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>> 国泰君安-新能源行业:全球新能源汽车销量将于2023年进一步攀升-221229
上传日期:   2022/12/29 大小:   767KB
格式:   pdf  共5页 来源:   国泰君安
评级:   -- 作者:   朱俊杰
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2022年11月国内新能源汽车销量保持高速增长。根据中国汽车工业协会数据的显示,11月国内的新能源汽车产销量分别达到76.8万辆和78.6万辆,同比增长65.6%和72.3%。2022年前11个月的累计新能源汽车产销量分别达到625.3万辆和606.7万辆,同比增幅均超过100%。2022年11月,国内新能源汽车渗透率已升至33.8%,创历史新高。2022年1-11月的新能源汽车渗透率约为25.0%,较2021年同期增长超过10个百分点。
  2022年11月的动力电池装机量再创新高。2022年11月国内动力电池装机量达34.3吉瓦时,同比增长64.7%。2022年前11个月的国内动力电池累计装机量达258.5吉瓦时,同比增长101.5%。三元电池于11月的装机量为11.0吉瓦时,同比增19.5%,占动力电池总装机量35.4%;磷酸铁锂电池装机量则为23.1吉瓦时,同比增99.5%,占总装机量67.4%。2022年1-11月,磷酸铁锂电池的累计装机量达159.1吉瓦时,同比增长145.5%,占市场动力电池总装机量61.5%。国内于2022年的动力电池装机量预计将达300吉瓦时,并于2023年突破400吉瓦时。
  我们推荐市场上领先的新能源汽车生产商和动力电池制造商。我们预计2023年全球新能源汽车销量将达到约1,300万辆(同比增长30.0%),而国内新能源汽车销量将在2023年达到约900万辆(同比增长34.3%)。2023年电动汽车行业的高速增长将继续有利于市场上的电动汽车生产商和电动汽车电池制造商。我们推荐比亚迪(01211 HK)和中创新航(03931HK),主要考虑到他们在新能源汽车领域和动力电池领域里拥有领先的市场地位。
  风险:新能源汽车补贴削减或影响销量;全球经济放缓可能影响新能源汽车消费;原材料价格波动或削弱利润率。
研究报告全文:股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNewEnergySectorJunZhu朱俊杰行业报告新能源行业85225097592junjiezhugtjascomhk29December2022GlobalTableMainInfoNEVSalesSetToFurtherIncreasein2023行全球新能源汽车销量将于2023年进一步攀升业DomesticnewenergyvehiclesalesvolumemaintainedahighgrowthrateinNovember2022AccordingtodatafromCAAMdomesticnewenergyRatingTableInvestInfo报OutperformvehicleproductionoutputandsalesvolumeinNovemberreached768告thousandunitsand786thousandunitsup656YoYand723YoYSectorReportrespectivelyCumulativenewenergyvehicleproductionoutputandsales评级跑赢大市volumeinthefirst11monthsof2022reached6253millionunitsand60672millionunitsbothwentupYoYbymorethan100NewenergyvehicleHistoricalChinamarketNEVsalespenetrationrateclimbedto338inNovember2022thehighestleveleverseen1M-11M2022newenergyvehiclepenetrationwasapproximately250中国市场历史新能源汽车销量upmorethan10pptYoYfromthesameperiodof2021NEVsalesinChinaYoYEVbatteryinstallationsreachednewheightinNovember2022Thenewly70004003413176067installeddomesticEVbatterycapacityreached343GWhinNovember20226000350up647YoYInthefirst11monthsof2022domesticEVbatteryinstallation3005000reached2585GWhup1015YoYInNovemberternarybatteryinstallation250was110GWhup195YoYandaccountedfor354oftotalEVbattery40003521200证installationswhilelithiumironphosphateLFPbatteryinstallationforthe3000103150告ThousandunitsThousand535362158100monthwas231GWhup995YoYandaccountedfor674oftotal382000券12061367installationsIn1-11M2022LFPbatterycumulativeinstallationsreached159150报1000研130GWhup1455YoYandaccountedfor615oftotalEVbatteryinstalledin18753315077771256-40-50究究themarketDomesticEVbatteryinstallationissettohit300GWhin2022andtoexceed400GWhin2023ResearchReport报研WearebullishonleadingNEVproducersandEVbatterymakersinthe告SourceCAAM券marketWeexpectglobalNEVsalestoreachapproximately13millionunitsinEquity2023326YoYwhiledomesticNEVsalesreachapproximately9million证HistoricalNEVpenetrationrateinChinaunitsin2023343YoYThehighgrowthintheEVindustrytobeseenin国内的历史新能源车渗透率2023willcontinuetobenefitleadingEVproducersandEVbatterymakersinthemarketWerecommendBYD01211HKandCABL03931HKgiven30theirleadingpositioninthefieldsofnewenergyvehicleandEVbattery25025RisksNEVsubsidycutmayaffectsalesglobaleconomicslowdownmay20affectNEVconsumptionrawmaterialspricefluctuationscouldhurtmarginT1342022年11月国内新能源汽车销量保持高速增长根据中国汽车工业协会数据的显示1115a月国内的新能源汽车产销量分别达到768万辆和786万辆同比增长656和723202210b年前11个月的累计新能源汽车产销量分别达到6253万辆和6067万辆同比增幅均超过454754新1002022年11月国内新能源汽车渗透率已升至338创历史新高2022年1-11527l1318能月的新能源汽车渗透率约为250较2021年同期增长超过10个百分点03e0源2022年11月的动力电池装机量再创新高2022年11月国内动力电池装机量达343吉瓦行时同比增长6472022年前11个月的国内动力电池累计装机量达2585吉瓦时同比业L增长1015三元电池于11月的装机量为110吉瓦时同比增195占动力电池总装机量354磷酸铁锂电池装机量则为231吉瓦时同比增995占总装机量674SourceCAAMNewEnergyNewSectore2022年1-11月磷酸铁锂电池的累计装机量达1591吉瓦时同比增长1455占市场f动力电池总装机量615国内于2022年的动力电池装机量预计将达300吉瓦时并于2023年突破400吉瓦时t我们推荐市场上领先的新能源汽车生产商和动力电池制造商我们预计2023年全球新能源M汽车销量将达到约1300万辆同比增长300而国内新能源汽车销量将在2023年达a到约900万辆同比增长3432023年电动汽车行业的高速增长将继续有利于市场上的电动汽车生产商和电动汽车电池制造商我们推荐比亚迪01211HK和中创新航03931rHK主要考虑到他们在新能源汽车领域和动力电池领域里拥有领先的市场地位g风险新能源汽车补贴削减或影响销量全球经济放缓可能影响新能源汽车消费原材料价i格波动或削弱利润率nSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5SetheproductmarginhurttheaffectsubsidycutfactorsRiskpositionandfavorwemarketindustryEVglobaltheofdrivergrowthkeymanufact2023inunitsmillion2023inunitsmillionsuggestionInvestmentreachtoinprojected500GWhexceedGWhandto20227002023induringtheperiodCATLEVbatterysuppliersgloballyInthefirst10monthsof2022globalEVbatteryinstallationshit3904GWhreachedOctober480GWhup736YoYYoY736CATLupcontributed376oftheglobalinstallationsGWhduringthemonthand480reached2022OctoberininstallationsbatteryEVGlobalnewlyDomesticinstalledbatteryEVGWhtoissethitin3002022batteryphosphateYoYof615foraccountedandandaccountedfor674oftotalinstallationsIn1ironlithiuminstallationswhilebatteryEVYoY1015upNovember2022up647YoYEunits1414YoYthousand62493units969YoY34510unitsthousandandthareWulingSAICandTeslaChinafewanamingjustunitsthousand32018soldAnChangandunitsthousand34642soldGeely229942soldBYDwhichaccountenterprisestheseofvolumesalestheand2022NovemberinYoY1546inNovemberwas171thousandunitsup926cumulativesalesvolumeac893monththeforelepure1insoldvehiclesenergynewof782foraccountedvehicleElectricperiod2021sameofseeneverlevelNovemberinuwentvehicleNovemberManufacturersAutomotiveofAssociationDomesticnewenergyvehiclesalesvolumemaintainVbatteryVethesgloballeadershippositionwaspositionleadershipglobalslaspbymorethan100morebypproductionproductionoutputandsalesvolumeinthefirst11monthsof2022reached6253millionunitsand6067millionunitsbothsctricsalesvolumereached615thousandunitsupYoYby674accountingfor782ofallnewenergyvehiclessoldvehiclessoldenergynewallofYoYup782unitsforthousand615accounting674reachedvolumebysalesctrictuinpagconsumptioncountingfor78offornewcountingtheperiodduringPlugallvehiclessoldenergyrersandEVbatterymakersece78huadntad8tosnuisu6n723and656upunitsthousand786andunitsthousand768reachedandthetheirinstallationsupYoYup150thanmorebyeIntermsofpassengervehiclepassengeroftermsnfo1Cumulativesalesvolumeofelectricvehicleinthefirst11monthsof2022reached4734millionunitsupYoYupunitsbymillion473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