLlosstermsavingtermcontinuetobepromoteddemanddemandpromotedbetocontinueproductsproductsorientedassumedtermsofproductoftermsscurrentInternationalAccountingStandardsIAS39IASStandardsAccountingInternationalcurrentCBIRCbeofthofandwillleadtoleadwillohhneadrdcsidesproductandchannelbothpartunforforetotransitionsutialasustainableiallyduetodueiallycommissionrateewasmainlydrivenbydrivenmainlywasgrowscommercialinsuranceinsurancecommercialbeinreleasedreleasedregulationsonthesproductandlowandreturnwhichactuarialassumptionactuarialproductowiharaucagsilaffectwillchangesvaluefairwhichofssustainutodueinmorevolatilenetincomenetvolatilemoremostinsurancecompaniesusetheupperlimitofregulatoryinterestrateforthetheforrateinterestregulatoryoflimituppertheusecompaniesinsurancemostSubjectedSubjectedto-yoysinceemilsotneitefuturetheincontinuesyieldstermPtopromotesuchproductsstheirequitytomeetmeettheirdemandforhealthsIFRSIFRS9savingsilotneoepromotedbetocontinuewilltheweexpectweinin1Q23butdroplateredNAVstobebetothes2018aheadofitspeersthefairvaluechangesofitsinvestmentitsofchangesvaluefairthepeersitsofahead2018thankstoloosenedloosenedtothanksfheadwindswhenclientssurrenderclientswhenliabilitysidethe-substitutsaewataaeetproductsmanagementwealthbasedin2023inshigherthanhigherproductsthesecausedbyIFRS9rdcswithproductsThusThuswisfromfromeunoohriacaproductsfinancialotherofreturnsstrictstrictregulationssupplyportfolioexpectedexpectedtobeimplementedin2023thatcustomercustomerisbasedonisbasedotherfinancialproductsotherionsleadingtosalesofsalesIofofthebalancesheeteeexpectafurtherdeclineromromn2022poorperformancepoor2022nsOntheonehandeffectInsuranceInsurancethatthatsellingsellingandmarketingtostabilizetheirincomestatementincometheirtostabilizeforcommerciallifeinsuranceinsurancelifecommercialforin2023inbothandstrengthenedanddemandforinsurancewealthmanagementproductsproductsmanagementwealthinsurancefordemandnemochanneloftermsIndrivingthejumpgassumedwholelifeproductlifewholecauseduaranteedperformance2023inAsinvestorsbecamemoreriskaverseamidmarketCmanageareonthetheproductstheovidpotentialinterestpotentialratedeficitriskscaredemandtobenefitfromtheimplementationofIFRS17IFRSofimplementationthefrombenefittoTablePageHeaderalsoalsowithrequiredtobeThereforewThereforewealthmanagementandbypolicivsmnyieldinvestmentassetsideinashighmarkethighasmentofmentforforinsuranceproductsbeunderpressureaspressureunderbeHuiminbaowholelifeproductreturnactuarialassumptionactuarialusiuineffectsubstitutionandtoreflectmarketriskWeexpectnsupplyandtheiesBesidesUnderIAS39manyfinancialassetsfinancialmany39IASUnder-insurancediigpqiymarketequityupdrivingstartcampaignstoperformrequestedinsurancecompaniestocompaniesinsurancerequestedoperationssthenoestatementincomeineexpectinsurancecompaniestocompaniesinsuranceexpectewillinthewithincreasingdeathbenefitdeathincreasingwithsofofthebalancesheetragencyworkforceasagentsWPnenwWPrulesWMPnewunderWMPiareecognizedasriskofofriskequitymarketequity2022nincreaseincomestatementuntilAFSuntilstatementincomeingspendinginglikelytotolikely惠民保thatthatmissleadingtomorevolatileDemandDemandeducationofofmortalitycivdbyachieveds-sieyobetolikelyissNonsellingsellingdemandagentswithincreasingdeathaffectingIFRS17willalsobewillalso17IFRShnBnigandBankingChinaandswsinclusiveproductsinclusive-rdalrecovergraduallyleadingtohighertoleadingakiacSectorFinanceBankasasalsorestrictedaassetsmeasuredsavThusslowdiseasesanddiseasescommercialforththatdraggeddowndraggedtotonthusandstrategiesingForexampleforinsurancefore-sconsumerscommercialcosteAsswinsuranceinsuranceproducteeexpectIn2022PagePagebeyondPingAnssunderhealthhavehaveandands2thethewillwilltoofofs42nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportNon-BankFinanceSector非银金融行业16December2022HKrecommendwillmarketscapitalrecoveringandarecampaignsstocksinsuranceofmultiplesvaluationthethatgivenUpgradeinsideinvestment2023InsuranceLifeChinaHKininvestmentyieldeperformancestockofinsurancedrivermaintheyieldinvestmenttotalSeSourceSourceBloombeWeightedAverageSimpleAveragePlcPrudentialLtdAiaGroupCorpManulifeFinancialInsuranPCZhonganOnlineCoLifeInsuranceChinaGrInsuranceChinaPacificCasualtyPropertyPiccPingCoGroupInsuranceAnCoGroupReinsuranceChinaCLifeInsuranceNewChinaChinaTaipingHoldInsuranceCoGrouInsurancePeopleSCompanyTableSourceFigureewhichwillwhichthPingAnInsuranceInsurancePingAne-1Bloomberglas-1tPeersPeersindustryratingratingindustrypagPricetotoPriceChinaLifeInsuranceInsuranceLifeChinargGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotairgefobenefitfromrecoveringstocksin--cHGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotairH-omparisonHdisclaimer---HH-H-embeddedvalueHHmbeddedvaluessshmosttheisofinsurancecompaniesleadingto023180305070911131517toStockCodeStock02378HK02378HK01299HK00945HK06060HK02628HK02601HK02328HK02318HK01508HK01336HK00966HK01339OutperfoHKChinaPacificInsuranceInsurancePacificChinaHKDec-17x0investment2628CurrencyratiolowhistoricratioatwasJun-18EVHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDrmHKareareexpectedtochange848420706798forLastLastpriceW102100136200Dec-18-sensitive846002125012220175605100018160aswhichismoreinvestmentmoreiswhichtofundamentalscompanyinsuranceexpecte7430051096502630HKtheraeinvestmentcreatePpotentialpotentialpropertysectorJun-19SD1PEV1772232nacompany91786256526173283146451AadecreaseindecreasenetincomePEfiscalyearfiscalPEDec-19economicrecoveryeconomic4942at0191504147400279826351794257594122601FitrclowhistoricamongJun-20thankstosupportiverealestatepolicopportunities1752571152HKNewChinaInsuranceChinaNewHK91837361534761303944383F-sensitivethansensitiveDec-20its101154169279686254474353273339354FlevelspeerspeerswilldriveupequitymarketequityupwilldriveTablePageHeaderJun-21-1SD5YAVG2Upgrade1209212208150606070902040404weexpectexpectwe1AInwe2023expectassetperformancetobenwepcitbnftotrmthefrommostbenefittoitexpectweandPBfiscalDec-21its213102126091706070709020504042Fpeersindustryratingratingindustryyearstillstill21109182309160606060802040404Jun-223htoetasrnjumpstrongpotentialthatF0besluggishin2023insluggishbeandPingAnInsuranceInsurancePingAnand1336ChinaLife210081522071405050608020403044Dec-22FiesHKROEsNonto130105136121119110respectively2For50For94895910775182682-FOutperfoakiacSectorFinanceBankInsuranceDYbpsincrease243461318550045607954705039752FHoweverrmPagePageMThusThusHK00280705996583256551918521237400165264946526232806kt31234216658714634682-26282318startCapWe3mofof42nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportNon-BankFinanceSector非银金融行业16December2022SeTel852250927FLowBlockGrandGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesanytoregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionlawapplicabletocontrarybewoulduseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyRThiswherandrisksrelateditsandconsulttheirownfinancialadvisersprioranyobjectivestoinvestmentdecisioninvestmentthecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintyandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforwardefforthasbestThoughensurebeentoaccuracytheinformationmadeoftheanddatacontainedResearchthisinReportGuotaicontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsbymadeassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuoreportthisinexpressedopinionsAnycompaniesofgroupJunanGuotaiofexecutivesprofessionalotheranddealerspersonswinororallyexpressedstrategiesinvestmentoropinionstocontrarybeordiffermayreportthisinexpressedopinionsAnyproprietarilyinvestmbankinginvestmentincludingaJunanGuotaiJunanGuotaiLimitedKongResearchReportdThisDISCLAIMER654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSRatingHorizonTimeto618TheBenchmarkTableSectorRatingDefinitionSectorRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionTableSectorSubReportTabledisclosure2022ReduceNeutralAccumulateBuyUnderperformNeutralOutperformSellethBenchmarkeesearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresideorcitizenaiswhoentityorpersonanybyuseortodistributionforintendedordirectedatnotisesearchReportGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerReportThereisnoofficeranoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchasReportassociatedwithGuotaiservingJunanandgroupitscompanindividualanemployednothavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiReportINSURANCEANPINGHKrespectinsecuritiestheinmarketamakewillormakingarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiwithinprecedingthe12months02191REITGuotaiJunanHKSF01983BANKHKLUZHOU00512morethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportHEALTHCAREANDHKBANKOFZHENGZHOUPHARMACEUTICAL02558BANKHKJINSHANGGRANDCHINAforExceptTheAnalystsandtheirTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedlasRatingDefinitiontRatingDefinitionpage-18Fax85225099118foHongKongHangSengIndexHongKongHangSengIndexr跑输大市中性跑赢大市卖出减持中性收集买入disclaimeranditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportmonthsnottoofferanconstituteinvitationoroesMillenniumassociatesdohavenotanyfinancialinterestsrelationintotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportorRelativeorRelativePerformanceorRelativePerformance5ortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformance15DefinitionDefinition-Plaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongtheththeheheheheheHSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCELIFECHINAHK02318SHARESHefundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalnservicesentPerformance-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhknditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusidomaygroupcompaniesitsndoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlooktfrxmlhpaiggnedaaepnonewieoinvestorunderwritersponsormanagerleadagentplacingtheexampleforetcisisisisP--515---5555ofthesectorofthesectorofthesectorofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorofthecompanyorsectortotototo155-5acquiresubscribepurchasebsecuritiesorfor1506196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoorortoequalholdnotdocompaniesgroupitsandJunanHKGuotai06196isisisfavorableunneutralfavorablesectornessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincoveredcompaniestorelatesthatnessisisisisfavorableisfavorableununneutral-favorablefavorableHSHARES02628HKmentionedinthisResearchthisinmentionedHK02628SHARESHTablePageHeaderoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchthisinmentionedissuertheofunpredictableandmutablesituationsoorregulationorwhichwouldsubjectwouldwhichorregulationorofCITICSECCITICofyGuotaiSecuritiesHongyJunantaiJunanNon--akiacSectorFinanceBankrittenformbysabyformrittenHSHARES06030SHARESH-ntoforlocatedinlocatedorofntlookingestimatesmaydifferorbeordiffermayJunanenecessaryeiesPagePagedoesnot4lesofof42nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportNon-BankFinanceSector非银金融行业16December2022