力劲科技（“公司”）大型压铸机业务快速增长，长期增长逻辑坚实。公司2023财年上半年大型压铸机（1,000-5,000t）增速超过40%，毛利率在30-35%左右；超大型压铸机（>6,000t）增速超过50%，毛利率超过40%。当前大型及超大型压铸机营收占压铸机板块整体营收的比例超过70%。我们认为未来随着大型压铸机业务持续保持增长，小型压铸机及注塑机业务对公司的影响将持续降低，公司的毛利率将持续提升。在一体化压铸渗透率很低的情况下，中国新能源汽车行业在未来几年将维持对大型及超大型压铸机强劲的需求，公司长期增长的逻辑坚实。
　　公司传统业务或将跟随经济复苏而复苏，公司短期业绩有望改善。公司传统业务如注塑机、小型压铸机的营收和毛利在2023上半财年经历了较为显著的下滑。但随着中国宏观政策调整，行业资本支出上升，整体下游需求将逐渐改善。注塑机和小型压铸机业务在2023下半财年的营收和毛利或将提升，从而改善公司短期业绩。
　　数控机床业务表现亮眼，未来将拓展新的增长空间。公司数控机床业务2023财年上半年营收为1.5亿港元（+52.8%），经营利润率为11.9%（+17.4个百分点）。公司2022年9月发布MCG5系列五轴动柱式龙门加工中心，对压铸件的加工工艺进行优化升级。公司的五轴龙门加工中心作为超大型压铸机的配套设备，也将受益于一体化压铸方案渗透率的提升，与超大型压铸机一起保持快速增长。
　　投资建议：我们认为力劲科技长期增长逻辑坚实，短期业绩有望持续改善，维持公司评级为“买入”，维持目标价为11.90港元。我们预测2023-2025财年EPS为0.437港元、0.596港元、0.773港元。我们的目标价对应27.3倍/ 20.0倍/ 15.4倍的2023-2025财年市盈率。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteLKTech00558HKAlexBai白舸EquityResearch85225097202快讯力劲科技00558HKgebaigtjascomhk5January2023TableSummaryCommentsonSoaringStockPriceLargeDie-CastingMachineBusinessMaintainedRapidGrowthTraditionalBusinesstoRecover快股价大涨点评大型压铸机业务保持快速增长传统业务有望复苏讯FlashNoteThelargedie-castingmachinebusinessofLKTechnologyLKTechortheCompanymaintainedrapidgrowthlong-termgrowthlogicissolidIn1HFY23thegrowthrateoflargedie-castingmachines1000t-5000texceeded40andthemarginalratiowasaround30-35thegrowthrateofsuper-largedie-castingmachines6000texceeded50andthemarginalratioexceeded40andrevenuefromlargeandsuper-largedie-castingmachinesaccountedformorethan70ofrevenueofthedie-castingmachinebusinessWebelievethatastheCompanyslargedie-castingmachinebusinesswillcontinuetogrowinthefuturetheimpactfromsmalldie-castingmachinebusinessandinjectionmoldingmachinebusinessontheCompanywillcontinuetodecreaseweexpecttheCompanysgrossprofitmargintocontinuetoimproveWiththeextremelylowpenetrationrateofsingle-piecedie-castingsolutionChinasnewenergyvehicleindustrywillmaintainstrongdemandforlargeandsuper-largedie-castingmachinesinthenextfewyearstheCompanyslong-termgrowthlogicissolid证券TheCompanystraditionalbusinessmayrecoveralongsideeconomicrecoveryandtheCompanys研short-termperformanceisexpectedtoimproveRevenueandgrossprofitoftheCompanystraditionalbusinesses告suchasinjectionmoldingmachinesandsmalldie-castingmachinesexperiencedsignificantdeclinein1HFY23究报报HoweverwithadjustmentsinChinasmacropolicyandtheincreaseofcapitalexpenditureofthemanufacturingindustryoveralldownstreamdemandwillgraduallyimproveRevenueandgrossprofitoftheinjectionmolding告究machinebusinessandsmalldie-castingmachinebusinessin2HFY23mayincreaseimprovingtheCompanysEquityResearchReport研short-termperformanceTable券Info1PerformanceoftheCNCmachinetoolbusinesshasbeenoutstandingandwillexpandintonewgrowth证spaceTheCompanysCNCmachinebusinessrevenuein1HFY23wasHK150million528andoperatingprofitmarginwas119174pptsInSeptembertheCompanyreleasedtheMCG5five-axisgantrymachinetooptimizedie-castingpartsprocessingTheCompanysfive-axisgantrymachinessupportingequipmentfor机械super-largedie-castingmachineswillalsobenefitfromtheincreaseinthepenetrationrateofsingle-piecedie-casting行solutionsandwillmaintainrapidgrowthtogetherwithsuper-largedie-castingmachines业InvestmentsuggestionWebelievethatthelong-termgrowthlogicofLKTechissolidandshort-termperformanceMachinerySectoristoimproveWemaintaintheCompanysratingasBuyandmaintainTPofHK1190WeforecastearningspershareinFY23FY24FY25tobeHK0437HK0596andHK0773respectivelyOurTPrepresents273x200x154xFY23-FY25PEratioTableInfo2力劲科技LKTechLKHK00558SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3TablePageHeaderLKTech00558HK力劲科技公司大型压铸机业务快速增长长期增长逻辑坚实公司2023财年上半年大型压铸机1000-5000t增速超过40毛利率在30-35左右超大型压铸机6000t增速超过50毛利率超过40当前大型及超大型1ra压铸机营收占压铸机板块整体MthgiRelbaT营收的比例超过70我们认为未来随着大型压铸机业务持续保持增长小型压铸机及注塑机业务对公司的影响将持续降低公司的毛利率将持续提升在一体化压铸渗透率很低的情况下中国新能源汽车行业在未来几年将维持对大型及超大型压铸机强劲的需求公司长期增长的逻辑坚实公司传统业务或将跟随经济复苏而复苏公司短期业绩有望改善公司传统业务如注塑机小型压铸机的营收和毛利在2023上半财年经历了较为显著的下滑但随着中国宏观政策调整行业资本支出上升整体下游需求将逐渐改善注塑机和小型压铸机业务在20235January2023下半财年的营收和毛利或将提升从而改善公司短期业绩数控机床业务表现亮眼未来将拓展新的增长空间公司数控机床业务2023财年上半年营收为15亿港元528经营利润率为119174个百分点公司2022年9月发布MCG5系列五轴动柱式龙门加工中心对压铸件的加工工艺进行优化升级公司的五轴龙门加工中心作为超大型压铸机的配套设备也将受益于一体化压铸方案渗透率的提升与超大型压铸机一起保持快速增长投资建议我们认为力劲科技长期增长逻辑坚实短期业绩有望持续改善维持公司评级为买入维持目标价为1190港元我们预测2023-2025财年EPS为0437港元0596港元0773港元我们的目标价对应273倍200倍154倍的2023-2025财年市盈率2raMthgiRelbaT00558HK力劲科技LKTechFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of3TablePageHeaderLKTech00558HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisneutral5January2023Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReport00558HKwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies力劲科技LKTechDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of3