澳门与中国内地同步,在1月8日取消了几乎所有疫情管控相关的旅行限制。尽管旅行承载力有限,澳门的跨境旅行规则基本上恢复了疫情前的范式。开放首日,澳门游客量仅为2019年的36.7%,意味着有很大的增长空间。
我们维持“跑赢大市”的行业评级,并建议在股价回调时收集。我们认为,在未来几周和几个月内,如果澳门博彩业实际业绩未达到市场预期,投资者情绪肯定会先回调走低,但随后会继续改善趋势。虽然可能不稳定,但我们预计澳门博彩业的上升趋势将持续贯穿2023年,特别是在2023年下半年。因此,我们认为短期不及预期和股价回调都将是收集机会。 我们建议逢低收集,尤其是股价波动性较大的博彩股。自疫情开始以来,一般在市场不是最受欢迎的美高梅中国(02282 HK)和永利澳门(01128 HK)的股价从低点升至高点,创最大涨幅。从2020年开始,美高梅中国(02282 HK)和永利澳门(01128 HK)的股价由历史低点升至历史高点,涨幅分别为249.8%和227.2%。 风险:2023年澳门博彩业复苏的步伐仍高度不确定,可能不稳定或低于预期。短期内,如果春节或一月的业绩(访客数量或博彩收入)令人失望,股价可能会回调。 研究报告全文:股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportGamingSectorNoahHudson行业报告博彩行业8675523976684noahhudsongtjascomhk11January2023TableMainInfoMacaosCovidControlsCometoanEnd行澳门疫情管控措施结束业InsyncwithmainlandChinaMacaoremovednearlyallCovid-controltravelrestrictionson8JanuaryMacaoscross-bordertravelruleshaveRatingTableInvestInfo报Outperformessentiallyreturnedtothepre-pandemicparadigmalbeitwithlimitedtravelMaintained告SectorReportcapacityOnthefirstdayofopeningupMacaovisitationwasjust367of评级跑赢大市维持thatin2019indicatingthatthereisgreatroomforgrowthpotential2WemaintainourOutperformsectorratingandsuggesttoaccumulateonsharepricepull-backsWethinkthatinthecomingweeksandmonthsifactualMacaogamingresultsmissmarketexpectationsinvestorsentimentSectorperformancewillofcoursefirstcorrectlowerbutwillthencontinuetofurtherimprove行业表现AlthoughitmightbeerraticweexpectMacaogamingsupwardrecoveryreturntrendtocontinuethroughout2023especiallyin2H2023Assuchwethinkanyshorttermmissedexpectationsandsharepricepull-backswillbe1200accumulationopportunities700证Werecommendtoaccumulateondipsespeciallygamingstocksthat200告haveshowngreatersharepricevolatilitySincethestartofthepandemic券thelesspopularnamesMGMChina02282HKandWynnMacau01128300研报HKhadthegreatestincreasesinsharepricefromtheirlowstotheirhighs800究究Startingfrom2020thesharepricegrowthfromthehistoricallowtotheJan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23historicalhighforMGMChina02282HKandWynnMacau01128HKwasResearchReportHSIGalaxyEnt报研2498and2272respectivelyWynnMacauMelcoResorts告MGMChinaSandsChina券SourceBloombergRisksThepaceofMacaosgamingrecoveryin2023remainshighlyEquity证uncertainandcouldbeerraticorslowerthanexpectedShorttermtherecouldbesharepricepull-backsifChineseNewYearorJanuaryresultsnumberofvisitorsorgamingrevenuedisappoints澳门与中国内地同步在1月8日取消了几乎所有疫情管控相关的旅行限制尽管旅行承载力有限澳门的跨境旅行规则基本上恢复了疫情前的范式开放首日澳门游客量仅为2019年的367意味着有很大的增长空间Ta我们维持跑赢大市的行业评级并建议在股价回调时收集我们认为在未来几周和几个月内如果澳门博彩业实际业绩未达到市场预期投资者情绪肯定会先回调走低但b随后会继续改善趋势虽然可能不稳定但我们预计澳门博彩业的上升趋势将持续贯穿博l2023年特别是在2023年下半年因此我们认为短期不及预期和股价回调都将是收集机会彩e行我们建议逢低收集尤其是股价波动性较大的博彩股自疫情开始以来一般在市场不是业最受欢迎的美高梅中国02282HK和永利澳门01128HK的股价从低点升至高点LGamingSector创最大涨幅从2020年开始美高梅中国02282HK和永利澳门01128HK的股e价由历史低点升至历史高点涨幅分别为2498和2272f风险2023年澳门博彩业复苏的步伐仍高度不确定可能不稳定或低于预期短期内t如果春节或一月的业绩访客数量或博彩收入令人失望股价可能会回调MarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4Setrendtocontinuethroughout2023especiallyin2H2023AssuchwethinkanyshorttermmissedexpectationsandsharepriceandshareexpectationstermmissedanyshortthinkweAssuch2H2023inespecially2023throughoutcontinuetotrendfirstcourseofwillsentimentinvestorwillimprovefurtherlowerbuttothencontinueexpectationscorrectmarketmissresultsgamingMacaoactualifmonthsandweekscomingpullpriceshareonaccumulatetosuggestandratingsectorOutperformourmaintainWeYearfallswhichonholiday21gamingintheimprovedtowardhassectorsentimentMarket2019ofthatof80to60fromtorecovercannumbersvisitationideallythathopesinvisitorspotentialgrowthforroomgreatistherethatindicating2019inthatof367justwasvisitationMacaoupopeningofdayfirsttheOnferrydeparturesbussesexpectedetctorampisingraduallytheweekscomingupandmonthstodemandgrowingmeetferryservicescrossprethetoreturnedessentiallyhaverulestravelborderwithsyncIneMacaocancelsqMainlandcancelsquarantinerequirementsandmostCovidMacaoInternationalAirportwillHongKongCancelledallrestrictionsonenteringcasinosnohealthcoderequiredAllowedentertoNoCovidrequiredtestifenteringXXXXXXFerryserviceresumedonWhatTableaccumulationopportunityanYearNewwhichholidayfalls2onyear135additionalanincreaseddisappoirevenuetherecouldbetermShortpricesharepullthattherewillacertainexpectationsbestrongrevenuecouldperorofAftervisitormerelypandemicmeetgamingthreeyearsmissalmostpsycexpectationsfullWithnormalizationofMacaotravelpoliciesgamingrecoveryarehighvisitorexpectationsActualtotravelMacaoaswthslowerorerraticbecouldanduncertainhighlyremains2023inrecoverygamingMacaosofpaceTheRiskshighMGMhistoricalforMacauHKand02282and2272HKwas01128respectively2498ChinaWynnpricsharethe2020fromStartinggreatesthighstheirthetolowshadtheirfromHKpriceshare01128inincreasesMacauWynnandHK02282ChinaMGMnamespopularlessthepandemictheofstartthethatstocksgamingespeciallydipsonaccumulatetorecommendWepullSourceGuotaiSourcethSheungWanHongSheungKongWanCentralShenzhenairportShenzhenairporte-backswillbacksbelas-1tpagMacaoMacao2019107962visitorsTherewere35479visitorstoMacaoon9JanuaryTheMacaoGovernmentTourismOfficeTourismGovernmentMacaoTheJanuary9onMacaotovisitors35479wereTherevisitors1079622019-eZhuhaiJunanInternationalJunanfomainlandChinaMacaoremovednearlyallCovidallnearlyremovedMacaoChinamainlandrMacaouarantinerequirementdisclaimerhasaccumulation---On8JanuaryMacaohad39643visitorarrivalsequivalenttojust367oftheaveragedailynumberofnumberdailyaveragetheof367justtoequivalentarrivalsvisitor39643hadMacaoJanuary8OnntsOuterHarbourFerryTerminalthepeninsulaTaipanearMacauInternationalAirportMacaubridgeresumed24-borremovednearlyremovedCoallfromoutsideofmainlandChinaHongKongandTaiwanbutneedathelastweekincludingexpectationsforstrongvisitationtoMacauduringtheseventheduringMacautovisitationstrongforexpectationsincludingweeklastthederderbusesandbordershaveopenedandresumedserviceTravelcapacitythenumberofflightscharterAfterhavingalreadyincreasedanaverageof287inDecember2022MacaogamingstockshavestocksgamingMacao2022Decemberin287ofaverageanincreasedalreadyhavingAfterlimitedscheduleafterneresumeflighttransferserviceMacao-27January27opportunities-1sforentryfrommainlandChinaHongKongandTaiwanTaipanea--27JanuaryseepostWetofrommainlandChina-datethrough10January2023MarketexpectationsarehighfortheseventheforhighareexpectationsMarket2023January10throughdate-hourservicegoldenbusresumedits24rMacauInternationalAirportvid--backsifChineseifbacksNewYearorJanuaryvisitorsofnumbergamingorresultsbeatingreboundofpentarly-controltravelrestrictionscontrolPthreeyearsofsuspension-controltravelrestrictionsAlthoughitmightbeerraticweAlthoughbeitmighterraticexpectMacaogamingsHongKongorTaiwanProvince-pandemicparadigmalbeitwithlimitedtravelcapacityMacaoairportMacaocapacitytravellimitedwithalbeitparadigmpandemic-CNYandpricedisappointmentsharedip-controltravelrestrictionson8January8onrestrictionstravelcontrol-updemandforupMacaogamingabout10sailingsperdayhaveshowngreatersharepricevolatilitypricesharegreatershownhaveTablePageHeader-48hourhourservicenegativeCovidegrowthfromthehistoricallowtothetolowhistoricalthefromgrowthe-backstestsifitweretohappenasWethinkthatintheinthatthinkWe-dayChineseNewChinesedayupwardrecoveryhologyitishologyisnotitMacaoscrossMacaosPagePageanexpectedan-dayChinesedayaigSectorGaming2Date23ofof1088888889-4Since---------ellasellDecJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJan----------222323232323232323232nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTGamingSector博彩行业SectorReport11January2023SeGuotaiJunanInternationalGuotaiJunanSlowestFiguree350250150SourceSourcearound15toamountedthatofFigureMOPbn150250350ourceforwardvaluationswhicharebasedonthenextnexttheonbasedwhicharevaluationsforwardNoteInternationalJunanGuotaiSourceBloombergWeightedAvgSimpleAvgBelleBloomberryResOtherWeightedAvgSimpleWynnRPennNMgmResortsInteVeLasCaesarBoydGamingUSAWeightedAvgSimpleWynnHoldingsSjmLtdSandsMgmChMelcoGalaxyEntertainMacaoCompanyTable50th50e4535251515253545las5millionCorp51MacaoLtdResoandCoordinationBureauGamingofInspectiongasSandsChinaLtdsEntertai-AvgatlGamingAvgMacaoesortsLtd--tinaamount1HistHistFwdAvgisforwardaveragethevaluationoverratiothepastyearsForwardfivetakenfromBloomberg32pag2018A-Maca140AdrMacaogMacaonThe30335898eStatisticsandCensusServiceCensusandStatisticsforodisclaimersince2004umberof394101GGRGrowthRHSTotalGrossGamingRevenueLHSBLOOMBLOOMPM2022WYNNUS2019AMLCOMLCOUSPENNPENNUS00000000amingMGMMGMUS341128HK1928HK2282HK292CZRUSBYDUSBELPMLVSUS880880HK27HKStockCodegamingrevenuegaming850VisitorsVisitorsL59Macaosectorector7932020ACrncyHKDHKDHKDUSDHKDUSDUSDUSDUSDUSDUSDHKDPHPPHP3076077pvisitorsin2019ineers293529351088132753509433943330093764527843505599Price138890998499fourquartersnexttwosemitwonextquartersfour2021A43787wasthethewasYoYRin20222022inMacao315MHK693150237523371129-137835364729456522354413461Cap19Bn2022ASARP5142294253175417541754175422622622614313515413811421nananananananananaAPE100100--80-60-40-200204060804060808060402020-annualsornextfiscalyearfiscalnextorannuals1762012011391441902nanananananananananananana97972F100150200250300350MOPbnFigure50FigureSARS-Sourceource144perdaypertocompared20221080002019ininHistHistAvg1000thousand600400200200400600800GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiFwd-1241251271231551801002102122252004091981831422171152019inthatof--Macao2018AaignpcinnCodntoBraofBureauCoordinationandInspectionGaming313189792103643031MacaoMacao-436328EVAdjustedEBITDAFwdStatisticsandCensusServiceCensusandStatistics153102174234357357357110110110nananananana29294758682598011Asof2019AmountTotalGrossGamingRevenueLHSTablePageHeader2019A10002022245821visitorsaveragedvisitors2921642164214832646224411511185111725921215127466136454512910616772021na8484247694AVisitorsLgamingrevenuegaming5356564912382979081101101102nanananananananana29296567652020A2-F20730252760valuati-1281461872813082685812752751842652376072na9494949490265559703FonsaretheBloombergconsensusareonstheconsensusBloomberg-3066012021Aaround1022481572971166-ROE343434280381165165165190409872nananananana2626742MoMRFwaswas-98810-1600016000190331justjust2022AMacaoPBR1351442nanananananana30303030864914352437363636-422PagePage113558FaigSectorGaming7685803ofof020406080100120Yield10050-5010042nanana0909090901020001000801010000000000032F2nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTGamingSector博彩行业SectorReport11January2023SeorlawapplicabletocontrarybewhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunanwouldanditsgroupcompaniestuseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyinlocatedbuseortodistributionforintendedoratdirectednotisReportResearchThisandrelateditsrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsdaandinformationtheofforwardcompletenessandaccuracytheguaranteenotdoesResearchGuotaiReportthisincontaineddatainformationandtheaccuracyoftheensuretomadebeenhaseffortbestThoughmanagementassetthebyJunanmadedecisionsinvestmentoropinionstocontrarybeordiffersalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisrAnyopinionsexpressedthisreportinordifferbecontrarymayopinionsortoinvestmentstrategiesexprunderwriterorproprietarilyinvestreportsresearchaJunanGuotaiJunanGuotaiLimitedKongHongThisResearchReportdDISCLAIMERWebsitewwwgtjacomhkTel852250927FLowBlockGrand654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkTableSectorRatingDefinitionSectorRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitioneTabledisclosure202OutperformSellReduceNeutralAccumulateBuyUnderperformNeutralthe3lasReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunanandgroupitscompanemployednothavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiENTERTAINMENT00027GALAXYHKSANDSCHINAof01928respectHKmentionedinthisResearchinReportsecuritiestheinmarketamakewillormakingarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiReseaReportwithinthisprecedingthe12montinmentionedissuersthewithrelationshipsbankinginvestmenthadnothavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaimorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportHKBANKOFZHENGZHOU02558BANKHKJINSHANG06196HKforExceptTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdohavenotanyfinancialinterestsrelationintotheissuerT-GuotaiRatingDefinitionlookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlywithconditionseconomicandpoliticalfuturetheofassumptionsthefromderivedforecastsandestimateslookingheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReporttpagRatingDefinitionefoJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved-18Fax85225099118rdisclaimernldnivsmnbnigivsmnservicesinvestmentbankinginvestmentincludingHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexHNGADHRAETCLNHATCR01HLZOBN18HSRI02191REITHKSF01983BANKHKLUZHOU00512HEALTHCAREANDPHARMACEUTICALGRANDCHINAHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndex卖出减持中性收集买入跑输大市中性跑赢大市oesnotMillenniumconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbortRelativeDefinitionortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformancehehehehehePlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongorRelativePerformanceorRelativePerformanceorRelativePerformance5DefinitionfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalthethtPerformance15hee-hs7793fundamentalfundamentalfundamentaloutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookisisis-nditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusidomaycompaniesgroupitsndP15--5outlookoutlookoutlook55ofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorsectorofthecompanyorsectoristooanyoregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictiontoto-5-515-515ofthesectorofthesectorofthesectoranindividualservingasanofficeranasservingindividualanto5tfrxmlhpaiggnedaaesponsormanagerleadagentplacingtheexampleforetcshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesKongsectorisisisfavorableGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoortoequalholdnotdocompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforofresidentorcitizenaiswhoentityorpersonanyyunneutralaeenTiRsacRprmyotisomecontainmayReportResearchThishereintafavorableisisisisfavorableisfavorableununneutralfavorablefavorableTablePageHeadernessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredincoveredcompaniestorelatesthatnessnivsmnbnigrusfGuotaiofgroupsbankinginvestmentandmentionedinthisResearchReportoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchthisinmentionedissuertheofessedorallyessedorwritteninbyformyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesregulationorregulationeportmayPagePageJunanaigSectorGaming4iesofof4rch2nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTGamingSector博彩行业SectorReport11January2023
|
相关研报
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
