国资委进一步优化央企经营指标体系,运营商继续高质量发展。1月5日,国资委召开央企负责人会议,其中进一步优化了央企经营指标体系为“一利五率”,具体包括利润总额增速要高于全国GDP增速,资产负债率总体保持稳定,净资产收益率、研发经费投入强度、全员劳动生产率、营业现金比率4个指标进一步提升。相比之前的“两利四率”,变化一是不再要求净利润增速高于国民经济增速,只保留利润总额增速高于GDP增速;二是新增考核“净资产收益率、营业现金比率”进一步提升;三是继续强化“研发经费投入强度、全员劳动生产率”这两项指标的提升。从这些考核变化来看,对于电信运营商,一是要继续保持净利润稳步抬升,这对运营商保持较好股息率也有保障;二是控制资本开支规模,三大运营商也计划2023年起继续控制资本开支,三年后资本开支占收比降至20%以内;三是未来运营商将继续提升研发投入,尤其在数字经济相关的领域,也为新兴业务拓展和孵化做好基础;四是全员劳动生产率将继续促进运营商提质增效。
运营环境新变革,运营商持续价值重估。运营商营运环境优化,电信业务持续企稳使得运营商愈被作为核心资产交易;“普遍互联网接入”的角色向“社会创新赋能”转换,运营商在云计算、数据要素、垂直行业赋能、算力核心等方面有更广阔空间,价值重估将会持续。 我们给予行业“跑赢大市”评级。推荐中国移动(00941 HK)、中国电信(00728 HK)、中国联通(00762 HK)和中兴通讯(00763 HK)。 风险提示:“东数西算”和5G落地进程不及预期、云计算发展或不及预期。 研究报告全文:股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportTelecommunicationsSectorGinYu余劲同行业报告通信行业8675523976686ginyugtjascomhk9January2023BiTableMainInfo-WeeklyWrapSASACOptimizedtheAssessmentSystem行双周报国资委优化考核体系业SASACoptimizedtheoperatingindicatorsystemofcentralgovernment-ownedenterprisesandoperatorscontinuedtodevelopwithRatingTableInvestInfo报OutperformhighqualityOn5thJanSASACheldameetingwithrepresentativesofcentralMaintainedgovernment-ownedenterprisesInthemeetingthemanagementindexsystem告SectorReportofcentralgovernment-ownedenterpriseswasfurtheroptimizedasoneprofit评级跑赢大市维持andfiveratesSpecificallythisincludestherequirementthatgrowthrateoftotal2profitbehigherthanthenationalGDPgrowthrateasset-liabilityratioremainstableandthefourindicatorsofROERDinvestmenttotallaborproductivityCumulativetelecomrevenueYoYgrowthandoperatingcashratiobefurtherimprovedComparedwiththeprevioustworatebenefitsandfourratesthefirstchangeisthatthegrowthrateofnetprofitisno电信业务收入累计增速longerrequiredtobehigherthanthegrowthrateofthenationaleconomyandCumulativeTelecomRevenueYoYGrowthRateonlythegrowthrateoftotalprofitisrequiredtobehigherthanthegrowthrateofCumulativeEmergingBusinessRevenueYoYGrowthRate40363363GDPSecondlyrequirementtofurtherimprovetheROEandoperatingcash350343351341331ratiowasaddedThirdistocontinuetostrengthenimprovementontwo35334326indicatorsofRDinvestmentandlaborproductivityJudgingfromthese3034125changesfortelecomoperatorsitisnecessarytocontinuetomaintainasteady284278证netprofitgrowthwhichalsoguaranteesbetterdividendyieldSecondisto20告controlthescaleofcapitalexpenditurethethreemajoroperatorsalsoplanto15券908180938885838382controlcapitalexpenditurecontinuouslyfrom2023andafterthreeyearsthe10828080研报proportionofcapitalexpendituretorevenuewillbereducedtolessthan20In5additioninthefutureoperatorswillcontinuetoincreaseRDinvestment0究究Jan-NovJan-FebJan-AprJan-JunJan-AugJan-OctespeciallyinareasrelatedtothedigitaleconomythustolayasolidfoundationResearchReport20212022报研foremergingbusinessincubationandexpansionFinallyrequirementontotallaborproductivitywillpromoteoperatorstoimprovequalityandefficiencySourcetheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology告券continuouslyEquityGrowthintotalnumberofmobilephoneDuetochangesintheoperatingenvironmenttelecomoperatorscontinue证userstoberevaluatedAstheoperatingenvironmentforoperatorsisoptimizedand运营商移动电话用户总数增长telecombusinesscontinuestobestabilizedoperatorsareincreasinglyregardedMillionTotalMobileUsersLHSYoYGrowthRHSascoreassetsfortransactionsOperatorshaveshiftedfromtheroleofuniversalinternetaccesstosocialinnovationempowermentMeanwhile1700416804operatorshavebroaderspaceintermsofcloudcomputingdataelements16603verticalindustryempowermentandcorecomputingpowerItisbelievedthat16403Tvaluerevaluationwillcontinue16202aWegiveanOutperformratingWerecommendChinaMobile00941HK16002ChinaTelecom00728HKChinaUnicom00762HKandZTE00763HK15801b15601RiskWarningSlower-than-expectedconstructionofEast-to-WestComputing15400通lResourceTransferProject5Gdevelopmentandcloudcomputing1520-11500-1信e国资委进一步优化央企经营指标体系运营商继续高质量发展1月5日国资委召开央企负行责人会议其中进一步优化了央企经营指标体系为一利五率具体包括利润总额增速要业高于全国GDP增速资产负债率总体保持稳定净资产收益率研发经费投入强度全员劳SourcetheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyL动生产率营业现金比率4个指标进一步提升相比之前的两利四率变化一是不再要求净利润增速高于国民经济增速只保留利润总额增速高于GDP增速二是新增考核净资e产收益率营业现金比率进一步提升三是继续强化研发经费投入强度全员劳动生产fSectorTelecommunications率这两项指标的提升从这些考核变化来看对于电信运营商一是要继续保持净利润稳步抬升这对运营商保持较好股息率也有保障二是控制资本开支规模三大运营商也计划t2023年起继续控制资本开支三年后资本开支占收比降至20以内三是未来运营商将继续M提升研发投入尤其在数字经济相关的领域也为新兴业务拓展和孵化做好基础四是全员劳动生产率将继续促进运营商提质增效a运营环境新变革运营商持续价值重估运营商营运环境优化电信业务持续企稳使得运营r商愈被作为核心资产交易普遍互联网接入的角色向社会创新赋能转换运营商在g云计算数据要素垂直行业赋能算力核心等方面有更广阔空间价值重估将会持续我们给予行业跑赢大市评级推荐中国移动00941HK中国电信00728HK中国联通i00762HK和中兴通讯00763HKn风险提示东数西算和5G落地进程不及预期云计算发展或不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4Se1maybebemayapplicationinternetindustrialandservicestrafficofdevelopmentexpectedthanlessbemaycomputingcloudofdevelopmentRHK00763Investmentproductsindustry203in31and2025in8reachwillFTTRofratepenetrationthethatgigabitanddelayspeedcoveragehomeassuchconsumptionupgradeofbroadbandserviceshasputforwardhigherrequirementsfortheentirebroaofpositioninghighthevisionHuaweistoAccordingofdeploymentbusinessorstrategicConsideringtargetincreaseof5248millionovertheendof939forusersaccessbroadbanddomestic2022NovemberofendMIITthebygofnumbertheandhouseholdsmillion400covertoabilityTechnologyInformationandIndustryof10promotetostartinggraduallyupgradesareserviceshomedigitalandboomingisconstructionbroadbandGigabitindustryverticalelementsdatacomputingcloudoftermsinempowerspacebroaderhaveoperatorsMeanwhileempowermentincreasinglyareoperatorsstabilizeduniversalofrolethefrombeshiftedhaveOperatorstransactionsassetsforcoreasregardedtocontinuesbusinesstelecomandoptimizedisoperatorsofenvironmentoperatingplacetakenhavechangesNewqualityandefficemergingtocontinuewillyearstheproportionthreeofcapitalexpendituretorevenuereducedtowilllessbethan20expenditucapitalofscaleprofitnetsteadymaintaintocontinuetonecessaryimprovementGDPSecondlynationtheofrategrowththehibetorequiredlongernoisprofitnetofrategrowththethatischangef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