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>> 国泰君安-比亚迪电子(00285.HK)业务边界不断扩张,“买入”评级-221228
上传日期:   2022/12/29 大小:   1204KB
格式:   pdf  共7页 来源:   国泰君安
评级:   -- 作者:   余劲同
下载权限:   此报告为加密报告
我们将目标价由24.97港元上调至30.69港元,并维持公司“买入”的投资评级。我们预测2022-2024财年的每股盈利为人民币0.836/ 1.272/ 1.744元。由于好于预期的比亚迪汽车销售以及快于预期的储能业务发展,我们上调目标价并维持“买入”的投资评级。
  公司明年预计继续拓展在北美大客户中的份额,同时储能业务的可拓展空间巨大。我们预计公司在北美大客户平板产品组装的份额会进一步上升,2023年可以达到50%的水平。玻璃后盖产品的产能也在不断提升中,我们预计未来份额有望达到30%。通过和北美大客户合作的不断深化,以及公司拥有的先进材料技术、精密制造能力以及快速扩产的能力,我们认为公司未来还有望拓展到更多的北美大客户产品线中。储能业务方面,除了公司目前已经涉足的户用储能柜有较大的市场空间外,我们认为公司会将其储能业务的边界拓展到商用领域。
  我们认为新能源汽车业务的发展有望超出市场预期。公司布局的新能源汽车产品涉及座舱、智能驾驶、域控制器、热管理、车载声学、通信模组、新型材料等方面。新产品不断量产后,我们认为公司未来能逐渐在若干领域拿到比亚迪汽车一供的位置,从而帮助实现单车价值上万元的目标。
  催化剂:更多新能源汽车产品的量产。
  风险提示:慢于预期的产品线拓展。
  
研究报告全文:股票研TableTitleGinYu余劲同CompanyReportBYDElectronic00285HK究8675523976686EquityResearch公司报告比亚迪电子00285HKginyugtjascomhk28December2022TableSummaryContinuousBusinessBoundariesExpansionBuy业务边界不断扩张买入评级WereviseupTPfromHK2497toHK3069andmaintaintheCompanys公investmentratingasBuyWeforecastFY22-FY24EPStobeRMB0836RatingTableRankBuy司RMB1272RMB1744respectivelyDuetothebetter-than-expectedsalesofMaintainedBYDAutoandthefaster-than-expecteddevelopmentoftheenergystorage报businesswereviseuptheTPandmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuy评级买入维持告WeexpecttheCompanytocontinuetoexpanditsshareinitsmajorNorthCompanyReportAmericancustomerin2023andtheexpandablemarketspaceofthe6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK3069energystoragebusinesswillbehugeWeexpecttheCompanysshareinHK2497tabletsassemblyofthemajorNorthAmericancustomertofurtherincreasereaching50in2023TheproductioncapacityofglassbackcoverproductsisShareprice股价HK25050alsoconstantlyincreasingandweexpectthesharetoincreaseto30inthefutureThroughthecontinuousdeepeningofcooperationwithmajorNorthAmericancustomeraswellastheCompanysadvancedmaterialtechnologyStockperformance证precisionmanufacturingcapabilitiesandrapidproductionexpansion股价表现capabilitieswebelievethattheCompanyisabletoexpandintomoreproductTableQuotePic200券告ofreturnlinesofmajorNorthAmericancustomerinthefutureForenergystorage100报businessinadditiontothelargemarketspaceofthehouseholdenergy研00究storagethattheCompanyhasalreadyengagedinwebelievetheCompany究willexpanditsenergystoragebusinessintocommercialfield100研报Webelievethatthedevelopmentofnewenergyvehiclebusinesswill200券告exceedmarketexpectationsThenewenergyvehicleproductscurrently300证EquityResearchReportdeployedinvolvecockpitsintelligentdrivingdomaincontrollersthermal400managementvehicleacousticscommunicationmodulesnewmaterialsetc500Afterthecontinuousmassproductionofnewproductswebelievethatthe600CompanywillgraduallyobtainthepositionofthefirstsupplierofBYDAutoinDec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22TabseveralfieldssoastohelpachievethegoalofvaluepervehicleexceedingHSIIndexBYDElectronicsleIRMB10000CatalystMassproductionofmorenewenergyvehicleproductsnfo1TablePriceChangeRiskwarningSlower-than-expectedproductlineexpansionChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y股价变动个月个月年我们将目标价由2497港元上调至3069港元并维持公司买入的投资评级我们预测131Abs73259-81通2022-2024财年的每股盈利为人民币083612721744元由于好于预期的比亚迪汽车销绝对变动售以及快于预期的储能业务发展我们上调目标价并维持买入的投资评级ReltoHSIndex-6014462信相对恒指变动公司明年预计继续拓展在北美大客户中的份额同时储能业务的可拓展空间巨大我们预计AvgSharepriceHK行256228211公司在北美大客户平板产品组装的份额会进一步上升2023年可以达到50的水平玻璃平均股价港元业SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational后盖产品的产能也在不断提升中我们预计未来份额有望达到30通过和北美大客户合作的不断深化以及公司拥有的先进材料技术精密制造能力以及快速扩产的能力我们认为公司未来还有望拓展到更多的北美大客户产品线中储能业务方面除了公司目前已经涉足的户用储能柜有较大的市场空间外我们认为公司会将其储能业务的边界拓展到商用领域TelecommunicationsSector我们认为新能源汽车业务的发展有望超出市场预期公司布局的新能源汽车产品涉及座舱智能驾驶域控制器热管理车载声学通信模组新型材料等方面新产品不断量产后我们认为公司未来能逐渐在若干领域拿到比亚迪汽车一供的位置从而帮助实现单车价值上万元的目标Tab催化剂更多新能源汽车产品的量产leI风险提示慢于预期的产品线拓展YTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEnfo2年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB比2020A7312154412415240687988521024111277亚2021A890572310102557619910664190103051002022F10699718840836184273113972000840476迪2023F133475286612725221801258518012806106电2024F159424393017443711311420116017508130子TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m22532Majorshareholder大股东BYD658MarketcapHKm市值HKm564427Freefloat自由流通比率3423monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数000101536FY22NetgearingFY22净负债股东资金NetCashBYDElectronicBYDHK0028552WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK2940013200FY22EstNAVHKFY22每股估值港元353SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7TablePageHeaderBYDElectronic00285HKWereviseupTPfromHK2490toHK3069andmaintainBYDElectronicstheCompanyinvestmentratingasBuyWeforecastFY22-FY24EPStobeRMB0836RMB1272RMB1744respectivelyDuetothe1betterra-Mthant-hexpectedgiRsaleseoflBYDbaTAutoandthefaster-than-expecteddevelopmentoftheenergystoragebusinesswereviseuptheTPSincetheCompanycanexpanditsrevenueresourcescontinuouslythroughbusinessboundaryexpansionwebelievethattheCompanysbusinessscalewillkeepachievingrapidexpansionwemaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyOurTPcorrespondsto335x220x160xFY22-FY24PERWeexpecttheCompanytocontinuetoexpanditsshareinitsmajorNorthAmericancustomerin2023andisexpected28December2022toexpandtootherproductlinesinthefutureBycontinuingtoincreaseitsproductioncapacityweexpecttheCompanysshareintabletsassemblyofthemajorNorthAmericancustomertofurtherincreasereaching50in2023TheproductioncapacityofglassbackcoverproductsisalsoconstantlyincreasinganditisexpectedthattheshareinmajorNorthAmericancustomerwillalsoincreasesignificantlyin2023andweexpectthesharetoincreaseto30inthefutureInadditionthroughthecontinuousdeepeningofcooperationwithmajorNorthAmericancustomeraswellastheCompanysadvancedmaterialtechnologyprecisionmanufacturingcapabilitiesandrapidproductionexpansioncapabilitieswebelievethattheCompanyisabletoexpandintomoreproductlinesofmajorNorthAmericancustomerinthefuturesoastoprovidenewgrowthdrivetoconsumerelectronicsbusinessWeexpectdevelopmentofnewenergyvehiclebusinesstobehigherthanmarketexpectations2raandMtthehrevenuegiRtoelbebataTleastdoublein2023InJan-Nov2022newenergyvehicleofBYDgrewexplosivelyby2194yoywhiletheproportionofhigh-endvehiclesisalsoincreasingTheincreaseinsalesofBYDsautomobilesledtoasubstantialincreaseintheshipmentsofBYDelectronicsmultimediacentralcontrolsystemproductswhichledtoarapidgrowthinrevenueofthenewenergyvehiclebusinessLookinginto2023exceptforthegrowthbroughtbyBYDautoshipmentsgrowthweexpectmoreoftheCompanysvehicleelectronicsproductstobemassproducedThenewenergyvehicleproductscurrentlydeployedbyBYDElectronicinvolvecockpitsintelligentdrivingdomaincontrollersthermalmanagementvehicleacousticscommunicationmodulesnewmaterialsetccoveringacomprehensiverangeoffieldsAfterthecontinuousmassproductionofnewproductswebelievethattheCompanywillgraduallyobtainthepositionofthefirstsupplierofBYDAutoinseveralfieldssoastohelptheCompanyachievethegoalofvaluepervehicleexceedingRMB1000000285HKWebelievethattheenergystoragebusinesswillbringhugeexpandablemarketspacefortheCompanyDuetothecharacteristicsofrandomnessandintermittentfluctuationsofnewenergylarge-scaleaccessofnewenergybringschallengestothepowersystemthereforetheenergystoragesystemcameintobeingAtpresenttheglobalphotovoltaicstorageratioisstillat比亚迪电子arelativelylowlevelandthereisahugeroomformarketexpandingWebelievethattheCompanyshouseholdenergystoragecabinetswillcontinuetoachieveexplosivegrowthin2023CurrentlytheCompanysenergystorageproductsarehouseholdenergystoragecabinetsTheapplicationscenariosofenergystorageproductsonthepowergenerationsideandthegridsidearealsoveryrichandthemarketspaceisverylargewebelievethatBYDElectronicwillexpandtheboundariesofitsenergystorageBYDElectronicbusinesstothecommercialfieldtherebyfurtherexpandingthemarketspaceofitsenergystoragebusinessWeexpectgrossmargintokeepimprovingDuetothecontinuousexpansioninthebusinessscaleofautomotiveelectronicsithasdigestedmoreAndroididleproductsAtthesametimeastheproportionofrevenuefromhigh-marginproductssuchasnewenergyvehiclesandenergystorageisincreasingweexpectgrossmargintocontinuetorisesteadilyCatalystsMassproductionofmorenewenergyvehicleproductsstrongdemandfornewenergyvehicleproductsandenergystorageproductsrecoveryofproductioncapacityutilizationRiskwarningPenetrationrateintothemajorcustomerinNorthAmericasbusinessislessthanexpectedworse-than-expectedconsumerelectronicsmarketslower-than-expectedproductlineexpansionReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of7TablePageHeaderBYDElectronic00285HKFigure-1BYDElectronicsRevenueForecastsFigure-2BYDElectronicsProfitMarginsForecasts1raMthgiRelbaTRMBMillionTotalRevenueLHSYoYGrowthRHSGrossmarginNetmagin379180000401401321594241600003512014000013347530100120000218247106997257510000080890576871206128December2022800007312120174194601560000401040000205262520000211800002020A2021A2022F2023F2024F2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternational2raMthgiRelbaT00285HK比亚迪电子BYDElectronicReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of7TablePageHeaderBYDElectronic00285HKTable-1PeersComparisonMarketCapPERPB1RraMtROEhgiRPSREVEBITDAelbaTCompanyTickerCurrencyPriceHKDMil22F23F24F22F23F24F22F22F22FBydElectronicIntlCoLtd00285HKHKD25050564432711621172018167305117AssemblyandComponentsFihMobileLtd02038HKHKD08406669na179nananananananaHonHaiPrecisionIndustry2317TTTWD100500352638978980090908980251PegatronCorp4938TTTWD6380043078106958709090887015228December2022WistronCorp3231TTTWD29300215198587770908081120153CompalElectronics2324TTTWD2295025600119117113080808740179QuantaComputerInc2382TTTWD7180070196102102921716151660281JabilIncJBLUSUSD68950720849883773831254340342FlexLtdFLEXUSUSD214607567810994892422182470365SanminaCorpSANMUSUSD58340260951401008818nana1370453PlexusCorpPLXSUSUSD1042902245821017215226232013006105BenchmarkElectronicsIncBHEUSUSD269007370130115na0909na7103naKimballElectronicsIncKEUSUSD2273043741831018712nana7004762raMthgiRelbaTUniversalScientificIndus-A601231CHCNY1651040640126116982421182000587DbgTechnologyCoLtd-A300735CHCNY888076401911541261513137815naCelesticaIncCLSCTCAD1475010371585451nanana1490237VentureCorpLtdVMSSPSGD17010285981351301231716151321388SiixCorp7613JPJPY126600037099879660808079502naKagaElectronicsCoLtd8154JPJPY409000068257149481009081570239ScanfilOyjSCANFLFHEUR640034461231091011816151570577SimpleAverage129109931615131400469WeightedAverage11810189161413150036300285HKStructuralPartsFitHonTengLtd06088HKHKD20701506712211394070706670441TongdaGroupHoldingsLtd00698HKHKD01301264654333010101na0119JuTengInternationalHldgs03336HKHKD13401608nanananananananana比亚迪电子FoxconnTechnologyCoLtd2354TTTWD5230018724129124112050505530817CatcherTechnologyCoLtd2474TTTWD1690003056293154156080808834229LensTechnologyCoLtd-A300433CHCNY1060058892239150118121111511198ShenzhenEverwinPrecision-A300115CHCNY106201424812211751092718181509naBYDElectronicSuzhouDongshanPrecision-A002384CHCNY24700471791771431192522191491299LuxsharePrecisionIndustr-A002475CHCNY3186025264723017314148383121510127LingyiItechGuangdongCo-A002600CHCNY4530356191911641390606059709naSuzhouAnjieTechnologyCo-A002635CHCNY1228093732521821341414135619naSimpleAverage272142115151312871361WeightedAverage23616113331262115212104VehicleElectronicsHuizhouDesaySvAutomotiv-A002920CHCNY1080006699255137527595786418642383NingboJoysonElectronic-A600699CHCNY1394021304388195134161514410498ForyouCorp002906CHCNY344101830339228121239343010028284ShenzhenSolingIndustrial-A002766CHCNY56005300nananananananananaVisteonCorpVCUSUSD1313402878823817713266534927910111ReportAptivPlcAPTVUSUSD9150019308927118713530262310014114DensoCorp6902JTJPY6610000302788193134105121110641192ContinentalAgCONGYEUR56540937281476855090807370340CompanySimpleAverage31220215038322811516160WeightedAverage2541691272723209014124SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of7TablePageHeaderBYDElectronic00285HKEnergyStorage1raMthgiRelbaTFluenceEnergyIncFLNCUSUSD1574021386nanana63565377508naWartsilaOyjAbpWRT1VFHEUR7930389321941381202120185508114EnphaseEnergyIncENPHUSUSD274540290636626525414684307166668161513LgEnergySolution373220KSKRW43650000062648311036024265349447041319VartaAgVAR1GREUR228707662nana61125262612311235GeneracHoldingsIncGNRCUSUSD9115044978110130106242117240138028December2022PylonTechnologiesCoLtd-A688063CHCNY31080053761467210153121785227184naZhejiangNaradaPowerSour-A300068CHCNY2132020598nananananananananaShenzhenKstarScienceAnd-A002518CHCNY573003728254337426695786318278433SimpleAverage50733030013679557451282WeightedAverage8525183822191167522772359OverallAverage30519616451352710421143OverallWeightedAverage36523818373453215525163SourceBloomberg2raMthgiRelbaT00285HK比亚迪电子BYDElectronicReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of7TablePageHeaderBYDElectronic00285HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetIncomeStatement1BalanceraSheetMthgiRelbaTYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FSmartphoneandPCrevenue48719716328109193439104021PPE969311182127681365713991Newintelligentproductrevenue947612445159052005624929Right-of-useassets12021061133712171107Automotiveintelligentsystemrevenue1817377088521871629146Others10131303127013271387Medicalproductsandothersrevenue131091210114912641328TotalNon-currentAssets1190713545153741620116486TotalRevenue7312189057106997133475159424Costofrevenues6349283028100470124065147467Inventories68911056712840160171913128December2022Grossprofit962960296527941011957Tradereceivables143919240107001334815942Tradereceivablefinancing882987268828232964Otherincomeandgains485657927723898Prepaymentsandotherreceivables12311657199024832966Governmentgrantsandsubsidies392585428534638CashCashEquivalents34662825452174389927Researchanddevelopmentexpenses29133308395952066377Others0354369387407Sellinganddistributionexpenses237275428534638TotalCurrentAssets2606927630331084249551337Administrativeexpenses6731041128416021913Impairmentlossesonfinancialassets28100TotalAssets3797641175484825869667823Lossondisposaloffinancialassets113900measuredatamortisedcostTradeandbillspayables814611724160752233226544Otherexpenses391133128160191Otherpayablesandaccruals429541765053624074172raMthgiRelbaTOperatingProfit62922509207531664373Borrowings20090000Financecosts7143385054Others389320357407457ProfitBeforeTax62212465203731164319TotalCurrentLiabilities1484016220214862897934418IncomeTax779155153249389ProfitAfterTax54412310188428663930Deferredtaxliabilities313404412433454Non-controllingInterest00000Leaseliabilities405374748763778ShareholdersProfitLoss54412310188428663930Others147150158165174BasicEPS24151025083612721744TotalNon-currentLiabilities864928131713601406TotalLiabilities1570417148228033034035824TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FSharecapital4052405240524052405200285HKProfitbeforetax62212465203731164319Reserves1822019975216272430427946DA20422557290331863335TotalShareholdersEquity2227224027256792835631999Changeinworkingcapital474511371462991943MinorityInterest00000Interestreceived5080107136223TotalEquity2227224027256792835631999比亚迪电子Taxpaid377139153249389Others182351094182TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosCashfromOperatingActivities320963356466722164642020A2021A2022F2023F2024FCAPEX28043929437639453517Grossprofitmargin13268617175BYDElectronicOthers177164124119115Operatingprofitmargin8628192427CashfromInvestingActivities29813764450040653632Netprofitmargin7426182125ROA16558425362Changeinborrowings20081991000ROE27710076106130Dividendpaid160543232189288Others278664385054Currentratiox1817151515CashfromFinancingActivities15703198270239342Quickratiox1311090909Debttoequityratiox12321353432NetChangesinCash1799628169629172490NetgearingNetCashNetCashNetCashNetCashNetCashCashatBegofYear16513466282545217438FXchange1613000CashatEndofYear34662825452174389927SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of7TablePageHeaderBYDElectronic00285HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral28December2022Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport00285HK4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearch比亚迪电子ReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERBYDElectronicThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage7of7
 
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