我们建议投资人在一月底之前增持板块，而在二月份转向审慎。我们认为在未来几个星期有望看到更多的需求端支持政策出台，这将持续提振市场情绪。因此，我们建议投资人在春节前继续增持板块。但是进入到二月份，我们认为将有不少地产公司宣布盈利预警。根据过往的经验，这仍然会给股价带来负面影响。我们建议投资人在二月份获利了结或者在标的选择上更为审慎。
　　需求端刺激政策将在2023年常态化。2023年1月5日，央行和银保监会宣布将对首套房的房贷利率实施动态化调整机制。该政策下，最低贷款利率在不同城市可以不同，根据当地房价的动态变化来决定。虽然该项政策并非新政，但却是高层释放的重要的信号，即房地产行业需求端的支持政策将在2023年成为常态化趋势。
　　我们看到来自一线城市销售复苏萌芽的信号。虽然短期内，新冠感染的影响在持续，但是我们最近看到来自一线城市的早期销售复苏信号。2023年的第一周，来自一线城市的销售面积为82.9万平方米，按周增长63%，同时也录得了自2022年第四季度以来的新高。考虑到需求端的支持政策，我们认为，更多的二线城市也有望在春节期间看到销售的复苏。
　　我们仍然推荐行业中的国企以及优质民企，考虑到1）他们稳健的即将发布的2022财年业绩；以及2）“系统性重要”房企获得的更多政策支持。我们当前对行业所持的评级是“跑赢大市”。优质龙头中，我们推荐龙湖集团（00960 HK）、金地集团（600383 SH）、保利发展（600048 SH）和万科企业（02202 HK）。
　　风险：1）重新放开前融，行业杠杆上行；以及2）购房需求加速下行。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportPropertySectorChunliZhan詹春立行业报告房地产行业85225097745jameszhangtjascomhk16January2023BiTableMainInfo-WeeklyUpdateDemandStimulusWillBecomeNormalin行2023业双周报2023年需求端刺激将成为常态化报WesuggestinvestorstoaccumulatesectorstocksbeforetheendofJanbutturnmorecautiousinFebWeseechancesformoredemand-sideRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReportsupportivemeasurescomingoutinthenextfewweekswhichwillfurtherMaintainedsupportmarketsentimentAndhencewesuggestinvestorstoaccumulatesectorstockstowardstheChineseNewYearHoweverwhenenteringinto评级跑赢大市维持Feb2023wethinkawaveofprofitwarningsmaycomeoutandbelievethat2profitalertswilldragonstockpricesaccordingtothepreviouspatternWeMSMPIandHSIperformancesuggestinvestorstotakeprofitortobemoreselectiveonstockpicksinFeb2023恒生内地地产指数和恒生指数400ofreturnDemand-sidestimuluswillbenormalizedin2023On5Jan2023the200PBoCandCBIRCjointlyannouncedtheestablishmentofadynamic00adjustmentmechanismformortgageratesforfirst-timehomebuyersUnder200thepolicytheflooronmortgageratescanvaryamongdifferentcitiesbasedonthedynamicchangesinlocalhousingpricesAlthoughthispolicyisnot400证newitisamuchstrongergesturefromthetopregulatorthatdemand-side600告券supportforthepropertysectorwillbeanormalizedtrendin2023800研报1000Wehaveseensomegreenshootsofsalesrecoveryintier-1citiesAlthoughtheimpactfromshort-termspikesinCovidcasescontinuedwehave1200究究Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23seenearlysalesrecoveryfromtier-1citiesrecentlyInthefirstweekof2023ResearchReportHSIIndexMSMPIIndex报研theGFAsoldintier-1citiesreached829ksqmupby63WoWwhichwasalsothehighestsincelastquarterof2022TogetherwithsupportivepolicySourceBloomberg告券fromthedemandsideweexpectthatmoretier-2citieswillseesalesrecoveryEquityNationalpropertysalesperformance证aroundtheChineseNewYearperiod全国房地产销售表现RMBbnWestillrecommendSOEsandqualityprivatenamesinthesector2000016018000140considering1expectedsolidFY2022resultsand2morepolicysupportto12016000thesystemicallyimportantdevelopersOurcurrentinvestmentratingonthe140001008012000sectorisOutperformAmongqualitynameswerecommendLongfor00960601000040HKGemdale600383SHPolyDevelopment600048SHandVanke-H800020T02202HK600004000-20Risks1Reopeningofup-frontfinancingincreasingtheindustrysleverage2000-40a0-602deterioratinghome-buyingdemandb房我们建议投资人在一月底之前增持板块而在二月份转向审慎我们认为在未来几个星期有AmountSoldofCommodityHousesLHSl望看到更多的需求端支持政策出台这将持续提振市场情绪因此我们建议投资人在春节AmountSoldofResidentialHousesLHS地AmountSoldYTDYoYofCommodityHousesRHS产e前继续增持板块但是进入到二月份我们认为将有不少地产公司宣布盈利预警根据过往AmountSoldYTDYoYofResidentialHousesRHS的经验这仍然会给股价带来负面影响我们建议投资人在二月份获利了结或者在标的选择SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina行上更为审慎业LPropertySector需求端刺激政策将在2023年常态化2023年1月5日央行和银保监会宣布将对首套房e的房贷利率实施动态化调整机制该政策下最低贷款利率在不同城市可以不同根据当地f房价的动态变化来决定虽然该项政策并非新政但却是高层释放的重要的信号即房地产行业需求端的支持政策将在2023年成为常态化趋势t我们看到来自一线城市销售复苏萌芽的信号虽然短期内新冠感染的影响在持续但是我M们最近看到来自一线城市的早期销售复苏信号2023年的第一周来自一线城市的销售面a积为829万平方米按周增长63同时也录得了自2022年第四季度以来的新高考虑到需求端的支持政策我们认为更多的二线城市也有望在春节期间看到销售的复苏r我们仍然推荐行业中的国企以及优质民企考虑到1他们稳健的即将发布的2022财年业g绩以及2系统性重要房企获得的更多政策支持我们当前对行业所持的评级是跑i赢大市优质龙头中我们推荐龙湖集团00960HK金地集团600383SH保利发展600048SH和万科企业02202HKn风险1重新放开前融行业杠杆上行以及2购房需求加速下行SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5TableTabletierlowerarecitiesASPthesehousingofdecliningMosttoBureaNationaldemandratesyearthemortgageratesforfirstCommissionRegulatoryInsuranceDemandtheir1consideringsolidcomingorprofitfullyexpectedbythemarketprofitalertswarningsprofitmayoutastheofresultsFY2022comeseasonAlthoughdeclinesisapproachingprofitofcertaineasingnewscouldcontinuetodriveshortsentimentchanceWSe宜昌平顶山洛阳济宁九江蚌埠金华温州扬州徐州无锡牡丹江吉林锦州丹东秦皇岛唐山兰州南宁武汉郑州厦门福州哈尔滨长春大连沈阳太原石家庄天津Cityee-dynamicchangesoflocalhousingpricesTobespecificforthosecitieswithASPofnewhomesfallingmonthfallinghomesnewASPofwithTocitiespricesthosehousinglocalforspecificofbechangesdynamic22citiesthtoinvestorssuggest-oneWebelievethisdynamicmechanismformortgageratesadjustmentisamuchstrongergesturefromthetopregulatorthatregulatortopthefromgesturestrongermuchaisadjustmentratesmortgageformechanismdynamicthisbelieveWeWenzhouWuxiWuhanYichangJiningJiujBengbuJinhuaYangzhouJilinJinzhouTangshanZhengzhouFuzhouShenyangTaiyuanTianjinLuoyangXuzhouDandongLanzhouNanningXiamenChangchunDalian1lass--yearforthreeconsecutivemonthslocalgovernmentscandecidetoreducemaintainorremovetheflooronmortgageonfloortheremoveormaintainreducetodecidecangovernmentslocalmonthsconsecutivethreeforyearPingdingshanMudanjiangQinhuangdaoHarbinShijiazhuangtostaymoreselectiveonstockpicksstockonselectivemorestaytoieuprfrhpoetscowlbaomlzdrni2023intrendnormalizedabewillsectorpropertytheforsupportside-CitiesthatlowerthatcanratesCitiesmortgagetiangforsidestimulpagwhichimplementcanthenewimmediatelypolicyAndhencewesuggestinvestorstomoreeuofStatisticsofu2022SepNBSduringfordisclaimerdemanduswillbe-timetimehomebuyersUnderthepolicytheonfloormortgageratescanvarydifferentamongbasedcitiesonaccumulate-sidenormalizednormalizedin2023FY2022FY2022supportivemeasuresmeasuressupportiveCBIRCpropertywill-resultsand2supportmorepolicytothetermdragdragonstockpricesaccordingtopreviousexperienceWeMoMMoM------------------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