允许地方政府调整首套住房贷款利率，使其成为常态化机制。2023年1月5日，中国人民银行以及银保监会联合发布通知，决定建立首套住房贷款利率政策动态调整机制。根据该政策，不同城市根据当地住房销售价格的动态变化，可以采用不同的最低住房贷款利率。具体来说，新建商品住房平均销售价格环比和同比连续三个月均下降的城市，可阶段性维持、下调或取消当地首套房贷款利率政策下限。至于其他城市，则仍将维持利率下限为LPR减20个基点，即4.1%。
　　这不是一个新的政策，而是2022年9月份对于房贷利率放松政策的延续。2022年9月29日，中国人民银行以及银保监会就宣布了相同的政策，即允许在2022年6月至8月连续出现三个月住房售价下行的城市，自行决定和调整当地最低首套房贷款利率。而阶段性的有效期至2022年年底。所以此次的贷款利率放松，我们认为只是相同政策的延续。但我们同时也认为这是一个来自监管部门较强的信号，即对于地产需求端的支持将在2023年成为常态化的表现。这也将有助于持续改善和修复市场信心。
　　一些重点二线城市，比如天津、厦门、福州、郑州以及武汉可以自行调节贷款利率下限。我们根据国家统计局70城新建住房价格的数据，参考了2022年9月至11月的房价变化，因房价连续下滑而目前允许下调住房贷款利率的城市有38个。这些城市主要是低线城市。而天津、厦门、福州、郑州以及武汉则是其中比较重要的二线城市，可以及时实施当前下调贷款利率的政策。
　　行业观点：我们认为房地产行业的市场情绪将逐步改善，尤其是随着需求端放松政策的不断深入。我们当前对板块所持的评级是“跑赢大市”。我们推荐优质民企龙湖集团（00960 HK）、万科企业（02202 HK）和金地集团（600383 SH）。同时我们认为中交地产（000736 SZ）以及建发国际（01908 HK）作为较小的央国企，将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNotePropertySectorChunliZhan詹春立快讯房地产行业85225097745jameszhangtjascomhk6January2023TableMainInfoCommentsonDynamicAdjustmentofMortgageInterestRateDemand-SidePolicySupportWillContinuetoRepair快Confidence讯动态调整房贷利率点评需求端支持政策将持续修复信心FlashNoteFlashAllowslocalgovernmentstoadjustfirst-homeloaninterestratesonamorepermanentbasisOn5Jan2023thePeoplesBankofChinaPBoCandtheChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionCBIRCjointlyannouncedtoestablishadynamicadjustmentmechanismonmortgageratesforfirst-timehomebuyersAccordingtothepolicythelowestmortgageratecanbedifferentamongdifferentcitiesbasedondynamicchangesoflocalhousingpricesTobespecificforthosecitieswithASPofnewhomesfallingmonth-on-monthandyear-on-yearforthreeconsecutivemonthsthelocalgovernmentscandecidetolowerormaintainorcanceltheflooronmortgageratesForothercitiestheflooronthemortgageratewillbemaintainedatLPR-20bps41ThisisnotanewpolicybutanextensionofthesamemortgagerateeaseinSep2022On29Sep2022thePBoCandCBIRCalreadyannouncedthesamepolicyallowingcitiestoadjustthelowestmortgageratesif证housingpricesrecordedcontinuousfallduringJun-Aug2022Andtheeffectiveperiodwilllastuntiltheendof告2022SothistimewebelieveitisonlyanextensionofthesamepolicyHoweverwebelievethisisastrongsignal券fromthetopregulatorthatdemand-sidesupportforthepropertysectorwillbeanormalizedtrendin2023Thiswill研报helptocontinuouslyrepairmarketconfidence究究Somekeytier-2citiessuchasTianjinXiamenFuzhouZhengzhouandWuhanmaylowermortgageResearchReport报研ratesAccordingtothe70-cityASPdatafromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsduringSep2022-Nov2022there告券aretotal38citiesthatcanlowermortgageratesduetodeclininghousingASPMostofthesecitiesarelower-tierEquitycitiesTianjinXiamenFuzhouZhengzhouandWuhanarethekeytier-2citieswhichcanimplementthenew证policyimmediatelySectorviewWebelievethatmarketsentimentonthepropertysectorwillgraduallyimproveasdemand-sidesupportpoliciesdeepenOurcurrentinvestmentratingonthesectorisOutperformWerecommendLongfor00960HKVanke-H2202HKandGemdale600383SHasqualitynamesamongprivatedevelopersWeTbelievethatCCCGRealEstate000736SZandCDInternational01908HKwillbebeneficiariessincesmallerSOEsmayseemorestrengthduetofinancialeasingaTable1Citiesthatcanlowerthemortgageratesb房Sep2022Oct2022Nov2022l地CityMoM1285YoYMoM1694YoYMoM1716YoYe产天津Tianjin-06-40-03-41-02-43行石家庄Shijiazhuang-02-32-07-41-03-44业L太原Taiyuan-07-49-04-47-06-45PropertySectore沈阳Shenyang-07-51-06-48-03-45f大连Dalian-05-49-12-46-05-37长春Changchun-08-35-07-31-07-23t哈尔滨Harbin-09-80-06-78-08-75M福州Fuzhou-03-20-05-21-07-18a厦门Xiamen-02-36-07-39-03-30r郑州Zhengzhou-04-36-05-38-03-38g武汉Wuhan-02-58-06-64-09-61i南宁Nanning-06-35-10-30-06-25n兰州Lanzhou-01-55-04-58-09-55唐山Tangshan-07-13-02-08-04-14SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3SeethelastpagSourceNBS北海桂林惠州湛江韶关常德岳阳襄阳宜昌平顶山洛阳济宁九江蚌埠金华温州扬州徐州无锡牡丹江吉林锦州丹东秦皇岛efo布了相同的政策这不是一个新的政策而是贷款利率政策下限至于其他城市则仍将维持利率下限为贷款利率具体来说新建商品住房平均销售价格环比和同比连续三个月均下降的城市可阶段性维持下调或取消当地首套房建立首套住房贷款利率政策动态调整机制根据该政策不同城市根据当地住房销售价格的动态变化可以采用不同的最低住房允许地方政府调整首套住房贷款利率使其成为常态化机制中交地产行业观点是低线城市而的数据参考了一些重点二线城市管部门而阶段性的有效期至rdisclaimerWenzhouWuxiBeihaiZhanjiangShaoguanYueyangYichangJiningJiujiangBengbuJinhuaYangzhouJilinJinzhouGuilinHuizhouChangdeXiangyangLuoyangXuzhouDandong跑赢大市PingdingshanMudanjiangQinhuangdaoGuotaiJunanJunanGuotai较强的信号即对于地产需求端的支持将在000736我们我们推荐优质民企天津认为房地产行业的市场情绪将逐步改善尤其是随着2022即允许在比如InternationalSZ2022年以及建发国际厦门天津9年年底所以此次的贷款利率放松我们认为只是相同政策的延续但我们同时也认为这是一个来自监月至20222022福州厦门11年年龙湖集团月的房价变化6郑州以及武汉则是其中比较重要的二线城市9月至福州月份对于房贷利率放松政策的延续P01908------------------------0408020507030405020204110306050802050310050201038郑州以及武汉可以自行调节贷款利率下限月连续出现三个月住房售价下行的城市自行决定和调整当地最低首套房贷款利率00960HK因房价连续下滑而目前允许下调住房贷款利率的城市有2023作为较小的央国企将在当前融资宽松环境下看到更多优势HK年成为常态化的表现这也将有助于-106-----------------------3824883557805351295049312819583911123333334963LPR万科企业2023减年20需求端放松政策1个基点即月02202------------------------50307060305080109030706040106070405081103090107072022TablePageHeader日中国人民银行以及银保监会联合发布通知决定HK可以年419和的不断深入月及时金地集团我们根据国家统计局29-107-----------------------3521873056745451304842322517514408122932365064实施当前下调贷款利率日持续中国人民银行以及银保监会就宣改善和修复市场信心600383我们当前对板块所持的评级是------------------------0403090404070207020401010206090501040106030507SH380670同时我们认为个这些城市主要城新建住房价格的政策rprySectorProperty-103-----------------------3920883757735545244037312613444405042332244865PagePage2ofof3n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNotePropertySector房地产行业6January2023SeeWebsiteTel852250927FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongResearchThisReportnotisdirectedorintendedatdistributionfortoorbyanyusepersonorentitywhoaiscitizenorThougheffortbesthasAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwdReportResearchThisDISCLAIMERsubjectGuotaiJunanandgroupitscompaniesanytoregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionaninandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionritsandobjectivesinvestmentthecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintysosituationmutableestimatforwardsomecontainmayReportResearchThishereindataandinformationtheofcompletenes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