报告摘要
　　在2023年，我们认为短期的铝供应冲击风险仍然存在。在2023年，西欧和中欧的原铝生产仍然面临能源成本波动和电力供应不足的风险。欧洲的原铝产能已经落后了，与中国和其它地区存在显著的技术差距，生产每吨原铝需要消耗更多的电力。在电力成本上升时期这个不利条件会被放大。如果生产商不能获得低成本的电力，西欧和中欧的原铝生产将会受到负面影响。
　　中国宏桥的净利润对铝价的变动十分敏感。中国宏桥（“公司”）拥有全球最大的原铝产能，每年生产近600万吨原铝。中国宏桥的铝土矿、氧化铝和电力的自给率高，因此公司对成本的控制能力高于同业，特别是生产原铝的材料成本。
　　我们认为中国宏桥将更受益于铝价的上涨，因为公司是全球最大的原铝生产商且拥有充足的氧化铝供应。我们相信如果供应冲击发生，中国宏桥的股价将比同业受益更多。
　　维持公司目标价在14.10港元，维持“买入”评级。

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus19January2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变ChinaBenefitFromAluminumSupply01378HKHK1410--Buy--YHongqiaoShockMaintainBuy中国宏桥01378HK受益于铝供应冲击维持买入评级HK1410--买入--是证告券AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports研报后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版究究报研HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance告31000券14000EquityResearchReport29000证12000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2171848095159584640523恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE738257097112242212247国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4539001163871550034408700科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatDec18PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsChinaHongqiao01378HKBenefitFromAluminumSupplyShockMaintainBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK1410AnalystKevinGuoReportDate2023-01-18SummaryIn2023webelievetheriskofshort-termsupplyshockofaluminumremainsTheproductionofprimaryaluminuminwesternandcentralEuropestillconfrontsriskoffluctuatingenergycostsandelectricitysupplyshortagein2023TheproductioncapacityofprimaryaluminuminEuropeisoutdatedandthereisasignificanttechnologygapwithChinaandelsewhereproducersinEuropeconsumemoreelectricityforeachtonofprimaryaluminumproducedThisdisadvantagewillbeamplifiedduringtheperiodofrisingelectricitycostsTheproductionofprimaryaluminuminwesternandcentralEuropemaybeadverselyimpactedifproducersareunabletoobtainlow-pricedelectricitysupplyChinaHongqiaosnetprofitishighlysensitivetofluctuationsinaluminumpriceChinaHongqiaotheCompanyhasthelargestprimaryaluminumproductioncapacityintheworldandproducesabout6milliontonsofprimaryaluminumeachyearChinaHongqiaohashighself-efficiencyratioofbauxitealuminaandelectricitysotheCompanyhashighercostcontrolabilitythanitspeersespeciallyformaterialcostsforproducingprimaryaluminumWebelievethatChinaHongqiaowillbenefitmorefromtheriseinaluminumpriceasitisthelargestprimaryaluminumproducerintheworldandhassufficientsupplyofaluminaWebelieveifsupplyshocktakesplacethestockpriceofChinaHongqiaowillbenefitmorethanitspeersMaintaintheTPatHK1410andmaintainBuy中文翻译ChineseTableNewlyPublishedTranslation行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无SeethelasTabletpagefoLatestrdisclaimerchi3of6MorningResearchFocus最新报告中国宏桥01378HK受益于铝供应冲击维持买入评级评级买入6-18m目标价HK1410分析员郭勇报告日期2023-01-18报告摘要在2023年我们认为短期的铝供应冲击风险仍然存在在2023年西欧和中欧的原铝生产仍然面临能源成本波动和电力供应不足的风险欧洲的原铝产能已经落后了与中国和其它地区存在显著的技术差距生产每吨原铝需要消耗更多的电力在电力成本上升时期这个不利条件会被放大如果生产商不能获得低成本的电力西欧和中欧的原铝生产将会受到负面影响中国宏桥的净利润对铝价的变动十分敏感中国宏桥公司拥有全球最大的原铝产能每年生产近600万吨原铝中国宏桥的铝土矿氧化铝和电力的自给率高因此公司对成本的控制能力高于同业特别是生产原铝的材料成本我们认为中国宏桥将更受益于铝价的上涨因为公司是全球最大的原铝生产商且拥有充足的氧化铝供应我们相信如果供应冲击发生中国宏桥的股价将比同业受益更多维持公司目标价在1410港元维持买入评级Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKSINOHYTEC02402HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKKWGGROUP01813HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKGREENTOWNCHINA03900HKBIDU-SW09888HKSENSETIME-W00020HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKBIDU-SW09888HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchRe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