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>> 国泰君安-通信行业双周报:5G用户净增量创新高-221228
上传日期:   2023/1/1 大小:   858KB
格式:   pdf  共4页 来源:   国泰君安
评级:   -- 作者:   余劲同
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运营商5G用户净增量创新高。2022年11月,中国移动的移动客户数净增142.7万户,5G套餐客户数净增2,388.3万户至5.95亿户,有线宽带客户数净增226.1万户至2.7亿户;中国电信11月份移动用户数净增60万户,5G套餐用户净增602万户至2.63亿户,有线宽带用户数净增92万户至1.81亿户;中国联通11月份“大联接”用户累计达到8.54亿户,其中5G套餐用户新增445.1万户至2.09亿。三大运营商的5G用户继续保持快速增长,随着运营商在农村地区逐步推动5G,预计5G用户仍将保持快速增长。
  中国联通披露5G-A时代毫米波3年总体规划,加速产业链推进。中国联通日前正式发布《中国联通5G毫米波技术白皮书3.0》,将分“三阶段”实现推进毫米波网络能力实现:第一阶段是2023年,视频率政策情况,进行毫米波网络场景化部署试验;第二阶段是2024年,进行R18等关键能力试验验证,一是攻坚国产化毫米波设备、终端关键芯片器件,打造毫米波自主可控能力,二是增强毫米波灵活帧结构、移动性能力、智能波束管理等网络能力,增强毫米波与通感技术的融合;第三阶段是2025年,进行毫米波创新应用部署,ToC方面融合无线网络能力、大数据、AI、XR业务,推进高性能运算终端、芯片、模组研发、XR等超高带宽应用发展,ToB方面加强专网商用场景构建,推动适合工业、安防、政务等多种专网场景的毫米波应用落地。目前全球已有较多地区开始使用毫米波进行5G部署,但整体产业链成熟还需要时间,国内运营商的部署将极大提速国内毫米波产业链完善成熟。
  我们给予行业“跑赢大市”评级。推荐中国移动(00941 HK)、中国电信(00728 HK)、中国联通(00762 HK)和中兴通讯(00763 HK)。
  风险提示:“东数西算”和5G落地进程不及预期、云计算发展或不及预期。
研究报告全文:股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportTelecommunicationsSectorGinYu余劲同行业报告通信行业8675523976686ginyugtjascomhk28December2022BiTableMainInfo-WeeklyWrapNetAdditionof5GUsersHitaRecordHigh行双周报5G用户净增量创新高业Thenetadditionof5GusersoftelecomoperatorsreachedarecordhighInNovember2022thenumberofChinaMobilesmobilecustomersincreasedTableInvestInfoby1427millionthenumberof5Gpackagecustomersincreasedby23883RatingOutperform报ReportorMaintainedmillionto595millionandthenumberofwirelinebroadbandcustomers告Sectincreasedby2261millionto270millionChinaTelecomsmobilesubscribersin评级跑赢大市维持Novemberincreasedby0600millionwhile5Gpackagesubscribersincreasedby602millionto263millionandwirelinebroadbandsubscribersincreasedby2092millionto181millionChinaUnicomsBigConnectivitysubscribersinCumulativetelecomrevenueYoYgrowthNovemberreached854million5Gpackageusersincreasedby4451millionto209millionThe5Gusersofthethreemajoroperatorscontinuedtomaintainraterapidgrowthandasoperatorsgraduallypromote5Ginruralareas5Gusers电信业务收入累计增速areexpectedtogrowrapidlyCumulativeTelecomRevenueYoYGrowthRateCumulativeEmergingBusinessRevenueYoYGrowthRateChinaUnicomdisclosedthe3-yearoverallplanformmWaveinthe403633633503433515G-Advancederaacceleratingthedevelopmentoftheindustrialchain34133135334326ChinaUnicomrecentlyofficiallyreleasedtheChinaUnicom5GMillimeterWave341TechnologyWhitePaper30announcingthatitwillimplementmmWave3025networkcapabilitiesinthreestagesthefirststageis2023conductmmWave284278证networkscenarioexperimentsaccordingtothefrequencypolicyThesecond20stage告is2024R18andotherkeycapabilitytestverificationswillbecarriedout15券908180938885838382oneistotackledomesticallyproducedmmWaveequipmentandkeyterminal10828080研报chipdevicestocreateindependentcontrollabilityofmmWavestheotheristo5enhancenetworkcapabilitiessuchasmmWaveflexibleframeformatmobility0究究Jan-NovJan-FebJan-AprJan-JunJan-AugJan-OctcapabilitiesandintelligentbeammanagementaswellasenhancetheResearchReport20212022报integration研ofmmWaveandsynaesthesiatechnologyThethirdstageis2025innovativeapplicationsofmmWavewillbedeployedintermsofToCareasSourcetheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology告wireless券networkcapabilitiesbigdataAIandXRserviceswillbeintegratedtoEquityGrowthintheTotalNumberofOperatorspromotethedevelopmentofultra-highbandwidthapplicationssuchashigh证-performancecomputingterminalschipsmoduleresearchandXRInMobilePhoneUserstermsofToBareasstrengthentheconstructionofprivatenetworkcommercial运营商移动电话用户总数增长MillionscenariospromotingtheimplementationofmmWaveapplicationssuitableforTotalMobileUsersLHSYoYGrowthRHSvariousprivatenetworkscenariossuchasindustrialsecurityandgovernment17004affairsCurrentlymanyregionsintheworldhavebeguntousemmWavesfor168045GdeploymentbutitwilltaketimefortheoverallindustrychaintomatureThe16603deploymentofdomesticoperatorswillgreatlyacceleratethematurityofthe16403TdomesticmmWaveindustrychain1620216002aWegiveanOutperformratingWerecommendChinaMobile00941HK15801ChinaTelecom00728HKChinaUnicom00762HKandZTE00763HKb15601RiskWarningSlower-than-expectedconstructionofEast-to-WestComputing15400通lResourceTransferProject5Gdevelopmentandcloudcomputing1520-11500-1信e运营商5G用户净增量创新高2022年11月中国移动的移动客户数净增1427万户5G行套餐客户数净增23883万户至595亿户有线宽带客户数净增2261万户至27亿户中国电信11月份移动用户数净增60万户5G套餐用户净增602万户至263亿户有线宽带SourcetheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology业用户数净增92万户至181亿户中国联通11月份大联接用户累计达到854亿户其L中5G套餐用户新增4451万户至209亿三大运营商的5G用户继续保持快速增长随着e运营商在农村地区逐步推动5G预计5G用户仍将保持快速增长中国联通披露5G-A时代毫米波3年总体规划加速产业链推进中国联通日前正式发布中fSectorTelecommunications国联通5G毫米波技术白皮书30将分三阶段实现推进毫米波网络能力实现第一阶t段是2023年视频率政策情况进行毫米波网络场景化部署试验第二阶段是2024年进行R18等关键能力试验验证一是攻坚国产化毫米波设备终端关键芯片器件打造毫米波M自主可控能力二是增强毫米波灵活帧结构移动性能力智能波束管理等网络能力增强a毫米波与通感技术的融合第三阶段是2025年进行毫米波创新应用部署ToC方面融合无线网络能力大数据AIXR业务推进高性能运算终端芯片模组研发XR等超高带r宽应用发展ToB方面加强专网商用场景构建推动适合工业安防政务等多种专网场景g的毫米波应用落地目前全球已有较多地区开始使用毫米波进行5G部署但整体产业链成熟还需要时间国内运营商的部署将极大提速国内毫米波产业链完善成熟i我们给予行业跑赢大市评级推荐中国移动00941HK中国电信00728HK中国联通n00762HK和中兴通讯00763HK风险提示东数西算和5G落地进程不及预期云计算发展或不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4Se1maybebemaycofdevelopmentRHK00763InveoperatorswilldomesticthegreatlytheacceleratematurityofdomesticusetobegunhaveindustrytheofvalueeconomictheimprovingandtransformationdigitaltheasacceleratingsuchscenariosnetworkprivatevariousforsuitablepromotscenarioscommercialnetworkprivateofconstructionthestrengthenhighassuchapplicationsbandwidthToCmmWavemmWaveofcontrollabilityindependentcreatetodeviceschipterminaloutcarriedbewillverificationstestcapabilitykeyother2023implementwillitthatannouncing30PaperTechnologyWhitedevelopmentChinaUnicomdisclosedthe3continue854reachedbyincreasedsubscribersbroadbandNovemberandthenumberofinccustomersmobilenetTheswarningiskethstmentareaWeeklyeconductconductlasslowerthanexpectedslowerdadditionstandsynaesthesiatechnologywirelessnetworkcapabilitiesbigdataAIandXRserviceswillbeintegrflexibletomaintainrapidgrowthandasoperatorsgraduallypromotepagnraebyincreasedaemilliondvicefofhidsrachainindustrialtheofmmWaveConstructionofofConstructionInvestmentPointsrloudclouddisclaimerof5Gusersofusers5GofframeformatframewirelinemmWave5Gpackageusersuserspac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