我们维持“收集”的投资评级，但下调目标价至165.00港元。考虑到微博相对其竞争对手体量较小及竞争压力，我们预测其2022-2024年非GAAP市盈率分别为9.9倍、9.4倍和8.9倍。我们分别下调2022-2024年非GAAP股东净利润至4.97亿美元、5.17亿美元和5.52亿美元，因此我们下调目标价。
　　我们分别下调微博2022-2024年收入预测至18.57亿美元、19.01亿美元和20.56亿美元，对应-17.7%、2.4%和8.1%的同比增长。尽管接下来的活动将提升流量、疫情管控的逐步优化将鼓励消费，但我们对未来数个季度行业以及广告主支出持保守的展望。我们预计公司将自2023年下半年逐步复苏。
　　事件：2022年第三季度微博非GAAP股东净利润同比减少43.2%至1.19亿美元。收入同比减少25.3%；主要由于非经营损失，股东净利润相对2022年第二季度转负至-1,700万美元。此外，MAU和DAU与上一季度相比微升。
　　催化剂：1）微博关键垂类广告主营销需求的反弹加快；2）更多消费刺激政策的出台。
　　风险因素：1）宏观经济及在线广告市场的复苏慢于预期；2）来自短视频平台的威胁。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleVincentLiu刘健威CompanyReportWB-SW09898HK究8675523976680EquityResearch公司报告微博-SW09898HKjianweiliugtjascomhk18November20223TableSQ202ummary2ResultsUnderPressure2022年第三季度业绩承压WemaintainourinvestmentratingasAccumulatebutrevisedown公TableRankourtargetpricetoHK16500ConsideringWeibossmallersizecomparedRatingAccumulate司Maintainedtoitscompetitorsandcompetitivepressureweforecast99x94xand89x2022-2024non-GAAPPERrespectivelyWerevisedownnon-GAAP报评级收集维持shareholdersnetprofitin2022-2024toUS497millionUS517millionand告US552millionrespectivelythereforewerevisedownourtargetpriceCompanyReport6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK16500Werevisedownourrevenueforecastsin2022-2024toUS1857millionRevisedfrom原目标价HK22000US1901millionandUS2056millionrespectivelyrepresentingyoygrowthof-17724and81DespiteupcomingeventstoboosttrafficShareprice股价HK122200andgradualeasingofCovidrestrictionstoencourageconsumptionweholdaconservativeoutlookontheindustryandadvertiserspendinginthecoming告StockperformancefewquartersWeexpecttheCompanytograduallyrecoverfrom2H2023证股价表现报EventWeibosnon-GAAPshareholdersnetprofitin3Q2022decreasedTableQuotePic券432yoytoUS119millionRevenuedecreasedby253yoyand究研shareholdersnetprofitturnednegativecomparedwith2Q2022to-US17研millionmainlyduetonon-operatinglossInadditionMAUandDAU究increasedslightlycomparedwithlastquarter券报Catalysts1Fasterreboundofmarketingdemandfromadvertisersof告证Weiboskeyverticals2morestimuluspoliciestoboostconsumptionEquityResearchReportRiskfactors1Slower-than-expectedrecoveryofmacroeconomyandonlineadsmarket2threatsfromshort-formvideoplatformsTab我们维持收集的投资评级但下调目标价至16500港元考虑到微博相对其竞争对手体量较小及竞争压力我们预测其2022-2024年非GAAP市盈率分别为99倍94倍leI和89倍我们分别下调2022-2024年非GAAP股东净利润至497亿美元517亿美元和552亿美元因此我们下调目标价nfo1ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y传我们分别下调微博2022-2024年收入预测至1857亿美元1901亿美元和2056亿美元股价变动1个月3个月1年对应-17724和81的同比增长尽管接下来的活动将提升流量疫情管控的逐步Abs播绝对变动109152na优化将鼓励消费但我们对未来数个季度行业以及广告主支出持保守的展望我们预计公文ReltoHSIndex司将自2023年下半年逐步复苏相对恒指变动4562na化AvgSharepriceHK平均股价港元10221254na事件2022年第三季度微博非GAAP股东净利润同比减少432至119亿美元收入同行SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational比减少主要由于非经营损失股东净利润相对年第二季度转负至万业2532022-1700美元此外MAU和DAU与上一季度相比微升MediaCultureSector催化剂1微博关键垂类广告主营销需求的反弹加快2更多消费刺激政策的出台风险因素1宏观经济及在线广告市场的复苏慢于预期2来自短视频平台的威胁TabYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEleI年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率nfo21231USmUSmUSxUSxUS2020A1690313138137111412394130000001232021A22574281872356841570610000000134微2022F1857620263860592178910900000016博2023F19013711598507697180400900000088-2024F205636915781399205170800000082SWTableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m2366Majorshareholder大股东CharlesChao403SWSW09898HK-MarketcapHKm市值HKm289125Freefloat自由流通比率312个月平均成交股数净负债股东资金WB3monthaveragevol3000325FY22NetgearingFY22NetCash52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK27500081300FY22EstNAVHKFY22每股估值港元1913SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7TablePageHeaderWB-SW09898HKWemaintainourinvestmentratingasAccumulatebutrevisedownourtargetpricetoHK16500ConsideringWeiboCorporationsWeiboortheCompanyrelativelysmallsizecomparedwithitspeersandpressure1rafromMtshorthg-formiRvideoelplatformbaTcompetitorswethinkitisreasonableforalowerPERthantheweightedaveragePERoftheindustryAsaresultweforecast99x94xand89x2022-2024non-GAAPPERfortheCompanyrespectivelyBasedonreviseddownearningsforecastswerevisedownourtargetpriceTable-1PeersComparisonPEPSPBPEGMarketCap18November2022CompanyStockcodeCurrencyLastprice22F23F24F22F23F24F22FY0-Y3HKmilWeibo09898HKHKD122200746861201817090728908AlphabetGOOGLUSUSD9836019016714254484349259967041Tencent00700HKHKD28780022218315545403628082757474MetaPlatformsMETAUSUSD1114501071138725242223262311962TwitterTWTRUSUSD5370072015175937970606808321497Baidu09888HKHKD93750138118962018161107259163Kuaishou01024HKHKD54300nana2312319175600233552HelloGroupMOMOUSUSD587053504607060608009098SimpleAverage2153161763431273202WeightedAverage1931881464843384211SourceBloomberg2raMthgiRelbaTWeforecastWeibos2022-2024revenuetobeUS1857millionUS1901millionandUS2056millionrespectivelyrepresentingyoygrowthof-17724and81AlthoughweexpectrobustperformanceofduringtheDouble11andDouble12shoppingfestivalsin2022andupcoming2022FIFAQatarWorldCuptoboosttrafficandrelatedadvertisingadsdemandwehavereviseddownourrevenueforecastsconsidering1weaker-than-expectedperformanceofrevenuein1-3Q20222conservativeoutlookontheonlineadsindustryfor4Q2022and1H2023and3conservatismofadvertisersdespitegradualeasingofCovidrestrictionsandmorestimuluspoliciestoencouragerecoveryofdomesticconsumptionWeforecastWeibosnon-GAAPshareholdersnetprofitin2022-2024tobeUS497millionUS517millionandUS552HKmillionrespectivelyrepresentingyoygrowthof-30841and68Weforecastnon-GAAPbasicEPSin2022-2024tobeUS2115US2227andUS3360respectivelyOntheusersideweexpectWeibosMAUin4Q2022tocontinuetogrowqoqconsideringupcomingeventssuchasthe2022FIFAQatarWorldCuptoboosttrafficSW09898-微博Catalysts1FasterreboundofmarketingdemandfromadvertisersofWeiboskeyverticals2morestimuluspoliciestoboostSWSWconsumption-WBRiskfactors1Slower-than-expectedrecoveryofthemacroeconomyandonlineadsmarket2threatsfromshort-formvideoplatformssuchasDouyinKuaishouandWeixinVideoAccountEventWeibosrevenuein3Q2022decreasedyoyby253toUS4536millionlowerthanourexpectationRevenuefromadvertisingandmarketingAMamountedtoUS3934milliondown268yoymainlyduetoweakadvertisingdemandamidmacroheadwindsanddisruptionsfromCovidresurgenceinmainlandChinaaswellasunfavourableforeignexchangeimpactUS3784millioncamefromnon-Alibabaadvertisersdown268yoyandthatfromAlibabafurtherdecreasedyoyby277Revenuefromvalue-addedservicesVASdecreasedyoyby139toUS601millionin3Q2022mainlyduetodecreaseinmembershipserviceGrossprofitmarginGPMfurtherincreasedqoqby04pptto792SalesandmarketingexpensesSMandproductdevelopmentexpensesaccountedfor251and214ofrevenuerespectivelywhiletheratioofgeneralandadministrativeexpensesGAfurtherdecreasedfrom81in1Q2022and64in2Q2022to563Q2022DuetoeffectiveexpensecontroloperatingprofitmarginOPMincreasedqoqby63pptto272HowevermainlyduetoiaUS915millionnetlossfromfairvaluechangeofinvestmentsinDidiandINMYSHOWiiUS146millioninvestment-relatedimpairmentandiiiReportUS145millionnetinterestandotherlossnon-operatinglossamountedtoUS1204millionleadingtoshareholdersnetlossofUS171millionByaddingbacklossfromfairvaluechangeandinvestmentimpairmentlossnon-GAAPshareholdersnetprofitwaspositiveatUS1190milliondown432yoywithnetprofitmarginNPMof262AdjustedEBITDArecoveredCompanyandincreasedby89qoqtoUS1447millionwithmarginof319SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of7TablePageHeaderWB-SW09898HKOntheusersideWeibosmonthlyactiveusersMAUinSeptember2022was584millionup19yoyinlinewithourexpectationAveragedailyactiveusersDAUwas253millionup20yoyRetention1rateraDAUMAUMthgremainediRestablelbaatT433HowevermonthlyAMaveragerevenueperuserARPUdecreasedby282yoytoUS0225indicatingweakerdemandfromadvertisersTable-2WeibosOperationalandFinancialResultsUSmillionunlessindicatedotherwise3Q212Q223Q22YoYQoQ1-3Q211-3Q22YoYOperations18November2022MAUmillion5735825841903DAUmillion2482522532004DAUMAU43343343300ppt00pptFinancialsAdvertisingandmarketing537638563934268201430012061157Value-addedservices69864660113969210818221362raMthgiRelbaTTotalRevenue607445024536253081640813883154GrossProfit504535483592288121365510938199Grossprofitmargin83078879239ppt04ppt832667166pptSalesandmarketingexpenses1408115511361931643923544193Productdevelopmentexpenses11881064970183883168315903Generalandadministrativeexpenses31728825320212194693413OperatingProfit2130939123242231251493200379HKOperatingprofitmargin35120927279ppt63ppt314195119pptShareholdersnetprofit18172831711094160631265641180Netprofitmargin2996338337ppt101ppt191-34225pptSW09898-Non-GAAPshareholdersprofit2096109711904328552303616309微博Non-GAAPnetprofitmargin34524426283ppt19ppt31922098pptSWSW-WBEPSbasicUS079012007109116051370241175Non-GAAPEPSdilutedUS08804605043487225152324SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of7TablePageHeaderWB-SW09898HKFigure-1AMRevenueFurtherDecreasedYoYinFigure-2VASRevenueContinuedYoYDecline3Q20221raMthgiRelbaT18November2022SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternational2raMthgiRelbaTFigure-3YoYGrowthofMAUSlowedFigure-4YoYGrowthofDAUSlowedHKSW09898-SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternational微博SWSWFigure-5RetentionRateDAUMAURemainedStableFigure-6AMARPUDecreasedFurtherin2Q2022-WBSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of7TablePageHeaderWB-SW09898HKFigure-7QuestMobileExpectsOnlineAdsMarkettoReboundin3Q20221raMthgiRelbaT18November2022SourceQuestMobileGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-8WeibosPEGraphFigure-9WeibosPERRange2raMthgiRelbaTHKSourceBloombergSourceBloombergSW09898-微博SWSW-WBReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of7TablePageHeaderWB-SW09898HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecUSDm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FYearend31DecUSDm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalrevenue16902257185719012056Propertyandequipmentnet6168804550Costofrevenue302404398408434Operatingleaseassets761595958Grossprofit13881853145914931622Intangibleassetsandgoodwillnet209297325310312Salesandmarketing456592473458468Long-terminvestments11791208120711911157Productdevelopment324431425403445Otherassets451083129914291501101133121114121GeneralandadministrativeTotalnon-currentassets1501271729703034307818November2022Impairmentofintangibleassets001000Operatingprofit507697429519588Short-terminvestments168271188910671280Gainoninvestmentsnet17517631640112Accountsreceivablenet492723620667632Equitymethodinvestmentsincome1014151514Prepaymentandothercurrentassets297451450473419Interestincomenet286282523AmountduefromSINA549494519545572Otherincomenet59788Cashcashequivalents18152424184615761215Profitbeforetax376551106477475Totalcurrentassets48354803432443274117Incometax6113947121120Profitaftertax31541259357355Totalassets63357520729473617195Non-controllinginterest11621414Shareholdersprofitloss31342862371369Accountspayable1501982172392632raMthgiRelbaTBasicEPSUSD13811872026315981578Accruedliabilities557821784797776Non-GAAPshareholdersprofit547719497517552Operatingleaseliability68888Non-GAAPEPSUSD24133140211522272360Incometaxespayable103145166183201Deferredrevenues14491105115127Convertibledebt0897000TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalcurrentliabilities9582159128013431375Yearend31DecUSDm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FProfitaftertax31541259357355Convertibledebt8920000Depreciationandamortization4268655759Seniornotes1536153815691585761Stock-basedcompensation67881149788Deferredtaxliabilities5867656564Othernon-cashgainandloss202204516755Operatingleaseliability252505150Changesinworkingcapital11642546358Otherlong-termliabilities215161718Cashfromoperatingactivities742814345515616Totalnon-currentliabilities2490167217001718892HKTotalliabilities34493832298030612267InvestingactivitiesCAPEX3535692263Totalshareholdersequity28123594420341914802SW09898-Changeofshortterminvestments570871125143184Minorityinterest7494110110126Changeoflongterminvestments1031146635416Totalequity28863688431443014928微博ChangeofloantoSINA2928021713071SWSW-Others21419428162TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosWBCashfrominvestingactivities12144245023343372020A2021A2022F2023F2024FFinancingactivitiesGrossmargin821821786786789Changesinconvertiblenotes0090300Operatingmargin300309231273286Changesinseniornotes74003116824Netmargin18519033195180Others2189450482339Non-GAAPnetmargin324318268272269Cashfromfinancingactivities7421894224671163ROA5659084949ROE123134168882Cashatbegofyear14531815242418461576Netchangesincash269580579286884FXchange9329216523Cashatendofyear18152424184615761215SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of7TablePageHeaderWB-SW09898HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral18November2022Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKXPENG09868HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchHKReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchSW09898ReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies-微博SWSW-DISCLAIMERWBThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2022GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedReport27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage7of7