研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus18January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变FlashNoteDecNBSDataSlightPropertySalesRecoveryDemand-Side--Outperform--NSectorLooseningPolicyWillTakeEffectin1Q2023快讯12月全国房地产数据点评销售略证房地产行业有复苏需求端放松政策今年一季度将发--跑赢大市--否告挥作用券研报TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题究究MarketDataCriticalSectorDataUpdate17January2023报研宏观即将告别的超级货币宽松时代2023年1月17日告券EquityResearchReportAppendices证ChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimer1of7MorningResearchFocusPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2157764-078126720710511恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE731404-049267042219187国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE450054-0143881620040577630科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatDec17PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻ChinasGDPreached121trillionyuanin2022up3YoY29growthinthefourthquarterwhichwasbetterthanmarketexpectations中国2022年GDP达到121万亿元同比增长3其中第四季度增长29好于市场预期AFedofficialssaidhewouldcloselymonitorinflationandthelabormarkettheFedneedsinflationtoreturnconvincinglytotargetandcannotdeclarevictoryoninflationtoosoonAslongasinflationremainshightheFedwillneedtoraiserates美联储官员表示将密切关注通胀和劳动力市场美联储需要通胀令人信服地回到目标水平不能过早宣布在通胀方面取得胜利只要通胀居高不下美联储就需要加息TableUpcomingSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of7MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsFlashNotePropertySectorDecNBSDataSlightSalesRecoveryDemand-SideLooseningPolicyWillTakeEffectin1Q2023RatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystChunliZhanReportDate2023-01-17Summary2022nationalpropertysalesvaluedeclinedby267YoYNationalBureauofStatisticsNBSreleasedfull-year2022propertysalesdataon17Jan2023WeseeslightrecoveryfromtheDecsalesdataalthoughdataremainssoftonaYoYbasisNationalpropertysalesvaluevolumeinDec2022increasedMoMby494448mainlyduetotheseasonalityfactorIfcomparedtothedatain2021propertysalesvaluevolumeinDec2022stillrecordedYoYdeclineof277315slightlynarrowingfrom322333inNov2022Forthefullyearof2022nationalsalesvaluevolumerecordedYoYdeclineof267243whichwaslargelyinlinewithmarketexpectationWebelievethemarketwillseelooseningdemand-sidepoliciesgraduallytakingeffectinthefirstquarterof2023AtthebeginningofJan2023thegovernmentannouncedtoimplementamoreflexiblepolicyonmortgageratesatlocallevelWeexpectmoredemand-sidelooseningpolicytorolloutinthenextfewweeks2022realestateinvestmentfurtherweakenedIn2022realestateinvestmentdeclinedby100YoYwideningfromthe98YoYdeclinein11M2022Wecontributedthemainreasontotheslumpinpropertynew-startsandlacklusterlandtransactionswhichdeclinedYoYby394and484respectivelyin2022Lookingaheadinto2023ourneutralassumptionisthatrealestateinvestmentwillreboundto3YoYgrowthHowevergiventherecentlooseningmeasuresweseemoreupsidepotentialPropertycompletioncontinuedtoclimbInDec2022monthlypropertycompletionGFArecordednarrowerYoYdeclineof66whichimprovedfull-year2022GFAcompletiontoYoYdeclineof15011M2022190YoYdeclineWeseemorecertaintythatGFAcompletiondatawillfurtheracceleratein1Q2023giventhegovernmentsdeterminationofensuringconstructioncompletionConsideringthattheuseofsupportivefundingfordevelopersisensuringcompletioninsteadoflandinvestmentsweexpectGFAcompletiondatatocontinueclimbedupin1Q2023SectorviewWesuggestinvestorstoaccumulatepropertysectorstocksbeforeendofJan2023butturnmorecautiousinFeb2023Weseechancesformoresupportivedemand-sidemeasurescomingoutinthenextfewweekswhichwillfurthersupportmarketsentimentAndhencewesuggestinvestorstoaccumulatesectorstockstowardstheChineseNewYearperiodandbelievemoreeasingnewswillcontinuetodriveshort-termexcitementinJan2023HoweverwhenenteringintoFeb2023wethinkawaveofprofitwarningsmaycomeoutastheFY2022resultsseasonisapproachingAlthoughprofitdeclineforcertaindevelopersisfullyexpectedbythemarketprofitalertswilldragonstockpricesaccordingtopreviousexperienceWesuggestinvestorstotakeprofitortostaymoreselectiveonstockpicksinFeb2023WestillrecommendSOEsandqualityprivatenamesinthesectorconsidering1expectedsolidFY2022resultsand2morepolicysupporttothesystemicallyimportantdevelopersAmongqualitynameswerecommendLongfor00960HKGemdale600383SHPolyDevelopment600048SHandVanke-H02202HKChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of7MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告快讯房地产行业12月全国房地产数据点评销售略有复苏需求端放松政策今年一季度将发挥作用评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员詹春立报告日期2023-01-17报告摘要2022年全国房地产销售金额同比下跌267国家统计局2023年1月17日公布了2022年全年的房地产销售数据我们看到2022年12月份的销售数字有些许复苏虽然从同比的角度来看仍然较为疲软去年12月单月的全国房地产销售金额和面积分别录得494和448的环比上涨主要还是因为季节性的因素但如果与2021年的数据相比2022年12月的房地产销售金额和面积仍然分别录得同比277和315的下跌虽然较2022年11月份的322和333下跌分别有所收窄从2022年全年的角度来看全国房地产销售金额和面积分别录得267和243的下跌与市场的预期大体一致我们认为进入2023年第一季度市场将会看到更多的需求端放松政策逐渐产生成效在2023年一月份开始的时候政府就宣布了在地方上采用更为动态灵活的房地产贷款利率我们期待在接下来几个星期会有更多的需求端放松政策出台2022年房地产投资继续走弱2022年全年房地产投资数据同比下跌100比2022年前11个月的98同比降幅进一步扩大我们认为主要的原因是地产新开工数据以及土地交易数据的大幅下降新开工面积和土地购置费在2022年全年分别同比下降了394和484展望2023年我们认为在中性的假设下全年的房地产投资数据将反弹至同比增加3但是考虑到当前的放松政策支持力度我们认为有更多的向上空间房地产竣工数据继续有所攀升2022年12月份单月的房地产竣工数据进一步收窄至同比下降66这使得全年的房地产竣工数字提升至同比下降150而在2022年1至11月该数字为同比下降190我们认为竣工面积在2023年第一季度继续加速具备更多的确定性尤其是考虑到政府关于保交付的决心考虑到支持开发商的融资主要是用于保交付而不是土地投资我们认为在今年第一季度房地产竣工数据将继续有所攀升行业观点我们建议投资人在2023年1月底之前增持房地产板块而在2月份转变为更加审慎我们认为在未来几个星期有望看到更多的需求端支持政策出台这将持续提振市场情绪因此我们建议投资人在春节前继续增持板块相信更多的政策利好将在1月份短期内继续推动板块情绪但是进入到二月份随着2022年全年业绩期的到来我们认为将有不少地产公司宣布盈利预警根据过往的经验虽然市场已经对开发商利润下滑有充分预期但这仍然会给股价带来负面影响我们建议投资人在二月份获利了结或者在标的选择上更为审慎我们仍然推荐行业内的央国企或者民营优质龙头考虑到1他们稳健的即将发布的2022财年业绩以及2系统性重要房企将获得更多的政策支持优质龙头中我们推荐龙湖集团00960HK金地集团600383SH保利发展600048SH和万科企业02202HK即将告别的超级货币宽松时代宏观组周浩报告日期2023-01-17报告摘要日本央行的下一步举动牵动着市场的神经作为全球最后一个仍然实施负利率的大型经济体日本央行距离退出宽松似乎只有一步之遥对于全球市场而言这是一个时代的告别由于长期的负利率日本居民持有大约35万亿美元的海外投资净资产货币政策的变动可能对这些海外资产带来长期影响这也可能带来巨大的全球资产价格的波动樱花季尚未到来但投资者的心中樱花已经盛开退出交易已经抢跑这会带来市场的波动也会让政策的制定变得痛苦甚至难堪我们很难在这个时点对日本央行在过去30年的货币政策作出准确的评价但梳理30年来的宽松历史是一项值得的工作在日本央行的各种操作中我们看到了坚持也看到了摇摆看到了创新也看到了守旧看到了历史也看到了未来任何的创新都可能画上休止符日本央行正处在这样的十字路口如果说通胀本来是等待戈多但当它不期而至时大多Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of7MorningResearchFocus数人似乎还没有做好准备作为安倍经济学的忠实拥趸日本央行行长黑田东彦的任期将满未来的接任人选也将成为市场关注的焦点有消息称下一任日本央行的行长人选将在2月10日被提名而新行长的背景也将会被市场严格审视如果说黑田东彦开创了日本超级宽松货币政策的新时代那现在很可能是该说Sayonara了Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of7MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer6of7MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKSINOHYTEC02402HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer7of7