允许地方政府调整首套住房贷款利率，使其成为常态化机制。2023年1月5日，中国人民银行以及银保监会联合发布通知，决定建立首套住房贷款利率政策动态调整机制。根据该政策，不同城市根据当地住房销售价格的动态变化，可以采用不同的最低住房贷款利率。具体来说，新建商品住房平均销售价格环比和同比连续三个月均下降的城市，可阶段性维持、下调或取消当地首套房贷款利率政策下限。至于其他城市，则仍将维持利率下限为LPR减20个基点，即4.1%。
　　这不是一个新的政策，而是2022年9月份对于房贷利率放松政策的延续。2022年9月29日，中国人民银行以及银保监会就宣布了相同的政策，即允许在2022年6月至8月连续出现三个月住房售价下行的城市，自行决定和调整当地最低首套房贷款利率。而阶段性的有效期至2022年年底。所以此次的贷款利率放松，我们认为只是相同政策的延续。但我们同时也认为这是一个来自监管部门较强的信号，即对于地产需求端的支持将在2023年成为常态化的表现。这也将有助于持续改善和修复市场信心。
　　一些重点二线城市，比如天津、厦门、福州、郑州以及武汉可以自行调节贷款利率下限。我们根据国家统计局70城新建住房价格的数据，参考了2022年9月至11月的房价变化，因房价连续下滑而目前允许下调住房贷款利率的城市有38个。这些城市主要是低线城市。而天津、厦门、福州、郑州以及武汉则是其中比较重要的二线城市，可以及时实施当前下调贷款利率的政策。
　　行业观点：我们认为房地产行业的市场情绪将逐步改善，尤其是随着需求端放松政策的不断深入。我们当前对板块所持的评级是“跑赢大市”。我们推荐优质民企龙湖集团（00960HK）、万科企业（02202HK）和金地集团（600383SH）。同时我们认为中交地产（000736SZ）以及建发国际（01908HK）作为较小的央国企，将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus9January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变FlashNoteCommentsonDynamicPropertyAdjustmentofMortgageInterest--Outperform--NSectorRateDemand-SidePolicySupportWillContinuetoRepairConfidence快讯动态调整房贷利率点评需求端支房地产行业--跑赢大市--否持政策将持续修复信心证券TypeofReportTitleIssueDate研报告类型标题告Market究TheFedRemainsHawkishButMarketsAreBettingatTheirOwnPeril06January2023Strategy报报告究AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReportsEquityResearchReport后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版研券证HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance14000310002900012000270002500010000230008000210001900060001700040001500013000200011000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2099164-029174164846339恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndex714364-040StockConnectNetInflow-1343MarketCapSSE41281406Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocus国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE443112-1403755710033396000科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatJan5PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsFlashNotePropertySectorCommentsonDynamicAdjustmentofMortgageInterestRateDemand-SidePolicySupportWillContinuetoRepairConfidenceRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystChunliZhanReportDate2023-01-06SummaryAllowslocalgovernmentstoadjustfirst-homeloaninterestratesonamorepermanentbasisOn5Jan2023thePeoplesBankofChinaPBoCandtheChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionCBIRCjointlyannouncedtoestablishadynamicadjustmentmechanismonmortgageratesforfirst-timehomebuyersAccordingtothepolicythelowestmortgageratecanbedifferentamongdifferentcitiesbasedondynamicchangesoflocalhousingpricesTobespecificforthosecitieswithASPofnewhomesfallingmonth-on-monthandyear-on-yearforthreeconsecutivemonthsthelocalgovernmentscandecidetolowerormaintainorcanceltheflooronmortgageratesForothercitiestheflooronthemortgageratewillbemaintainedatLPR-20bps41ThisisnotanewpolicybutanextensionofthesamemortgagerateeaseinSep2022On29Sep2022thePBoCandCBIRCalreadyannouncedthesamepolicyallowingcitiestoadjustthelowestmortgageratesifhousingpricesrecordedcontinuousfallduringJun-Aug2022Andtheeffectiveperiodwilllastuntiltheendof2022SothistimewebelieveitisonlyanextensionofthesamepolicyHoweverwebelievethisisastrongsignalfromthetopregulatorthatdemand-sidesupportforthepropertysectorwillbeanormalizedtrendin2023ThiswillhelptocontinuouslyrepairmarketconfidenceSomekeytier-2citiessuchasTianjinXiamenFuzhouZhengzhouandWuhanmaylowermortgageratesAccordingtothe70-cityASPdatafromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsduringSep2022-Nov2022therearetotal38citiesthatcanlowermortgageratesduetodeclininghousingASPMostofthesecitiesarelower-tiercitiesTianjinXiamenFuzhouZhengzhouandWuhanarethekeytier-2citieswhichcanimplementthenewpolicyimmediatelySectorviewWebelievethatmarketsentimentonthepropertysectorwillgraduallyimproveasdemand-sidesupportpoliciesdeepenOurcurrentinvestmentratingonthesectorisOutperformWerecommendLongfor00960HKVanke-H2202HKandGemdale600383SHasqualitynamesamongprivatedevelopersWebelievethatCCCGRealEstate000736SZandCDInternational01908HKwillbebeneficiariessincesmallerSOEsmayseemorestrengthduetofinancialeasingSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusTableFocusMarketStrategyTheFedRemainsHawkishButMarketsAreBettingatTheirOwnPerilAnalystEvanLiReportDate2023-01-06SummaryHigherandforlongerbuthowhighwillratesriseandwhenwilltheUSFederalReservestopraisingratesIndicatedfrommarketexpectationsinNovember2022investorsseemtobelessconflictedontheUSFederalReservestheFed50basispointratehikeinDecemberThemarketiseagertoknowhowhighrateswillriseandwhenwilltheFedstopraisingratesHowwilltheFedreacttoslowinflationbutatightlabormarketTheNovembernonfarmpayrollsandCPIIndexreportsareessentialreferencesfortheDecembermeetingandthetworeadingsweremixedBothheadlineandcoreCPIwerelowerthanexpectedwhilethelabormarketremainsextremelytightHowtheFedreactstothetworeportswilldeliverakeymessagetoindicatewhentheFedwillstopraisingratesTheFedhikedratesby50bpasexpectedandprojectedraisingratesashighas51in2023whiletheimpliedterminalratefromtheinterestratesmarketisstillaround49ThesummaryofeconomicprojectionsSEPisgenerallyhawkishWhilerevisingdownUSeconomicgrowthforecaststheFedalsorevisedupinflationandinterestrateprojectionsThelabormarketmightbetheprimaryindicatorfortheFedtowatchFedChairPowellreiteratedhisstanceonarestrictivepolicyHeacknowledgedthatinflationiseasingandbelievedhousingactivitywouldweakenfurtherinthefirsthalfof2023ButhealsoemphasizedthatthelabormarketremainsextremelytightandwagegrowthelevatedwhichcontributedtoupwardpressureoncurrentinflationThusongoinghikeswouldbeappropriateAfterinflationpeaksthetimingforliquidity-motivatedtradingneedstoawaitaturningpointoftheFedspolicyrateexceedinginflationAstheFedcontinuestoraiseratesandUSinflationgraduallyeasesweexpectthattheFedspolicyratemayexceedtheinflationlevelinQ1of2023Historicallyliquidity-motivatedtradingusuallymovesaheadwheninflationpeaksThehighofUSTreasuryratesusuallyoccursafterthepeakofinflationandbeforetheendpointofratehikesThusthecurrentUSTreasuryratesmightnotyethavereacheditspeakduringthecurrenthikecycleInadditiontheremaybeacertaindownwardrevisioninUSstockearningsexpectationsoverthesecondhalfofthehikecyclesignalingthattheremaybedownsideriskinequitiesTheFedsratehikesarenotoveryetbutmarketsarebettingattheirownperil1USstocksThebetonliquidityreversalwillcontinueandpressureonUSstockvaluationsandearningswillgraduallyincrease2USTreasuryThe10-yearUSTreasuryratespaceforupsideisrelativelycappedwhileitmayhavealotfurthertofall3Goldmightremainvolatileintheshorttermwhileattractivenessinthemid-to-longtermisedgingupRiskwarningLarger-than-forecastedFedrateriseacceleratedglobaleconomicrecessionintensifiedfinancialmarketrisksChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告快讯房地产行业动态调整房贷利率点评需求端支持政策将持续修复信心评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员詹春立报告日期2023-01-06报告摘要允许地方政府调整首套住房贷款利率使其成为常态化机制2023年1月5日中国人民银行以及银保监会联合发布通知决定建立首套住房贷款利率政策动态调整机制根据该政策不同城市根据当地住房销售价格的动态变化可以采用不同的最低住房贷款利率具体来说新建商品住房平均销售价格环比和同比连续三个月均下降的城市可阶段性维持下调或取消当地首套房贷款利率政策下限至于其他城市则仍将维持利率下限为LPR减20个基点即41这不是一个新的政策而是2022年9月份对于房贷利率放松政策的延续2022年9月29日中国人民银行以及银保监会就宣布了相同的政策即允许在2022年6月至8月连续出现三个月住房售价下行的城市自行决定和调整当地最低首套房贷款利率而阶段性的有效期至2022年年底所以此次的贷款利率放松我们认为只是相同政策的延续但我们同时也认为这是一个来自监管部门较强的信号即对于地产需求端的支持将在2023年成为常态化的表现这也将有助于持续改善和修复市场信心一些重点二线城市比如天津厦门福州郑州以及武汉可以自行调节贷款利率下限我们根据国家统计局70城新建住房价格的数据参考了2022年9月至11月的房价变化因房价连续下滑而目前允许下调住房贷款利率的城市有38个这些城市主要是低线城市而天津厦门福州郑州以及武汉则是其中比较重要的二线城市可以及时实施当前下调贷款利率的政策行业观点我们认为房地产行业的市场情绪将逐步改善尤其是随着需求端放松政策的不断深入我们当前对板块所持的评级是跑赢大市我们推荐优质民企龙湖集团00960HK万科企业02202HK和金地集团600383SH同时我们认为中交地产000736SZ以及建发国际01908HK作为较小的央国企将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKALIBABA09988HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKASYMCHEM-HSHARES06821HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKALIBABA09988HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of6