事件：2023年1月3日，中国电力公告称，将以代价人民币5.466亿元收购广西海外（国电投持有55%；中国电力持有40%）持有的79.67%的金紫山风电股份。收购完成后，中国电力持有金紫山风电的股权将由47.09%增加至94.89%。据公告，本次收购将给中国电力带来579兆瓦增量风电容量，而这其中我们估计有约200兆瓦为在建容量。
　　我们对本次收购的理解：由于国电投实际持有广西海外55%股份，我们认为本次收购是国电投支持中国电力转型的又一次资产注入。据我们测算，本次交易体现了约1.1倍PB，我们认为对中国电力股东有利。受中国持续的国企改革推动，国电投预计将持续向上市子公司注入资产，尤其是注入到中国电力（其对国电投电力资产有优先收购权）。我们相信国电投目前仍有60-70吉瓦的未上市可再生能源资产。
　　转型如荼展开：本次宣布的收购距中国电力2022年12月28日公布自成立以来最大的火电资产处置仅过去数日——国电投资产注入和火电资产处置都是中国电力实现绿色转型的关键举措。考虑到公司近期动作，我们认为中国电力目前正在全力追赶转型进度，公司计划到2025年清洁能源装机占比超过90%（截至2022年上半年，公司清洁能源占比50.7%）。
　　维持“买入”，上调目标价至4.25港元。我们认为2023年中国电力转型的能见度将会更高，估值有望得到进一步催化。虽然公司股价自上周以来已上涨超过30%，考虑到公司过去两年的估值水平，我们认为公司股价仍有上行空间。我们上调基于分部估值法得出的目标价至4.25港元（火电：0.6倍2023年PB；新能源：9.2倍2023年PE；水电：12.0倍2023年PE）。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitlePeterShao邵俊樨究CompanyReportChinaPowerInternational02380HK85225095464EquityResearch公司报告中国电力02380HKpetershaogtjascomhk3January2023ToTableSAcquireummaryControllingInterestinJinzishanWindPowerTransformationinFullSwing将收购金紫山风电控股股权转型如荼展开公EventOn3Jan2023CPIDannouncedthatitwillacquire7967equityinterest司TableRankinJinzishanWindPowerJWPfromGuangxiOverseas55heldbySPICandRatingBuy报40heldbyCPIDforaconsiderationofRMB5466mnUponcompletionoftheMaintained告acquisitionCPIDsstakeinJWPwillincreasefrom4709to9489PertheannouncementtheacquisitionwillincreaseCPIDsinstalledwindcapacityby579评级买入维持CompanyReportMWamongwhichwebelievearound200MWarestillunderconstructionOurtakeontheacquisitionGivenGuangxiOverseasiseffectively55heldby6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK425SPICwedeemtheacquisitionasanotherassetinjectionfromSPICtosupportRevisedfrom原目标价HK395CPIDstransformationThedealreflectsaPBofaround11xperourestimatefavourableforCPIDsshareholdersinourviewDrivenbyChinasongoingSOEShareprice股价HK3610告reformSPICisexpectedtocontinueinjectingassetsintolistedsubsidiaries证especiallyintoCPIDwhichhasapreferentialrighttoacquireSPICspowerassets报WebelieveSPICstillhasaround60-70GWofunlistedrenewablesStockperformance券股价表现究TransformationinfullswingTodaysannouncedacquisitioncamejustafew研daysafterCPIDannounceditslargestthermalassetdisposalsinceestablishmentTableQuotePic20change研究on28Dec2022bothassetinjectionfromSPICandthermalassetdisposalare10券keymeasurestosecureCPIDsgreentransformationGiventheserecentmovesResearchReport0报webelieveCPIDisnowinfullswingtocatchupwithitstransformationplanwhich10证envisagestheCompanytohaveover90ofinstalledcapacityincleanenergyby告20Equity2025CPIDscleanenergyaccountedfor507bytheendof1H2230MaintainBuyraiseTPtoHK425Webelievetherewillbemorevisibilityon40CPIDstransformationin2023likelyleadingtofurthervaluationre-rateWhile50CPIDsshareshavesurgedover30sincelastweekwebelievetheupsidehasTabnotbeenfullyrealisedgivenCPIDsvaluationlevelsoverthepasttwoyearsWe6070leIraiseourSTOP-basedTPtoHK42506x2023PBforthermalpower92x2023Jan-22Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22HSICPIDnfo1PEfornewenergy120x2023PEforhydropower事件2023年1月3日中国电力公告称将以代价人民币5466亿元收购广西海外国电投持有55中国电力持有40持有的7967的金紫山风电股份收购完成后中国电力持有金ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y电紫山风电的股权将由4709增加至9489据公告本次收购将给中国电力带来579兆瓦增量股价变动1个月3个月1年风电容量而这其中我们估计有约200兆瓦为在建容量力Abs308191338我们对本次收购的理解由于国电投实际持有广西海外55股份我们认为本次收购是国电投支绝对变动行ReltoHSIndex持中国电力转型的又一次资产注入据我们测算本次交易体现了约11倍PB我们认为对中22922199相对恒指变动业国电力股东有利受中国持续的国企改革推动国电投预计将持续向上市子公司注入资产尤其AvgsharepriceHK292938是注入到中国电力其对国电投电力资产有优先收购权我们相信国电投目前仍有60-70吉瓦平均股价港元ElectricitySector的未上市可再生能源资产SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational转型如荼展开本次宣布的收购距中国电力2022年12月28日公布自成立以来最大的火电资产处置仅过去数日国电投资产注入和火电资产处置都是中国电力实现绿色转型的关键举措考虑到公司近期动作我们认为中国电力目前正在全力追赶转型进度公司计划到2025年清洁能源装机占比超过90截至2022年上半年公司清洁能源占比507维持买入上调目标价至425港元我们认为2023年中国电力转型的能见度将会更高估值有望得到进一步催化虽然公司股价自上周以来已上涨超过30考虑到公司过去两年的估值Tab水平我们认为公司股价仍有上行空间我们上调基于分部估值法得出的目标价至425港元火leI电06倍2023年PB新能源92倍2023年PE水电120倍2023年PEnfo2YTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB中2020A284281708017030816234061001304751国2021A3473451600701412382362709005521142022F4466218650172na17434271000521750电2023F52925351603258909237000900973288力2024F626795492050756059411008015251123TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m123702Majorshareholder大股东SPIC543MarketcapHKm市值HKm446562Freefloat自由流通比率4573monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数000588580FY22NetgearingFY22净负债股东资金233652WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK55002230FY22EstNAVHKFY22每股估值港元425China02380HKPowerInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKFigure-1TargetedproportionsofcleanenergyinFigure-2TargetedrevenuecontributionfromcleanconsolidatedinstalledcapacityCPIDenergyandenergystorage1rCPIDaMthgiRelbaT1009580709070906050508050703670403025603January2023522015501020402021A2023F2025F2030F2021A2023F2025F2030FCleanenergyEnergystorageSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceCPIDGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-3CPIDsgreentransformationisadynamicprocessAssetCoal-firedinjectionsassetfromSPICdisposals2raMthgiRelbaTTransformationsupportCross-PolicyCPIDsgreen709095installedlistingsupportcapacityincleanenergybytransformation202320252030Organicdevelopmentofnewenergy02380HKSourceGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-1Peersvaluation中国电力MarketCapPEfiscalyearPBfiscalyearCompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpriceHKDmn21A22F23F24F21A22F23F24FPeersthermalHuanengPowerIntlInc-H00902HKHKD406117556na115665505060606HuadianPowerIntlCorp-H01071HKHKD33465444na86615307060505SimpleAveragena100645406060605WeightedAveragena104645405060605ChinaPowerInternationalPeershydroSichuanChuantouEnergyCo-A600674CHCNY12226152317415613613117171615GuangxiGuiguanElectric-A600236CHCNY5775148335615115914131nananaGuizhouQianyuanPowerCo-A002039CHCNY151473272761171058520nananaSimpleAverage26914113311923171615WeightedAverage25815114413223171615PeersnewenergyChinaLongyuanPowerGroup-H00916HKHKD1030142784112113917811111009XinyiEnergyHoldingsLtd03868HKHKD2661979115314913211415141413ChinaDatangCorpRenewabl-H01798HKHKD2371723910980685911110908CgnNewEnergyHoldingsCoL01811HKHKD277118868359534711100908SimpleAverage114100867412121009WeightedAverage114110927811111009SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalDatasubtractedasat3Jan2023ReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of4TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKFinancialStatementsandRatios1raMthgiRelbaTTableIncomeStatementIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FYearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalrevenue2842834734446625292562679PPE112955128695155931206422269425Otherincome284514514514514Intangibleassets83538170780374367069Fuelcosts1087617938209942000816019InterestsinassociatesandJVs42334955495549554955DEPN532160937450910911511Prepayments337424892489248924893January2023Staffcosts29433334357342345014Othernon-currentassets1291311874118741187411874Repairsandmaintenance77886796911961525Totalnon-currentassets141827156184183052233176295813Subcontractingcosts0511154938717743Consumables347423536635752Cashcashequivalents13181767110014912201Othergainsandlossesnet54954617617617Inventories6981469146914691469Otheroperatingexpenses21282435281631133477Tradereceivables72868363535963517521Operatingprofit6372460179061189017769Prepayments25624109410941094109Amountsduefromrelatedparties17392535253525352535Financecostsnet28733735381448036594Otherscurrentassets518328334339345ShareofresultsofassociatesandJVs328333174302366Totalcurrentassets1412118570149051629318179Profitbeforetax38265333919738911541Totalassets1559491747541979572494693139922raMthgiRelbaTIncomeTax90136272513672135Profitaftertax2926171319460229406Short-termdebts2121221912342815324378690Borrowingsfromrelatedparties28276109610961096109Non-controllinginterest1217687132925053914Tradeandotherpayables988110905114871166311725Shareholdersprofitloss1708516186535165492Othercurrentliabilities66366611664366546667Totalcurrentliabilities40556455365851977669103191BasicEPS01700070017203250507DilutedEPS01700070017203250507Long-termdebts45359549306321191649124702Borrowingsfromrelatedparties12122855885588558855802380HKOthernon-currentliabilities1212113845139481394813948TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalnon-currentliabilities696037733385717114155147208中国电力Yearend31DecRMBm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalliabilities110159122869144236191824250399Profitbeforetax38265333919738911541DDA532160937450910911511Totalshareholdersequity3339835807371304008744524Workingcapitaladjustments2717375835858151108Minorityinterest1239216078165911755819069Incometaxpaid551121371913612129Totalequity4579051885537215764563593Others378312174302366Cashfromoperatingactivities55021342144091401919450TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosChinaPowerInternationalCapEx16168169603500060000750002020A2021A2022F2023F2024FOthers400155650810691218MarginsCashfrominvestingactivities1576818516344925893173782Operatingmargin224132177225283Netprofitmargin1030572114150Proceedsfromborrowingsnet1201413249206504740058500Dividendpaid127212875425591055ReturnRatiosOthers395564669215382403ROA1901162430Cashfromfinancingactivities1034717608194164530255042ROE51-145088123Cashatbegofyear12391318176711001491LiquidityleverageNetchangesincash80435667391710Totaldebttoequity19972041235630183656Effectofforeignexchanges113000Netgearing19682007233629923621Cashatendofyear13181767110014912201Interestcoverageratiox2111202527SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of4TablePageHeaderChinaPowerInternational02380HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinition1raMthgiRelbaTTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to53January2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport02380HK3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReport中国电力withinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaPowerInternationalThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedReport27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of4