2022年全国房地产销售金额同比下跌26.7%。国家统计局2023年1月17日公布了2022年全年的房地产销售数据。我们看到2022年12月份的销售数字有些许复苏，虽然从同比的角度来看仍然较为疲软。去年12月单月的全国房地产销售金额和面积分别录得49.4%和44.8%的环比上涨，主要还是因为季节性的因素。但如果与2021年的数据相比，2022年12月的房地产销售金额和面积仍然分别录得同比27.7%和31.5%的下跌，虽然较2022年11月份的32.2%和33.3%下跌分别有所收窄。从2022年全年的角度来看，全国房地产销售金额和面积分别录得26.7%和24.3%的下跌，与市场的预期大体一致。我们认为，进入2023年第一季度，市场将会看到更多的需求端放松政策逐渐产生成效。在2023年一月份开始的时候，政府就宣布了在地方上采用更为动态灵活的房地产贷款利率。我们期待在接下来几个星期，会有更多的需求端放松政策出台。
　　2022年房地产投资继续走弱。2022年全年，房地产投资数据同比下跌10.0%，比2022年前11个月的9.8%同比降幅进一步扩大。我们认为主要的原因是地产新开工数据以及土地交易数据的大幅下降。新开工面积和土地购置费在2022年全年分别同比下降了39.4%和48.4%。展望2023年，我们认为在中性的假设下，全年的房地产投资数据将反弹至同比增加3%。但是考虑到当前的放松政策支持力度，我们认为有更多的向上空间
　　房地产竣工数据继续有所攀升。2022年12月份，单月的房地产竣工数据进一步收窄至同比下降6.6%，这使得全年的房地产竣工数字提升至同比下降15.0%，而在2022年1至11月，该数字为同比下降19.0%。我们认为竣工面积在2023年第一季度继续加速具备更多的确定性，尤其是考虑到政府关于“保交付”的决心。考虑到支持开发商的融资主要是用于保交付而不是土地投资，我们认为在今年第一季度，房地产竣工数据将继续有所攀升。
　　行业观点：我们建议投资人在2023年1月底之前增持房地产板块，而在2月份转变为更加审慎。我们认为在未来几个星期有望看到更多的需求端支持政策出台，这将持续提振市场情绪。因此，我们建议投资人在春节前继续增持板块，相信更多的政策利好将在1月份短期内继续推动板块情绪。但是进入到二月份，随着2022年全年业绩期的到来，我们认为将有不少地产公司宣布盈利预警。根据过往的经验，虽然市场已经对开发商利润下滑有充分预期，但这仍然会给股价带来负面影响。我们建议投资人在二月份获利了结或者在标的选择上更为审慎。我们仍然推荐行业内的央国企或者民营优质龙头，考虑到1）他们稳健的即将发布的2022财年业绩；以及2）“系统性重要”房企将获得更多的政策支持。优质龙头中，我们推荐龙湖集团（00960 HK）、金地集团（600383SH）、保利发展（600048 SH）和万科企业（02202 HK）。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNotePropertySectorChunliZhan詹春立快讯房地产行业85225097745jameszhangtjascomhk17January2023TableMainInfoDecNBSDataSlightSalesRecoveryDemand-SideLooseningPolicyWillTakeEffectin1Q2023快12月全国房地产数据点评销售略有复苏需求端放松政策今年一季度将发挥作用讯2022nationalpropertysalesvaluedeclinedby267YoYNationalBureauofStatisticsNBSreleasedFlashNoteFlashfull-year2022propertysalesdataon17Jan2023WeseeslightrecoveryfromtheDecsalesdataalthoughdataremainssoftonaYoYbasisNationalpropertysalesvaluevolumeinDec2022increasedMoMby494448mainlyduetotheseasonalityfactorIfcomparedtothedatain2021propertysalesvaluevolumeinDec2022stillrecordedYoYdeclineof277315slightlynarrowingfrom322333inNov2022Forthefullyearof2022nationalsalesvaluevolumerecordedYoYdeclineof267243whichwaslargelyinlinewithmarketexpectationWebelievethemarketwillseelooseningdemand-sidepoliciesgraduallytakingeffectinthefirstquarterof2023AtthebeginningofJan2023thegovernmentannouncedtoimplementamoreflexiblepolicyonmortgageratesatlocallevelWeexpectmoredemand-sidelooseningpolicytorolloutinthenextfewweeks2022realestateinvestmentfurtherweakenedIn2022realestateinvestmentdeclinedby100YoYwideningfromthe98YoYdeclinein11M2022Wecontributedthemainreasontotheslumpinproperty证new-startsandlacklusterlandtransactionswhichdeclinedYoYby394and484respectivelyin2022告券Lookingaheadinto2023ourneutralassumptionisthatrealestateinvestmentwillreboundto3YoYgrowth研报Howevergiventherecentlooseningmeasuresweseemoreupsidepotential究究PropertycompletioncontinuedtoclimbInDec2022monthlypropertycompletionGFArecordednarrowerResearchReport报研YoYdeclineof66whichimprovedfull-year2022GFAcompletiontoYoYdeclineof15011M2022190告YoYdeclineWeseemorecertaintythatGFAcompletiondatawillfurtheracceleratein1Q2023giventhe券EquitygovernmentsdeterminationofensuringconstructioncompletionConsideringthattheuseofsupportivefunding证fordevelopersisensuringcompletioninsteadoflandinvestmentsweexpectGFAcompletiondatatocontinueclimbedupin1Q2023SectorviewWesuggestinvestorstoaccumulatepropertysectorstocksbeforeendofJan2023butturnmorecautiousinFeb2023Weseechancesformoresupportivedemand-sidemeasurescomingoutinthenextfewweekswhichwillfurthersupportmarketsentimentAndhencewesuggestinvestorstoaccumulatesectorstocksTtowardstheChineseNewYearperiodandbelievemoreeasingnewswillcontinuetodriveshort-termexcitementainJan2023HoweverwhenenteringintoFeb2023wethinkawaveofprofitwarningsmaycomeoutastheFY2022resultsseasonisapproachingAlthoughprofitdeclineforcertaindevelopersisfullyexpectedbytheb房marketprofitalertswilldragonstockpricesaccordingtopreviousexperienceWesuggestinvestorstotakeprofitl地ortostaymoreselectiveonstockpicksinFeb2023WestillrecommendSOEsandqualityprivatenamesinthe产esectorconsidering1expectedsolidFY2022resultsand2morepolicysupporttothesystemicallyimportant行developersAmongqualitynameswerecommendLongfor00960HKGemdale600383SHPolyDevelopment业L600048SHandVanke-H02202HKPropertySectore2022年全国房地产销售金额同比下跌267国家统计局2023年1月17日公布了2022年全年的房地产销售数据我们看到f2022年12月份的销售数字有些许复苏虽然从同比的角度来看仍然较为疲软去年12月单月的全国房地产销售金额和面积分别t录得494和448的环比上涨主要还是因为季节性的因素但如果与2021年的数据相比2022年12月的房地产销售金额和面积仍然分别录得同比277和315的下跌虽然较2022年11月份的322和333下跌分别有所收窄从2022年全M年的角度来看全国房地产销售金额和面积分别录得267和243的下跌与市场的预期大体一致我们认为进入2023年a第一季度市场将会看到更多的需求端放松政策逐渐产生成效在2023年一月份开始的时候政府就宣布了在地方上采用更为动r态灵活的房地产贷款利率我们期待在接下来几个星期会有更多的需求端放松政策出台g2022年房地产投资继续走弱2022年全年房地产投资数据同比下跌100比2022年前11个月的98同比降幅进一步扩i大我们认为主要的原因是地产新开工数据以及土地交易数据的大幅下降新开工面积和土地购置费在2022年全年分别同比下降n了394和484展望2023年我们认为在中性的假设下全年的房地产投资数据将反弹至同比增加3但是考虑到当前的放松政策支持力度我们认为有更多的向上空间SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5SeethelastpagSourceNBSTableTableREInvestmentREUnsoldPropertiesLandPurchaseCompletionUnderConstructionNewStartsASPSalesVolumeSalesValueYoYChangesREUnsoldPropertiesmnsqmLandPurchaseCompletionmnsqmUnderConstructionmnsqmNewmnStartssqmASPRMBsqmSalesVolumemnsqmSalesValueRMBbnPropertyefoInvestmentRMBbnSH财年业绩以及份获利了结或者在标的选择上更为审慎预警根据过往的经验将在看到更多的需求端支持政策出台这将持续提振市场情绪因此我们建议投资人在春节前继续增持板块行业观点我们认为在速数字提升至同比下降房地产竣工数据继续有所攀升rdisclaimer1具备保利发展NBS1GuotaiJunanJunanGuotaiActivities更多的确定性月份短期内继续推动板块情绪p今年第一季度我们建议投资人mnsqmroperty2International600048SH系统性重要150d尤其是考虑到政府关于保交付的决心ataata房地产竣工数据将继续有所攀升虽然市场已经在而summary2023和万科企业2022在房企将获得更多的政策支持优质龙头中我们推荐龙湖集团140107766310526122202295049504107572651796632412067629599214014014年但是进入到二月份622334年我们仍然推荐对1P12年开发商利润下滑月底之前增持月份单月的房地产竣工数据进一步收窄至同比下降131714069至15614422959895981000735715456793128587281013746502202HK01501571922811月该数字行业房地产102581025811763323410122534822106110617590166974761573有69613281016016695220内的随着充分板块为央国企或者民营优质龙头考虑到2022预期但同比下降153考虑到支持开发商的融资主要是用于保交付而不是土地投资1337013370109801098044158137221015101578151787789216947030705677017017而在589255年全年业绩期的到来这仍然会给股价带来负面影响我们建议投资人在二月2190月份转TablePageHeader11014997149971202612026781421721071222282238223209387371717955213018018524291936我们认为竣工面积在变为更加1141597315973132191321949012289388938227293101716992687856665019019498258959我们认为将有不少地产公司宣布盈利审慎我们认为在未来几个星期有望00960HK661他们稳健的即将发布的173611736114144141441149122292689268224498601761700137592687020020这4992559122023相信更多的政策利好金地集团使得1551141013910139181931476014760年第一季度继续加全年的房地产竣工1122210141014975419891794442452281948021021510216rprySectorProperty10053415039424326713331133311329013290723260038310520222090509050120698141358564101862PagePage2022222ofof5n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNotePropertySector房地产行业17January2023SeethelastpagAppendixSourceSourceFigureSourceFigureSourceFigure100001200014000160001800020000100001200014000160001000125015001750200022502500e20004000600080002000400060008000250500750fo00r0disclaimermnmnsqmNBSNBSNBSRMBbnRMBbnGFANewStartsLHS531GuotaiJunanJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiRealRealPropertyPropertyNBSAmountSoldYTDYoYofResidentialHousesRHSAmountSoldYTDYoYofCommodityHousesRHSAmountSoldofResidentialHousesLHSAmountSoldofCommodityHousesLHSInvestmentinResidentialHousesYTDYoYRHSInvestmentYTDYoYRHSInvestmentinResidentialHousesLHSInvestmentLHSepropertydstatensalesalesewewInternationalinvestmentsvtartsataataalueGFANewStartsYTDYoYRHScinChinainhartsinChinaininChinainP-60-40-20020406080100120140160-20-1001020304050-60-40-20020406080cFigureSourceNBSFigureSourceSourceNBSFigureSourceNBS1000012000ompletedompleted200040006000800010001250150017502000100200300400500600250500750000mnmnsqmmnmnsqmmnmnsqm426GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiPropertiesPropertyUnsoldUnsoldinChinaTablePageHeaderGFASoldofResidentialHousesYTDYoYRHSGFASoldofCommodityHousesYTDYoYRHSGFASoldofResidentialHousesLHSGFASoldofCommodityHousesLHSGFACompletedYTDYoYRHSGFAunderConstructionYTDYoYRHSGFACompletedLHSGFAUnderConstructionLHSUnsoldResidentialGFAYTDYoYRHSUnsoldGFAYTDYoYRHSUnsoldResidentialGFALHSUnsoldGFALHSpropertiessalesalesunderndervolumeolumeconstructionandandonstructioninChinainChinainrprySectorProperty-60-40-20020406080100120-20-15-10-50510152025-30-20-1001020304050PagePage3ofof5n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNotePropertySector房地产行业17January2023SeethelastpagSourceSourceFigure100012001400160018002000e200400600800fo0rdisclaimerNBSRMBbn7LandGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaipLandPurchaseAmountYTDYoYRHSLandPurchaseAmountLHSurchasesininChinaP-60-50-40-30-20-100102030SourceSourceNBSFigure100120-60-40-202040608008ChinaChinaGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiTablePageHeaderPersonalMortgageYTDYoYDepositsandAdvancePaymentsYTDYoYSelf-raisingFundsYTDYoYDomesticLoansYTDYoYdeveloperssourcesofourcesfundsrprySectorPropertyPagePage4ofof5n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNotePropertySector房地产行业17January2023SeeWebsitewwwgtjacomhkTel852250927FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongResearchThisReportnotisdirectedorintendedatdistributionfortoorbyanyusepersonorentitywhoaiscitizenorThoughbAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwdReportResearchThisDISCLAIMERinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulatiorlawsubjectGuotaiJunanandgroupapplicableitscompaniesanytoregistrationtoorlicensingrequirementwithincontrarysuchjubewoulduseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyinunpredicandwherenecessaryinherentlyconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionwithconditionseconomicandpoliticalobjectiveinvestmentfuturethecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintythesosituationmutableofassumptionsthefromderivedforecastsandestimatesforwardsomecontainmayReportResearchThishereindataandinformationtheofcompletenessandaccuracytheguaranteenotbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebyassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunandealerspersonsproprietarilyreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunana654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSTabledisclosureRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkTableSectorRatingDefinitionSectorRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkCompanythTableCompanyRatingDefinition2023eUnderperformNeutralOutperformSellReduceNeutralAccumulateBuylasReportThereisGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedReportResthisinmentionedissuertheofrespectinsecuritiestheinmarketamakingnotarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiHKA01995SERVICEESCIFIwithrelationshipsbankinginvestment03319HKFINANCIALgroupSTREEThadPROPERTY01502HKmentionedthisinhaveResearchReportwithinthepreceding12monthscompaniesitsgroupitsandandJunanJunanGuotaiHKGuotai06196HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU02558companiesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationBANKoftheissuermentionedinthisReHKJINSHANG0240200512HEALTHCAREHKSINOHYTECANDPHARMACEUTICALGRANDCHINAforExceptTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdohavenotanyfinancialinterestsrelationintotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReTtheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedpagRatingDefinitionesteffortestbeenhasensuremadetoaccuracytheoftheinformationanddatacontainedthisinResearchReportGuotaiJunandRatingDefinitionefor-18Fax85225099118disclaimerdisclaimerandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferordifferreportmaythisexpressedinopinionscompaniesAnyofprofessionalGuotai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