中国重新开放步伐加快，市场焦点从监控新冠病例转向追踪经济及工商业活动。当前阶段，新冠感染可能仅在少部分内陆区域未达到峰值，尤其是在未来几周的春节期间，农村地区的确诊病例有可能进一步增加。不过，在那些重新开放相对早的地区（主要是高线级城市），地铁运量和跨省客流量情况过去几周内已有明显回升。我们预计此趋势将会提速，得益于本土疫情管控及旅行限制正在分阶段放宽。展望未来，线下消费渠道的恢复将会提振国内社会零售销售，并改善消费品的动销状况。
　　受益于销售单价提升及成本端边际改善，我们对2023年食品饮料行业的潜在利润率优化空间更为乐观。我们维持食品饮料行业“跑赢大市”的评级。我们建议投资者应保持关注的投资机会包括：1）国内大型啤酒厂商以及2）乳制品产业链上下游的龙头公司。我们于2022年12月分别发布公司报告，重申了对华润啤酒（00291 HK）和中国飞鹤（06186 HK）“买入”的投资评级；这两间公司的股价表现在过去两周大幅领涨港股食品饮料同业，惟鉴于其强劲的盈利增长前景，我们依然看好市值进一步推升的空间。此外，我们推荐青岛啤酒（00168 HK）、蒙牛乳业（02319 HK）、优然牧业（09858 HK）以及现代牧业（01117HK）。
　　风险因素：1）线下消费场景反弹可能不及预期；2）原材料及包装物的价格变动超出预期；与3）食品安全问题。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportConsumerSector-FoodBeverageAndyChen陈思超行业报告消费行业食品饮料85225092665andychengtjascomhk16January2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyWrapDomesticFoodandBeverageConsumption行IsLikelyToAccelerateRecoveryOutperform业双周报国内食品饮料消费有望加速恢复跑赢大市报DuetoChinasacceleratedreopeningmarketfocushasshiftedrapidlyfrommonitoringCovidcaseswhicharenolongerreportedbytheChineseRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReportgovernmenttotrackingeconomicandbusinessactivityAtthisstageCovidMaintainedinfectionsmaynothavehititspeakonlyinfewinlandregionsInparticularsomeruralareasmayseefurtherincreaseinconfirmedcasesinthecoming评级跑赢大市维持weeksduringtheChineseNewYearperiodHoweverearlyreopeners2mainlyhigher-tiercitiessawsubstantialreboundinsubwayridershipMSCIHKconsumerstaplesvsHSIandinterprovincialtrafficvolumeoverthepastfewweeksWeexpectperformancethistrendtospeedupsincethedomesticCovidtravelcontrolmeasureshaveMSCI港股上市必选消费板块指数及恒生指数表现beenfurthereasedGoingforwardrecoveryinofflineconsumptionchannelswillleadChinasretailsalestobottomoutandboostconsumergoodsturnover300ofreturnDuetothepositiveeffectfromhighersellingpricesandmarginallylowerinput200costwearemoreoptimisticaboutpotentialprofitabilityimprovementsinthe100证foodandbeveragesectorduring2023WemaintainOutperformratingfor00告thefoodandbeveragesectorWethinkthatinvestorsshouldkeepfocusing券oninvestmentopportunitieson1Chinaslarge-scalebreweriesand2leading100研报playersinthedownstreamandupstreamdairyproductsubsectorInDecember200究究2022weissuedCompanyReportsonChinaResourcesBeer00291HK300andChinaFeihe06186HKreiteratingBuyinvestmentratingsThoughResearchReport报研400thesharepriceofthetwocompaniessignificantlyoutpacedtheirfoodandJan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23告beveragepeersoverthepasttwoweekswearestillbullishontheupsideHSIIndexMSCIHKConsumerStaplesIndex券EquitypotentialofmarketcapitalizationdrivenbytheirrobustprofitgrowthoutlookSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational证WealsorecommendTsingtaoBrewery00168HKMengniuDairy02319HKYouranDairy09858HKandModernDairy01117HKYTDYoYgrowthoftotalbeverageRiskfactors1Reboundinofflineconsumptionscenemaymissexpectationssectorrevenueandprofit2unexpectedpricemovementsofrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponents饮料类制造业营业收入及利润总额累计同比变动and3foodsafetyproblemsYTDYoYGrowthTotalBeverageSectorRevenueYTDYoYGrowthTotalBeverageSectorProfitT中国重新开放步伐加快市场焦点从监控新冠病例转向追踪经济及工商业活动当前阶段7060新冠感染可能仅在少部分内陆区域未达到峰值尤其是在未来几周的春节期间农村地区a50消的确诊病例有可能进一步增加不过在那些重新开放相对早的地区主要是高线级城市4030b地铁运量和跨省客流量情况过去几周内已有明显回升我们预计此趋势将会提速得益于215费本土疫情管控及旅行限制正在分阶段放宽展望未来线下消费渠道的恢复将会提振国内20行l1051社会零售销售并改善消费品的动销状况业0-eBeverageFood-10-受益于销售单价提升及成本端边际改善我们对2023年食品饮料行业的潜在利润率优化-20食空间更为乐观我们维持食品饮料行业跑赢大市的评级我们建议投资者应保持关注品-30L的投资机会包括1国内大型啤酒厂商以及2乳制品产业链上下游的龙头公司我们于饮2022年12月分别发布公司报告重申了对华润啤酒00291HK和中国飞鹤06186HKe料买入的投资评级这两间公司的股价表现在过去两周大幅领涨港股食品饮料同业惟SourceChoiceGuotaiJunanInternationalf鉴于其强劲的盈利增长前景我们依然看好市值进一步推升的空间此外我们推荐青岛啤酒00168HK蒙牛乳业02319HK优然牧业09858HK以及现代牧业01117tConsumerSectorHKM风险因素1线下消费场景反弹可能不及预期2原材料及包装物的价格变动超出预期a与3食品安全问题rginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of10See54321thelasMajorRiskFactorsSectorIndustryDataUpdateSectorPerformanceReviewInvestmentIdeastpagefoandCompanyNewsUpdaterdisclaimerPTableofContentsTablePageHeaderosmrSectorConsumer-odBeverageFoodPagePage985432ofof10in2argMbleTa1nigraMelbaTSectorReportConsumerSector-FoodBeverage消费行业-食品饮料16January2023SethousandinincreasesubwaFiguree1consolidationofmarketsharehascomeMoreovermarriMoreovercomehassharemarketofconsolidationforperiodthesoonimplementedwillbestandardsnationalthenewsegmentpowdermilktheForHK02319DairyMengniumanufacturdairyoptimisticbeenposttheinbeveragesandfoodnutritionalfordemandhigherswiftfrommonthsfollowingtheinrecoverydemandofeconomytheofsignsreopeningvisiblemoreseetoexpectweforwardLookinggoalssalesDairysector00168BreweryOurhealthyearningssectorsupportwillpressurecostonreliefmarginaltimeintactWeremainsmomentumgrowthchannelssectorBeer12baselinethebewillthinkwewhichturnovergoods2023expectthistrendspeedtouphigherincreasethiAtrecovery5takemayitregionsretaidomesticactivitCovidbusinessandeconomictrackingtogovernmentChinesethebyreportedlongermonitoringfromrapidlyshiftedhasfocusmarketreopeningacceleratedChinastoDue11SecuritiesResearchInstituteGuotaiJunanGuotaiInstituteResearchSecuritiesSourcethelasInsstageCovidinfectionsmaynothavehitthepeakinfewinlandregionsInparticularsomeruralareasmayseemayareasruralsomeparticularInregionsinlandfewinpeakthehithavenotmayinfectionsCovidstages-InUpdateSectorGocasesinmainlandChinareducedpeoplereducedChinamainlandincasest1vestmentOfficialOfficialofWeiboaccountsthemetroofsystem-tiercitiescitiestierpagvestmentThemesvestmentandSinconfirmedcasesconfirmediningingforwardrecoveryinofflineEarlypassengersSpecificallysalesvolumeSpecificallysalesefotoppickisChinaResourcesBeer00291HKwithinvestmentratingasBuyWealsorecommendTsingtaoTsingtaorecommendalsoWeBuyasratinginvestmentwithHK00291BeerResourcesChinaispicktopPremiumizationremainsaaremainsPremiumizationrlsalesdataremainedweakSimilartowhatwehaveseenduringtheinitialstageofreopeninginmanyoverseasmanyinreopeningofinitialstagetheduri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