研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus12January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨AntaSports02020HK4Q22RetailChannelPerformanceInLineWithMarketExpectation焦Research点安踏体育02020HK2022年4季度零售渠道表现符合市场预期MorningLatestReports最新报告摘要CompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变FlashNote2022AnnualShipmentsReviewRelativelyStrongSalesinSunnyOptical02382HKHK13100--Accumulate--NVehicleLensesDouble-DigitDeclineinHandsetLenses证快讯2022年全年出货量点评车载镜头舜宇光学告02382HKHK13100--收集--否券销售相对强劲手机镜头双位数下滑研Gaming报SectorReportMacaosCovid--Outperform--NSectorControlsCometoanEnd究究博彩行业行业报告澳门疫情管控措施结束--跑赢大市--否报研SectorReportHongKongPublic告Construction券HousingInvestmenttoSubstantiallyEngineering--Outperform--NEquityResearchReportIncreaseintheNextFiveYearsTotalSector证MarketSizeofHK100Billion行业报告香港公营房屋投资未来五年建筑工程行业--跑赢大市--否将大幅增加总市场规模达千亿港元SectorReportBi-WeeklyUpdateInAutomobilesthePost-PandemicEraAuto--Outperform--NSectorIndustryCompetitionHasIntensifiedAndMarginalRepairHasBegun行业报告双周报后疫情时代下汽车汽车行业--跑赢大市--否行业竞争加剧边际修复已开启TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题TheDarkestMomentofthePandemicHasPassedTheHongKongMarketStrategy11January2023EquityMarketHasPricedinConsumptionRecoveryChillHitsUSServiceSectorandLiquidity-motivatedTradingMayMarketStrategy11January2023AccelerateAppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of11MorningResearchFocusHSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2143605049131356751173恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE73109206597341458722国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE454712-0253818690033787800科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatJan10PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of11MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusAntaSports02020HK4Q22RetailChannelPerformanceInLineWithMarketExpectationAnalystHansenTangWhathappenedAntaSportsAntaortheCompanyannouncedits4Q22retailchannelperformancewhichwasinlinewithmarketexpectationIn4Q221AntabrandretailsalesofAntabrandrecordedhigh-single-digitpercentageYoYdeclinewhichwasbetterthanpessimisticmarketexpectationsandYoYdeclineofinternationalpeersdespitesluggishretailenvironmentsinceOct20222FILAretailsalesofFILArecordedlow-teenspercentageYoYdeclineamongwhichFILAAdultsandFILAKidsrecordedmid-teensandlow-teenspercentageYoYdeclinerespectivelywhileFILAFusionrecordedhigh-single-digitpercentageYoYgrowthFILAonlinestillachievedapositiveYoYgrowthwhichpartiallyoffsetthenegativeimpactoftemporaryclosureofstores3Allotherbrandsretailsalesofallotherbrandsgrewby10-15YoYwhichmaintainsgrowthmomentumofrisingdemandonoutdoorproductsFor2022retailsalesofAntabrandincreasedbylow-single-digitpercentageYoYwhileFILAbranddeclinedlow-singledigitpercentageYoYRetailsalesofallotherbrandsincreasedby20-25YoYCommentsandViewsDiscountrateofAntabrandandFILAdidnotgetworseasinventoryimprovedQoQin4Q22TheCompanyadoptedtheflexibledynamicmanagementapproachinresponsetothemarketvolatilitiesinordertomaintainahealthyinventorylevelForAntaandFILAbrandretailchannelinventory-to-salesratiosin4Q22wasover50xand70-80xrespectivelywhichdidnotgetworsethanthatof3Q22InventorystructureimprovedQoQastheproportionofnewproductsrosecomparedwiththatof3Q2022TheoverallretaildiscountofAntaandFILAbrandstayedlargelyflattishYoYRetaildiscountrateofFILAexcludingoutletswas20InvestmentsuggestionWeareconservativeonbottomlinegrowthin2022butaremoreconfidentaboutsalesrecoveryin2023TheCompanyhasimplementedstringentcostcontrolmeasurestoreduceoperatingexpendituresalbeitnotsufficienttofullyoffsetthepandemicsimpactonsalesunderDTCmodelofAntabrandanddirectretailbusinessesofFILAbrandandallotherbrandsin2022Wethusexpectmoreexpenseincurredtoweighonbottomlinegrowthin2022duetooperatingdeleveragingEncouraginglywehaveseenapositivetheCompanysretailsalesgrowthduringtheNewYearholidayasmorepeoplearerecoveringfromCovidandbecomingantibodycarriersThemanagementholdsaconservativeviewonsalesgrowthin1Q23consideringthehighbasein1Q21andpeoplesexpectationonlowerfutureincomeWeexpecttheCompanyssalesgrowthtopickupstartingfrom2Q23eventhoughthepaceofrecoverycouldbeerraticWealsoexpecttheCompanysinventoriesanddiscountlevelstocontinuetoimprovetoanormallevelin2Q23OurcurrentTPisHK10600andinvestmentratingisBuyWemayreviewourTPandinvestmentratinginournextCompanyReportTableLatestLatestReportsFlashNoteSunnyOptical02382HK2022AnnualShipmentsReviewRelativelyStrongSalesinVehicleLensesDouble-DigitDeclineinHandsetLensesRatingAccumulate6-18mTPHK13100AnalystJackLiuReportDate2023-01-11SummaryShipmentstatisticsofSunnyOpticaltheCompanyinDec2022reflectedthatdemandfromthesmartphonemarketisstillweakShipmentvolumeforhandsetlenssetsandhandsetcameramodulesinDec2022declinedby401YoYand289YoYrespectivelySpecificallyhandsetlenssetsregisteredrelativelylargeMoMdeclineof205inDec2022whichwasmainlyduetoclientsapplyingyear-endinventorycontrolShipmentvolumeforvehiclelenssetsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of11MorningResearchFocusdecreasedby336MoMinDec2022mainlyreflectingChristmasHolidayimpactontheclientsideShipmentvolumeofvehiclelenssetsgrewby161YoYin2022whilehandsetlenssetsdeclinedby172YoYduringthesameperiodoftimeWeexpecttheCompanysvehiclelenssetsbusinesstomaintainrelativelystronggrowthmomentumconsideringthatishortageofkeycomponentsintheautosupplychainwillgraduallyalleviateandiidevelopmentofnewenergyvehiclesandintelligentvehiclesisexpectedtoaccelerateAlthoughrecentadjustmentsinthedynamiczero-CovidpolicyinChinamightstimulatedomesticdemandforconsumerelectronicproductsweanticipatethatitwilltakesometimeforthemarkettowitnessnotablerecoveryinsmartphonedemandandthespecificationupgradetrendConsideringstablecooperationwithitsmajorcustomersinNorthAmericaandKoreaweexpecttheCompanyshandsetlensshipmentsin2023tobehighlysensitivetorecoveryintheglobalconsumerelectronicsmarketTheCompanywillissueasustainability-linkedUSDbondinHongKongforthepurposeofrefinancingTheprincipalamountofsuchbondwillbeUS400millionwithacouponrateof595perannumThebondisexpectedtobeissuedon17Jan2023andmatureon17Jul2026Issuepricewillbe99788oftheprincipalamountTheCompanyplanstousethenetproceedsfromthisbondissuanceforthepurposeofrefinancingitsexistingindebtednessThisbondisexpectedtoberatedBaa1byMoodysWeremainoptimisticabouttheCompanysshipmentrecoveryin2023Weanticipatethat2023willbeavitalyearforAppleinnovationasseveralmajornewproductswillhavesignificantperformanceimprovementandarevolutionarymixedrealityMRproductisonthehorizonThereforethewholeApplesupplychainwillbenefitmassivelyfromdemandresumptionandproductupgradeinthemid-to-longtermHoweverinterestratehikesandcontinuedCovidpandemiceffectsbringsmoreuncertaintytotheglobalconsumerelectronicsmarketSomeinvestorsbelievetheturningpointwillappearin2H23OurcurrentinvestmentratingfortheCompanyisAccumulatewithatargetpriceofHK13100persharerepresenting240x2024FPERSectorReportGamingSectorMacaosCovidControlsCometoanEndRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystNoahHudsonReportDate2023-01-11SummaryInsyncwithmainlandChinaMacaoremovednearlyallCovid-controltravelrestrictionson8JanuaryMacaoscross-bordertravelruleshaveessentiallyreturnedtothepre-pandemicparadigmalbeitwithlimitedtravelcapacityOnthefirstdayofopeningupMacaovisitationwasjust367ofthatin2019indicatingthatthereisgreatroomforgrowthpotentialWemaintainourOutperformsectorratingandsuggesttoaccumulateonsharepricepull-backsWethinkthatinthecomingweeksandmonthsifactualMacaogamingresultsmissmarketexpectationsinvestorsentimentwillofcoursefirstcorrectlowerbutwillthencontinuetofurtherimproveAlthoughitmightbeerraticweexpectMacaogamingsupwardrecoverytrendtocontinuethroughout2023especiallyin2H2023Assuchwethinkanyshorttermmissedexpectationsandsharepricepull-backswillbeaccumulationopportunitiesWerecommendtoaccumulateondipsespeciallygamingstocksthathaveshowngreatersharepricevolatilitySincethestartofthepandemicthelesspopularnamesMGMChina02282HKandWynnMacau01128HKhadthegreatestincreasesinsharepricefromtheirlowstotheirhighsStartingfrom2020thesharepricegrowthfromthehistoricallowtothehistoricalhighforMGMChina02282HKandWynnMacau01128HKwas2498and2272respectivelyRisksThepaceofMacaosgamingrecoveryin2023remainshighlyuncertainandcouldbeerraticorslowerthanexpectedShorttermtherecouldbesharepricepull-backsifChineseNewYearorJanuaryresultsnumberofvisitorsorgamingrevenuedisappointsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of11MorningResearchFocusSectorReportConstructionEngineeringSectorHongKongPublicHousingInvestmenttoSubstantiallyIncreaseintheNextFiveYearsTotalMarketSizeofHK100BillionRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGaryWongReportDate2023-01-11SummaryWethinkthattheHKSARgovernmentistransitioningfromasmallandnon-interventionalgovernmenttoalargeandproactivegovernmentgovernment-driveninvestmentwillincreasesignificantlyAmongallinvestmentinpublichousingisboundtobethemostimportantinvestmentcategoryashousingproblemsareatthecoreofpeopleslivelihoodissuesInadditionweexpectasubstantialincreaseintheuseofModularIntegratedConstructionMiCmethodfornewpublichousingtomeetwiththeaggressiveconstructiontargetsWeexpecttotalspendingonpublichousingconstructiontoreachHK1479billioninthenext5yearscombinedrepresentinganaverageannualspendingofHK296billionin2023-2027anincreaseof34comparedwiththebudgetedspendingofHK221billionin2022InadditionduetosubstantiallyunsatisfieddemandforpublichousingwhilethereispotentialsupplycapacityslackwethinktheconstructiontargetsmaybefurtherrevisedupwardsinthefutureChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKbeingthelargestpublichousingprojectsconstructioncontractorinHongKongwillbenefitmostfromthesharpincreaseinpublichousinginvestmentOurtargetpriceisHK1420correspondingto81x72x64x202220232024PEandtheinvestmentratingisBuyInadditionChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HKbeingthelargestglasscurtainwallprojectcontractorinHongKongwillbeoneofthemainbeneficiarieswiththegovernmentsignificantlyincreasinginvestmentinsportsfacilitiesandhospitalsinthenexttenyearsOurtargetpriceisHK266correspondingto93x66x46x202220232024PEinvestmentratingisBuySectorReportAutomobilesSectorBi-WeeklyUpdateInthePost-PandemicEraAutoIndustryCompetitionHasIntensifiedAndMarginalRepairHasBegunRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystIvanWuReportDate2023-01-11SummaryH-shareshaveenteredanewroundofreboundandmarginalrepairoftheautoindustryhasbegunOurviewonthemarkethasgraduallybecomeoptimisticandwereiteratethatthepessimismoftheindustryin4Q22hasbeenreflectedbythemarketAnti-epidemiccontrolmeasuresin2022hadanimpactondownstreamconsumptioncoupledwithfactorssuchaspessimisticsalesexpectationsandfiercecompetitioncausingtheautoindextolagbehindtheHSIEnteringthepost-pandemiceratheautosectorwhichwaswithpremiumvaluationbeforehasalsoenteredastageofmarginalrepairWiththefurtherrecoveryofthemarketandtheexpectationoffavourablefactorsintheindustrysuchasinthedemandandpolicysideautosectoropportunitieslieinOEMsandsomecomponentscompanieswillalsobenefitInthepost-pandemicerasalesmayexceedexpectationsWebelievethattheeconomicrecoveryinthepost-pandemicerawilldrivegrowthofautofinalsalescomingfrom1therecoveryofdomesticmarketsalesand2growthofPVexportbusinessMeanwhileevenifsomeauto-relatedpolicieshaveexpiredthemarketneednotbeoverlypessimisticConsideringtheimportantpositionoftheautoindustryinthedomesticeconomyandthecountryseffortstopromotetherecoveryofconsumptionafterthelocalCovid-19epidemicwebelievethatnewcorrespondingsupportpoliciesfortheautoindustrywillbeintroducedinthefuturetostimulateconsumptionIndustrycompetitionisfurtherintensifiedwhichisexpectedtoaccelerateacceptanceandpenetrationgrowthofNEVsTeslassharppricecutsagainhaveputpressureoncompetingmodelsespeciallyintermsofpricingstrategiesSuchstrategiesmaydirectlyleadtopassivechangesinthetimingofpricingstrategiesofothervehiclecompaniesintheautoindustryOverallwecharacterizeTeslaspricecutstrategyasneutralAlthoughitmayaccelerateviciouscompetitioninthedomesticautoindustryitwillalsohelppromoteacceptanceandpenetrationgrowthofNEVsAlandscapeofseveralmajorpowershasbeenformedandtheopportunityisstillinOEMsFortheOEMsectorwerecommendGeelyAuto00175HKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HKforthecomponentssectorwerecommendNexteer01316HKSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of11MorningResearchFocusRiskwarning1Increasingindustrycompetition2salesandpoliciesmayfallshortofexpectationsMarketStrategy-TheDarkestMomentofthePandemicHasPassedTheHongKongEquityMarketHasPricedinConsumptionRecoveryAnalystAndyHuangReportDate2023-01-11SummaryThemainfactorsthataffectedtheperformanceoftheHongKongstockmarketlastweekwerethereopeningofthemainlandChina-HongKongborderpeaksandfallsinCovidpandemiccasesthelaunchofChinasdigitalassettradingplatformandfavorablepoliciesonrealestatedemandsideAsatJanuary6theHangSengIndextheHangSengChinaEnterprisesIndexandtheHangSengTechnologyIndexwereup6165and73respectivelySectorindexesthatoutperformedtheHangSengIndexwereretail124software100foodstaplesretail73media71pharmaceuticals70andrealestate67Policiestoboostdomesticdemandarecontinuingwhiletheprosperityofsomegrowthstockindustriesareshowingsignsofrecovery1TheStateCouncilsJointPreventionandControlMechanismIntegratedGroupoptimizesmeasuresforthemovementofpeoplebetweenmainlandChinaHongKongandMacauwhichisconducivetotherecoveryofofflineconsumptionTheretailsectorwasthebestweeklyperformer2Thelaunchofthedigitalassettradingplatformhashelpedtorevitalizedigitalassetsandinternetsoftwareandmediasectorswerethetopperformers3ThreeministriesexpressedsupportforthepropertysectorandfocusedonresolvingrisksfacedbyrealestateenterprisestherealestatesectoroutperformedtheHangSengIndex4ThephotovoltaicindustryreboundedaspricesofphotovoltaicmainmaterialsfellwithfurtherrecoveryindomesticandexternaldemandexpectedaftertheChineseSpringFestivaloff-seasonHoweverdownwardpressureontheprosperityofautomobilesandconsumerelectronicsisnoteasing1SalesofnewautomobilemanufacturersroseagaininDecemberbutTeslapricecutsdimmedtheindustrysearningsoutlookTheautomobilescomponentsindex54slightlyunderperformedtheHangSengIndex2ApplecutordersresultinginthemarketbeingconcernedabouttheindustrysdemandoutlookThehardwaresectorindex111underperformedtheHangSengIndexIntermsofvaluationandcapitalflowsvaluationsofconsumer-relatedsectorsonwhichsouthboundcapitalandforeignintermediarycapitalwasinconsensussinceNovemberareexpensivewhilecyclicalsectorsarerelativelycheapIntermsofthedomesticCovidepidemicthedarkestmomentofthefirstroundofCovidhaspassedaftertheoptimizationofpreventionpolicyTravelactivityinseveralcitiesincreasedIntermsofindustryallocationwerecommendtolookoutfordomesticandforeignadversityreversalstrategies1Lookformoredemand-sidepoliciessupportingthepropertyindustryandfocusonrealestatefinanceandmaterialssectors2lookforwardtofurtheroptimizationofdomesticpandemicpreventionpolicyrecoveryoftheChinaeconomyandincreasingaverageincomeandfocusonretailhotelsandrestaurantspharmaceuticalsandautomobilessectors3Lookforwardtooverseasliquidityreversalandfocusonliquidity-sensitiveindustriesandsubsectorssuchasinnovativedrugssemiconductorsandgold4LookforwardtoindustrialprosperityreversalandfocusonautomobilesandsemiconductorsectorsRiskfactors1NewCovidstrains2policiestostabilizegrowthmaymissexpectationsMarketStrategyChillHitsUSServiceSectorandLiquidity-motivatedTradingMayAccelerateAnalystEvanLiReportDate2023-01-11SummaryThedisconnectbetweenthemarketandtheUSFederalReservetheFedisexpectedtocontinueinthefirsthalfof2023FedminutesrevealedthemosthawkishstancesinceMay2022TheFedminutesandrecentFedmessagesindicatedthatrateswillstayonholdthrough2023HoweverdespiteFedsignalsthemarketisstillbettingonratecutsinthesecondhalfof2023OntheonehandtheFedshawkishstancestemsfromlagsinmonetarypolicyandrisingupsideriskstoSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of11MorningResearchFocusinflationasaresultpolicymakerswantmoreevidenceofeasinginflationAsthecurrentlevelofinflationiswellabovetheFeds2goalitstandstoreasonthattheFedwillremainhawkishuntilinflationandthejobmarketaresignificantlyeasedInadditiontheFedwarnsmarketsnottounderestimateitsresolvetobringdowninflationastherecentunwantedeasinginfinancialconditionsmightcomplicatetheFedseffortstorestorepricestabilityOntheotherhandmarketsusuallytradeaheadofmarginalchangesincludingwagegrowthslowdownAsthejobmarketremainsresilientthereisstillroomforliquidity-motivatedtradingThecurrentlabormarketisstilltightimplyingthatthecurrenteconomymaybeabletowithstandmoreratehikesAtthesametimeonemonthofslowerwagegrowthisnotenoughtoprovethatwagepressurehaseasedthecurrentjobvacancyrateisstillhighandthelaborforcegapisstilllargeFedChairPowellemphasizedintheDecembermeetingthatthejobmarketneedstoshednearly35millionjobopeningsandfornowithasalongwaytogoThefallingUSISMservicesPMIoffersmoreevidencethatinflationisabatingTheDecemberISMservicesPMIunexpectedlyfellto496inDecembersignificantlylessthantheestimated55andthepreviousvalueof565ItwasthefirsttimethatservicesPMIfellbelowthe50thresholdsinceMay2020TheUSserviceindustrygenerallyconsideredmoreresilientandaccountsformorethantwo-thirdsofUSeconomicactivitiesfellintothecontractionzonejustonemonthafterthemanufacturingPMIcontractedamiddemandweakeningServicedemandmightfurtherweakenduetothecontinuedinterestratehikesandasaresultthelabormarketisexpectedtocooldownfurtherChillhitsUSservicesectorandliquidity-motivatedtradingmayaccelerate1USstocksThebetonliquidityreversalwillcontinueandpressureonvaluationandearningswillgraduallyincrease2USbondsFallinginflationandlooseningexpectationsofinterestratehikeswillcontinuetodriveUSTreasuryratesdown3GoldWeakerUSdollarandfallingUSTreasuryratesareexpectedtoboostgoldpricesRiskwarningLarger-than-forecastedFedrateriseacceleratedglobaleconomicrecessionintensifiedfinancialmarketrisksChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点安踏体育02020HK2022年4季度零售渠道表现符合市场预期分析员汤瀚森事件描述安踏体育安踏或公司公布了2022年第四季度的零售渠道表现整体符合市场预期2022年4季度尽管在2022年10月以来零售环境惨淡安踏品牌零售流水同比下降高单位数好于市场的悲观预期以及国际品牌同期同比降幅FILA零售流水同比下降10-20低段其中FiLA大货FILA儿童及FILAFusion同比分别下降10-20中段10-20低段和上升高单位数FILA电商同比仍实现正增长部分抵消了临时闭店造成的负面影响所有其他品牌的零售流水同比增长10-15保持了户外品类需求上升的增长势头2022全年安踏品牌零售流水同比增长了低单位数而FILA品牌零售流水同比下降了低单位数其他品牌同比增长20-25观点评论2022年第四季度随着公司库存环比改善安踏和FILA品牌折扣水平没有进一步变差公司采取灵活的动态管理务求在多变的经营环境下维持健康的库存水平安踏和FILA品牌零售渠道库销比分别略大于5倍及70-80倍较2022年第3季度末未有变差随着新货占比较2022年3季度提升库存结构环比改善安踏和FILA品牌整体折扣水平同比持平其中FILA正价商品折扣率小于20投资建议我们对公司2022年净利润预期偏保守但对2023年的销售复苏更为乐观2022年公司已执行严格的成本控制措施以削减经营开支但仍不足以完全抵销疫情对安踏DTC模式和FILA直营销售的影响因此我们预计更高费用成本由于负向杠杆效应将拖累公司2022年利润增速但值得欣慰的是随着人们逐渐康复并获得抗体我们看到元旦三天假期期间公司销售增速已同比转正考虑到2021第一季度同期高基数以及人们预期收入下降因素管理层对2023年第一季度销售增速持较保守态度我们预计公司销售增速将在2023年第二季度逐步回升尽管复苏节奏可能仍不稳定我们也预计公司库存和折扣水平将继续改善并在2023Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of11MorningResearchFocus年第二季度回归正常水平公司目前的目标价为10600港元投资评级为买入我们或将在下一份公司报告中检视我们的目标价与投资评级TableLatestchi最新报告快讯舜宇光学02382HK2022年全年出货量点评车载镜头销售相对强劲手机镜头双位数下滑评级收集6-18m目标价HK13100分析员柳晨报告日期2023-01-11报告摘要2022年12月舜宇光学公司的出货量数据反映了仍然疲弱的智能手机市场需求2022年12月手机镜头和手机摄像模组的出货量分别同比下滑了401和289尤其是手机镜头2022年12月出现了相对较大的205环比下滑这主要是由于一些客户在年底进行了库存管控车载镜头2022年12月出货量环比下滑336主要是受客户端圣诞节假期的影响2022年全年车载镜头出货量同比上升161同期手机镜头出货量同比下滑172我们预计公司的车载镜头业务将维持较强的增长动能考虑到1汽车供应链中关键零部件缺货问题逐步得到缓解以及2新能源汽车和智能化汽车发展加速虽然近期中国对疫情动态清零政策的调整有可能刺激国内对消费电子产品的需求但我们预计智能手机需求和规格升级趋势的明显修复仍需时日考虑到与北美和韩国大客户的稳定合作我们预计公司2023年的手机镜头出货量对于全球消费电子市场的恢复将会非常敏感公司将在香港发行以美元计价的可持续发展挂钩债券来进行再融资该债券的总发行额度为4亿美元年化票息率595该债券计划于2023年1月17日正式发行并于2026年7月17日到期初始发行价为本金金额的99788公司计划将此次发行的所得款项净额用于现有债务的再融资该债券的穆迪评级预计为Baa1我们对于公司2023年出货量的修复持乐观态度我们预计2023年将是苹果的创新大年一些主力新品的性能将得到显著提高而其革命性的混合现实MR设备也已经呼之欲出因此中长期来看整个苹果供应链有望深度受益于需求恢复与产品升级然而加息与持续性的新冠疫情影响给全球消费电子市场带来了更多不确定性一些投资者相信转折点将出现在2023年下半年我们目前对公司的投资评级为收集每股目标价为13100港元目标价相当于240倍2024年市盈率行业报告博彩行业澳门疫情管控措施结束评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员NoahHudson报告日期2023-01-11报告摘要澳门与中国内地同步在1月8日取消了几乎所有疫情管控相关的旅行限制尽管旅行承载力有限澳门的跨境旅行规则基本上恢复了疫情前的范式开放首日澳门游客量仅为2019年的367意味着有很大的增长空间我们维持跑赢大市的行业评级并建议在股价回调时收集我们认为在未来几周和几个月内如果澳门博彩业实际业绩未达到市场预期投资者情绪肯定会先回调走低但随后会继续改善趋势虽然可能不稳定但我们预计澳门博彩业的上升趋势将持续贯穿2023年特别是在2023年下半年因此我们认为短期不及预期和股价回调都将是收集机会我们建议逢低收集尤其是股价波动性较大的博彩股自疫情开始以来一般在市场不是最受欢迎的美高梅中国02282HK和永利澳门01128HK的股价从低点升至高点创最大涨幅从2020年开始美高梅中国02282HK和永利澳门01128HK的股价由历史低点升至历史高点涨幅分别为2498和2272风险2023年澳门博彩业复苏的步伐仍高度不确定可能不稳定或低于预期短期内如果春节或一月的业绩访客数量或博彩收入令人失望股价可能会回调Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of11MorningResearchFocus行业报告建筑工程行业香港公营房屋投资未来五年将大幅增加总市场规模达千亿港元评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员黄家玮报告日期2023-01-11报告摘要我们认为香港特区政府正在从一个小型不干预型政府转型至一个大型积极主动型政府政府主导的投资将大幅增加其中公营房屋投资必然是最重要的投资范畴因为住房问题是民生问题的核心此外我们预计新公共住房中组装合成法建筑的使用将大幅增加以实现激进的建屋目标我们预计未来5年公营房屋建设总支出将会达到1479亿港元相当于2023-2027年平均每年支出296亿港元较2022年预算支出221亿港元增加34此外由于公营房屋需求远未得到满足但供应能力则有潜在的空余我们认为未来建设目标可能会进一步上调中国建筑国际03311HK作为香港最大的公营房屋工程承建商将最为受益于公营房屋投资的大幅增长我们的目标价为1420港元对应81倍72倍64倍202220232024年市盈率投资评级为买入此外中国建筑兴业00830HK作为香港最大的玻璃幕墙工程承建商将是未来十年政府大幅增加体育设施和医院投资的主要受益者之一我们的目标价为266港元对应93倍66倍46倍202220232024年市盈率投资评级为买入汽车行业双周报后疫情时代下汽车行业竞争加剧边际修复已开启评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员吴凯翔报告日期2023-01-11报告摘要港股已进入新一轮反弹汽车行业边际修复已开启我们对市场的看法逐步乐观并再次强调行业2022年第四季度悲观情绪已被市场反映2022年疫情管控对下游消费造成冲击叠加悲观销量预期和激烈竞争格局等因素导致汽车指数落后于恒指进入后疫情时代此前被杀估值的汽车板块也进入边际修复阶段随着市场进一步回暖叠加需求和政策端等行业利好因素出现的预期汽车板块机会仍在于整车个别零部件企业也将受益后疫情时代销量存在超预期可能我们认为后疫情时代经济复苏会带动汽车终端销量增长一是来自国内市场销售回暖二是来自出口业务增长同时即使部分汽车相关政策已到期市场也不必过分悲观考虑到汽车行业在国内经济的重要地位以及国家在促进疫情后消费复苏我们认为未来会出台新的针对汽车行业的相应扶持政策来刺激消费行业竞争进一步加剧有望加快新能源汽车的接受度提升和渗透率增长特斯拉再次大幅降价给同行竞争车型造成压力尤其是在定价策略上这可能直接引致同行其他车企定价策略时点被动转变整体而言我们定性此次特斯拉降价策略为偏中性虽然可能会加速国内汽车行业恶性竞争但也有助于推动新能源汽车的接受度提升和渗透率增长多强格局已形成机会仍在整车整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HK长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HK风险提示1行业竞争加剧2销量和政策端不及预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of11MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of11MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer11of11