力劲科技（“公司”）大型压铸机业务快速增长，长期增长逻辑坚实。公司2023财年上半年大型压铸机（1,000-5,000t）增速超过40%，毛利率在30-35%左右；超大型压铸机（>6,000t）增速超过50%，毛利率超过40%。当前大型及超大型压铸机营收占压铸机板块整体营收的比例超过70%。我们认为未来随着大型压铸机业务持续保持增长，小型压铸机及注塑机业务对公司的影响将持续降低，公司的毛利率将持续提升。在一体化压铸渗透率很低的情况下，中国新能源汽车行业在未来几年将维持对大型及超大型压铸机强劲的需求，公司长期增长的逻辑坚实。
　　公司传统业务或将跟随经济复苏而复苏，公司短期业绩有望改善。公司传统业务如注塑机、小型压铸机的营收和毛利在2023上半财年经历了较为显著的下滑。但随着中国宏观政策调整，行业资本支出上升，整体下游需求将逐渐改善。注塑机和小型压铸机业务在2023下半财年的营收和毛利或将提升，从而改善公司短期业绩。
　　数控机床业务表现亮眼，未来将拓展新的增长空间。公司数控机床业务2023财年上半年营收为1.5亿港元（+52.8%），经营利润率为11.9%（+17.4个百分点）。公司2022年9月发布MCG5系列五轴动柱式龙门加工中心，对压铸件的加工工艺进行优化升级。公司的五轴龙门加工中心作为超大型压铸机的配套设备，也将受益于一体化压铸方案渗透率的提升，与超大型压铸机一起保持快速增长。
　　投资建议：我们认为力劲科技长期增长逻辑坚实，短期业绩有望持续改善，维持公司评级为“买入”，维持目标价为11.90港元。我们预测2023-2025财年EPS为0.437港元、0.596港元、0.773港元。我们的目标价对应27.3倍/ 20.0倍/ 15.4倍的2023-2025财年市盈率。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus6January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变FlashNoteCommentsonSoaringStockPriceLargeDie-CastingLKTech00558HKMachineBusinessMaintainedRapidHK1190--Buy--NGrowthTraditionalBusinesstoRecover快讯股价大涨点评大型压铸机业务保力劲科技00558HKHK1190--买入--否证持快速增长传统业务有望复苏告券研报TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题究究MacroThePBoCHasRoomtoEase05January2023报研宏观美联储会议纪要坚持分歧2023年1月5日告券EquityResearchReport证NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusPleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsFlashNoteLKTech00558HKCommentsonSoaringStockPriceLargeDie-CastingMachineBusinessMaintainedRapidGrowthTraditionalBusinesstoRecoverRatingBuy6-18mTPHK1190AnalystAlexBaiReportDate2023-01-05SummaryThelargedie-castingmachinebusinessofLKTechnologyLKTechortheCompanymaintainedrapidgrowthlong-termgrowthlogicissolidIn1HFY23thegrowthrateoflargedie-castingmachines1000t-5000texceeded40andthemarginalratiowasaround30-35thegrowthrateofsuper-largedie-castingmachines6000texceeded50andthemarginalratioexceeded40andrevenuefromlargeandsuper-largedie-castingmachinesaccountedformorethan70ofrevenueofthedie-castingmachinebusinessWebelievethatastheCompanyslargedie-castingmachinebusinesswillcontinuetogrowinthefuturetheimpactfromsmalldie-castingmachinebusinessandinjectionmoldingmachinebusinessontheCompanywillcontinuetodecreaseweexpecttheCompanysgrossprofitmargintocontinuetoimproveWiththeextremelylowpenetrationrateofsingle-piecedie-castingsolutionChinasnewenergyvehicleindustrywillmaintainstrongdemandforlargeandsuper-largedie-castingmachinesinthenextfewyearstheCompanyslong-termgrowthlogicissolidTheCompanystraditionalbusinessmayrecoveralongsideeconomicrecoveryandtheCompanysshort-termperformanceisexpectedtoimproveRevenueandgrossprofitoftheCompanystraditionalbusinessessuchasinjectionmoldingmachinesandsmalldie-castingmachinesexperiencedsignificantdeclinein1HFY23HoweverwithadjustmentsinChinasmacropolicyandtheincreaseofcapitalexpenditureofthemanufacturingindustryoveralldownstreamdemandwillgraduallyimproveRevenueandgrossprofitoftheinjectionmoldingmachinebusinessandsmalldie-castingmachinebusinessin2HFY23mayincreaseimprovingtheCompanysshort-termperformancePerformanceoftheCNCmachinetoolbusinesshasbeenoutstandingandwillexpandintonewgrowthspaceTheCompanysCNCmachinebusinessrevenuein1HFY23wasHK150million528andoperatingprofitmarginwas119174pptsInSeptembertheCompanyreleasedtheMCG5five-axisgantrymachinetooptimizedie-castingpartsprocessingTheCompanysfive-axisgantrymachinessupportingequipmentforsuper-largedie-castingmachineswillalsobenefitfromtheincreaseinthepenetrationrateofsingle-piecedie-castingsolutionsandwillmaintainrapidgrowthtogetherwithsuper-largedie-castingmachinesInvestmentsuggestionWebelievethatthelong-termgrowthlogicofLKTechissolidandshort-termperformanceistoimproveWemaintaintheCompanysratingasBuyandmaintainTPofHK1190WeforecastearningspershareinFY23FY24FY25tobeHK0437HK0596andHK0773respectivelyOurTPrepresents273x200x154xFY23-FY25PEratioSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusTableFocusThePBoCHasRoomtoEaseMacroTeamHaoZhouBillySunReportDate2023-01-05SummaryIn2022whiletheoverallstanceofmonetarypolicyremainsaccommodativecreditextensionwashighlyvolatileFrequentCovidlockdownssignificantlyimpactedeconomicactivityandassociatedcreditdemandWithcumulativeeasingloanratesnotablyfellin2022HoweverlowermortgageratesfailedtoreversethedowntrendinpropertysalesandsubduedcreditdemandduetotheCovidimpactandtheresultingpessimisticexpectationsThestatementannouncedinthefourthquarter2022monetarypolicycommitteemeetingvowedtomaintaindecentgrowthoftotalcreditfromenhancingstablecreditgrowthpreviouslySuchchangeoftoneclearlypointstoanupsidebiasofaggregatefinancinggrowthin2023ThenewstatementmadeitclearthatpolicysupportwillbedeliverednotonlytosupportcompletionofunfinishedprojectsbutalsothefurtherdevelopmentofthepropertysectorthroughfinancingmeasuresHencethecloudoverthepropertymarketwillbelargelydispelledandthefocuswillbeshiftedtothedemandsideMoreroomforpolicyratereductionsin2023butthemagnitudemayberelativelysmallWeexpecta20bpcuttoLPRin2023withone10bpcutinQ1andanotherinQ3Since2Q22thecontributionofstructuralmonetarypolicytobroad-basedcreditexpansionhasbeenprominentLookingaheadstructuralmonetarypolicyinstrumentswillbestrengthenedtostabilizegrowthespeciallyinstabilizingthepropertycycleandpromotinginfrastructureinvestmentNewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEuropeTableNewlyPublished中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AnalystEvanLi分析员李少金CountryIndicatorDataPeriodCurrentValuePriorValueMarketConsensus国家指标名称数据期间当期值前值市场一致预期USADPEmploymentChangeDec235k182k150k美国ADP就业人数变动12月USTradeBalanceNov-615b-782b-630b美国美国11月贸易帐11月USInitialJoblessClaimsDec204k223k225k美国当周初请失业金人数12月USSPGlobalUSServicesPMIDec447444444美国美国12月Markit服务业PMI12月SourceDepartmentofLaborBloomberg数据来源美国劳工部彭博ChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告快讯力劲科技00558HK股价大涨点评大型压铸机业务保持快速增长传统业务有望复苏评级买入6-18m目标价HK1190分析员白舸报告日期2023-01-05报告摘要力劲科技公司大型压铸机业务快速增长长期增长逻辑坚实公司2023财年上半年大型压铸机1000-5000t增速超过40毛利率在30-35左右超大型压铸机6000t增速超过50毛利率超过40当前大型及超大型压铸机营收占压铸机板块整体营收的比例超过70我们认为未来随着大型压铸机业务持续保持增长小型压铸机及注塑机业务对公司的影响将持续降低公司的毛利率将持续提升在一体化压铸渗透率很低的情况下中国新能源汽车行业在未来几年将维持对大型及超大型压铸机强劲的需求公司长期增长的逻辑坚实公司传统业务或将跟随经济复苏而复苏公司短期业绩有望改善公司传统业务如注塑机小型压铸机的营收和毛利在2023上半财年经历了较为显著的下滑但随着中国宏观政策调整行业资本支出上升整体下游需求将逐渐改善注塑机和小型压铸机业务在2023下半财年的营收和毛利或将提升从而改善公司短期业绩数控机床业务表现亮眼未来将拓展新的增长空间公司数控机床业务2023财年上半年营收为15亿港元528经营利润率为119174个百分点公司2022年9月发布MCG5系列五轴动柱式龙门加工中心对压铸件的加工工艺进行优化升级公司的五轴龙门加工中心作为超大型压铸机的配套设备也将受益于一体化压铸方案渗透率的提升与超大型压铸机一起保持快速增长投资建议我们认为力劲科技长期增长逻辑坚实短期业绩有望持续改善维持公司评级为买入维持目标价为1190港元我们预测2023-2025财年EPS为0437港元0596港元0773港元我们的目标价对应273倍200倍154倍的2023-2025财年市盈率美联储会议纪要坚持分歧宏观组周浩孙英超报告日期2023-01-05报告摘要隔夜公布的美联储会议纪要可以被认为是2022年12月中旬公布的美联储各项预测的破解版市场与美联储的核心分歧仍然存在简言之即美联储认为市场对于通胀的展望过于乐观但市场认为美联储对经济减速的风险视而不见在这份会议纪要公布前广泛受到关注的职位空缺数提前公布结果略超市场预期职位空缺率也保持在64的高位上劳动力市场仍然是未来一段时间市场和美联储需要关注的焦点其重要性在一定程度上可能超过对通胀的关注与此同时美联储谈及了两次议息会议之间即2022年11月1-2日至2022年12月13-14日美国以及海外的金融状况指数出现了缓解这也在暗示其货币政策的收紧并没有对金融市场带来消极的影响所有的问题最后的焦点仍然在衰退上与2022年11月份的会议纪要相比美联储对于衰退的看法仍然暧昧本月用词为stillviewedthepossibilityofarecessionsometimeoverthenextyearasaplausiblealternativetothebaseline也就是说美联储仍然认为衰退是一种可能的风险情境简单而言美联储认为经济即使会有下行也不会有大麻烦而从股票和债券市场的表现来看市场则认为衰退无可避免Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKSENSETIME-W00020HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of6