发生了什么？ 2022年12月30日，中国证监会发布公告称，正在推进对富途控股有限公司（FUTUUS，“富途”）和Up fintechHolding Ltd.（TIGRUS，“老虎”）的非法跨境股票交易业务的整治工作。
　　为什么会发生？近年来，富途和老虎为中国大陆客户提供跨境股票交易业务，没有任何相关的大陆牌照，只有海外牌照。2021年10月，富途和老虎的监管风险开始浮出水面，当时《人民日报》质疑这两家公司对跨境股票交易中的中国投资者个人数据的处理问题，而中国一位高级央行官员则警告称，未在中国获得许可的在线券商属于非法经营。
　　整改将如何推进？证监会将按照“有效遏制增量，有序化解存量”的思路推进整改。它要求富途和老虎停止接受新的境内投资者作为客户或为他们开设账户。而现有大陆客户可继续在平台交易，但是增量资金须符合外汇管理条例。根据外汇管理条例，境内个人每年可购汇等值5万美元用于境外旅游等经常项目支付，但不得用于购置房地产和股票等资本项目投资。（此类投资应通过QDII或其他受监管的渠道进行）。
　　会有什么影响？我们预计跨境经纪业务的不利因素不仅来自新增大陆客户的禁止，也来自大陆投资者现有资金的潜在流出。我们预计证监会提到的“有序化解存量”的举措会逐步展开，目前境内客户仍可以交易的原因是监管不想造成恐慌。因此，我们预计未来将出台更多监管措施，并导致境内投资者存量资金的外流。此外，我们预计监管风险的出现将导致境内投资者的资金安全意识增强，进而引发存量资金流出。
　　影响会有多大？我们预计对老虎的不利影响将大于对富途的影响，因为：
　　与富途相比，老虎证券对中国大陆客户的收入敞口更大。大陆客户占老虎现有客户的40%。由于他们的人均资产高于平均，我们估计内地客户将产生超过50%的总收入，而富途2022年上半年约44%的收入来自其内地客户。
　　老虎在盈亏平衡线上挣扎，对收入下降的风险抵御能力更弱，而富途保持健康的净利率。2022年1-3季度，老虎录得净亏损，净亏损率为2%。我们预计存量资金的潜在流出将拖累老虎陷入持续亏损的境地，并对其未来的扩张和管理构成压力。2022年1-3季度，在股市低迷的背景下，富途仍录得37%左右的健康净利率。存量资金的潜在流出将拖累收入并削弱其经营杠杆，但我们预计富途仍将能够盈利，为未来的扩张和发展留有余地。
　　老虎还需要在研发等费用方面投入才能赶上富途，因为富途搭建了更好的交易平台，且客户质量更好。然而，存量资金流出带来的持续亏损可能会限制老虎未来的支出，从而限制其未来的发展。
　　乐观情况-境内投资者的现有资金不受影响：在这种情况下，老虎和富途受到的影响微乎其微，因为只有来自新大陆客户的收入受到影响。2021年10月出现监管风险后，老虎和富途将重心转向离岸市场。2022年，老虎和富途新增客户中大陆客户仅占10%-20%。因此，老虎和富途的收入增长将被拖低个位点数。
　　基准情况-境内投资者现有资金的三分之一流出：在这种情况下，我们预计老虎的收入将下降17%以上，富途的收入将下降14%左右。就净利润而言，我们预计老虎将持续录得净亏损，因为它目前仍在努力实现盈利，但仍需要维持一定的支出以保持其在线交易平台的竞争力。我们预计富途的净利润将由于经营杠杆减弱而下降超过14%，因其研发费用占其支出的40%左右，这对其竞争力至关重要，因此不太可能大幅削减。
　　悲观情况-境内投资者现有资金80%流出：在这种情况下，我们预计老虎的收入将下降40%以上，富途的收入将下降35%左右。在盈利方面，我们预计老虎将难以维持其运营，因为巨额净亏损将限制其未来支出并使其更难赶上富途。对于富途，我们预计其仍将能够录得盈利，因为其保持的37%左右的健康净利率能够吸收这种冲击。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNoteNon-BankSectorFinanceFrancoLi李炜快讯非银金融行业85225097204francoligtjascomhk3January2023TableMainInfoWeighingMoreonTigerThanonFutuRegulatoryMeasuretoBringUncertaintytoFundsofOnshoreClients快对老虎证券的不利影响大于对富途证券的影响监管举措给境内客户资金带来不确定性讯WhatHappenedOn30December2022theChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionCSRCannouncedthatitFlashNoteFlashispushingforwardtherectificationoftheillegalcross-borderstocktradingbusinessofFutuHoldingsLtdFUTUUSFutuandUpfintechHoldingLtdTIGRUSTigerWhyDidThisHappenFutuandTigerhavebeenoperatingtheircross-borderstocktradingbusinessesfortheirmainlandChineseclientsforyearswithoutanyrelatedonshorelicensebutonlyoffshorelicensesTheregulatoryrisksaroundFutuandTigersurfacedinOctober2021whenPeoplesDailynewspaperquestionedhowthetwocompanieshandledChineseinvestorspersonaldataincross-borderstocktradesandaseniorChinesecentralbankerwarnedthatonlinebrokeragesnotlicensedinChinawereoperatingillegallyHowwilltherectificationbepushedforwardCSRCwillpushforwardthecorrectivemeasuresaccordingtotheideaofEffectivelycurbingtheadditionsandorderlyresolvingtheexistingItaskedFutuandTigertostoptaking证newonshoreinvestorsascustomersoropeningnewaccountsforthemExistingonshoreclientscancontinueto告券tradeontheplatformswithoutaddingnewfundsthatarenon-compliantwiththeregulationsofforeignexchange研报administrationAccordingtotheregulationsofforeignexchangeadministrationeverydomesticindividualisallowedtopurchaseforeignexchangeequivalentto50000dollarsperyearforthepaymentundercurrentaccount究究suchasoverseastravelsbutnotforinvestmentsundercapitalaccountsuchasbuyingrealestateandstocksResearchReport报研suchinvestmentsshouldbedoneviaQDIIorotherregulatedchannels告券EquityWhatwillbetheimpactWeexpectthattheheadwindsforcross-borderbrokerageswillnotonlycome证fromthebanofnewonshoreclientadditionsbutalsofromthelikelyoutflowsofexistingfundsofonshoreinvestorsWeexpecttheactionoforderlyresolvingtheexistingmentionedbyCSRCwillbeconductedgraduallyandthatthereasonwhycurrentonshoreclientsarestillallowedtotradeisthattheregulatordoesnotwanttocauseanypanicThereforeweexpectadditionalregulatorymeasurestobeannouncedinthefutureandtocauseoutflowsofexistingfundsofonshoreinvestorsInadditionweexpectthattheregulatoryrisksthathaveemergedwillleadtoincreasingawarenessoffundsafetyamongonshoreinvestorstriggeringoutflowsofexistingTfundsabHowbigwilltheimpactbeWeexpecttheadverseimpacttobebiggeronTigerthanonFutubecause非银lTigerhasabiggerrevenueexposuretomainlandChineseclientsthanFutuMainlandclientsaccountfor金e40oftigersexistingclientsAstheirassetspercapitawerehigherthantheaverageweestimatemainland融clientstogeneratemorethan50oftotalrevenuewhilearound44ofFutusrevenuecamefromitsmainland行clientsin1H22L业SectorBankFinance-eTigerisstrugglingtobreakevenandismorevulnerabletoadropinrevenuewhileFutumaintainshealthyNonnetprofitmarginsIn1-3Q22Tigerrecordednetlosswithnetlossmarginof2WeexpectthepotentialfoutflowsofexistingfundswilldragTigerintoconsistentlosssituationandputpressureonitsfutureexpansionandtmanagementIn1-3Q22Futustillrecordedahealthynetprofitmarginofaround37againstthebackdropofMsluggishstockmarketThepotentialoutflowsofexistingfundswilldragdownrevenueandweakenitsoperatingaleveragebutweexpectthatFutuwillstillbeabletomakeprofitgivingleewaytofutureexpansionandrdevelopmentgTigerstillneedstospendmoneyontheexpensesidesuchasresearchanddevelopmenttocatchupiwithFutugiventhatFutuhasbuiltabettertradingplatformandhasbettercustomerqualityHoweverpotentialconsistentlossduetotheoutflowsofexistingfundsislikelytoconstrainTigersfuturespendingandthuslimititsnfuturedevelopmentSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3Seethelastpagefo识增强未来将出台更多监管措施并导致境内投资者存量资金预计证监会提到的有序化解存量的举措会逐步展开目前境内客户仍可以交易的原因是监管不想造成恐慌因此我们预计会有什么影响QDII个人每年可购汇等值作为客户或为他们开设账户整改将如何推进理问题年为什么会Holding发生了什么37toaroundabsorbshocksuchtablebewillstillitthatexpectweFutuForFutuwithfordropmorethan40andFutuCaseBearitsexpenseswhichofisessentialtocompetitivenessitsandbeisunlikelythuscuttosubstantiallythan14duetoweakeningoperatingleverageresearchasanddevelopmentexpenseaccountsforaroundcurrentlbreakeventostrugglingspendingtostillisitasconsistentlylossnetrecorddroptoBaseCasesingle10sincemarketoffshoreminimalasonlyrevenuecomingfromnewonshoreclientsisaffectedTigerandFutuhaveswitchedtheirfocustoB仍将能够录得盈利因为其保持在悲观情况争力至关重要因此不太可能大幅削减交易平台的竞争力我们预计富途的净利润将左右就基准情况因此老虎和富途的收入增长将被拖低个位点到影响乐观情况的持续亏损可能会限制老虎未来的支出从而限制其未来的发展老虎计富途仍将能够盈利为未来的扩张和发展留有余地季度在股市低迷的背景下富途仍录得亏损率为老虎在盈亏平衡估计内地客户将产生超过与富途相比老虎证券对中国大陆客户的收入敞口更大影响会有多大rdisclaimerullCaseull盈利10Tigertosustainitsoperationsaslargenetlosswillconstrainitsfuturespendingandmakeithardertocatchup还需要在研发等费用方面-或其他受监管的渠道进行月20ofnewclientadditionsTigerofandThusFuturevenuegrowthofTigerandFutuwillbedraggeddown-方面我们预计老虎将难以维持其运营因为巨额净亏损将限制其未来支出并使其更难赶上富途对于富途我们预计其digitpoints2021Ltdby进而而净利润---发生境内投资者现有资金境内投资者现有资金的三分之一流出境内投资者的现有资金不受影响2富途和老虎的监管风险中国一位高级央行-morethan17andFutuand17thanmore--我们预计存量资金的潜在流出将拖累老虎陷入持续亏损的境地并对其未来的扩张和管理构成压力年existingfundsofonshoreinvestorsarenotaffectednotareinvestorsonshoreoffundsexisting引发存量资金流出maintainmaintaintheTIGRone80ofexistingfundsofonshoreinvestorsflowoutflowinvestorsonshoreoffundsexistingof802022而言我们预计线10我们预计对老虎的不利影响将大于对富途的影响我们预计近上挣扎-月出现监管风险后老虎证监会将按照有效遏制年来富途和老虎为中国大陆客户thirdofexistingfunds年US512万美元用于境外旅游等经常项目支付但不得用于购置房地产老虎50月跨境经纪业务的不利因素不仅来自新增regulatoryriskemergedinOctober2021In2022mainlandclientsaccountforonlyonlyforaccountclientsmainland2022In2021Octoberinemergedriskregulatory对competitivenessofitsonlinetradingplatformWeexpectFutu30官员则收入下降而投入才能的总收入而富途80的老虎现有日中国证监会发布公告称正在推进对富途控股有限公司开始浮出水面ssrevenue37流出警告称未在中国获得许可的在线券商属于非法经营将持续录得净亏损因为它目前仍在努力实现大陆的非法跨境股票交易业务的整治的风险抵御能力更弱赶上富途左右的健康净利率P客户可继续在平台交易37srevenuetodroparound14IntermsofbottomlineweexpectTigertoTigerexpectwelinebottomoftermsIn14arounddroptorevenues在这种情况下我们预计老虎的收入将下降和在这种情况下增量富途将重心转向离岸市场由于经营杠杆减弱而数todroparound35Intermsofbottomlineweexpectthat左右的健康净利率存量资金的潜在流出将拖累收入并削弱其经营杠杆但我们预当时人民日报质疑这两家公司ofonshoreinvestorsflowout在这种情况下我们预计老虎的收入将下降2022因为有序化解存量的思路推进整改它要求富途和老虎停止接受新的境内投资者提供年上半年的富途搭建了更好的交易平台大陆客户占老虎现有客户的外流此外我们预计监管风险的出现将导致境内投资者的资金安全意能够跨境股票交易业务而富途保持健康的净利率老虎orecordprofitasitmaintainsahealthynetprofitmarginofmarginprofitnethealthyamaintainsitasprofitrecordo吸收这种冲击约和大陆下降但是增量资金须符合外汇管理条例44富途因为工作客户超过的收入来自其内地客户受到的影响微乎其微因为只有来自新2022的禁止14TablePageHeader年老虎InthisthisIncasetheimpactonTigerandFutuis没有任何相关的InthiscaseweexpectTigerexpectwecasethisn因盈利对也其I且和跨境股票交易中的中国投资者个人数据和40来自nnthiscasebttlnesoanancertainmaintaintoneedsstillbuty40研发费用占其支出的但仍需要维持一定的支出以保持其在线客户质量更好富途新增客户中大陆客户仅占股票2022由于他们的人均资产高于平均我们大陆以上富途的收入将下降等资本项目投资FUTU17投资者现有资金年大陆1以上富途的收入将下降snetprofittodrop-w3US牌照只有eeexpectTiger根据外汇管理季度富途和然而存量资金流出带来Non老虎40-akiacSectorFinanceBank大陆的海外此类投资应通过录得净亏损净左右这对其竞潜在ititwillbehardsrevenuetorevenues客户的收入受2牌照条例35srevenue010流出Up22by境内左右fintech年-more20PagePage402021的处14我们1-32ofof3n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNoteNon-BankFinanceSector非银金融行业3January2023SeeWebsitewwwgtjacomhkTel852250927FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongResearchThisReportnotisdirectedorintendedatdistributionfortoorbyanyusepersonorentitywhoaiscitizenorThouAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwdReportResearchThisDISCLAIMERinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulatiorlawsubjectGuotaiJunanandapplicablegroupitscompaniesanytoregistrationtoorlicensingrequirementcontrarywithinsucbewoulduseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyinunpredicandwherenecessaryconsultinherentlytheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionwithconditionseconomicandpoliticalobjecinvestmentfuturethecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintythesosituationmutableofassumptionsthefromderivedforecastsandestimatesforwasomecontainmayReportResearchThishereindataandinformationtheofcompletenessandaccuracytheguaranteenotbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebyassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunandealpersonsproprietarilyreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunana654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSTabledisclosureRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkTableSectorRatingDefinitionSectorRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkCompanythTableCompanyRatingDefinition2023eUnderperformNeutralOutperformSellReduceNeutralAccumulateBuylasghbesteffortghbestbeenhasensuremadetoaccuracytheoftheinformationanddatacontainedthisinResearchReportGuotaiJunReportThereisGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedReportHKPINGANINSURANCEGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofCITICResearchReportwithinprecedingthe12monthsGuotaiJunananditsgroupmorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport01983BANKHKLUZHOU00512HEALTHCAREHKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiANDandgroupitsJunanholdnotcompaniesequalordotoPHARMACEUTICALGRANDCHINAforExceptTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdohavenotanyfinancialinterestsrelationintotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuertGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedpagRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionefoersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferordifferreportmaythisexpressedinopinionscompaniesAnyofprofessionalGuotaiJunanothergroupandexecutivesofersr-18Fax85225099118disclaimerdisclaimerHongKongHangSengIndexHongKongHangSengIndex跑输大市中性跑赢大市卖出减持中性收集买入nooesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseacquiretoofferorinvitationanconstitutenotoesofficeroforRelativePerformanceorRelativePerformanceorRelativePerformance5RelativePerformanceortRelativePerformance15ortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortcompanieshadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithFUTUHOLDINGSLTDFUTUUSmentionedinthis-DefinitionDefinitionanyHSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCEtheththeheheheheheeissuefundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamental-7793rsmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunanandgroupitscompaniesNASDAQCompositeIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexPoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlooknditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusiisisisis--515---5555etcofthesectorofthesectorofthesectorofthecompanyorsectoroftheofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorsectortotoforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvesttoto15an5-515companyorsectorindividualisisisfavorableunneutralservingasfavorablementionedinthisResearchReportorsubscribeforsecuritiesbsecuritiesforsubscribeorisisisisfavorableisfavorable-TablePageHeaderHSHARES02628HKmentionedinthisResearchanofficerofanyununneutralnessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchfavorablefavorablehjurisdictionissuersmentionedinthisResearchyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesJunanGuotaiySECtivesanditsrelatedrisksrelateditsandtivesNonKFET02191REITHKSF-residento-HSHARES06030akiacSectorFinanceBankrittenformbysalesonorwhichwouldwhichoronPagePageportforflocatedrdalandtableandoes-looking3ofof3n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNoteNon-BankFinanceSector非银金融行业3January2023