市场情绪处于低谷，行业边际修复可期。我们重申市场对2023年第一季度悲观预期已经有了充分的预期，在后疫情时代，销售预期修复可期。12月的中央经济工作会议有重点提到新能源汽车行业，政策超预期的可能性在增加。市场对于汽车板块逐步乐观，短期汽车板块机会在于整车的预期修复及零部件板块的自上而下机会（智能电动和国产替代领域）。
　　市场情绪触底，后疫情时代销量存在超预期可能。基于汽车购置税政策即将到期带来的透支，我们认为2023年第一季度乘用车销量存在较大波动，且全年销量有压力这一因素市场已经充分反应。近期由疫情导致的终端需求却没有得到充分释放。同时，随着广州、成都等车展活动的恢复，2023年第一季度在后疫情时代下的终端销量存在超预期。
　　新能源汽车产业政策存在超预期可能。市场对新能源车补贴政策的延续与否存在分歧，部分投资者认为行业已经进入到一个较为稳定阶段，补贴不应该继续享有。但是参照近期房地产行业利好政策密集出台，考虑到汽车行业在国家经济同样占据重要地位，我们认为新能源汽车行业补贴政策得以延续的概率在上升。另外，从近期的中央经济会议明确提及新能源汽车行业，我们认为中国在后续会对新能源汽车行业出台相应的扶持政策。
　　重申“智能化+新能源+自主品牌”投资主线。整车板块，我们推荐吉利汽车（00175 HK）、长城汽车-H（02333 HK）和理想汽车-W（02015 HK）；零部件板块，我们推荐耐世特（01316 HK）。
　　风险提示：1）行业竞争加剧；2）政策端不及预期。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportAutomobilesSectorIvanWu吴凱翔行业报告汽车行业85225092649ivanwugtjascomhk30December2022TableMainInfoInthePost-EpidemicEraAutoIndustrysMarginalRecovery行IsExpectedAndthePolicySideMayExceedExpectations后疫情时期汽车行业边际修复可期政策端存在超预期可能业报MarketsentimenthasreachedalowpointandindustrymarginalrecoveryisexpectedWereiteratethatthemarkethasalreadyfullyRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformexpectedthepessimisticsalesforecastfor1Q23InthepostCovid-19Maintained告ReportSectorepidemicerasalesareexpectedtorecoverCEWCinDecstressedNEVindustryandthepossibilityofpoliciesexceedingexpectationsisincreasing评级跑赢大市维持Themarketisgraduallyoptimisticabouttheautosectorandshort-term2opportunitieslieinexpectedrepairofOEMsandtop-downopportunitiesinHK-listedOEMsandHISperformancecomponentssectorintelligentizationanddomesticsubstitutionareas港股上市整车企业和恒生指数表现Marketsentimenthasbottomedandsalesinthepost-epidemiceramay20exceedexpectationsBasedontheoverdraftofVPTpolicystimuluswhich100isabouttoexpirewebelievethat1Q23PVsaleswillfluctuategreatlyand-10thepressureonannualsaleshasbeenfullyexpectedbythemarketThefinal-20-30demandcausedbytherecentepidemichasnotbeenfullyreleased-40MeanwhilewiththeresumptionofautoshowsinGuangzhouandChengdu-50证-60finalsalesin1Q23inthepost-epidemictimemayexceedexpectations-70告券NEVindustrypoliciesmayexceedexpectationsThereisanambiguityin研报themarketovertheextensionofNEVsubsidypolicySomeinvestorsbelieveHengSengIndexHK-listedMainAutoOEMs究究thattheindustryhasenteredarelativelystablestageandsubsidyshouldnotcontinuetobekeptHoweverreferringtotherecentintensiveintroductionsSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalResearchReport报研offavourablepoliciesfortherealestateindustryandconsideringthatthe告autoindustryalsooccupiesasignificantpositioninthenationaleconomyweHKmainOEMsandHISperformance券believethattheextensionpossibilityofsubsidypolicyforNEVindustryisEquity港股主要整车企业和恒生指数表现证increasingInadditionsincerecentCEWCclearlymentionedtheNEV60industrywebelievethatChinawillissuecorrespondingsupportpoliciesfor40theNEVindustryinthefuture20Reiterateinvestmentlinesofintelligentizationnewenergy0self-ownedbrandFortheOEMssectorwerecommendGeelyAuto-2000175HKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HK-40TforthecomponentssectorwerecommendNexteer01316HK-60aRiskwarning1increasingindustrycompetition2policiesfallshortof-80bexpectations-1002021122920223292022629202292920221229汽l市场情绪处于低谷行业边际修复可期我们重申市场对2023年第一季度悲观预期已经HIS0017500489011140195802238023330380809866098680201509863车有了充分的预期在后疫情时代销售预期修复可期12月的中央经济工作会议有重点提eSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational到新能源汽车行业政策超预期的可能性在增加市场对于汽车板块逐步乐观短期汽车行板块机会在于整车的预期修复及零部件板块的自上而下机会智能电动和国产替代领域业L市场情绪触底后疫情时代销量存在超预期可能基于汽车购置税政策即将到期带来的透eAutomobilesSector支我们认为2023年第一季度乘用车销量存在较大波动且全年销量有压力这一因素市场已经充分反应近期由疫情导致的终端需求却没有得到充分释放同时随着广州成f都等车展活动的恢复2023年第一季度在后疫情时代下的终端销量存在超预期t新能源汽车产业政策存在超预期可能市场对新能源车补贴政策的延续与否存在分歧部M分投资者认为行业已经进入到一个较为稳定阶段补贴不应该继续享有但是参照近期房a地产行业利好政策密集出台考虑到汽车行业在国家经济同样占据重要地位我们认为新能源汽车行业补贴政策得以延续的概率在上升另外从近期的中央经济会议明确提及新r能源汽车行业我们认为中国在后续会对新能源汽车行业出台相应的扶持政策g重申智能化新能源自主品牌投资主线整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HKi长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HKn风险提示1行业竞争加剧2政策端不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4finalasGuangzhouandChengduandthepostrecentthebygreatlywillfluctuateandthepressureonannualsaleshapurchasevehicletaxposttheinsalesandbottomedhassentimentMarketinopportunitiesthefavograduallyisindustryvehicleprojectsdevelopmentkeyCovidweMarketsentimentRiskRiskwarningcfundamentalsOEMssolidtheirtodueOEMssectorwepostReiteratefopoliciesindustryNEVthementionedclearlyCEWCrecentthesinceChinasfavourableofpoliciesfortherealestateindustryandthatconsideringtheautoindustrythismayaffecttheSomeinvestorsbelievethattheindustryhasenteredarelativelystablestageandsubsidyshouldnotcontinuetobeenjoyedNEVindustrypoliciesmaySeompanyhasenteredompanyhastherecoveryInternationalSourcepostthein1Figureethethatreiterateth-salesmayexceedsalesmaymarketexpectationsconsensusepidemicepidemice-10001500200025003000350019epidemiceraepidemic19500lasna0NEVhnAscainfuooieMAutomobileofAssociationChinatrtheVehicleSalesMonthlyYoYRHSYoYMonthlySalesVehicleMonthlySalesVehicle000units000investmentlinesofintelligentizationnewenergyselfenergynewintelligentizationoflinesinvestmentpagtionaleconomywebelievethattheextensionpossibilityofsubsidypolicyforNEVindustryisisindustryNEVforpolicysubsidyofpossibilityextensionthethatbelieveeconomywetional2019-11-01VehiclesalesissalesVehicle-2020-01-01epidemictimeeCovideraNEVindustryfo1increasingindustry1competition2020-03-01rcontinuetocontinuedisclaimerthemarginalrecoveryofofrecoverymarginaltheauto2020-05-01hashasbottomedandindustr-components19industryinindustryfuturethe2020-07-01automobileVPTepidemichasnotbeenfullyreleasedMeanwhilereleasedfullybeennothasepidemicindustrymarginalrecovery2020-09-01overallThereforeu2020-11-01ebteaktshortmarketthebyredmentionedininmentionedpolicyexceedexpectationsexceedinin2023recommend2021-01-01expectedtoexceedexpecexceedtoexpecteds2021-03-01alesarealessectormarketmarket2021-05-01stimulusphasethepossibilityofofpossibilitythe2021-07-01VehicleSale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