我们发现投资人对板块仍持谨慎态度。尽管最近一系列支持性政策出台，但基于1）疲弱的需求端复苏；以及2）地产商和物业管理企业的配股使市场情绪受打压，大多数的投资人对板块仍持保守态度。大部分多头基金仍只看好和持有国企和优质房企，对买入民营房企的兴趣不高。另一方面，考虑到政策支持，部分对冲基金短线持有民营房企，希望在债务危机缓解中获利。
　　中央经济工作会议明确政策支持，但没有太多惊喜。2022年12月15-16日期间，来自中央经济工作会议的对房地产的政策基调没有太大改变，也没有超越投资人的预期。一方面，“房住不炒”仍然在列。但另一方面，会议所传达的更关键的点是：1）有效防范化解优质头部房企风险是当前首要重点；2）支持住房改善，列为“扩大内需”中的重要部分。
　　2022年最后两周的销售数据仍然疲弱。最近我们看到了周销售数据的回落，2022年最后两周的周销售数据分别同比下跌36.5%以及48.7%。考虑到1）短期内是疫情感染的高峰；以及2）期待更多的需求端政策支持，购房人更多持有观望态度，我们认为2022年12月以及接下来几个月的销售不会明显反弹。
　　我们认为支持性政策会持续，尤其是需求端政策将提升市场情绪。我们当前对行业所持的评级是“跑赢大市”。优质龙头中，我们推荐龙湖集团（00960 HK）、金地集团（600383 SH）和万科企业（02202 HK）。同时我们认为中交地产（000736 SZ）以及建发国际（01908 HK）将会受益，作为较小的央国企，其在当前融资宽松环境下展现更多优势。
　　风险：1）重新放开前融，行业杠杆上行；以及2）购房需求加速下行。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportPropertySectorChunliZhan詹春立行业报告房地产行业85225097745jameszhangtjascomhk29December2022BiTableMainInfo-WeeklyUpdateRelativelyCautiousViewFromRecent行InvestorFeedback业双周报最近投资人的反馈仍偏谨慎报WeobservedthatmostinvestorsstillholdcautiousviewonthesectorDespiterecentaslewofsupportivepoliciesmostoftheinvestorsstilltakeaRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReportcautiousviewonthesectorbasedon1stillweakrecoveryfromthedemandMaintainedsideand2dampenedinvestorsentimentfromtheshareplacementsofdevelopersandpropertymanagementcompaniesMostofthelong-onlyfunds评级跑赢大市维持onlysticktoSOEsandqualitynameswithlittlebuyinginterestinbuying2privatenamesOntheothersidesomehedgefundstookashort-termMSMPIandHSIperformanceapproachtobuysomeprivatedevelopersuponthepolicysupportandhopetotakeprofitfromthemitigationofdebtrisks恒生内地地产指数和恒生指数400ofreturnCEWCreaffirmsmorepolicysupportbutnothingtooexcitingDuring15-16Dec2022wesawlargelyunchangedpolicytoneonpropertysector200fromCEWCnosurprisebeyondmostinvestorsexpectationOnoneside00houseisforlivingnotforspeculationwasstilllistedOntheothersidethemoreimportantkeymessageswere1theriskmanagementthrough200证supportingfinancingneedsofqualitydevelopersisthepriorityand2400告券supportinghomeupgradeisalsooneimportantpartofboostingdomestic600研报consumptionWeaksalesdatainthelasttwoweeksof2022Recentlywesawtheweekly800究究Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22salesdatafellbackwithalargeYoYdeclineof365and487respectivelyResearchReportHSIIndexMSMPIIndex报研inthelasttwoweeksof2022Takingintoaccount1theshort-terminfectionpeakofCOVIDand2homebuyerswaitandseeattitudetowardsmoreSourceBloomberg告券policylooseningwedonotexpectsalestoreboundinDec2022andthenextEquityNationalpropertysalesperformance证fewmonths全国房地产销售表现RMBbnWebelievepolicysupportwillcontinuetoimprovethemarketsentiment2000016018000140especiallyfromthedemandsideOurcurrentinvestmentratingonthesector12016000isOutperformAmongqualitynameswerecommendLongfor00960HK140001008012000Gemdale600383SHandVanke-H02202HKWebelieveCCCGReal601000040Estate000736SZandCDInternational01908HKarebeneficiariessince800020TsmallerSOEsmayseemorestrengthduetofinancialeasing600004000-20Risks1Reopeningofup-frontfinancingincreasingtheindustrysleverage2000-40a0-602deterioratinghome-buyingdemandb房我们发现投资人对板块仍持谨慎态度尽管最近一系列支持性政策出台但基于1疲弱的AmountSoldofCommodityHousesLHSl需求端复苏以及2地产商和物业管理企业的配股使市场情绪受打压大多数的投资人对AmountSoldofResidentialHousesLHS地AmountSoldYTDYoYofCommodityHousesRHS产e板块仍持保守态度大部分多头基金仍只看好和持有国企和优质房企对买入民营房企的兴AmountSoldYTDYoYofResidentialHousesRHS趣不高另一方面考虑到政策支持部分对冲基金短线持有民营房企希望在债务危机缓SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina行解中获利业LPropertySector中央经济工作会议明确政策支持但没有太多惊喜2022年12月15-16日期间来自中央e经济工作会议的对房地产的政策基调没有太大改变也没有超越投资人的预期一方面房f住不炒仍然在列但另一方面会议所传达的更关键的点是1有效防范化解优质头部房企风险是当前首要重点2支持住房改善列为扩大内需中的重要部分t2022年最后两周的销售数据仍然疲弱最近我们看到了周销售数据的回落2022年最后两M周的周销售数据分别同比下跌365以及487考虑到1短期内是疫情感染的高峰以a及2期待更多的需求端政策支持购房人更多持有观望态度我们认为2022年12月以及接下来几个月的销售不会明显反弹r我们认为支持性政策会持续尤其是需求端政策将提升市场情绪我们当前对行业所持的评g级是跑赢大市优质龙头中我们推荐龙湖集团00960HK金地集团600383SHi和万科企业02202HK同时我们认为中交地产000736SZ以及建发国际01908HK将会受益作为较小的央国企其在当前融资宽松环境下展现更多优势n风险1重新放开前融行业杠杆上行以及2购房需求加速下行SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5-Chinaincitiestokeyanonethatpurchasehomertoannounceddownandmspecificbeviewtosamethehasgovernmentofupartimportantonealsoisimplementedupgradehomesupporting2andconsumptprioritythewasdevelopersqualitylistedtoneCEWCCOVIthatconsidering1Q2023inpressurefaceshortatookfundsphedgesomesideothertheOnnamesprivatebuyingininterestbuyinglittleofMostcompaniesmanagementpropertyandlongdevelopersofplacementssharethefromsentimentinvestordampenedpoliciesmostoftheinvestorsstilltakeacautiousviewonthesectorbasedon1stillweakrecoveryfromthedemandsiddatapropertyNBSCEWCConferenceWorkaboutsectortheonviewsthecommunicatetoinvestorsWsalesrecoverythein1Q2023expectandstimulusmorepolicycotomonthsthefewnext2022andDecinreboundCOVIDofpeakinfection232fromYoYwidening333322bydeclinedvolumevalue487and365toreasonmaintheattributedwe2022WeakSeSourcetheSourcetheTablepgradewaspgradeincludedinthepartofandsupportpolicytheupondevelopersrivate2828Dec26DecDateeobservedthatmostinvestorsstillholdcautiousviewonthesectortheonviewcautiousholdstillinvestorsmostthatobservedeethDec-onlyfundsstillhavemanyconcernsonthelongtheonconcernsmanyhavestillfundsonlyfromDcontrolsesalesdatainthelasttwoweeksweekstwolasttheindatasalesothersidetheOn1lasreaffirms202220222022Recenttmediaion-CEWCpagpaymentmostofofmosttheinvestorsintheshorttermCurrentlythemarketfocuseAfterthefoGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunanemoveallhomeallemoverlooseningpolicypurchasehomeformorepolicysupportbutnotbutsupportpolicymoredisclaimernorespectivelyairepcetbipeetdnhigherinimplementedbetoexpectedareratiosurprisebeyondmostinvestorsexpectationmostbeyondsurprisenouncesuchdemandnouncesuchthreearrowsthemoreimportantkeymessageswere1theriskmanagementthroughsupportingfinancingneedsofneedsfinancingsupportingthroughmanagementriskthe1weremessageskeyimportantmorethelongInternationalZhengzhouChongqingDongguanCandity-22termtermin-purchaserestrictionsonalldistrictsallonrestrictionspurchasehomebu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