快讯:电子行业:中国台湾版“芯片法案”获得通过，未来6年将提供更多税务减免
　　评级：跑赢大市   6-18m   目标价: n.a.
　　分析员：柳晨   报告日期: 2023-01-09
　　报告摘要
　　中国台湾“立法院”于2023年1月7日通过了《产业创新条例》修正案，为当地龙头科技企业提供最高可达所得税50%的税务减免。继美国政府2022年8月通过《2022芯片与科学法案》之后，中国台湾也推出了自己的法案来支持本地的科技产业链。《产业创新条例》下的税务减免主要针对的是在全球供应链中取得关键地位的本土半导体、5G和电动汽车企业。目前申请上述税务减免的要求细节仍未公布，例如对先进制程的定义。一些中国台湾半导体企业已经对这项新的法案表示欢迎，包括日月光、力积电以及国巨等。台积电将于北京时间2023年1月12日下午2时举行其2022年第四季度业绩会。我们期待在业绩电话会议上听到更多台积电关于该新法案的见解。
　　虽然在拜登政府的压力下台积电已经向美国转移了部分先进制程产能，但中国台湾仍希望在全球半导体供应链中保持其领先地位。2022年12月6日，台积电宣布在其位于亚利桑那州的首个晶圆厂（计划2024年量产N4制程工艺）之后，台积电将在该州建设第二个晶圆厂（计划2026年量产3纳米制程工艺）。2022年12月29日，台积电在位于台南科学工业园的晶圆18厂施工现场举行了3纳米制程量产和产能扩张典礼。台积电还计划在新竹科学园区的晶圆20厂建立新一代2纳米产能。我们相信台积电的高管团队仍然希望能尽可能地将公司最先进的制程工艺产能保留在中国台湾。
　　我们看好参与建立自主可控集成电路产业链的中国大陆关键半导体企业。在逆全球化大潮下，各个国家都在尝试强化自身的科技产业链，其中集成电路的制造是最重要的战略重心之一。2022年11月，8家日本顶尖科技企业联合成立了Rapidus公司来推动日本2纳米制程工艺的研发，其中包含丰田、索尼、日本电气、日本电信电话、日本电装、铠侠（前东芝存储）等。对中国大陆来说，建立自主可控的集成电路供应链迫在眉睫。虽然来自美国及其盟友的制裁将构成短期扰动，但中国大陆的半导体产业仍能从海外供应商手中获得部分制造设备以及材料。从中长期来看，我们预计随着国产化率的稳步提升，国产半导体产品的替代进程将会进一步加速。

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleEquityResearchResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus10January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变FlashNoteATaiwanProvinceElectronicsVersionoftheChipActPassed--Outperform--NSectorProvidingGreaterTaxCutsintheNext6Years快讯中国台湾版芯片法案获得通过电子行业--跑赢大市--否证未来6年将提供更多税务减免告券SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapBankingDemand-SideSupportfortheReal研报--Outperform--NSectorEstateIndustryBeingFurther究究PromotedOutperform行业报告双周报对房地产行业需求侧银行行业--跑赢大市--否报研的支持进一步推进跑赢大市告SectorReportReviewofNEAsBlue券EnergyPaperonPowerSystemEquityResearchReportOperationsTransformationClearer--Outperform--N证SectorTransformationPathwayTransformationinAcceleration行业报告国家能源局电力系统转型蓝皮能源运营行业书点评转型路径更为清晰转型进入加--跑赢大市--否速期SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapTelecommunicSASACOptimizedtheAssessment--Outperform--NationsSectorSystem通信行业行业报告双周报国资委优化考核体系--跑赢大市--否TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题GTJA2023A-sharemarketOutlookThebeginningofanewroundofbull09January2023StrategymarketConsumptionVouchers-TheRemedytoImproveConsumptionStrategy09January2023DemandAppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of11MorningResearchFocusHSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2138834189156423812405恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE728607199-122541567548国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4570723153828550033687500科技指数港股市值深市市值SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatJan9PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻WagegrowthacrosstheeurozoneisexpectedtobeverystronginthecomingquarterstheECBwrotestrengtheningthecaseforfurtherinterestratehikeHoweverwithhighinflationrealwagesacrosseurozonecouldyetfall欧洲央行发文表示预计未来几个季度整个欧元区的工资增长预计将非常强劲这加强了进一步加息的理由但鉴于通胀仍居高不下实际工资仍有可能下滑Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of11MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsFlashNoteElectronicsSectorATaiwanProvinceVersionoftheChipActPassedProvidingGreaterTaxCutsintheNext6YearsRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystJackLiuReportDate2023-01-09SummaryTheLegislatureofTaiwanProvincepassedtheAmendmentsonActforIndustrialInnovationon7thJan2023providinglocalleadingtechnologyenterpriseswithincometaxdeductionsofupto50FollowingbyUSgovernments2022ChipandScienceActinAug2022TaiwanProvincehasalsopasseditsownlegislativebilltosupportthelocalsciencetechnologyindustrychainThetaxdeductionpolicyunderActforIndustrialInnovationmainlytargetslocalenterprisesthatspecializeinsemiconductors5GandelectricvehicleswithakeypositionintheglobalsupplychainAtthisstagedetailedrequirementsforapplyingfortheaforementionedtaxdeductionisyettobefinalizedsuchasthedefinitionofadvancedprocessSeveralkeyplayersintheTaiwanProvincesemiconductorssupplychainhavealreadyshownpositiveresponsestothisnewactincludingASEPowerChipYageoetcTaiwanSemiconductorManufacturingCoLtdTSMCwillholdits4Q2022earningsconferenceat1400BeijingtimeGMT8on12thJan2023welookforwardtohearingmoreregardingthisnewactfromTSMCduringtheearningsconferencecallTable-1KeydifferencesbetweenthepreviousandnewtaxpoliciesFrom1stJanuary2023toTaxdeductionitemBefore1stJanuary202331stDecember202925ofsuchexpenseForward-lookinginnovativeRDexpense10-15ofsuchexpenseCap30ofincometax5ofsuchexpenseAdvancedprocessequipmentexpensenilCap30ofincometaxIfanenterpriseappliestaxdeductionforbothitemsTotalCap50ofincometaxSourceUnitedDailyNewsTaiwanGuotaiJunanInternationalAlthoughTSMCtransferredpartialadvancedprocessproductioncapacityintotheUSunderpressurefromtheBidenadministrationTaiwanProvincestillwantstomaintainitsleadingpositionintheglobalsemiconductorssupplychainOn6Dec2022TSMCannouncedthatinadditiontoitsfirstwaferproductionfacilityfabinArizonascheduledtobeginproductionofN4processtechnologyin2024TSMCalsostartedtheconstructionofasecondfabscheduledtobeginproductionof3nmprocesstechnologyin2026On29Dec2022TSMCheldits3nmvolumeproductionandcapacityexpansionceremonyatitsfab18newconstructionsiteintheSouthernTaiwanScienceParkTSMCisalsoplanningtoestablishitsnext-gen2nmproductioncapacityinitsfab20inHsinchuScienceParkWebelievethattheseniormanagementofTSMCstillwantstokeeptheproductioncapacityofitsmostadvancedprocessesinsideTaiwanProvinceWearebullishonkeysemiconductorenterprisesinmainlandChinathatwillparticipateintheestablishmentofaself-controllableintegratedcircuitICsupplychainUnderthede-globalizationtidemanycountriesaretryingtostrengthentheirownsciencetechnologysupplychaininwhichintegratedcircuitmanufacturingisoneofthemostsignificantstrategicfocusesInNov2022eightleadingtechnologyenterprisesinJapanjointlyestablishedRapidusCompanytopromotethedevelopmentofJapanese2nmproductioncapacityincludingToyotaSonyNipponElectricCompanyNECNipponTelegraphandTelephoneCorporationNTTDensoKioxiaformerlyknownasToshibaMemoryetcFormainlandChinaestablishingaself-controllableintegratedcircuitsupplychainisimminentAlthoughsanctionsfromtheUSanditsallieswillcreateshort-termdisturbancethesemiconductorsindustryinmainlandChinastillhasaccesstomanufacturingequipmentandmaterialsfromoverseassuppliersInthemediumtolongtermweexpecttheprocessofdomesticsemiconductorsproductreplacementtofurtheracceleratealongsidesteadyimprovementinlocalizationrateSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of11MorningResearchFocusSectorReportBankingSectorBi-WeeklyWrapDemand-SideSupportfortheRealEstateIndustryBeingFurtherPromotedOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystRichardCaoReportDate2023-01-09SummaryAccordingtothemeetingsheldbythePBOCon28December2022andon4January2023thePBOCexpressedthatitwillincreasefinancialsupportfortheinfrastructureindustryanddomesticdemandin2023ThePBOCemphasizedkeepingeffectivegrowthoftotalcreditfromenhancingstablecreditgrowthpreviouslyWethinksuchtonechangesmeananupsidebiasforloansgrowthandweexpectthattotalnewloanswillrecordgoodYoYgrowthin2023Regulatorsfurtherexpressedtoprovidefinancialsupportfortherealestateindustryanddemand-sidesupportfortherealestateindustryhasbeenfurtherpromotedwhichisexpectedtobenefiteconomicstabilizationandrecoveryRecentlythePBOCandChinaBankingRegulatoryCommissionfurtherexpressedtoprovidefinancialsupportfortherealestateindustrytoensurethesteadydevelopmentoftherealestatemarketInadditionthePBOCandChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionannouncedtoestablishadynamicadjustmentmechanismforthefirsthomeloaninterestratepolicyWethinktheestablishmentofdynamicadjustmentmechanismshowsthegovernmentsattitudetostabilizetherealestatemarketwhichwillimprovemarketconfidenceMeanwhilethenumberofcitieswhichrelaxpoliciesrelatedtohousepurchasinghascontinuedtoincreaseWemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023WepickmainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofrealestatepoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresultsperformanceisexpectedtobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWerecommendCMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKWealsorecommendBOCHK02388HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefitfromtheUSFederalReservescontinuousinterestratehikesandthatearningsgrowthisexpectedtoremaingoodin2023RiskfactorsThedeclineintheeconomymaybebeyondexpectationstheresultsofpoliciesmaynotbeinlineSectorReportEnergyOperationsSectorReviewofNEAsBluePaperonPowerSystemTransformationClearerTransformationPathwayTransformationinAccelerationRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystPeterShaoReportDate2023-01-09SummaryIdentifyingthreephasesofpowersystemtransformationandspecifyingtransformationtargetsfortherun-upto2030ChinasNationalEnergyAgencyNEArecentlyreleasedtheconsultationdraftofBluePaperonNew-TypePowerSystemDevelopment新型电力系统发展蓝皮书征求意见稿whichidentifiedthreephasesofpowersystemtransformationietheaccelerationphasenowtill2030theoverallformationphase2030-2045andthefacilitationandcompletionphase2045-2060Thebluepaperspecifiedthetaskofpromotingnewenergyasthedominantsourceofincrementalpowersupplywithtwoquantitativetargets1newenergyshouldaccountforover40oftotalinstalledcapacityby2030202127and2powergenerationfromnewenergyshouldaccountforover20oftotalgenerationby2030202112AssuchweestimatethatpowergenerationfromnewenergywillgrowbyaCAGRof176in2022-2030aperiodidentifiedbythebluepaperastheaccelerationphaseFourinonetransformationframeworkThebluepaperidentifiedafourinonenew-typepowersystembasedonthepreconditionofsafetyandefficiencythecoretargetofdecarbonisationthevitalsupportprovidedbyflexibilityandthebasicprotectionfromsmartintegrationToestablishthenewsystemthebluepapersuggestsfasterandbroaderelectrificationinenergyintensesectorssuchastheindustrialandtransportationsectorstargetingtoraiseelectricitysshareinterminalenergyconsumptionfromabout265in2020to35in2030demandsideitalsospecifiedhighpenetrationofnewenergyasthemaintaskwhilereiteratingtheimportanceofcoal-firedpowerasthecornerstoneofpowersystemsecuritybefore2030supplysideInlightoftheEnergyTrilemmaframeworkweareoftheviewthatpolicyconcernonpowertariffscouldgivewaytoenergysecurityanddecarbonisationwhichisgainingmomentumasChinaspowersystemtransformationdeepensWebelievetheedgeofregulatingpowersourcessuchasthermalpowerandenergystoragewillbemoreapparentasChinapushesforwardelectrificationwithincreaseddemandfluctuationandsuchedgewillleadtoimprovedbusinessmodelasChinacontinuestopromotemarketmechanismsinthepowersectorInvestmentsuggestionMaintainOutperformforthesectoronboththepotentialofearningsgrowthandvaluationre-rateamidpowersystemtransformationOursectortoppickisCPID02380HKwithaBuyratingandaTPofSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of11MorningResearchFocusHK425SectorReportTelecommunicationsSectorBi-WeeklyWrapSASACOptimizedtheAssessmentSystemRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGinYuReportDate2023-01-09SummarySASACoptimizedtheoperatingindicatorsystemofcentralgovernment-ownedenterprisesandoperatorscontinuedtodevelopwithhighqualityOn5thJanSASACheldameetingwithrepresentativesofcentralgovernment-ownedenterprisesInthemeetingthemanagementindexsystemofcentralgovernment-ownedenterpriseswasfurtheroptimizedasoneprofitandfiveratesSpecificallythisincludestherequirementthatgrowthrateoftotalprofitbehigherthanthenationalGDPgrowthrateasset-liabilityratioremainstableandthefourindicatorsofROERDinvestmenttotallaborproductivityandoperatingcashratiobefurtherimprovedComparedwiththeprevioustwobenefitsandfourratesthefirstchangeisthatthegrowthrateofnetprofitisnolongerrequiredtobehigherthanthegrowthrateofthenationaleconomyandonlythegrowthrateoftotalprofitisrequiredtobehigherthanthegrowthrateofGDPSecondlyrequirementtofurtherimprovetheROEandoperatingcashratiowasaddedThirdistocontinuetostrengthenimprovementontwoindicatorsofRDinvestmentandlaborproductivityJudgingfromthesechangesfortelecomoperatorsitisnecessarytocontinuetomaintainasteadynetprofitgrowthwhichalsoguaranteesbetterdividendyieldSecondistocontrolthescaleofcapitalexpenditurethethreemajoroperatorsalsoplantocontrolcapitalexpenditurecontinuouslyfrom2023andafterthreeyearstheproportionofcapitalexpendituretorevenuewillbereducedtolessthan20InadditioninthefutureoperatorswillcontinuetoincreaseRDinvestmentespeciallyinareasrelatedtothedigitaleconomythustolayasolidfoundationforemergingbusinessincubationandexpansionFinallyrequirementontotallaborproductivitywillpromoteoperatorstoimprovequalityandefficiencycontinuouslyDuetochangesintheoperatingenvironmenttelecomoperatorscontinuetoberevaluatedAstheoperatingenvironmentforoperatorsisoptimizedandtelecombusinesscontinuestobestabilizedoperatorsareincreasinglyregardedascoreassetsfortransactionsOperatorshaveshiftedfromtheroleofuniversalinternetaccesstosocialinnovationempowermentMeanwhileoperatorshavebroaderspaceintermsofcloudcomputingdataelementsverticalindustryempowermentandcorecomputingpowerItisbelievedthatvaluerevaluationwillcontinueWegiveanOutperformratingWerecommendChinaMobile00941HKChinaTelecom00728HKChinaUnicom00762HKandZTE00763HKRiskWarningSlower-than-expectedconstructionofEast-to-WestComputingResourceTransferProject5GdevelopmentandcloudcomputingGTJAStrategy2023A-sharemarketOutlookThebeginningofanewroundofbullmarketGTJAStrategyteamReportDate2023-01-09SummaryGeneraltrendsThebeginningofanewroundofbullmarketWebelievethatuncertaintiesonkeyissuessuchastheCovidpandemictheeconomyandpoliticswilldeclinein2023andwearefirmlybullishontheA-sharemarketin20231Chinawillusherinanewcycleofimproveddemandassetreturnsandearningsexpectationsin23Q2owingtoapivotalturnfromrepressivepolicytotherelaxingofpandemicrestrictionsandre-expansionofmidstreamdownstreammarginsCPI-PPI2Investorriskappetitewillpickupduetoagradualincreaseincertaintiesinboththeinternalandexternalmacroenvironment3TheconcurrenceofpolicybottomeconomicbottomandvaluationbottomoftenimplieshandsomereturnsInvestmentroomandpaceTheA-sharemarketisexpectedtoshowanN-shapedupwardtrendTheA-sharemarketisexpectedtoshowanN-shapedupwardtrendin2023duetothecomplexitiessurroundingCovidpandemicdevelopmenteconomicrecoveryandthesuperpowergameThefirststrokeofNwasformedattheendofOctoberThemarketexperiencedfluctuationsduetoasurgeinrecordedCovidcasesandpressureonfundamentalsButitisagreatopportunitytoadjustportfoliosgiventheupcomingeconomicrestartneweconomicelementsandthestill-sluggishmarketexpectationsWeforecastthattheSHCOMPwillincreasebymorethan20andlowvaluationweightstocksareexpectedtoformastrongpullontheindexThereforeenlargingpositionswillhelpinvestorsbenefitfrommarginalSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of11MorningResearchFocuschangesandcyclicaltrendsInvestmentstyleLookformarginalchangesandprioritizevalueovergrowthThemacroenvironmentisgainingcertaintytheinvestmentstyleshouldshiftfromlookingforcertaintyandgrowthtochangeandresilienceProcyclicaltrendsandgrowthareexpectedtooutperformmarketexpectationsItisadvisabletoinvestinvaluestocksfirstthengrowthstocksOpportunitiesinearly2023willcomefromtheoverpricingofeconomicrisksanddeepcorrectionsinvaluestocksoverthepasttwoyearsThemarketreversalwillmainlybereflectedinconsumptionrealestateandfinancialsattributingtoanticipateddomesticdemandexpansionandpost-pandemicrecoveryLateropportunitieslieintechnologymanufacturingthatenhancesindependentlydevelopedandindustrialpolicyespeciallyinequipmentandmaterialsowingtothelong-termtrendofanti-globalizationandsuperpowergamingFocusareasOpportunitieswillemergeinareasrelatedtodomesticdemandnationalsecurityandSOEsWedoubledownonprocyclicalvaluestocksthatwillbenefitfromcurrentlowexpectationsimprovementintheeconomicoutlookandpolicychangesRecommendationsFinancialsbrokeragebankingconsumptionfoodandbeveragehoteltourismduty-freeairlinesandrealestatebuildingmaterialsconstructionfurniturehomeappliancesAstheeconomystabilizesindustrialdevelopmentfocuswillbeonstrengtheningweakpartsandindependentsecurityRecommendationsEquipmentelectronicscomputerscommunicationsdefensemachinerymaterialsnon-ferroussteelchemicalandpharmaceuticalinnovativedrugsmedicaldevicesmedicalservicesThematicinvestmentsleadingSOEsinnationalsystem-buildingmarketunificationproductioncapacityexportmanufacturingcentralSOEsandtheBeltandRoadInitiativeRisksRecoveryofthedemandsideofrealestateisslowerthanexpectedTheimpactofthepandemicontheeconomyismorethanexpectedTheoverseasmonetarytighteninglastslongerthanexpectedGlobalgeopoliticsisfilledwithuncertaintyMarketStrategy-ConsumptionVouchers-TheRemedytoImproveConsumptionDemandStrategyTeamAndyHuangJakeWangReportDate2023-01-09SummaryOptimizingquarantinemeasuresandeasingpropertypolicyarethebeginningofrecoveryin2023consumptionwillbeoneofthemaindriversofsustainedgrowthofthedomesticeconomyWithexpectationofdownwardpressureonoverseasdemandin2023andlimitedinvestmentconsumptionwillbeoneofthemainenginesdrivingtherecoveryofthedomesticeconomyfromthesupplysidetothedemandsideTheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilrecentlyissuedTheOutlineoftheStrategicPlanforExpandingDomesticDemand2022-2035Follow-uppoliciesshouldexceedexpectationsandwillmainlyaddressmeasurestoimproveconsumerspendingpowerwithtoolssuchastaxandfeecutsemploymentprotectionandpromotionoftheconstructionoflow-incomehousingSincethestartoftheCovidpandemictherehavebeentwoperiodsoflargerandmorefrequentpro-consumptionpolicieswhichhaveresultedinsignificantshort-termimprovementsinretailsalesSince2020therehavebeentwolarge-scalepromotionperiodsfromMarchtoJune2020andApriltoJuly2022withthescalerangingfromRMB400milliontoRMB122billionmainlyinthefieldsofclothingdailynecessitiessportsandentertainmentproductshomeappliancesautomobilesandsoonFortheHongKongstockmarketofflineservicesandretailindustrieswilloutperformtheHangSengIndexaftereachoftheannouncementof9roundsoflarge-scalepro-consumptionpoliciesduring2020and2022moreovercertainindustrieswhichreceivedconsumptionpolicysupporthadshort-termexcessreturnsafterthepolicyannouncementBasedonthe9roundsoflarge-scalepro-consumptionpoliciessince2020wefindthat1Aftereachofthe9roundsofpro-consumptionpolicieswerelaunchedtheretailindustryandofflineservices-relatedindustriesoutperformedtheHangSengIndexandtheseindustriesarethegeneralvictorsofpro-consumptionpolicies2Forthespecificsectorssupportedbyeachroundofpro-consumptionpoliciesthecorrespondingindustryindexcanoutperformtheHangSengIndexbyabout5percentagepointswithin10tradingdaysaftertheannouncementofpro-consumptionpoliciesHoweverthelong-termperformanceoftheindexstillneedsfurthersupportfromindustryfundamentalssuchasconsumerelectronicshomeappliancesautomobilesandsemiconductors3AfterSeptember2022theaviationsectoroutperformedtheHangSengIndexafterintroductionofconsumptionpromotionpolicyandthereasonisthatbusinesstravelincreaseswhenthepandemicisundercontrolBasedontheexpectedreturnofthecurrentindustryandpolicydirectionautomobilesconsumerelectronicsretailandhouseholdappliancesindustriesarerecommendedComparedwithindexlevelsofsectorsbeforetheSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of11MorningResearchFocusCovidpandemicinFebruary2022andattheendofJuneindustryindexesareexpectedtohavehigherreturnsIfmoreconsumptionstimuluspoliciesareintroducedinthefutureindustryindexesareexpectedtooutperformtheHangSengIndexInadditionifthescaleofconsumptionpromotionpolicyincreasesinthefuturestrongerperformancefromindustriesislikelyRiskfactors1Thestrengthofdomesticsupportpolicycannotmeetexpectations2OverseasgeopoliticalconflictsChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告快讯电子行业中国台湾版芯片法案获得通过未来6年将提供更多税务减免评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员柳晨报告日期2023-01-09报告摘要中国台湾立法院于2023年1月7日通过了产业创新条例修正案为当地龙头科技企业提供最高可达所得税50的税务减免继美国政府2022年8月通过2022芯片与科学法案之后中国台湾也推出了自己的法案来支持本地的科技产业链产业创新条例下的税务减免主要针对的是在全球供应链中取得关键地位的本土半导体5G和电动汽车企业目前申请上述税务减免的要求细节仍未公布例如对先进制程的定义一些中国台湾半导体企业已经对这项新的法案表示欢迎包括日月光力积电以及国巨等台积电将于北京时间2023年1月12日下午2时举行其2022年第四季度业绩会我们期待在业绩电话会议上听到更多台积电关于该新法案的见解表-1新旧税务政策的主要异同2023年1月1日至抵税项目2023年1月1日之前2029年12月31日该支出的25前瞻创新研发支出该支出的10至15上限所得税的30该支出的5先进制程设备支出无上限所得税的30若企业同时申请两项抵税总抵税上限所得税的50资料来源台湾联合报国泰君安国际虽然在拜登政府的压力下台积电已经向美国转移了部分先进制程产能但中国台湾仍希望在全球半导体供应链中保持其领先地位2022年12月6日台积电宣布在其位于亚利桑那州的首个晶圆厂计划2024年量产N4制程工艺之后台积电将在该州建设第二个晶圆厂计划2026年量产3纳米制程工艺2022年12月29日台积电在位于台南科学工业园的晶圆18厂施工现场举行了3纳米制程量产和产能扩张典礼台积电还计划在新竹科学园区的晶圆20厂建立新一代2纳米产能我们相信台积电的高管团队仍然希望能尽可能地将公司最先进的制程工艺产能保留在中国台湾我们看好参与建立自主可控集成电路产业链的中国大陆关键半导体企业在逆全球化大潮下各个国家都在尝试强化自身的科技产业链其中集成电路的制造是最重要的战略重心之一2022年11月8家日本顶尖科技企业联合成立了Rapidus公司来推动日本2纳米制程工艺的研发其中包含丰田索尼日本电气日本电信电话日本电装铠侠前东芝存储等对中国大陆来说建立自主可控的集成电路供应链迫在眉睫虽然来自美国及其盟友的制裁将构成短期扰动但中国大陆的半导体产业仍能从海外供应商手中获得部分制造设备以及材料从中长期来看我们预计随着国产化率的稳步提升国产半导体产品的替代进程将会进一步加速Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of11MorningResearchFocus行业报告银行行业双周报对房地产行业需求侧的支持进一步推进跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员曹柱报告日期2023-01-09报告摘要根据2022年12月28日及2023年1月4日中国人民银行召开的会议中国人民银行表示2023年将会增加对基建行业以及内需的金融支持中国人民银行强调保持总信贷的有效增长此前为提升信贷增长稳定性我们认为此次基调的转变意味着对贷款增长的倾向性上升我们预计2023年新增总贷款将同比录得较好增长监管机构进一步表达了对房地产行业的金融支持以及对房地产行业需求侧支持的进一步推进预计将有利于经济企稳复苏近期中国人民银行及中国银保监会进一步表达了将对房地产行业提供金融支持确保房地产市场平稳发展除此之外中国人民银行及中国银保监会宣布建立首套住房贷款利率政策动态调整机制我们认为动态调整机制的建立显示了政府稳定房地产市场的态度将提升市场信心同时放松购房政策的城市数量继续增长我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐我们推荐招商银行03968HK邮储银行01658HK我们亦推荐中银香港02388HK汇丰控股00005HK其受益于美联储持续加息2023年盈利增速预计维持较好风险因素经济下行超出预期政策效果不及预期行业报告能源运营行业国家能源局电力系统转型蓝皮书点评转型路径更为清晰转型进入加速期评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员邵俊樨报告日期2023-01-09报告摘要提出电力系统三步走转型路径明确2030年前转型目标国家能源局近期发布电力系统发展蓝皮书征求意见稿指出新型电力系统三步走发展路径加速转型期当前至2030年总体形成期2030-2045年巩固完善期2045-2060年蓝皮书明确推动新能源成为电量增量主体提出两个量化目标1到2030年新能源装机占比超过402021年占比272到2030年新能源发电量占比超202021年占比12我们据此测算2022-2030年间蓝皮书指出的加速转型期新能源发电量年化复合增长率将达176四位一体转型框架蓝皮书提出构建四位一体新型电力体系安全高效是基本前提清洁低碳是核心目标柔性灵活是重要支撑智慧融合是基础保障构建新型电力系统背景下蓝皮书提出提速扩围工业交通等重点用能行业的电能替代规划将终端用能电气化水平由2020年的约265提升至2030年的35需求侧蓝皮书还明确了高比例新能源发展主线任务并重申2030年前煤电仍是电力安全保障的压舱石供给侧随着中国电力系统转型的深入能源安全和脱碳的重要性逐步提升我们认为能源不可能三角中的电价约束可能松动我们认为煤电储能等具有调节能力电源的优势将在电力系统转型过程中凸显其商业模式有望随中国推动电力行业市场化机制而得到优化投资建议维持行业跑赢大市评级看好电力系统转型下行业盈利增长和估值重塑的潜力我们的首选股为中国电力02380HK评级买入目标价425港元行业报告通信行业双周报国资委优化考核体系评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员余劲同报告日期2023-01-09报告摘要国资委进一步优化央企经营指标体系运营商继续高质量发展1月5日国资委召开央企负责人会议其中进一步优化Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of11MorningResearchFocus了央企经营指标体系为一利五率具体包括利润总额增速要高于全国GDP增速资产负债率总体保持稳定净资产收益率研发经费投入强度全员劳动生产率营业现金比率4个指标进一步提升相比之前的两利四率变化一是不再要求净利润增速高于国民经济增速只保留利润总额增速高于GDP增速二是新增考核净资产收益率营业现金比率进一步提升三是继续强化研发经费投入强度全员劳动生产率这两项指标的提升从这些考核变化来看对于电信运营商一是要继续保持净利润稳步抬升这对运营商保持较好股息率也有保障二是控制资本开支规模三大运营商也计划2023年起继续控制资本开支三年后资本开支占收比降至20以内三是未来运营商将继续提升研发投入尤其在数字经济相关的领域也为新兴业务拓展和孵化做好基础四是全员劳动生产率将继续促进运营商提质增效运营环境新变革运营商持续价值重估运营商营运环境优化电信业务持续企稳使得运营商愈被作为核心资产交易普遍互联网接入的角色向社会创新赋能转换运营商在云计算数据要素垂直行业赋能算力核心等方面有更广阔空间价值重估将会持续我们给予行业跑赢大市评级推荐中国移动00941HK中国电信00728HK中国联通00762HK和中兴通讯00763HK风险提示东数西算和5G落地进程不及预期云计算发展或不及预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of11MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of11MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer11of11