亚马逊公司的裁员将影响17,000多名员工，这是大型科技公司在过去一年中裁员人数最多的一次，因为该行业在经济不确定性面前正努力缩减开支。
　　周三公布的美联储12月FOMC会议纪要强调了过去六个月困扰央行的棘手沟通任务。美联储官员向投资者发出一反常态的直言不讳的警告，提醒投资者不要低估央行将利率维持在较高水平以降低通胀的决心。
　　美国11月职位空缺几乎稳定在历史高位，进一步证明尽管利率上升和对经济放缓的担忧，劳动力市场在进入2023年之前依然强劲。美国劳工部周三表示，11月份约有1050万个工作岗位，与10月基本持平，远高于新冠大流行前的职位空缺水平。该报告还显示，裁员人数保持在低水平，与一个月前相比，11月辞职的工人比例更大，这表明美国人对他们的就业前景仍然充满信心。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus5January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchNil无点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningTypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题MarketStrategyHKStocksMayPrevailin20234January2023MacroWill680becomeaHurdleforUSD-CNY4January2023NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope证中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据告券AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports研报后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版究究报研HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance告券1400031000EquityResearchReport29000证12000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2079311322149636787647恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE706553339501040765691国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4427174583622110032839100科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatJan3Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻AmazonIncslayoffswillaffectmorethan17000employeesthehighestreductiontallyrevealedinthepastyearatamajortechnologycompanyastheindustryparesbackinthefaceofeconomicuncertaintyaccordingtopeoplefamiliarwiththematter亚马逊公司的裁员将影响17000多名员工这是大型科技公司在过去一年中裁员人数最多的一次因为该行业在经济不确定性面前正努力缩减开支MinutesoftheFedspolicymeetinglastmonthreleasedWednesdayhighlightedthetrickycommunicationstaskthathasvexedthecentralbankoverthepastsixmonthsFederalReserveofficialsoffereduncharacteristicallybluntwordsofwarningtoinvestorsthatcautionedagainstunderestimatingthecentralbanksdeterminationtoholdinterestratesathigherlevelstobringdowninflation周三公布的美联储12月FOMC会议纪要强调了过去六个月困扰央行的棘手沟通任务美联储官员向投资者发出一反常态的直言不讳的警告提醒投资者不要低估央行将利率维持在较高水平以降低通胀的决心JobopeningsheldnearlysteadyathistoricallyhighlevelsinNovemberaddingtoevidencethatthelabormarketremainedstrongheadinginto2023despiterisinginterestratesandconcernsaboutaneconomicslowdownAbout105millionjobswereavailableinNovemberessentiallyunchangedfromOctoberandwellaboveprepandemicopeningslevelstheLaborDepartmentsaidWednesdayThereportalsoshowedlayoffsstayedlowandalargershareofworkersquittheirjobsinNovemberthanamonthearlierasignAmericanswerestillconfidentintheiremploymentprospects美国11月职位空缺几乎稳定在历史高位进一步证明尽管利率上升和对经济放缓的担忧劳动力市场在进入2023年之前依然强劲美国劳工部周三表示11月份约有1050万个工作岗位与10月基本持平远高于新冠大流行前的职位空缺水平该报告还显示裁员人数保持在低水平与一个月前相比11月辞职的工人比例更大这表明美国人对他们的就业前景仍然充满信心Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsMarketStrategyHKStocksMayPrevailin2023StrategyTeamJakeWangAndyHuangEvanLiReportDate2023-01-04SummaryOutlookeconomicupswingtofavortheHongKongstockmarketFromanearningsperspectiveChinaregainedrecoverymomentumwhiletheUSislikelyheadedformildrecessionin2023FromavaluationperspectiveUSinflationisslowingandtheendofFedratehikesisnearingwhichwillbefavorabletothevaluationrecoveryintheHongKongstockmarketGiventhecontrastofrisingeastagainstfallingwestoverseascapitalinflowtotheHongKongstockmarketmayaccelerateIngeneralweexpecttheHongKongstockmarkettobenefitmostfromrisingdomesticeconomyandasofteningUSdollarExpectedreturntheHongKongstockmarketleadstherestoftheglobalmarketBasedonourassumptionsregardingtheindexsearningsgrowthvaluationrepairaswellasdividendratiotheHangSengIndexmayleadothermajorglobalstockindicesin2023witharound30expectedreturnTheindexexpectedreturnin2023maybemostlycontributedbytheupsiderevisioninearningsestimatesaugmentedbyvaluationrepairProgresstheHongKongstockmarketistotakeonathree-stagerocketride1First-stagerocketfavorablepolicystimuluswillcontinuetorolloutandhelprestoremarketrisksentiment2Second-stagerocketUSdollarandUSTreasuryyieldsfallastheUSFedsratehikecycledrawstoanendTheindexvaluationmayseefurtherreratesandweexpecttheHSItorecovertoitspreviouslevelbeforeJun20223Third-stagerocketearningsexpectationsbottomoutasdomesticeconomyimprovesandtheHSImayrecovertoitspositioninearly2022Setbackspolicy-drivenmarkettocontinuewhileeconomicrevivaldrawsnearTheroadtorecoveryistortuousPotentialsetbacksinclude1short-termCovidexitwaveandasaresulteconomicgrowthmomentummightremainvolatile2globalmacroeconomicbackdropandlargerthanexpectedFedtighteningpolicyTheHongKongstockmarketmayexhibitrepeatedcorrectionsalongthewayOpportunitiesdomesticandoverseascatalystsmayleadtoreversalofadversity1ThewrestlingbetweenstrongexpectationsversusweakrealitymaycontinueintheshortrunwhiletheindexisunlikelytobreakitspreviouslowLimitedpull-backsduringmarketcorrectionsmayprovidebuyingopportunities2Asforthepropertysectorweexpectfurtherupsidepotentialfromensuingpolicycatalystsonthedemandsidewhichmayfavorsectorssuchasrealestatebankingmaterialsautomobilescomponentsetc3Asfortheconsumersectorweexpecttoseetwo-stagedrecoverywhichwillbeconducivetosectorslikeretailaccommodationhealthcareautomobilesetcFirstlytheopeningofconsumptionsceneandresidentstravelwillingnessmayimprovegiventheadjustmentsindomesticepidemicpreventionpolicySecondlyastheimpactfromCovidrelapsealleviatesandtheeconomicoutlookturnsbetterresidentsconsumptionpowerandconsumersentimentmayseeimprovementsaccordingly4GivenrecentsignsofeasingonUSinflationoverseasliquidityreversalmayprovideopportunitiestopharmaceuticalssemiconductorsandpreciousmetalssector5WithregardtothepotentialrecoveryinsectorprosperitywesuggestfocusingonsectorssuchasautomobilessemiconductorsetcRiskfactorsInvestorsshouldbewareofgrayrhinosandblackswansin2023suchaspotentialcrisisfromEuropeandebtsandtheChinaTaiwanissueSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusWill680becomeaHurdleforUSD-CNYMacroTeamHaoZhouBillySunReportDate2023-01-04SummaryForthewholeyearof2022theChinesecurrencydepreciatedby786againsttheUSDrankingitinthemiddleofthemajorAsiancurrenciesForthecomingyearweexpecttheChinesecurrencytostrengthenOurconvictionisthat680willnotbecomeahurdleforUSD-CNYandtheUSD-CNYswapcurvewillshifthigherinthefirstquarterof2023AstheFederalReserveFedstighteningdrawstoacloseoveralldollarsoftnesswillbeextendedatleastthroughthefirsthalfof2023ThedownsideriskstotheUSdollarhaveintensifiedastheBankofJapanBOJmightsurprisewithacceleratingpolicytighteningHoweverthemostimportantdrivingfactorfortheCNYisactuallyfromthedomesticfrontTheChineseeconomywillembraceastrongrecoveryin2023withafullCovidreopeninginsightInthemeantimethepolicytoneshavebeenlesshesitantinsupportinggrowthwithafocusondomesticconsumptionWebelievethattheCNYwillcontinueitsstellarrideovertheforeseeablefuturewitheconomicactivitiesrecoveringrapidlyandwithCovidreopeningacceleratingOurbasecaseisthatUSD-CNYwilltouch680andfurtherdownsidecannotbediscountedifeconomicindicatorsarriveinstrongerthanexpectedForUSD-CNYswappointswethinkitwillmovesignificantlyhigherinthecomingmonthstheCNYfundingcouldbetightenedinthecomingweeksorevenmonthsTheChineseNewYearfallsonthelastweekofJanuaryandthecreditextensioninthefirstmonthof2023islikelytobestrongthankstopolicysupportbothofthesefactorscouldresultinashort-termfundingsqueezeintheCNYAssuchtheUSD-CNYforwardcurveislikelytoshifthigherparticularlyontheshort-termtenorNewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEuropeTableNewlyPublished中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AnalystAndyHuang分析员黄凯鸿CurrentMarketCountryIndicatorDataPeriodMoMQoQYoYValueConsensus国家指标名称数据期间环比变动同比变动当期值市场一致预期USISMManuPMIDec48406ppts104ppts485美国ISM制造业PMI12月SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaUniversityofMichiganBloomberg数据来源中国国家统计局密歇根大学彭博ChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无TableLatestchi最新报告Nil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKSENSETIME-W00020HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpubl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