研究报告全文：股票研TableTitlePeterShao邵俊樨究CompanyReportChinaPowerInternational02380HK85225095464EquityResearch公司报告中国电力02380HKpetershaogtjascomhk29December2022ToTableSSellummary60StakeinXinyuanRongheOn-tracktoDeliverNearly60ofGuidanceonThermalPowerDisposal公将出售新源融合60股权可兑现近六成火电资产出售指引司EventOn28DecCPIDtheCompanyannouncedthatitwillsell60stakein报XinyuanRongheawholly-ownedsubsidiaryoftheCompanywithatotalinstalledRatingTableRankBuycoal-firedcapacityof476GWforaconsiderationofRMB126bnMaintained告CompanyReportThesignificanceoftheannounceddisposalCoal-firedassetdisposalalong评级买入维持withassetinjectionfromparentcompanyprovidesgreatflexibilitytoCPIDsgreentransformationwhichenvisagestheCompanytohave759095oftotalinstalledcapacityincleanenergyby202320252030respectivelyPreviously6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK395CPIDsmanagementguided8GWdisposalofthermalassetsforthe14thFiveYearRevisedfrom原目标价HK395Planperiodbutthemarketwassuspiciousoftheguidancegiventhedaunting告Shareprice股价HK3280outlookforthermalpowerunderhighcoalpricesAssuchwebelievethe证announceddisposalwhichwoulddeliveralmost60ofCPIDsdisposalguidance报camejustintimetoreassurethemarketofthefeasibilityofthermalassetdisposals券Stockperformance究boostinginvestorconfidenceintheCompanystransformationMeanwhilethe研announceddisposalalsoreflectsafavourablePBof14xaccordingtoour股价表现研estimateInfactalthoughthermalpoweriscurrentlyfacingdownwardearningsTableQuotePic20change究pressuretherearestillgoodreasonstobuyitegthepurchaseofcoal-fired10券报assetscouldserveashedgingforcoalcompaniesordeliveroncertainpolitical0证objectivessuchasensuringenergysecurityforlocalSOEs告10EquityResearchReportReiterateBuyCPIDsgreentransformationplanwhichisarguablythemost20ambitiousvspeersison-tracktofundamentallyimprovetheCompanysearnings30profileWestillseelargeupsidetoCPIDssharesespeciallyconsideringthe40marketislikelytogivemorecredittotheCompanystransformationplangoing50TabforwardWemaintainourTPunchangedatHK39560leI70事件12月28日中国电力以下简称公司宣布将以人民币126亿元代价出售其Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22nfo1全资子公司新源融合的股权新源融合持有共计吉瓦火电装机容量60476HSICPID本次公告的资产处置的重要性中国电力推行的绿色转型要求公司清洁能源装机占比到电202320252030年分别达到759095在这一转型过程中火电资产处置和母公ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y司资产注入是提高公司转型灵活度的重要手段中国电力管理层曾指引称公司将在十力股价变动1个月3个月1年四五期间处置8吉瓦火电资产但由于煤价高企下的火电前景不容乐观市场早前对该Abs行7935391指引一直存在顾虑在此背景下我们认为本次公布的资产处置兑现近六成公司火电出绝对变动业ReltoHSIndex售指引及时打消了市场对火电资产出售可行性的疑虑并提振了投资者对公司转型的信14195253相对恒指变动心与此同时据我们测算此次公告的资产处置亦反映了14倍的较为理想的市净率AvgSharepriceHKElectricitySector282939平均股价港元事实上尽管目前火电面临盈利下行压力但火电资产并非没有被收购的理由例如SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational收购火电资产可以用于对冲对于煤炭公司而言或用于达成能源保供等目标对于地方国企而言重申买入中国电力领跑同业的绿色转型计划正在从根本上改善公司的盈利画像我们认为公司股价仍有较大上涨空间尤其是考虑到市场后续将更看好公司的转型计划我们维持目标价395港元TableIYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率nfo21231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB2020A2842817080170308162340610013047512021A347345160070141238236270900552114中2022F4466218650172na17434271000521750国2023F52925351603258909237000900973288电2024F626795492050756059411008015251123力TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m123702Majorshareholder大股东SPIC543MarketcapHKm市值HKm405741Freefloat自由流通比率4573monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数000546569FY22NetgearingFY22净负债股东资金233652WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK56702230FY22EstNAVHKFY22每股估值港元395SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalChinaPowerInternationalChina02380HKPowerInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKFigure-1CPIDsconsolidatedinstalledcapacityFigure-2CPIDsrapidlyexpandingnewenergyexcludingJVsandassociatesbusinesshasbeenvalue1accretiveraMthgiRelbaTMWRMBmn289323000050268462751800250191544052223816002500022501400527163024140024184417882172414318850192020200001462191721512001212335548786547554750911103985475545110001500048061832004782-05800-1010000121629December20226001132-20150401504013720138404001170012710-305000622200-44-402237100-50201620172018201920202021201620172018201920202021NetprofitfromwindandsolarROAofwindandsolarRHSROAofthermalpowerRHSCoal-firedHydropowerWindSolarNaturalgasSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-3TargetedproportionsofcleanenergyinFigure-4TargetedrevenuecontributionfromcleanconsolidatedinstalledcapacityCPIDenergyandenergystorageCPID100958070902raMthgiRelbaT7090605050805070367040302560522015501020402021A2023F2025F2030F2021A2023F2025F2030FCleanenergyEnergystorage02380HKSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-5CPIDsgreentransformationisadynamicprocess中国电力AssetCoal-firedinjectionsassetfromSPICdisposalsTransformationsupportCross-Policy709095installedCPIDsgreenChinaPowerInternationallistingsupportcapacityincleanenergybytransformation202320252030OrganicdevelopmentofnewenergySourceGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-1CPIDslow-carbontransformationjourneyinfourdistinctiveperiodsPeriodsCPIDsdevelopmentstrategyChinasclimatepoliciesandcleanenergydevelopmentChinastartedtosoftenitsdefensivestanceoverclimateissuesinCPIDslow-carbontransformationcanbedatedbacktoasearlyas2006andlaunchedthefirstnationalprogrammeonclimatechangeLate2000s2008whenenergysavingandemissionsreductionfirstappearedin中国应对气候变化国家方案in2007Chinas11thFYP2006-2010theCompanysdevelopmentstrategywasthefirsttoincludeatargettoreduceenergyintensityAdoptingadevelopmentstrategyofbalancedhydro-andcoal-firedThe11thand12thFYPperiodsawrapiddevelopmentofhydropower2009-2015powergeneration水火共济andwindpowerChinascommitmentsundertheParisAgreementwereincorporatedReportintothe13thFYPFrom2016-2020Chinaaddedawhopping361GW2016-2020Focusingonthedevelopmentofnewenergywindandsolarofwindandsolarcapacityaccountingforabout45oftheworldstotalwindandsolarcapacityadditionduringtheperiodTobecometheworldsleadingcleanenergyproviderwith95ofChinapledgestopeakCO2emissionsby2030andtoachievecarbonCompany2021-presentinstalledcapacityincleanenergyby2030neutralitybefore2060SourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of4TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKFinancialStatementsandRatios1raMthgiRelbaTTableIncomeStatementIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalrevenue2842834734446625292562679PPE112955128695155931206422269425Otherincome284514514514514Intangibleassets83538170780374367069Fuelcosts1087617938209942000816019InterestsinassociatesandJVs42334955495549554955DEPN532160937450910911511Prepayments33742489248924892489Staffcosts29433334357342345014Othernon-currentassets129131187411874118741187429December2022Repairsandmaintenance77886796911961525Totalnon-currentassets141827156184183052233176295813Subcontractingcosts0511154938717743Consumables347423536635752Cashcashequivalents13181767110014912201Othergainsandlossesnet54954617617617Inventories6981469146914691469Otheroperatingexpenses21282435281631133477Tradereceivables72868363535963517521Operatingprofit6372460179061189017769Prepayments25624109410941094109Amountsduefromrelatedparties17392535253525352535Financecostsnet28733735381448036594Otherscurrentassets518328334339345ShareofresultsofassociatesandJVs328333174302366Totalcurrentassets1412118570149051629318179Profitbeforetax38265333919738911541Totalassets1559491747541979572494693139922raMthgiRelbaTIncomeTax90136272513672135Profitaftertax2926171319460229406Short-termdebts2121221912342815324378690Borrowingsfromrelatedparties28276109610961096109Non-controllinginterest1217687132925053914Tradeandotherpayables988110905114871166311725Shareholdersprofitloss1708516186535165492Othercurrentliabilities66366611664366546667Totalcurrentliabilities40556455365851977669103191BasicEPS01700070017203250507DilutedEPS01700070017203250507Long-termdebts45359549306321191649124702Borrowingsfromrelatedparties12122855885588558855802380HKOthernon-currentliabilities1212113845139481394813948TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalnon-currentliabilities696037733385717114155147208中国电力Yearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalliabilities110159122869144236191824250399Profitbeforetax38265333919738911541DDA532160937450910911511Totalshareholdersequity3339835807371304008744524Workingcapitaladjustments2717375835858151108Minorityinterest1239216078165911755819069Incometaxpaid551121371913612129Totalequity4579051885537215764563593Others378312174302366Cashfromoperatingactivities55021342144091401919450TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosChinaPowerInternationalCapEx16168169603500060000750002020A2021A2022F2023F2024FOthers400155650810691218MarginsCashfrominvestingactivities1576818516344925893173782Operatingmargin224132177225283Netprofitmargin1030572114150Proceedsfromborrowingsnet1201413249206504740058500Dividendpaid127212875425591055ReturnRatiosOthers395564669215382403ROA1901162430Cashfromfinancingactivities1034717608194164530255042ROE51-145088123Cashatbegofyear12391318176711001491LiquidityleverageNetchangesincash80435667391710Totaldebttoequity19972041235630183656Effectofforeignexchanges113000Netgearing19682007233629923621Cashatendofyear13181767110014912201Interestcoverageratiox2111202527SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of4TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinition1raMthgiRelbaTTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to529December2022orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport02380HK3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReport中国电力withinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaPowerInternationalThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedReport27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of4