市场新闻
　　美国劳工部周四表示，上周初请失业金人数增加9,000人，经季节性因素调整后为225,000人。今年截至12月中旬的平均每周初请失业金人数略低于2019年的平均水平218,000，而当时劳动力市场也很强劲。
　　美国拜登政府表示愿意解决欧洲和亚洲盟友对美国新的电动汽车税收抵免计划表达的一些担忧。该计划要求所有车辆必须在北美组装才能获得消费者税收抵免，但美国财政部发布的文件为一些在海外组装的车辆铺平了道路，如果这些车辆被企业购买用于租赁，则有资格通过单独的商业电动汽车计划获得奖励，但不能转售。
　　美国抵押贷款利率在2022年的最后一周上升，为期一年的上涨也使得2021年因新冠疫情推动的房地产繁荣因此而按下了暂停键。根据抵押贷款融资巨头房地美周四公布的对贷方的调查，标准30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率从上周的6.27%升至6.42%，而去年同期为3.11%。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus30December2022TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus新闻焦点今NewsFocus行业和公司焦点晨IndustryandCompanyFocus焦ResearchChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionFormulatedandIssuedtheMeasuresforthe点SupervisionandAdministrationofCustodyBusinessofCommercialBanksMorning中国银保监会制定发布了商业银行托管业务监督管理办法LatestReports最新报告摘要CompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变证ToSell60StakeinXinyuanChinaPowerRongheOn-tracktoDeliverNearly02380HKHK395--Buy--Y券International60ofGuidanceonThermalPowerDisposal研将出售新源融合60股权可兑现近六中国电力告02380HKHK395--买入--是究成火电资产出售指引New报EnergySectorReportGlobalNEVSalesSet报--Outperform--NSectorToFurtherIncreasein2023告究行业报告全球新能源汽车销量将于新能源行业--跑赢大市--否EquityResearchReport2023年进一步攀升研SectorReportBi-WeeklyUpdateProperty券RelativelyCautiousViewFrom--Outperform--NSectorRecentInvestorFeedback证行业报告双周报最近投资人的反馈仍房地产行业--跑赢大市--否偏谨慎SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapInElectronicstheMiddleofChallengesLies--Outperform--NSectorOpportunitiesAmidDe-globalizationTide行业报告双周报逆全球化大潮下危中电子行业--跑赢大市--否有机FlashNoteIssuanceofNewHarbinElectric01133HKHK295--Buy--NDomesticSharesataPricePremium哈尔滨电气01133HK快讯溢价发行新内资股HK295--买入--否TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题MacroChinaConsumptiontoLeadtheRecovery29December2022MarketStrategyHongKongBullMarketIsonaThree-StageRocketRide29December2022NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of13MorningResearchFocusAppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900027000120002500010000230002100080001900017000600015000400013000110002000Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPleasesubscribeGTJAIResearchandanalystsWechatsubscriptionaccount国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究PleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJNewsFocus新闻焦点TableNewsFocusMarketNews市场新闻Initialjoblessclaimsincreasedby9000toaseasonallyadjusted225000lastweektheLaborDepartmentsaidThursdayAverageweeklyclaimsthisyearthroughmid-Decemberwereslightlylowerthanthe2019averageof218000whenthelabormarketalsowashistoricallystrong美国劳工部周四表示上周初请失业金人数增加9000人经季节性因素调整后为225000人今年截至12月中旬的平均每周初请失业金人数略低于2019年的平均水平218000而当时劳动力市场也很强劲TheBidenadministrationonThursdaysignaleditswillingnesstoaddresssomeoftheconcernsexpressedbyEuropeanandAsianalliesoveranewUStaxcreditprogramforelectricvehiclesTheprogramrequiresallvehiclestobeassembledinNorthAmericatoqualifyforconsumertaxcreditsbuttheTreasuryDepartmentreleaseddocumentspavingthewayforsomevehiclesassembledoverseastoqualifyforincentivesthroughaseparatecommercialEVprogramiftheyarepurchasedforleasebybusinessesnotforresale美国拜登政府表示愿意解决欧洲和亚洲盟友对美国新的电动汽车税收抵免计划表达的一些担忧该Seethelastpagefordisclaimer2of13MorningResearchFocus计划要求所有车辆必须在北美组装才能获得消费者税收抵免但美国财政部发布的文件为一些在海外组装的车辆铺平了道路如果这些车辆被企业购买用于租赁则有资格通过单独的商业电动汽车计划获得奖励但不能转售Mortgageratesroseinthelastweekof2022cappingoffayearofincreasesthatbrought2021spandemic-fueledhousingboomtoahaltTheaveragerateonthestandard30-yearfixedmortgageroseto642from627lastweekaccordingtoasurveyoflendersreleasedThursdaybythemortgage-financegiantFreddieMacItwas311atthesametimelastyear美国抵押贷款利率在2022年的最后一周上升为期一年的上涨也使得2021年因新冠疫情推动的房地产繁荣因此而按下了暂停键根据抵押贷款融资巨头房地美周四公布的对贷方的调查标准30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率从上周的627升至642而去年同期为311Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of13MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionFormulatedandIssuedtheMeasuresfortheSupervisionandAdministrationofCustodyBusinessofCommercialBanksAnalystRichardCaoWhathappenedOn29December2022inordertofurtherstrengthenthesupervisionandadministrationofthecustodybusinessofcommercialbanksandpromotethestandardizedandhealthydevelopmentofthecustodybusinessofcommercialbanksChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionformulatedandissuedtheMeasuresfortheSupervisionandAdministrationoftheCustodyBusinessofCommercialBankshereinafterreferredtoastheMeasureswhichbegantosolicitpublicsuggestionsfrom29December2022CommentsandViews1OnthebasisoftheexistingregulatorysystemtheMeasuresfurtherclarifythebasicrulesandstrengthenthebottomlinerequirementsforcommercialbankstocarryoutcustodybusiness2TheMeasuresmakethefollowingrulesonstrengtheningsupervisionofcustodybusinessofcommercialbanksmainlyincludingFirststrengtheningcontinuousregulationsItputsforwardregulatoryrequirementsontheorganizationalstructurebusinessstandardssystemsafetyetcforcommercialbanksinconductingcustodybusinessandtakesthecomplianceandprudenceofcustodybusinessasanimportantbasisforregulatoryratingsSecondstrengtheningregulatorypunishmentsForcommercialbankswhichconductcustodybusinessinviolationofregulationstheywillbeorderedtomakerectificationwithinatimelimitForcommercialbanksthatdonotmeetthequalificationofcustodybusinessdonotmeettherequirementsofcustodybusinesscapabilityordonotconductcustodybusinessprudentlyChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionanditsbranchinstitutionsmaysuspendrelevantbusinessesinaccordancewithlawsandregulationsandtheprincipleofprudentsupervisionandadministrationThirdstrengtheningself-disciplinemanagement3TheformulationandreleaseoftheMeasuresisexpectedtobebeneficialforfurtherstrengtheningtheregulationsoncustodybusinessofcommercialbanksurgecommercialbankstofulfillriskmanagementandstandardoperationandrealizeprudentandstableoperationInthelongrunitwillhavepositiveinfluenceoncommercialbanksHoweverastheregulatoryrequirementsarestrengtheneditmayhavenegativeimpactonthecustodybusinessofsomebankstoacertainextentintheshortrun4ThemainlandbankslistedinHongKongunderourcoveragehaverelativelycompletecorporategovernancestandardizedbusinessoperationsandgoodriskmanagementThereleaseoftheMeasuresisexpectedtohavelimitedimpactonthemainlandbankslistedinHongKongunderourcoverageAsthecustodybusinessoflargestate-ownedbanksandjoint-stockbanksisrelativelystandardizedandthelevelofriskmanagementisrelativelyhightheimpactisexpectedtoberelativelysmallInvestmentsuggestionTherelaxationofrelevantpolicieslowvaluationsandtheexpectedrecoveryoffinancialresultsareexpectedtobethemaincatalystsforimprovementinvaluationsofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongWemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023WepickmainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofrealestatepoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresultsperformanceisexpectedtobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWerecommendCMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKMeanwhilewealsorecommendBOCHK02388HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefitfromtheUSFederalReservescontinuousinterestratehikesandthatearningsgrowthisexpectedtoremaingoodin2023TableLatestSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of13MorningResearchFocusLatestReportsChinaPowerInternational02380HKToSell60StakeinXinyuanRongheOn-tracktoDeliverNearly60ofGuidanceonThermalPowerDisposalRatingBuy6-18mTPHK395AnalystPeterShaoReportDate2022-12-29SummaryEventOn28DecCPIDtheCompanyannouncedthatitwillsell60stakeinXinyuanRongheawholly-ownedsubsidiaryoftheCompanywithatotalinstalledcoal-firedcapacityof476GWforaconsiderationofRMB126bnThesignificanceoftheannounceddisposalCoal-firedassetdisposalalongwithassetinjectionfromparentcompanyprovidesgreatflexibilitytoCPIDsgreentransformationwhichenvisagestheCompanytohave759095oftotalinstalledcapacityincleanenergyby202320252030respectivelyPreviouslyCPIDsmanagementguided8GWdisposalofthermalassetsforthe14thFiveYearPlanperiodbutthemarketwassuspiciousoftheguidancegiventhedauntingoutlookforthermalpowerunderhighcoalpricesAssuchwebelievetheannounceddisposalwhichwoulddeliveralmost60ofCPIDsdisposalguidancecamejustintimetoreassurethemarketofthefeasibilityofthermalassetdisposalsboostinginvestorconfidenceintheCompanystransformationMeanwhiletheannounceddisposalalsoreflectsafavourablePBof14xaccordingtoourestimateInfactalthoughthermalpoweriscurrentlyfacingdownwardearningspressuretherearestillgoodreasonstobuyitegthepurchaseofcoal-firedassetscouldserveashedgingforcoalcompaniesordeliveroncertainpoliticalobjectivessuchasensuringenergysecurityforlocalSOEsReiterateBuyCPIDsgreentransformationplanwhichisarguablythemostambitiousvspeersison-tracktofundamentallyimprovetheCompanysearningsprofileWestillseelargeupsidetoCPIDssharesespeciallyconsideringthemarketislikelytogivemorecredittotheCompanystransformationplangoingforwardWemaintainourTPunchangedatHK395SectorReportNewEnergySectorGlobalNEVSalesSetToFurtherIncreasein2023RatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystJunZhuReportDate2022-12-29SummaryDomesticnewenergyvehiclesalesvolumemaintainedahighgrowthrateinNovember2022AccordingtodatafromCAAMdomesticnewenergyvehicleproductionoutputandsalesvolumeinNovemberreached768thousandunitsand786thousandunitsup656YoYand723YoYrespectivelyCumulativenewenergyvehicleproductionoutputandsalesvolumeinthefirst11monthsof2022reached6253millionunitsand6067millionunitsbothwentupYoYbymorethan100Newenergyvehiclepenetrationrateclimbedto338inNovember2022thehighestleveleverseen1M-11M2022newenergyvehiclepenetrationwasapproximately250upmorethan10pptYoYfromthesameperiodof2021EVbatteryinstallationsreachednewheightinNovember2022ThenewlyinstalleddomesticEVbatterycapacityreached343GWhinNovember2022up647YoYInthefirst11monthsof2022domesticEVbatteryinstallationreached2585GWhup1015YoYInNovemberternarybatteryinstallationwas110GWhup195YoYandaccountedfor354oftotalEVbatteryinstallationswhilelithiumironphosphateLFPbatteryinstallationforthemonthwas231GWhup995YoYandaccountedfor674oftotalinstallationsIn1-11M2022LFPbatterycumulativeinstallationsreached1591GWhup1455YoYandaccountedfor615oftotalEVbatteryinstalledinthemarketDomesticEVbatteryinstallationissettohit300GWhin2022andtoexceed400GWhin2023WearebullishonleadingNEVproducersandEVbatterymakersinthemarketWeexpectglobalNEVsalestoreachapproximately13millionunitsin2023326YoYwhiledomesticNEVsalesreachapproximately9millionunitsin2023343YoYThehighgrowthintheEVindustrytobeseenin2023willcontinuetobenefitleadingEVproducersandEVbatterymakersinthemarketWerecommendBYD01211HKandCABL03931HKgiventheirleadingpositioninthefieldsofnewenergyvehicleandEVbatteryRisksNEVsubsidycutmayaffectsalesglobaleconomicslowdownmayaffectNEVconsumptionrawmaterialspricefluctuationscouldhurtmarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimer5of13MorningResearchFocusSectorReportPropertySectorBi-WeeklyUpdateRelativelyCautiousViewFromRecentInvestorFeedbackRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystChunliZhanReportDate2022-12-29SummaryWeobservedthatmostinvestorsstillholdcautiousviewonthesectorDespiterecentaslewofsupportivepoliciesmostoftheinvestorsstilltakeacautiousviewonthesectorbasedon1stillweakrecoveryfromthedemandsideand2dampenedinvestorsentimentfromtheshareplacementsofdevelopersandpropertymanagementcompaniesMostofthelong-onlyfundsonlysticktoSOEsandqualitynameswithlittlebuyinginterestinbuyingprivatenamesOntheothersidesomehedgefundstookashort-termapproachtobuysomeprivatedevelopersuponthepolicysupportandhopetotakeprofitfromthemitigationofdebtrisksCEWCreaffirmsmorepolicysupportbutnothingtooexcitingDuring15-16Dec2022wesawlargelyunchangedpolicytoneonpropertysectorfromCEWCnosurprisebeyondmostinvestorsexpectationOnonesidehouseisforlivingnotforspeculationwasstilllistedOntheothersidethemoreimportantkeymessageswere1theriskmanagementthroughsupportingfinancingneedsofqualitydevelopersisthepriorityand2supportinghomeupgradeisalsooneimportantpartofboostingdomesticconsumptionWeaksalesdatainthelasttwoweeksof2022RecentlywesawtheweeklysalesdatafellbackwithalargeYoYdeclineof365and487respectivelyinthelasttwoweeksof2022Takingintoaccount1theshort-terminfectionpeakofCOVIDand2homebuyerswaitandseeattitudetowardsmorepolicylooseningwedonotexpectsalestoreboundinDec2022andthenextfewmonthsWebelievepolicysupportwillcontinuetoimprovethemarketsentimentespeciallyfromthedemandsideOurcurrentinvestmentratingonthesectorisOutperformAmongqualitynameswerecommendLongfor00960HKGemdale600383SHandVanke-H02202HKWebelieveCCCGRealEstate000736SZandCDInternational01908HKarebeneficiariessincesmallerSOEsmayseemorestrengthduetofinancialeasingRisks1Reopeningofup-frontfinancingincreasingtheindustrysleverage2deterioratinghome-buyingdemandSectorReportElectronicsSectorBi-WeeklyWrapIntheMiddleofChallengesLiesOpportunitiesAmidDe-globalizationTideRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystChenLiuReportDate2022-12-29SummaryTheprogressofdomesticsemiconductorsproductreplacementwilltakeplaceatafasterpaceamidmoreexportrestrictionsfromtheUSanditsalliesRecentlyBISunderUSDepartmentofCommercedecidedtoadd36ChinesecompaniesintotheentitylistincludingYangtzeMemoryTechnologyandCambriconBISalsoremoved25ChineseentitiesfromtheUVLthistimeincludingNauraMagnetoelectricTechnologyseveraluniversitiesandresearchfacilitiesPriortothistheUSgovernmenthadalreadytakenmultiplemeasuresinstrengtheningitsownsemiconductorssupplychainincluding1establishingSIACandChip4AllianceUSJapanKoreaTaiwanProvince2passingthe2022ChipsandScienceActprovidingUS527bngovernmentsubsidiestosemiconductorsenterprisesintheUSthosewhoreceivedsubsidiesshallnotconstructorexpandadvancedsemiconductorfabsinmainlandChinaforonedecadeTheBrookingsInstitutionrecentlysuggestedthatthecurrentChip4AllianceshouldbeexpandedintoChipXAllianceaddingEUIndiaandSingaporeTSMCistransferringpartialN3andN4technologyproductioncapacitytotheUSalongsidetheBidenadministrationsnationalsecurityandmanufacturingreshoringstrategyInearlyDec2022TSMCannouncedthatinadditiontoitsfirstfabinArizonascheduledtobeginproductionofN4processtechnologyin2024TSMCalsostartedtheconstructionofasecondfabscheduledtobeginproductionof3nmprocesstechnologyin2026AtpresentTSMCsmainproductionbaseforitsmostadvancedN3technologyisFab18inTainanCityWereiteratethreekeyinvestmentthesisforelectronicssectorin20231ApplesrevolutionaryMRproductwillleadanewinnovationcycleforconsumerelectronics2acceleratedpenetrationinNEVandintelligentvehicleislikelytobenefitautoelectronicssupplychainand3escalatedsanctionsfromtheUSanditsallieswillstrengthenChinasdeterminationofimplementingself-controllablestrategyinICmanufacturingandthemarketislikelytoseeanincreasingSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of13MorningResearchFocuspresenceofdomesticequipmentandproductsRiskUncertaintiesrelatedtoSino-UStensionsslower-than-expectedbreakthroughinkeysemiconductorstechnologiesFlashNoteHarbinElectric01133HKIssuanceofNewDomesticSharesataPricePremiumRatingBuy6-18mTPHK295AnalystJunZhuReportDate2022-12-29SummaryHarbinElectricwillraiseRMB17billioncapitalthroughtheissuanceofnewdomesticsharestoitscontrollingshareholderHarbinElectricannouncedinearlymorningofDecember29th2022thatithasenteredintoadomesticsharesubscriptionagreementwithitscontrollingshareholderfortheissuanceofnewdomesticsharesatatotalsubscriptionpriceofapproximatelyRMB17billionFinalsubscriptionpricewillbebetweenHK342andHK360representingapricepremiumof110to165comparedtotheclosingpriceofHK309dated28thDecember2022Dependingonthefinalsubscriptionpricethetotalnewdomesticsharestobeissuedfromthistransactionwillbebetween529753millionsharesand556009millionsharesrepresentingapproximately237to246ofthetotalissuedsharecapitaloftheCompanyasenlargedbytheissueofthenewdomesticsharesProceedsraisedfromthetransactionwillhelpoptimizethecapitalstructureandpromotethetransformationofHarbinElectricNetproceedstoberaisedfromthetransactionareexpectedtobeapproximatelyRMB1697millionTheCompanyintendstousethesenetproceedstoreplenishitsgeneralworkingcapitalimproveitsassetliabilityratiooptimizeitscapitalstructureandreduceitsfinancialexpensesaswellasfinancialrisksUnderthebackgroundofChinasstrategyofpromotinggreenandlow-carbontransformationanddevelopmenttheproceedsfromtheissuanceofnewdomesticshareswillprovidefinancialsupportfortheCompanysreformtransformationandsustainabledevelopmentandwillhelptheCompanytostimulatebusinessdevelopmentmomentumandcarryoutnewstrategiessothatthecompanycancreategreatervaluefortheoverallshareholdersWithChinarollingoutmassiveinvestmentplansonenergyinfrastructureinvestmentpumpedstorageprojectsfrom325GWattheendof2020to62GWby2025andtoapproximately120GWby2030thermalpowerplantrehabilitationandupgradesbetween250GWand300GWofcoal-firedpowerplantsneedupgradingduring14-FYPaswellasinvestmentresumptiononcoal-firedpowernolessthan240GWtobeaddedinnext3yearsinnextfewyearsweexpecttheoperatingperformanceofHarbinElectricwillcontinuetobeatthemarketexpectationfrom2023to2025WethinktherecoveryoftheCompanyisalreadyonitswayReiterateBuyinvestmentratingforHarbinElectricWearebullishontheoutlookofHarbinElectricandwebelievethetransactionwillboostthemarketconfidenceintheCompanySharepriceofHarbinElectricjumpedby462fromlateAugusttodatedrivenbymarketconfidenceinitsoutlookandexpectationofarecoveryWewillmaintainourinvestmentratingofBuyforHarbinElectricandwillfurtherraiseitsTPChinaConsumptiontoLeadtheRecoveryMacroteamHaoZhouBillySunReportDate2022-12-29SummaryWhileourGDPforecastislargelyinlinewithmarketconsensusweholdaviewthatdomesticconsumptionwilloutperformnextyearOurestimationonretailsalesgrowthis68yyfor202305ppthigherthanBloombergconsensusat63AsChinaissettoremovealmostalltheCOVIDrestrictionsasearlyasnextJanuarywearemoreconfidentaboutourviewondomesticconsumptionTheicebergsthatsuppressconsumptionaremeltingFirstsupply-siderecoverywillhelpreducethejoblessratesalthoughtheprocessisslowbutthetrendiscertainSecondtheexpectationofshrinkingwealthwhichdiscouragedhigh-incomegroupstoconsumehasbeguntoreverseandtheinflectionpointofresidentsleveragemayhavearrivedThirdtheprecautionarysavingsaccumulatedinthepastthreeyearsarelikelytobeunleashedduringthecourseofpost-pandemicrecoverySeethelastpagefordisclaimer7of13MorningResearchFocusMarketStrategyHongKongBullMarketIsonaThree-StageRocketRideAnalystEvanLiReportDate2022-12-29SummaryHeadwindspreviouslyaffectingtheHongKongstockmarketsawrespiteinearlyNovemberThebenchmarkofHongKongstockstheHangSengIndexHSIreboundedsharplybynearly236inNovemberafterdippingtoahistoricallowFactorsthatliftedtheHKstockmarketinclude1Aflurryofgovernmentdrivesincludingrealestatepolicystimulusrolledout2Alooseningofzero-Covidboostedmarketsentiment3InvestorsbetonslowerpaceofratehikesasUSinflationeasedfurtherinNovemberHongKongstockmarketisonathree-stagerocketrideThecurrentmarketsentimentisrampingupasChinaseconomicgrowthoutlookisrevivingIngeneralwebelievetheshort-termdrawdownfromthepolicybottomtothemarketbottomwillnotchangetheupwardtrajectoryoftheHongKongstockmarketFirst-stagerocketriskappetitewillcontinuetoreviveInvestoruncertaintyaroundpolicyexecutionandzero-CovidaregraduallydiminishingandriskappetiteofHongKongstockswillrecoverfurtherSecond-stagerocketvaluationrerateUSinflationhasfinallystartedtomoderateandtheFedisgettingclosertoitsso-calledterminalrateThe10-yearUSTreasuryratesupsidespaceisrelativelycappedwhileitmayhavealotfurthertofallthusliquiditymotivatedtradingmightfurtherreratevaluationoftheHSIThree-stagerocketupwardearningsrevisionsChinaseconomyisexpectedtostagearecoveryin2023CorporatefundamentalswillstrengthenfurtheramidChinaseconomicrecoveryThustheearningsexpectationofHongKongstocksislikelytoreviseupwardandagainstrengthenthemarketsentimentTheroadtoreboundisnotsmoothThepolicybottomhasbeenformedbuttheremaybeacertaindrawdownwhenapproachingmarketbottomRiskfactorsincludeshorttermCovidexitwaveandasaresulteconomicgrowthmomentummightremainvolatileglobalmacroeconomicbackdropandlargerthanexpectedFedtighteningpolicyBuyondipsItisexpectedthatthepolicyresponsesshallremainsupportivetoboostdomesticdemandunderthepressureofweakenedoverseesdemandAsetofsupportivemeasurestowardshousingandconsumptiondemandareexpectedtorolloutaszero-CovidgraduallydiminishesInthestageoftradingonexpectationsabuyondipsstrategyshouldbeadoptedFavoringsectorsrunalongsidethereversalstrategy1Wefavortherealestatesupply-chainsectorsinanticipationofcontinuouspolicystimulusonthedemandside2Consumercyclicalnamesthatbenefitfromare-openingoftheeconomyespeciallysectorsthatarestillundervaluedincludinge-commerceautomobilesconsumerelectronicsetc3Liquidity-sensitivesectorsincludingbiotechgoldandsemiconductorsetcRiskwarning1Chinasstimuluspoliciesarenotassufficientasexpected2Larger-than-forecastedFedrateriseSeethelastpagefordisclaimer8of13MorningResearchFocusChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschi中国银保监会制定发布了商业银行托管业务监督管理办法分析员曹柱事件描述2022年12月29日为进一步加强商业银行托管业务监督管理促进商业银行托管业务规范健康发展中国银保监会制定发布了商业银行托管业务监督管理办法以下简称办法自2022年12月29日起公开征求意见观点评论1办法在现有监管制度基础上进一步对商业银行开展托管业务明确基本规则强化底线要求2办法对强化商业银行托管业务监管作出以下规定主要包括一是强化持续性监管对商业银行开展托管业务的组织架构业务规范系统安全等提出监管要求将托管业务合规性和审慎性作为监管评级的重要依据二是强化监管处罚对于商业银行违规开展托管业务的责令其限期整改对于不符合托管业务资质不满足托管业务能力要求托管业务开展不审慎的商业银行银保监会及其派出机构可依照法律法规和审慎监管原则暂停其相关业务三是强化自律管理3办法的制定发布预计将有利于进一步强化商业银行托管业务监管督促商业银行落实风险管理及规范经营实现审慎稳健经营长期看对商业银行将形成正面影响但由于监管要求提高短期看可能对部分银行的托管业务形成一定的负面影响4我们覆盖的在港上市内地银行公司治理相对完善业务经营规范风控水平较好办法的发布预计对我们覆盖的在港上市内地银行影响有限由于国有大型银行股份制银行托管业务相对规范风控水平较高预计受到的影响相对较小投资建议相关政策的放松低估值以及业绩的预期复苏预计将成为香港上市内地银行估值改善的主要催化剂我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐我们推荐招商银行03968HK邮储银行01658HK同时我们亦推荐中银香港02388HK汇丰控股00005HK其受益于美联储持续加息2023年盈利增速预计维持较好TableLatestchi最新报告中国电力02380HK将出售新源融合60股权可兑现近六成火电资产出售指引评级买入6-18m目标价HK395分析员邵俊樨报告日期2022-12-29报告摘要事件12月28日中国电力以下简称公司宣布将以人民币126亿元代价出售其全资子公司新源融合60的股权新源融合持有共计476吉瓦火电装机容量本次公告的资产处置的重要性中国电力推行的绿色转型要求公司清洁能源装机占比到202320252030年分别达到759095在这一转型过程中火电资产处置和母公司资产注入是提高公司转型灵活度的重要手段中国电力管理层曾指引称公司将在十四五期间处置8吉瓦火电资产但由于煤价高企下的火电前景不容乐观市场早前对该指引一直存在顾虑在此背景下我们认为本次公布的资产处置兑现近六成公司火电出售指引及时打消了市场对火电资产出售可行性的疑虑并提振了投资者对公司转型的信心与此同时据我们测算此次公告的资产处置亦反映了14倍的较为理想的市净率事实上尽管目前火电面临盈利下行压力但火电资产并非没有被收购的理由例如收购火电资产可以用于对冲对于煤炭公司而言或用于达成能源保供等目标对于地方国企而言重申买入中国电力领跑同业的绿色转型计划正在从根本上改善公司的盈利画像我们认为公司股价仍有较大上涨空间Seethelastpagefordisclaimer9of13MorningResearchFocus尤其是考虑到市场后续将更看好公司的转型计划我们维持目标价395港元行业报告新能源行业全球新能源汽车销量将于2023年进一步攀升评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员朱俊杰报告日期2022-12-29报告摘要2022年11月国内新能源汽车销量保持高速增长根据中国汽车工业协会数据的显示11月国内的新能源汽车产销量分别达到768万辆和786万辆同比增长656和7232022年前11个月的累计新能源汽车产销量分别达到6253万辆和6067万辆同比增幅均超过1002022年11月国内新能源汽车渗透率已升至338创历史新高2022年1-11月的新能源汽车渗透率约为250较2021年同期增长超过10个百分点2022年11月的动力电池装机量再创新高2022年11月国内动力电池装机量达343吉瓦时同比增长6472022年前11个月的国内动力电池累计装机量达2585吉瓦时同比增长1015三元电池于11月的装机量为110吉瓦时同比增195占动力电池总装机量354磷酸铁锂电池装机量则为231吉瓦时同比增995占总装机量6742022年1-11月磷酸铁锂电池的累计装机量达1591吉瓦时同比增长1455占市场动力电池总装机量615国内于2022年的动力电池装机量预计将达300吉瓦时并于2023年突破400吉瓦时我们推荐市场上领先的新能源汽车生产商和动力电池制造商我们预计2023年全球新能源汽车销量将达到约1300万辆同比增长300而国内新能源汽车销量将在2023年达到约900万辆同比增长3432023年电动汽车行业的高速增长将继续有利于市场上的电动汽车生产商和电动汽车电池制造商我们推荐比亚迪01211HK和中创新航03931HK主要考虑到他们在新能源汽车领域和动力电池领域里拥有领先的市场地位风险新能源汽车补贴削减或影响销量全球经济放缓可能影响新能源汽车消费原材料价格波动或削弱利润率行业报告房地产行业双周报最近投资人的反馈仍偏谨慎评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员詹春立报告日期2022-12-29报告摘要我们发现投资人对板块仍持谨慎态度尽管最近一系列支持性政策出台但基于1疲弱的需求端复苏以及2地产商和物业管理企业的配股使市场情绪受打压大多数的投资人对板块仍持保守态度大部分多头基金仍只看好和持有国企和优质房企对买入民营房企的兴趣不高另一方面考虑到政策支持部分对冲基金短线持有民营房企希望在债务危机缓解中获利中央经济工作会议明确政策支持但没有太多惊喜2022年12月15-16日期间来自中央经济工作会议的对房地产的政策基调没有太大改变也没有超越投资人的预期一方面房住不炒仍然在列但另一方面会议所传达的更关键的点是1有效防范化解优质头部房企风险是当前首要重点2支持住房改善列为扩大内需中的重要部分2022年最后两周的销售数据仍然疲弱最近我们看到了周销售数据的回落2022年最后两周的周销售数据分别同比下跌365以及487考虑到1短期内是疫情感染的高峰以及2期待更多的需求端政策支持购房人更多持有观望态度我们认为2022年12月以及接下来几个月的销售不会明显反弹我们认为支持性政策会持续尤其是需求端政策将提升市场情绪我们当前对行业所持的评级是跑赢大市优质龙头中我们推荐龙湖集团00960HK金地集团600383SH和万科企业02202HK同时我们认为中交地产000736SZ以及建发国际01908HK将会受益作为较小的央国企其在当前融资宽松环境下展现更多优势风险1重新放开前融行业杠杆上行以及2购房需求加速下行Seethelastpagefordisclaimer10of13MorningResearchFocus行业报告电子行业双周报逆全球化大潮下危中有机评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员柳晨报告日期2022-12-29报告摘要美国及其盟友的出口管制升级将加速半导体国产替代进程近期美商务部下属工业与安全局BIS将36家中国企业列入实体清单包括长江存储以及寒武纪BIS此次也将25家中国实体移出待核实名单包括北方华创以及一些大学和科研机构在此之前美国政府已经采取多个措施来加强自身的半导体产业链包括1建立美国半导体联盟以及芯片四方联盟2通过2022年芯片与科学法案为美国半导体企业提供527亿美元的政府补贴受补贴企业10年内不允许在中国大陆新建或者扩建先进制程工艺半导体厂美国布鲁金斯学会日前建议当前的芯片四方联盟应当扩容可纳入欧盟印度以及新加坡在拜登政府的国家安全和制造业回流战略下台积电正将部分N3以及N4制程工艺产能转移至美国本月早些时候台积电宣布在其位于亚利桑那州的首个晶圆厂计划2024年量产N4制程工艺之后还将在该州建设第二个晶圆厂计划2026年量产3纳米制程工艺当前台积电最先进的N3工艺产能主要由位于台南市的晶圆十八厂提供我们重申电子行业2023年的三大投资主线1苹果革命性的MR设备将引领新一轮的消费电子创新周期2新能源汽车和智能化汽车渗透率的进一步提升将利好汽车电子供应链3来自美国及其盟友的制裁升级将强化中国在集成电路制造领域的自主可控战略市场或将迎来更多产品和设备的国产替代风险中美局势的不确定性半导体关键技术突破慢于预期快讯哈尔滨电气01133HK溢价发行新内资股评级买入6-18m目标价HK295分析员朱俊杰报告日期2022-12-29报告摘要哈尔滨电气将向其控股股东增发新内资股以募资人民币17亿元哈尔滨电气于2022年12月29日早上公告称已与其控股股东就发行新内资股签订了内资股认购协议总认购价格约为人民币17亿元最终认购价介乎342港元至360港元较2022年12月28日收市价309港元溢价110至165视最终认购价格而定本次发行的新内资股总数为529753百万股至556009百万股约占公司经本次发行新股扩大后总股本的237至246本次交易募集资金将有利于优化公司的资本结构以及促进哈尔滨电气的转型本次交易募集资金净额预计将约为人民币1697亿元公司拟将该等募集资金净额用于补充公司的流动资金改善资产负债率优化资本结构降低财务费用和财务风险在国家推进绿色低碳转型发展的战略背景下本次发行新内资股募集资金将为公司改革转型和可持续发展提供资金支持将有助于公司激发业务发展动力推进其新战略为公司全体股东创造更大价值随着中国推出了大规模的能源基建投资计划抽水蓄能项目将由2020年底的325吉瓦提升至2025年的62吉瓦以及到2030年的约120吉瓦火电厂升级改造计划250吉瓦至300吉瓦燃煤电厂需于十四五期间进行升级改造以及对燃煤发电站的投资重启未来3年不少于240吉瓦的新增煤电产能我们预计哈尔滨电气于2023年至2025年间的经营业绩将持续超出市场预期我们认为公司的复苏已在路上重申对哈尔滨电气买入的投资评级我们看好哈尔滨电气的前景相信本次的交易将提振市场对公司的信心受到市场对其前景的信心和复苏预期的推动公司的股价从8月底至今已上涨了462我们将维持对哈尔滨电气买入的投资评级并将进一步上调公司的目标价Seethelastpagefordisclaimer11of13MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer12of13MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKA-LIVING03319HKBIDU-SW09888HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT-HSHARES06689HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKKWGGROUP01813HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer13of13