港股已进入新一轮反弹，汽车行业边际修复已开启。我们对市场的看法逐步乐观，并再次强调行业2022年第四季度悲观情绪已被市场反映。2022年疫情管控对下游消费造成冲击，叠加悲观销量预期和激烈竞争格局等因素，导致汽车指数落后于恒指。进入后疫情时代，此前被杀估值的汽车板块也进入边际修复阶段。随着市场进一步回暖，叠加需求和政策端等行业利好因素出现的预期，汽车板块机会仍在于整车，个别零部件企业也将受益。
　　后疫情时代，销量存在超预期可能。我们认为后疫情时代经济复苏会带动汽车终端销量增长，一是来自国内市场销售回暖，二是来自出口业务增长。同时，即使部分汽车相关政策已到期，市场也不必过分悲观。考虑到汽车行业在国内经济的重要地位，以及国家在促进疫情后消费复苏，我们认为未来会出台新的针对汽车行业的相应扶持政策来刺激消费。
　　行业竞争进一步加剧，有望加快新能源汽车的接受度提升和渗透率增长。特斯拉再次大幅降价给同行竞争车型造成压力，尤其是在定价策略上。这可能直接引致同行其他车企定价策略时点被动转变。整体而言，我们定性此次特斯拉降价策略为偏中性，虽然可能会加速国内汽车行业恶性竞争，但也有助于推动新能源汽车的接受度提升和渗透率增长。
　　多强格局已形成，机会仍在整车。整车板块，我们推荐吉利汽车（00175 HK）、长城汽车-H（02333 HK）和理想汽车-W（02015 HK）；零部件板块，我们推荐耐世特（01316HK）。
　　风险提示：1）行业竞争加剧；2）销量和政策端不及预期。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportAutomobilesSectorIvanWu吴凱翔行业报告汽车行业85225092649ivanwugtjascomhk11January2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateInthePost-PandemicEraAutoIndustry行CompetitionHasIntensifiedAndMarginalRepairHasBegun双周报后疫情时代下汽车行业竞争加剧边际修复已开启业H-shareshaveenteredanewroundofreboundandmarginalrepairofthe报autoindustryhasbegunOurviewonthemarkethasgraduallybecomeRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformoptimisticandwereiteratethatthepessimismoftheindustryin4Q22hasbeenMaintained告ReportSectorreflectedbythemarketAnti-epidemiccontrolmeasuresin2022hadanimpactondownstreamconsumptioncoupledwithfactorssuchaspessimisticsales评级跑赢大市维持expectationsandfiercecompetitioncausingtheautoindextolagbehindtheHSIEnteringthepost-pandemiceratheautosectorwhichwaswithpremium2valuationbeforehasalsoenteredastageofmarginalrepairWiththefurtherHK-listedOEMsandHSIperformancerecoveryofthemarketandtheexpectationoffavourablefactorsintheindustry港股上市整车企业和恒生指数表现suchasinthedemandandpolicysideautosectoropportunitieslieinOEMsandsomecomponentscompanieswillalsobenefit100Inthepost-pandemicerasalesmayexceedexpectationsWebelievethatthe-10economicrecoveryinthepost-pandemicerawilldrivegrowthofautofinalsales-20comingfrom1therecoveryofdomesticmarketsalesand2growthofPVexport-30businessMeanwhileevenifsomeauto-relatedpolicieshaveexpiredthemarket-40证neednotbeoverlypessimisticConsideringtheimportantpositionoftheauto-50告industryinthedomesticeconomyandthecountryseffortstopromotetherecovery-60券ofconsumptionafterthelocalCovid-19epidemicwebelievethatnew-70研报correspondingsupportpoliciesfortheautoindustrywillbeintroducedinthefuturetostimulateconsumption究究ResearchReportIndustrycompetitionisfurtherintensifiedwhichisexpectedtoaccelerateHengSengIndexHK-listedMainAutoOEMs报研acceptanceandpenetrationgrowthofNEVsTeslassharppricecutsagainSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational告haveputpressureoncompetingmodelsespeciallyintermsofpricingstrategies券EquitySuchstrategiesmaydirectlyleadtopassivechangesinthetimingofpricingHKmainOEMsandHSIperformance证strategiesofothervehiclecompaniesintheautoindustryOverallwecharacterizeTeslaspricecutstrategyasneutralAlthoughitmayacceleratevicious港股主要整车企业和恒生指数表现competitioninthedomesticautoindustryitwillalsohelppromoteacceptanceand60penetrationgrowthofNEVs40Alandscapeofseveralmajorpowershasbeenformedandthe20opportunityisstillinOEMsFortheOEMsectorwerecommendGeely0TAuto00175HKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015-20HKforthecomponentssectorwerecommendNexteer01316HK-40a-60Riskwarning1Increasingindustrycompetition2salesandpoliciesmayb-80fallshortofexpectations汽l-100港股已进入新一轮反弹汽车行业边际修复已开启我们对市场的看法逐步乐观并再次2022162022362022562022762022962022116202316车e强调行业2022年第四季度悲观情绪已被市场反映2022年疫情管控对下游消费造成冲击HSI0017500489011140195802238行023330380809866098680201509863叠加悲观销量预期和激烈竞争格局等因素导致汽车指数落后于恒指进入后疫情时代业此前被杀估值的汽车板块也进入边际修复阶段随着市场进一步回暖叠加需求和政策端SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalL等行业利好因素出现的预期汽车板块机会仍在于整车个别零部件企业也将受益eAutomobilesSector后疫情时代销量存在超预期可能我们认为后疫情时代经济复苏会带动汽车终端销量增f长一是来自国内市场销售回暖二是来自出口业务增长同时即使部分汽车相关政策已到期市场也不必过分悲观考虑到汽车行业在国内经济的重要地位以及国家在促进t疫情后消费复苏我们认为未来会出台新的针对汽车行业的相应扶持政策来刺激消费M行业竞争进一步加剧有望加快新能源汽车的接受度提升和渗透率增长特斯拉再次大幅a降价给同行竞争车型造成压力尤其是在定价策略上这可能直接引致同行其他车企定价策略时点被动转变整体而言我们定性此次特斯拉降价策略为偏中性虽然可能会加速r国内汽车行业恶性竞争但也有助于推动新能源汽车的接受度提升和渗透率增长g多强格局已形成机会仍在整车整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HK长城汽i车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HKn风险提示1行业竞争加剧2销量和政策端不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4competitioninincompetitionthedomesticautoindustryithelpwillalsopromoteacceptanceandpenetrastrategiespricingtheirthatTeslaspricingstrategiesweadjustmentstheirbelievemajortoyetmadepricewilcutspressureoncompetingmodelsespeciallyintermsofpricingstrategiesworse4QNEVsIndustrycompetitionbewillindustryautotheforpoliciesintheintroducedtofuturestimulateconsumptionsupportcorrespondingnewthatbelieveweepidemictheafterconsumptionofrecoveryposiimportanttheConsideringexpectationsbeatsalesadditionIn2022boostwillmeasuresDecemberinindustryconsumptionandindustrydriveposttheInopportunityautosectorsrecoveryfurtherofthemarketandtheexpectationoffavourablefactorsintheindustrysuchasrepairposttheEnteringCsuchaspessimisticsalesexpectationsandfiercecompetitioncausingmarketthethatreiterateweandbecomeoptimisticgraduallyhasmarketHofexpectationsofRiskwarningrecoveryindustrythewithinWallMotorGreatHK00175AutothecompetitivelandscapeoftheindustryhasposttheofadventASeInternationalSourceexpectexceedto1Figureiaspdmcpreveepidemichinas-eshareadcpfseveraloflandscape2222Webetheautoofgrowth-thanWeseethattheautoindusautothethatseeWe100150200250300350lasOn6Jan2023Jan6On50s0VehiclesalesmonthYoYRHSYoYmonthsalesVehiclemonthsalesVehiclehnAscainfuooieMAutomobileofAssociationChinaphasethapag000Units000--VehiclesalesVehicle2020-11-01andsalesfinalexpectedAntipandelievelievethatitismainlyduetothecontinueddeclineinthedomesticmacroeconomicenvironmentvee2020-12-01fo112021-01-01with-enteredanewroundofreboundandmarginalrepairoftheautoindustryhasbegunhasindustryautotheofrepairmarginalandreboundofroundnewaenteredr-2021-02-01epidemicpande-Idisclaimerncreasingindustrycompetitionpanmicationsinthe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