铜价反弹可期，关注美联储加息步伐。从供给-需求基本面，我们预计2023年将有一定的供应过剩，但会在2024-2025年很快消失。由于过去十年矿山资本开支不足，全球铜矿产量增长预计在2023年达峰，并在2024-2025年大幅放缓。2023年中国对铜的需求可期。我们预计2023年铜价在金融属性和商品属性的推动下会有大幅反弹。拥有铜资产的矿业公司将会显著受益于铜价反弹，他们的股价拥有更大的弹性。
　　我们预计铝价在2023年将受供应情况影响而宽幅震荡。我们认为供应冲击的影响已经大幅减轻，但是铝的供应状况仍将显著影响2023年铝价走势。我们对中国的需求增长乐观，因为对地产行业、新能源汽车产业和光伏产业的支持政策都将带来强劲的需求增长。我们认为原铝的生产成本在2023年会上升，并将对铝价形成支撑。
　　我们认为新能源汽车产业的快速发展会带来对铝挤压产品显著的新增需求。对铝材需求的增长主要由两个因素驱动：更高的新能源汽车渗透率和新能源汽车产业对铝材的更多需求。
　　我们推荐紫金矿业(02899 HK),洛阳钼业(03993 HK),中国宏桥(01378 HK)和兴发铝业(00098 HK)。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研TableBasicInfo究SectorReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇Equity行业报告有色金属行业8675523976671yongguogtjascomhk30December2022NonferrousTableMainInfoMetalsSector2023OutlookExpectMetalPricestoRebound有色金属行业2023年展望金属价格反弹可期行CopperpricereboundisexpectedfocusingontheFederalReservespace业ofinterestratehikeFromthesupply-demandfundamentalsweforecastthatRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformtheremaybeasupplysurplusin2023butthesurpluswilldisappearsooninUpgraded报2024-2025Globalcopperminingoutputgrowthisexpectedtopeakin2023告andwillslowgreatlyin2024-2025duetoinsufficientcapitalexpenditurein评级跑赢大市上调SectorReportminingduringthepastdecadeChinasdemandgrowthforcoppercanbe2expectedin2023Weexpectthatcopperpricemaybedrivenbyitsfinancialattributeandcommodityattributeandreboundlargelyin2023MiningBaseMetalPricecompanieswithcopperassetswillbenefitgreatlyfromthereboundofcopper有色金属价格priceandtheirstockpricesmayhavelargerelasticity1400return1200Weexpectaluminumpricetobeimpactedbysupplyconditionand1000fluctuatewidelyin2023Webelievethattheimpactofsupplyshockhasbeen800mitigatedgreatlybutthesupplyconditionofaluminumwillstillhavegreatimpact600toaluminumpricein2023WeareoptimisticaboutChinasdemandgrowthassupportivepoliciesforthepropertyindustrynewenergyvehicleindustryand400200solarindustrywillleadtostrongdemandgrowthWebelieveproductioncostsof证primaryaluminumtorisein2023whichwillalsosupportaluminumprice00-200券Webelievethefastdevelopmentofthenewenergyvehicleindustrywill告-400bringsignificantnewdemandforaluminumextrusionproductsDemandJan22Mar22May22Jul22Sep22Nov22研copperaluminumzincleadnickel报growthforaluminumproductswillbedrivenbytwoaspectshigherpenetration究rateofnewenergyvehiclesandhigherdemandforaluminumproductsintheSourceBloomberg究newenergyvehicleindustryResearchReport报NonferrousStocks研WerecommendZijinMining02899HKCMOC03993HKChina告有色企业股价Hongqiao01378HKandXingfaAluminium00098HK券600EquityReturn铜价反弹可期关注美联储加息步伐从供给-需求基本面我们预计2023年将有一定的供500证应过剩但会在2024-2025年很快消失由于过去十年矿山资本开支不足全球铜矿产量增400300长预计在2023年达峰并在2024-2025年大幅放缓2023年中国对铜的需求可期我们预200计2023年铜价在金融属性和商品属性的推动下会有大幅反弹拥有铜资产的矿业公司将会显100著受益于铜价反弹他们的股价拥有更大的弹性00-100我们预计铝价在年将受供应情况影响而宽幅震荡我们认为供应冲击的影响已经大幅减2023-200T轻但是铝的供应状况仍将显著影响2023年铝价走势我们对中国的需求增长乐观因为对-300地产行业新能源汽车产业和光伏产业的支持政策都将带来强劲的需求增长我们认为原铝-400a-500的生产成本在2023年会上升并将对铝价形成支撑Jan22Mar22May22Jul22Sep22Nov22b我们认为新能源汽车产业的快速发展会带来对铝挤压产品显著的新增需求对铝材需求的增HSIIndex358399313782899有长主要由两个因素驱动更高的新能源汽车渗透率和新能源汽车产业对铝材的更多需求色lSourceBloomberg我们推荐紫金矿业02899HK洛阳钼业03993HK中国宏桥01378HK和兴发铝业金e00098HK属行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of13CSeTableTablemine3theincopperminedofstartsinceJulyhasandisexpectedtoproduce80000MineCopperproductionstartMineTimokCopperQuellavecocapacity2022indesignedcopperminedoftonsreach50000producetoafterexpectedisand2H20222021inproductionincopperminedoftons80000producetoexpected3theincopperminedoftonsgrowthTheKamoaCopperMinePhase2wasputintooperationinAprilcontributedsignificantandoperationintoputwassuccessfullymineslargenewcapacityofproductionmostCOVIDthebyimpactedadverselywasactivityminingcopperglobalNSTablegreatlysteadilyrecoverseconomyChinasandoveriscyclehikerateinterestthecoppeforthe14th5aofoptimizationdecadepasttheduringexpenditurecapitalinsufficient2024supplyexpectedbecanreboundpriceCopperourceSMMTimokSpenceFrasbergJulongMnieQuellavecoKamoaKamoaSpenceToquepalaSaloboKonkolaDeepAktogayGlogowGlebokiPrzemyslowyDikuluweMorenciCerroVerdeNkanaMiradorChuquicamataCobreGrasbergoutputTotalCarrapateenaPilaresPanamaMinaJuastaTFMMutandaewproductioncapacityofleadingcopperminingcompanieswassuccessfullyputintointoputsuccessfullywascompaniesminingcopperleadingofcapacityproductionewopperethshavescontributedgrowthanoutputofin654000tonsthe3first2022quartersof-e2025-21lasdemandfundamentalsweforecastthatthethatforecastwefundamentalsdemandPanamafromthereboundpriceofandstockpricecoppertheir-KakulaProductionProductionprojectscoppernewseveralofgrowthtonsOutput000majortr--MashambapagyearPlantotalstategridinvestmentisexpectedtoincrease12toRMB29trillSectorWeexpectcopperpriceWeBGlobalcopperminingoutputgrowthisexpectedtopeakin2023and2023inpeaktoexpectedisgrowthoutputminingcopperGlobalProjectlooembergforntidisclaimer-pandemicpoliciesmoresupportivepoliciesfordomesticpropertyindustrystategridinvestmentgrowthinvestmentgridindustrystatepropertydomesticforpoliciessupportivemorepoliciespandemicGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaicapacityofrd21Q11351082503800quarterandtheoutputisexpectedtocontinuetogrowItisestimatedthatseveralmajornewcoppernewmajorseveralthatestimatedisgrowIttocontinuetoexpectedisoutputtheandquarterrdIvanhoeZijinBHBPSoutherCopperValeKonkolaCopperMinesKazakhstanCopperKGHMHuagangCopperFreeportFreeportQuamtumFirstGlencoreChinaRailConstructionCodelcoQuamtumFirstFreeport024producedhaveand2022quarternewtobedrivenbyitsfinancialattributeandcommodityattributeandreboundattributeandattributeandcommodityitsfinancialdrivenbybe21Q2c1401482495500opperin2023inCompany-100000100000tonsofminedcopperin2022projects000tonsPfocusingremaybeabemayre21Q31591487115454420hndmngotfropra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