研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus3January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReportNonferrousMetalsNonferrousSector2023OutlookExpectMetal--OutperformNMetalsSectorPricestoRebound行业报告有色金属行业2023年展望金有色金属行业--跑赢大市否属价格反弹可期Non-BankSectorReportWealthManagement证FinanceTransitionFromADistributionModel--Outperform--NSectortoAnAdvisoryModelOutperform券行业报告财富管理由代销模式向投顾非银金融行业跑赢大市否----研模式转变跑赢大市告BenefitfromtheDevelopmentof究DongguanandGuangdong-HongDRCB报09889HKHK958--Buy--N报Kong-MacaoGreaterBayAreaBuy告究受益于东莞及粤港澳大湾区的发展买EquityResearchReport东莞农商银行09889HKHK958--买入--否研入AWorldPioneerofOVCPBuildingVOBILE券03738HKupAHeadofSteaminStreamingHK579--Buy--NGROUPInitiateWithBuy证开全球在线内容保护先河乘流媒体发展阜博集团03738HKHK579--买入--否之浪蓄势待发首予买入评级SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapTheConstructionOutlookofMomentumofEngineering--Outperform--NInfrastructureInvestmentin2023isSectorStillSufficient行业报告双周报展望2023年基建投建筑工程行业--跑赢大市--否资动力仍足SectorReportInthePost-EpidemicAutomobilesEraAutoIndustrysMarginal--Outperform--NSectorRecoveryIsExpectedAndthePolicySideMayExceedExpectations行业报告后疫情时期汽车行业边际修汽车行业--跑赢大市--否复可期政策端存在超预期可能TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题宏观美元为何与10年美债脱钩30December2022MarketStrategyPolicyDrivenMarkettoContinueWhileEconomicRevivalDrawsNear30December2022AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of11MorningResearchFocusHSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900027000120002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of11MorningResearchFocusTableTableFocusLatestLatestReportsSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSectorNonferrousMetalsSector2023OutlookExpectMetalPricestoReboundRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystKevinGuoReportDate2022-12-30SummaryCopperpricereboundisexpectedfocusingontheFederalReservespaceofinterestratehikeFromthesupply-demandfundamentalsweforecastthattheremaybeasupplysurplusin2023butthesurpluswilldisappearsoonin2024-2025Globalcopperminingoutputgrowthisexpectedtopeakin2023andwillslowgreatlyin2024-2025duetoinsufficientcapitalexpenditureinminingduringthepastdecadeChinasdemandgrowthforcoppercanbeexpectedin2023Weexpectthatcopperpricemaybedrivenbyitsfinancialattributeandcommodityattributeandreboundlargelyin2023MiningcompanieswithcopperassetswillbenefitgreatlyfromthereboundofcopperpriceandtheirstockpricesmayhavelargerelasticityWeexpectaluminumpricetobeimpactedbysupplyconditionandfluctuatewidelyin2023Webelievethattheimpactofsupplyshockhasbeenmitigatedgreatlybutthesupplyconditionofaluminumwillstillhavegreatimpacttoaluminumpricein2023WeareoptimisticaboutChinasdemandgrowthassupportivepoliciesforthepropertyindustrynewenergyvehicleindustryandsolarindustrywillleadtostrongdemandgrowthWebelieveproductioncostsofprimaryaluminumtorisein2023whichwillalsosupportaluminumpriceWebelievethefastdevelopmentofthenewenergyvehicleindustrywillbringsignificantnewdemandforaluminumextrusionproductsDemandgrowthforaluminumproductswillbedrivenbytwoaspectshigherpenetrationrateofnewenergyvehiclesandhigherdemandforaluminumproductsinthenewenergyvehicleindustryWerecommendZijinMining02899HKCMOC03993HKChinaHongqiao01378HKandXingfaAluminium00098HKSectorReportNon-BankFinanceSectorWealthManagementTransitionFromADistributionModeltoAnAdvisoryModelOutperformRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystFrancoLiReportDate2022-12-30SummaryProductdistributionmodelcannolongermeetinvestordemandChangeofmarketconditionsandbelow-expectedreturnsachievedbycertaincategoryofproductsledinvestorstorealizethattheirwealthmanagementdemandcanhardlybemetbyasinglecategoryofproductsandtograduallyswitchtomulti-assetallocationstrategyThereasonwhyreturnsachievedbycertainproductsarealwaysbelowinvestorsexpectationisthattheproductdistributionmodelusedtotakeadvantageofinvestorsambiguousunderstandingsofwealthmanagementbyusinghistoricalreturnstoattractandmisleadinvestorsThuswiththedeepeningofinvestorsunderstandingsweexpectthatinvestorswillswitchtoprofessionaladvisoriestoguidetheirassetallocationandtheproductdistributionmodelcannolongermeettheirdemandAdvisorymodelwillbenefitfromincreasingdemandforassetallocationWeexpectthekickoffofindividualpensionplanstoincreasethedemandforprofessionallong-termassetallocationservicesasindividualpensionplansaimatlong-terminvestmentindifferentproductssuchasdepositsWMPinsurancefundsetcThereforeinvestorsneedprofessionalinvestmentadvisorstoguidetheirassetallocationSuchtransitionhasbeenreflectedbytheAUMgrowthfundsadvisorycompanyYingMiFundNon-moneymarketfundnon-MMFAUM113qoqin22Q3outpacingtheAUMgrowthoffunddistributorsnon-MMFfundsofTop100funddistributors-372qoqin22Q3ReiterateindustryratingasOutperformAswealthmanagementindustryistransitioningfromproductdistributionmodeltoadvisorymodelweexpectcompanieswithwideproductofferingsandgreatadvisorycapabilitiestooutperformThereforeweexpecttopbrokerstobenefitastheyhavewiderproductofferingsandwerecommendCITICSecurities06030HKwhichhasthelargestadvisorbaseintheindustrywith5605advisorsasof30Dec2022andCICC03908HKwhichhasthefastestadvisorgrowth172yoyin2022amongtopbrokersSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of11MorningResearchFocusDRCB09889HKBenefitfromtheDevelopmentofDongguanandGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayAreaBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK958AnalystRichardCaoReportDate2022-12-30SummaryInvestmentsuggestionsWeexpecttheCompanysshareholdersnetprofitforFY22FY23FY24togrowYoYby149165189respectivelyWeexpecttheCompanysEPSforFY22FY23FY24tobeRMB0933RMB1086RMB1291andBVPSforFY22FY23FY24tobeRMB7477RMB8175RMB9005respectivelyWeinitiatewithaTPofHKD958fortheCompanyequivalentto94xFY22PER80xFY23PER68xFY24PER12xFY22PBR11xFY23PBRand10xFY24PBRMeanwhileweinitiatetheCompanywithBuyratingTheCompanyisexpectedtocontinuetobenefitfromthedevelopmentofDongguanandGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayAreaandearningsgrowthoutlookisgoodinthenearfutureTheeconomicdevelopmentoutlookforDongguanandGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayAreainwhichtheCompanysbusinessescoverisbrightWeexpecttheCompanysassetqualitytoimproveandearningsgrowthtoremaingoodinthenearfutureTheCompanysROEassetqualityandNPLcoveragelevelalloutperformitsmainpeersTheCompanyhasoutstandingadvantagesincostofdepositspartiallyasaresultofhighpercentageofthedemanddepositsintotaldepositsandsignificantcreditcostadvantagecomparedwithitsmainpeersCatalystsTheCompanysNIMisexpectedtostabilizeandimprovein2023and2024creditcostisexpectedtodeclinein2023and2024RiskfactorsGreaterregionalconcentrationriskeconomicconditionsarentinlinewithourexpectationsexposuretorisksfromtherealestateindustrymaybebeyondexpectationVOBILEGROUP03738HKAWorldPioneerofOVCPBuildingupAHeadofSteaminStreamingInitiateWithBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK579AnalystTeddyLinReportDate2022-12-30SummaryWeinitiatewithaBuyratingandaTPofHK579Weadoptrelativevaluationbasedonprice-to-salesratioWeassignVobilea2023price-to-salesratioof6xwithatargetmarketvalueofHK1227billionWiththedevelopmentofglobalstreamingmediaandsocialnetworksthesceneofcontentinfringementismorecomplicatedAstheexistingcopyrightprotectionmechanismisstilltobedevelopedalargenumberofsmallandmedium-sizedcontentcreatorsinChinahavenotbeeneffectivelyprotectedandprotectedfortheircontentinfringementsAstheworldsleadingcontentprotectionserviceproviderwiththeworldslargestcontentfingerprintdatabaseVobilestechnologyandindustrialaccumulationcanmeettheurgentdemandofdomesticandoverseascontentrightsholdersWeexpectVobilesbusinessexpansionintotheChinesemarkettoexceedthemarketsexpectationsItisgenerallybelievedthatthedemandofcontentprotectioninChinaishighlyfragmentedanddifficulttoaggregateWebelievethatinChinathefragmentedmarketofdemandcanbeeffectivelygatheredbyjointlybuildingaprotectionplatformwithlocalplatformsrelyingonVobilesindustry-leadingtechnologyAsaresultVobilesbusinessexpansiongrowthhasabrightfutureCatalystsNewpoliciesordocumentsonoriginalcontentrightprotectioninChinaReportsofcopyrightinfringementinChinaVobilescustomersofcontentrightsholdersupgradethecooperationcontractwithVobileRiskCustomerslowacceptanceofnewlydevelopedprotectionservicesslower-than-expecteddevelopmentofcontentprotectionawarenessinChinaSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of11MorningResearchFocusSectorReportConstructionEngineeringSectorBi-WeeklyWrapTheOutlookofMomentumofInfrastructureInvestmentin2023isStillSufficientRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGaryWongReportDate2022-12-30SummaryInvestmentsuggestionsOurtoppicksarecompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoverycontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentnewopportunitiesalongtheBeltandRoadbenefitfromstate-ownedenterprisereformandwithlowvaluationourtoppicksareChinaRailwayGroup00390HKtargetpriceHK760ratingBuyChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKtargetpriceHK810ratingBuyandChinaCommunicationsConstruction01800HKtargetpriceHK520ratingAccumulateReiterateOutperformratingforthesectorSectornewsupdatesAtthenationalfinanceworkvideoconferencehostedon29thDecember2022MrLiuKunMinisterofMinistryofFinancestatedthataproactivefiscalpolicywillbeimplementedin2023TaxandfeesupportpoliciesmustbeimprovedandeffortsshouldbemadetoalleviatethedifficultiesofenterprisesFinancialresourcecoordinationmustbestrengthenedandthescaleoffiscalexpendituresshallbeappropriatelyexpandedThegovernmentwillgivefullplaytotheroleoffiscalpoliciesinstabilizinginvestmentandpromotingconsumptionandstrivetoexpanddomesticdemandCompanynewsupdatesChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKannouncedwinningthebidofamajorprojectRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2possibleinflationexceedingexpectationsmaycausepolicytightening3worldwideepidemicsituationmightseefluctuationSectorReportAutomobilesSectorInthePost-EpidemicEraAutoIndustrysMarginalRecoveryIsExpectedAndthePolicySideMayExceedExpectationsRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystIvanWuReportDate2022-12-30SummaryMarketsentimenthasreachedalowpointandindustrymarginalrecoveryisexpectedWereiteratethatthemarkethasalreadyfullyexpectedthepessimisticsalesforecastfor1Q23InthepostCovid-19epidemicerasalesareexpectedtorecoverCEWCinDecstressedNEVindustryandthepossibilityofpoliciesexceedingexpectationsisincreasingThemarketisgraduallyoptimisticabouttheautosectorandshort-termopportunitieslieinexpectedrepairofOEMsandtop-downopportunitiesincomponentssectorintelligentizationanddomesticsubstitutionareasMarketsentimenthasbottomedandsalesinthepost-epidemiceramayexceedexpectationsBasedontheoverdraftofVPTpolicystimuluswhichisabouttoexpirewebelievethat1Q23PVsaleswillfluctuategreatlyandthepressureonannualsaleshasbeenfullyexpectedbythemarketThefinaldemandcausedbytherecentepidemichasnotbeenfullyreleasedMeanwhilewiththeresumptionofautoshowsinGuangzhouandChengdufinalsalesin1Q23inthepost-epidemictimemayexceedexpectationsNEVindustrypoliciesmayexceedexpectationsThereisanambiguityinthemarketovertheextensionofNEVsubsidypolicySomeinvestorsbelievethattheindustryhasenteredarelativelystablestageandsubsidyshouldnotcontinuetobekeptHoweverreferringtotherecentintensiveintroductionsoffavourablepoliciesfortherealestateindustryandconsideringthattheautoindustryalsooccupiesasignificantpositioninthenationaleconomywebelievethattheextensionpossibilityofsubsidypolicyforNEVindustryisincreasingInadditionsincerecentCEWCclearlymentionedtheNEVindustrywebelievethatChinawillissuecorrespondingsupportpoliciesfortheNEVindustryinthefutureReiterateinvestmentlinesofintelligentizationnewenergyself-ownedbrandFortheOEMssectorwerecommendGeelyAuto00175HKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HKforthecomponentssectorwerecommendNexteer01316HKRiskwarning1increasingindustrycompetition2policiesfallshortofexpectationsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of11MorningResearchFocusMarketStrategyPolicyDrivenMarkettoContinueWhileEconomicRevivalDrawsNearAnalystJakeWangReportDate2022-12-30SummaryMarketparticipantsweretradingonpotentialgainsfromdomesticpolicystimuliwhilethecontinuousworseningineconomicdataraisedconcernsTheofficialmanufacturingPMIfellto480inNovemberbelowthecriticalpointfortwoconsecutivemonthsTotalsocialretailsalesfell59YoYinNovembercomparedwiththe05decreaseinthepreviousperiodAlthoughthepolicyinflectionpointhasalreadyoccurredtheactualeconomyisyettoimproveTakingintoaccounttherecentmassiveCovidrelapseweexpectmarketparticipantstobesomewhatdividedonboththetimelinessandeffectivenessofeconomic-supportingpoliciesGiventheoptimismanddivergencewehaveobservedweexpectthattheHongKongstockmarketmayexhibitbroaderoscillationintheshortrunAstheCentralEconomicWorkConferencehasgivenoutnewpositivetonestodomesticeconomicrecoveryin2023weexpectthemarketsentimenttoremainpolicy-orientedinneartermByreviewinghistoricalpatternswhereexpansionarypoliciesweregraduallyreflectedintherealeconomywemaybeabletoidentifythepivotforasustainablebullmarketandestablishinvestmentstrategycommensuratelySpecificallywehavereachedthefollowingconclusions1PolicyinflectionpointfortheHongKongstockmarkettakestwodimensionsiebothChinasdomesticmacropolicesandoverseasmonetarypolicies2InvestorsoftenreactwithdivergencetothepartialrecoveryindomesticeconomicindicatorsSuchdivergenceoncereflectedinearningsgrowthexpectationsmaynotimprovesignificantlyormaysustainably3HoweverasmoreandmoreeconomicdataestablishanimprovingtrendtheresonancebetweenmacroeconomicandliquidityindicatorswillquicklynarrowthemarketdivergenceandeventuallyleadtoanupwardrevisionintheconsensusearningsestimateAccordingtohistoricalpatternsthisprocessusuallytakes4-6months4WiththeinclusionoftheCovidpandemicitmaytakemoretimeorgreatereffortsforpolicystimulitobefullytransmittedintotheupwardrevisioninearningsexpectationsOveralltheHongKongstockmarketmayexperiencerepeatedcorrectionsduringtheformationofaninflectionpointbutrarelybreakspreviouslowBysummarizingtheindexandsectorperformancefrom2008to2022wenoticedthattheHSIwillusuallyexperiencerepeatedcorrectionssincethemarketrecognizesapolicyinflectionuntilitreachesconsensusontheearningsinflectionThatsaidtheindexrarelybreaksitspreviouslowOnaveragemarketinflectionpointoftheHSIwillhaveabout5upsidespacecomparedtoitspolicyinflectionpointandthemaxgainlossfrompolicyinflectiontomarketinflectionis239157respectivelyOncetheearningsinflectionpointemergestheHSIisexpectedtoachieveanaveragegainofaround330Asthepolicy-drivenmarketmaycontinueintheshortrunwerecommendbuyingondipsbasedontheabovementionedpatterns1Chinasexportperformanceistotakefurtherpressurefromthedeteriorationinoverseasdemandwhichimpliesthattheremaybemorepolicystimulitoexpandinternaldemandsoastooffseteconomicdownwardpressure2IntermsofsectorpreferencesectorssuchasautomobilescomponentssoftwareretailmaterialsrealestatehealthcareequipmentconsumerserviceshardwareandetcgenerallyexhibitbothhigheraveragegainsandlessaverageretracementsrelativetotheindexbetweenpolicyinflectionandmarketinflectionDuringthemarketrallyaftertheearningsinflectionpointontheotherhandsectorsliketheautomobilescomponentssoftwaresemiconductorsandconsumerdurableswouldoftenbecometopperformersRiskFactors1Themagnitudeofdomesticexpansionarypoliciesmayfallshortofexpectations2OverseasinflationmayexceedmarketexpectationsChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchiSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of11MorningResearchFocus最新报告行业报告有色金属行业有色金属行业2023年展望金属价格反弹可期评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员郭勇报告日期2022-12-30报告摘要铜价反弹可期关注美联储加息步伐从供给-需求基本面我们预计2023年将有一定的供应过剩但会在2024-2025年很快消失由于过去十年矿山资本开支不足全球铜矿产量增长预计在2023年达峰并在2024-2025年大幅放缓2023年中国对铜的需求可期我们预计2023年铜价在金融属性和商品属性的推动下会有大幅反弹拥有铜资产的矿业公司将会显著受益于铜价反弹他们的股价拥有更大的弹性我们预计铝价在2023年将受供应情况影响而宽幅震荡我们认为供应冲击的影响已经大幅减轻但是铝的供应状况仍将显著影响2023年铝价走势我们对中国的需求增长乐观因为对地产行业新能源汽车产业和光伏产业的支持政策都将带来强劲的需求增长我们认为原铝的生产成本在2023年会上升并将对铝价形成支撑我们认为新能源汽车产业的快速发展会带来对铝挤压产品显著的新增需求对铝材需求的增长主要由两个因素驱动更高的新能源汽车渗透率和新能源汽车产业对铝材的更多需求我们推荐紫金矿业02899HK洛阳钼业03993HK中国宏桥01378HK和兴发铝业00098HK行业报告非银金融行业财富管理由代销模式向投顾模式转变跑赢大市评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员李炜报告日期2022-12-30报告摘要代销模式已不能满足投资者需求市场环境的变化以及部分产品的收益低于预期促使投资者意识到单一类产品难以满足其理财需求并逐步转向多元资产配置策略特定产品所取得的收益总是低于投资者预期的原因是代销模式利用投资者对财富管理的模糊认知用历史收益来吸引和误导投资者因此随着投资者认识的加深我们预计投资者将转向专业投顾来指导其资产配置代销模式已不能满足其需求投顾模式将受益于资产配置需求的增加我们预计个人养老金计划的启动将增加对专业长期资产配置服务的需求因为个人养老金计划旨在长期投资于不同的产品如存款理财产品保险基金等因此投资者需要专业的投资顾问来指导自己的资产配置这种转变反映在基金投顾公司盈米基金的基金保有量增长上2022年第3季度非货基金保有量环比增长113超过了基金代销机构的保有量增长2022年第3季度前100基金代销机构的非货基金保有量环比跌372重申行业评级为跑赢大市随着财富管理行业正在从代销模式向投顾模式转变我们预计拥有广泛产品和强大投顾能力的公司将胜出因此我们预计头部券商将受益因为他们提供更广泛的产品我们推荐中信证券06030HK截至2022年12月30日该公司拥有业内最大的投顾团队共5605名顾问以及中金公司03908HK2022年其在头部券商中投顾数量增长最快同比172东莞农商银行09889HK受益于东莞及粤港澳大湾区的发展买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK958分析员曹柱报告日期2022-12-30报告摘要投资建议我们预计202220232024年公司的归母净利润分别同比增长149165189我们预计202220232024年公司的每股盈利分别为0933元人民币1086元人民币和1291元人民币202220232024年每股净资产分别为7477Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of11MorningResearchFocus元人民币8175元人民币和9005元人民币我们首次给予公司958港元的目标价对应94倍2022年市盈率80倍2023年市盈率和68倍2024年市盈率12倍2022年市净率11倍2023年市净率和10倍2024年市净率同时我们首次给予公司买入投资评级公司预计将继续受益于东莞及粤港澳大湾区的发展未来一段时间盈利增长前景较好公司业务覆盖的东莞及粤港澳大湾区经济发展前景广阔我们预计未来一段时间公司的资产质量将改善盈利增速仍较好公司的ROE资产质量不良贷款拨备覆盖水平均优于其主要同业相比其主要同业部分由于活期存款占总存款的比重较高使得公司的存款成本优势明显且公司信用成本优势明显催化剂2023及2024年公司净息差预计将企稳改善2023及2024年信用成本预计将下滑风险因素区域集中度风险较大经济状况与我们预期不一致房地产风险暴露或超预期阜博集团03738HK开全球在线内容保护先河乘流媒体发展之浪蓄势待发首予买入评级评级买入6-18m目标价HK579分析员林荣叶报告日期2022-12-30报告摘要我们首次覆盖公司目标价为579港元投资评级为买入我们采用基于市销率的相对估值给予阜博2023年6倍市销率目标市值为1227亿港元随着全球流媒体和社交网络的发展内容侵权的场景更加复杂由于现存的版权保护机制尚待完善中国大量中小内容创作者的内容受到侵权行为侵犯并未得到有效保护和维权作为全球领先的内容保护服务商拥有全球最大的内容指纹数据库阜博的技术和行业积累可以满足国内外内容持有者对内容保护的迫切需求我们预期阜博在中国的业务拓展有望超市场预期市场普遍认为国内版权高度分散难以聚合我们认为背靠阜博行业领先的技术国内业务可通过和地方平台共同搭建版权保护中心有效聚拢分散的市场需求因此公司的业务增长具有极大前景催化剂关于原创版权保护的新政策或文件出台关于版权侵权事件的报道阜博的内容客户升级合作合同风险提示客户对新开发的内容保护服务接受度低中国内容保护意识发展慢于预期行业报告建筑工程行业双周报展望2023年基建投资动力仍足评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员黄家玮报告日期2022-12-30报告摘要投资建议我们的首选股为受惠于地产回暖基建投资持续发力一带一路新机遇国企改革低估值主题的公司包括中国中铁00390HK目标价760港元评级买入中国铁建01186HK目标价810港元评级买入及中交建01800HK目标价520港元评级收集重申行业跑赢大市评级行业新闻更新在2022年12月29日举行的全国财政工作视频会议上财政部部长刘昆表示2023年将实施积极的财政政策要完善税费支持政策着力纾解企业困难要加强财政资源统筹适度扩大财政支出规模将发挥财政稳投资促消费作用着力扩大国内需求公司新闻更新中国铁建01186HK公布中标重大项目风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动Seethelastpagefordisclaimer8of11MorningResearchFocus行业报告汽车行业后疫情时期汽车行业边际修复可期政策端存在超预期可能评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员吴凱翔报告日期2022-12-30报告摘要市场情绪处于低谷行业边际修复可期我们重申市场对2023年第一季度悲观预期已经有了充分的预期在后疫情时代销售预期修复可期12月的中央经济工作会议有重点提到新能源汽车行业政策超预期的可能性在增加市场对于汽车板块逐步乐观短期汽车板块机会在于整车的预期修复及零部件板块的自上而下机会智能电动和国产替代领域市场情绪触底后疫情时代销量存在超预期可能基于汽车购置税政策即将到期带来的透支我们认为2023年第一季度乘用车销量存在较大波动且全年销量有压力这一因素市场已经充分反应近期由疫情导致的终端需求却没有得到充分释放同时随着广州成都等车展活动的恢复2023年第一季度在后疫情时代下的终端销量存在超预期新能源汽车产业政策存在超预期可能市场对新能源车补贴政策的延续与否存在分歧部分投资者认为行业已经进入到一个较为稳定阶段补贴不应该继续享有但是参照近期房地产行业利好政策密集出台考虑到汽车行业在国家经济同样占据重要地位我们认为新能源汽车行业补贴政策得以延续的概率在上升另外从近期的中央经济会议明确提及新能源汽车行业我们认为中国在后续会对新能源汽车行业出台相应的扶持政策重申智能化新能源自主品牌投资主线整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HK长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HK风险提示1行业竞争加剧2政策端不及预期美元为何与10年美债脱钩宏观组周浩孙英超报告日期2022-12孙英超-30报告摘要美元与10年美债利率出现脱钩从11月份开始此前与10年美债收益率亦步亦趋的美元指数开始走出独立行情美元指数在过去的两个月中跌势明显大于10年美债收益率的下行幅度利率的上行主要在长端而非短端如果考察2年和10年美债利率的利差我们会发现从本月中以来2年美债利率几乎没有太大变化由此带来了2-10年利率曲线的陡峭化导致美债10年利率上行的真正因素来自于外因首先是日本央行超预期调整YCC政策这导致市场加码了来年日本央行进一步推动货币政策正常化的下注与此同时中国经济展望的明显改善也推动了美债长端利率的上行美债的陡峭化仍会温和持续由于短端利率受到货币政策影响而美联储大概率会在加息至5后进入政策观察期因此2年美债利率上行动力并不充足对于10年美债而言其上行的幅度仍然受到中国日本以及欧洲这几个外部因素的影响这几个因素在可预见的未来内仍然会在市场中发酵美元仍将保持弱势我们认为欧元会回升至110一线对应日元在125附近人民币则继续保持温和走升态势690不会成为短期的阻碍Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of11MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of11MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT-HSHARES06689HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKKWGGROUP01813HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKA-LIVING03319HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer11of11