中央经济工作会议（“会议”）于12月15日至16日召开，会议要求明年要坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。积极的财政政策要加力提效，保持必要的财政支出强度，优化组合赤字及专项债等工具，并加大中央对地方的转移支付力度。稳健的货币政策要精准有力，要保持流动性合理充裕，保持广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配。此外，我们认为会议内容和建筑工程行业相关的表述主要在以下四个方面。
　　支持房地产行业。在着力扩大国内需求方面，会议提到要支持住房改善。此外，会议亦提到确保房地产市场平稳发展，扎实做好保交楼、保民生、保稳定各项工作，坚持刚性和改善性住房需求，解决好新市民、青年人等住房问题，探索长租房市场建设，并推动房地产业向新发展模式平稳过渡。我们认为以上措施加上11月多个支持房地产企业融资的政策逐步落实，明年商品房销售(需求端)及房地产开发投资(供应端)将较今年显著改善。由于央企在融资端(央企信用背书)及销售端(能保证交房)的显著优势，很多涉房建筑工程央企的房地产销售排名在过去一年大幅上升，如中国铁建(01186 HK)及中国中铁(00390 HK)的排名分别从2021年1-11月的第27位及第55位，大幅提高至2022年1-11月的第17位及第29位。我们认为这些优势将形成良性的经营循环，涉房建筑央企的房地产开发收入及利润将持续提高。
　　加强基建投资。在着力扩大国内需求方面，会议提出要通过政府投资和政策激励有效带动全社会投资，加快实施“十四五”重大工程，加强区域间基础设施联通。我们认为，即使在今年基建投资增速异常高的情况下明年增速或将放缓，也并不影响建筑央企明年的业绩好于今年，主要因为现时很多建筑工程央企主要的建筑业务收入并不是来自基建，而是来自房建。例如，中国铁建(01186HK)2022年上半年新签合同中36%来自房建，甚至比铁路和公路新签合同的合共占比（19%）还要高。在“保交楼”的刚性要求下，我们预计明年总施工面积及总竣工面积将恢复正增长，从而强力推动建筑央企的房建业务收入大幅增长。
　　提供“一带一路”新机遇。2023年是“一带一路”倡议提出十周年，中国或将主办第三届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛。我们认为届时或将有多项重磅措施或项目推出，符合会议提出要推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展的要求。由于过去两年疫情影响下技术人员及机器设备流动受限叠加供应链扰动，建筑央企的国际新签合同占比大幅走低。随着防控措施优化及与国际往来逐步恢复常态，加上“一带一路”新项目的持续签订，我们预计明年国际新签合同金额及占比将大幅增加。
　　深化国企改革。会议提到要深化国资国企改革，提高国企核心竞争力；完善中国特色国有企业现代公司治理，真正按市场化机制运营。我们认为这与中国证监会主席易会满于11月21日在2022金融街论坛年会上的提法是相辅相承的，即要把握好不同类型上市公司的估值逻辑，探索建立具有中国特色的估值体系，促进市场资源配置功能更好发挥。例如，中国中铁(00390 HK)及中国铁建(01186 HK)等建筑央企的收入及股东净利在过去十年持续增长，但其估值仅为4倍左右的2022年市盈率及0.4倍左右的2022年市净率。这样的估值导致其没法进行再融资以进一步发展业务。我们认为相关央企在公司治理及股权激励的逐步完善下，加上公司层面的业绩带动，未来估值将出现大幅上升，并重新回到能够进行再融资的水平，开启业务发展的新良性循环。
　　基于以上观点，我们重点推荐受惠于地产回暖、基建投资持续发力、一带一路新机遇、国企改革低估值主题的公司，包括中国中铁(00390 HK，目标价7.60港元，评级“买入”)、中国铁建(01186 HK，目标价8.10港元，评级“买入”)及中交建(01800 HK，目标价5.20港元，评级“收集”)。此外，我们亦推荐受惠于地产回暖和基建投资持续发力主题的公司，包括中国建筑国际(03311 HK，目标价14.20港元，评级“买入”)、中国建筑兴业(00830 HK，目标价2.66港元，评级“买入”)及远大住工(02163 HK，目标价8.50港元，评级“收集”)。重申行业“跑赢大市”评级。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNoteConstructionEngineeringSectorGaryWong黄家玮快讯建筑工程行业85225092616garywonggtjascomhk19December2022TableMainInfoNotesonMattersRelatedtotheConstructionEngineeringSectorintheCentralEconomicWorkConference快中央经济工作会议建筑工程行业相关表述点评讯TheCentralEconomicConferencetheConferencewasheldfromDecember15thto16thTheFlashNoteConferencecalledforfocustoremainonstabilitytomakeprogresswhilemaintainingstabilityandcontinuetoimplementaproactivefiscalpolicyandaconsistentlystablemonetarypolicyAproactivefiscalpolicyshouldbeenhancedtoimproveefficiencymaintainingthenecessaryfiscalexpenditureintensityoptimizingthecombinationofdeficitsandspecialdebtandotherinstrumentsandincreasingthecentralgovernmentstransferpaymentstolocalgovernmentsAconsistentlystablemonetarypolicyshouldbepreciseandpowerfulmaintainingreasonableandsufficientliquidityandshouldkeepthegrowthrateofbroaddefinitionofmoneysupplyandsocialfinancingbasicallyinlinewithnominaleconomicgrowthrateWebelievethatthecontentfromtheConferenceisrelevanttotheconstructionengineeringsectorinfollowingfouraspectsSupportingtherealestatesectorIntermsoffocusingonexpandingdomesticdemandtheConferencementionedtheneedtosupporthousingimprovementInadditionthemeetingalsomentionedtoensurethestable证developmentoftherealestatemarketdoagoodjobinensuringthedeliveryofpropertiesprotectpeoples券livelihoodandstabilityofthemarketinsisttosatisfyrigidandimprovedhousingneedssolvethehousing研problemsofnewcitizensandyoungpeopleexploreconstructionoflong-termrentalhousingmarketandpromote究thesmoothtransitionoftherealestateindustrytoanewdevelopmentmodelWebelievethatwiththeabovemeasurestogetherwiththegradualimplementationofanumberofpoliciestosupportthefinancingofpropertyResearchReport报developmentcompaniesinNovemberresidentialpropertiessalesdemandsideandpropertydevelopment告investmentsupplysidein2023willsignificantlyimprovecomparedwith2022DuetothesignificantadvantagesEquityofcentralSOEsonthefinancingsidecreditendorsementbycentralenterprisesandsalessideguaranteeddeliveryofpropertiespropertysalesrankingsofmanycentralconstructionengineeringSOEsinvolvedinpropertydevelopmentprojectsrosesharplyinthepastyearrankingsofChinaRailwayConstruction01186HK证券研究报告andChinaRailwayGroup00390HKrosesignificantlyfrom27thand55threspectivelyinJan-Nov2021to17thand29threspectivelyinJan-Nov2022WethinktheseadvantageswillformavirtuousbusinesscycleandthepropertydevelopmentrevenueandprofitsoftheseenterpriseswillcontinuetoincreaseTStrengtheninginfrastructureinvestmentIntermsoffocusingonexpandingdomesticdemandtheConferenceaproposedtoeffectivelydrivesocialprivateinvestmentwithgovernmentinvestmentandpolicyincentivesb建acceleratetheimplementationofmajorprojectsproposedwithinthe14thFive-YearPlanandstrengthen筑linter-regionalinfrastructureconnectivityWebelievethatdespitethepossibleslowdowningrowthrateof工einfrastructureinvestmentin2023withanexceptionallyhighratein2022thiswillnotaffecttheresultsof程constructionengineeringSOEsin2023toperformbetterthanin2022asalargeproportionofconstruction行revenueactuallycamefromhousingconstructionnotfrominfrastructureconstructionForexample36ofChinaL业RailwayConstructions01186HKnewcontractsinthefirsthalfof2022camefromhousingconstructionevenehigherthanrailwaysandroadsconstructionnewcontractscombinedat19UndertherigidrequirementsoffguaranteeddeliveryofbuildingsweexpectthattheGFAconstructioninprogressandGFAincompletionwilltConstructionSectorEngineeringreturntopositivegrowthnextyearwhichwillstronglypromotethesubstantialgrowthofhousingconstructionrevenueofconstructionengineeringSOEsMaProvidingnewopportunitiesfortheBeltandRoadinitiative2023willbethetenthanniversaryoftheBeltandrRoadinitiativeandChinamayhostthethirdBeltandRoadInternationalCooperationSummitForumWebelievethattheremaybeanumberofmajormeasuresorprojectslaunchedatthattimewhichisinlinewiththemaingproposaloftheConferencetopromotetheco-constructionofhigh-qualitydevelopmentoftheBeltandRoadiinitiativeDuetothelimitationsofflowoftechniciansandmachinesandequipmentandthesupplychainproblemsncausedbytheCovidpandemicinthepasttwoyearstheproportionofnewcontractsfromoverseassignedbySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4Seethelastpagefo速基本匹配此外我们认为会议内容和建筑工程行业相关的的转移支付力度稳健的货币政策要精准有力要保持流动性合理充裕保持广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增和稳健的货币政策中央经济HKStateConstructionChinarinvestmentofthemesthefrombenefitingcompaniesConstruCommunicationsHK760reformenterprisecontinueBasedontheaboveviewslevelthatastartingrefinancingtoadocannewvirtugraduallycothewiththatbelieveWeandhaveconsistentlyexampleForallocationresourceGroupRailwayChinaassuchenterprisesinconstructionrolebetteraplaytoChiwithsystemvaluationaandestablishexplorecompanieslistedStreetForumAnnualMeetingonNovember21thatitisnecessarytograspthevaluationlogicofdifferenttypesofthofChairmanHuimanMrYithatoperateaccordingtothemarketstateofgovernancecorporatemoderntheimprovestateofreformDeepenyeartheBeltandRoadweexpecttheamountandproportionofandnewcontractsfromoverseastoincreasesignificantlynextblockadetheofliftingthereturngradualtonormalofinternationalinteractionWithcoupledwiththecontinuoussigningofnewaloprojectslowersignificantlywasenterprisescentralengineeringconstruction公司年市净率这样的估值导致其没法进行再融资以进一步发展业务我们认为相关央企在公司治理及股权激励铁建上市公司的估值逻辑探索建立具有中国特色的估值体系促进市场资源配置功能更好发挥运营我们认为这与中国证监会主席易会满深化国企改革上机器时或将有多项重磅措施或项目推出符合会议提出要推动共建提供我们预计明年总施工面积及总HK业绩好于今年主要因为现时很多建筑工程央企主要的建筑业务收入并不是来自基建加强区域间基础设施联通我们认为加强基建投资央企的房地产开发收入及利润将持续提高月的房建筑工程央企的房地产销售排名在过求端推动房地产业向新发展模式平稳过渡我们认为以上措施加上保交楼保民生保稳定各项工作坚持刚性和改善性住房需求解决好新市民青年人等住房问题探索长租房市场建设并支持房地产行业rdisclaimerPagePagedisclaimer一带一路2022层面01186HK设备第targetpricetarget04x2022F04x及房地产开发投资一带一路27的业绩带动未来估值将出现大幅上升并重新回到能够进行再融资的水平开启业务发展的新良性循环工作流动ing年上半年新签合同dpushpushdinratingBuyChinaRailwayConstructionConstructionRailwayChinaBuyrating位及improv新项目的持续签会议受thereformofstateofreformthewhicharewhich第在着力扩大国内需求方面会议提出要通过政府投资和政策激励有效带动全社会投资加快实施限新机遇会议提到要深化国资国企改革提高国企核心竞争力完善中国特色国有企业现代公司治理真正按市场化机制等建筑央企的收入及股东净利在过去十年持续增长-55叠加weasowned在着力扩大国内需求方面会议提到要支持住房改善此外会议亦提到确保房地产市场平稳发展扎实做好HK850PBRSuchvaluationSuchPBRinggrow会议积极的财政政策要加力提效保持必要的财政支出强度优化组合赤字及专项债等工具并加大中央对地方infrastructurenewinvestmenttheBeltandalongRoadbenefitopportunitiesfrom位大幅提高至nwtawithandanddrivenbytheresultsofthecompaniesthefuturevaluationfuturethecompaniestheofresultsthebydrivenand供应链扰供应端2023nChinaStateConstructioStateChina中ininthetenpastyearsandyetandtheirvaluationsareonlyat订Developmenttoction竣esnetrrssipoehcrcmeiieesfstateofcompetitivenesscoretheimproveenterprisesandsetsratingAccumulate于36rporategovernanceandstockincentivesprogramofrelevantstaterelevantofprogramincentivesstockandgovernancerporate我们预计明年国际新签合同金额及占比将大幅增加ourtoppicksarecompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofr年是将较今年显工面积将动12建筑央企的国际新签合同占比大幅ovlainoropcsarepickstopourvaluationlow来自房建甚至比-月-一带一路orientedmechanismthinkWethesedescriptionsareinlinewiththepropositions10HagtrcHK520pricetargetHK018002022ownedenterprisesowned去即使15PeChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionmentionedatthe2022Financial2022theatmentionedCommissionRegulatorySecuritiesChinae一年大幅上升如中国铁建恢日至s年复正增长著于在makeitimpossibletorefinancetoimpossibleitmake改善由于央企在融资端今年基建投资增速异常高100830HKtargetpriceHK266ratingBuyratingHK266pricetargetHK0083011倡议提出十周年中国或将主办第三届-1611月日召开会议要求明年要坚持稳字当头稳中求进继续实施积极的财政政策月的aettscorecoverysectorestateeal21铁路nInternational03311HKtargetHK03311InternationalnReiterateOutperformratingReiterateOutperformforthesector从而第日在和17强力推动建筑央企的房建业务收入大幅增长ouscircleofouscircleofbusinessdevelopment公路-2022weetrrssihhnscaatrsisadtrulyandcharacteristicsChinesewithenterprisesowned11位及表述01186HK01186一带一路ThemeetingmentionedthatitisnecessarytodeepenthedeepentonecessaryisitthatmentionedmeetingThe00390HK00390月多个支持房地产企业融资的政策逐步落实明年商品房销售新签合同的第主要在以下四个方面金融街论坛年会上的提法是相辅相承的01但29其估值仅186走的央企信用背书eeuandrevenue高质量发展的要求位我们认为这些优势将形成良性的经营循环涉房建筑低随着情况下hnRiwyruGroupRailwayChinaHKtargetpricetargetrtnAccumulaterating合共TablePageHeadernesecharacteristicsandpromotethemarkettheandpromotecharacteristicsneseandChinaRailwayConstructionRailwayChinaand及中国中铁为明年占比inorderin4防倍左右的控措施增速and及销售端一带一路19shareholders而是来自房建HK810或将放缓00390HKcontinuedpushininpushcontinuedtofurtherdevelopthedevelopfurtherto优化由于2022priceHK1420ratingBuyratingHK1420price例还要高能保证交房如sappropriately及与国际往来逐步国际合作高峰论坛过osrcinniernSectorEngineeringConstructionandBroadHomesHomesandBroadwillrisesharplyandreturnandsharplyrisewill年市盈率及ealealestatesectorrecovery去ratingBuyandChinaandBuyrating中国中铁在也两09HK00390WasrecommendalsoWe的例并不影响建筑央企年疫情影响排名eprofitnet-保交楼weenterprisesowned-如ownedenterprisesowned的即的显分别从030HK00390逐步完善下加上要把握好不同类型04十四五4x2022F中国铁建著infrastructure的刚性要求下倍左右的state恢下优势很多涉agtpricetargetir01186HK2021复常态加技术人员及我们认为届ofbusiness重大工程-centralowned年ngthe0216301186明年及中国PER20221-11的需2ofof4n2rgiMae1nigraMelbaTFlashNoteConstructionEngineeringSector建筑工程行业19December2022SeethelastpagandFigure5ChinaofStatisticsofBureauSourceNationalp3FigureSourcePBOC1FigureSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaofStatisticsofBureauSourceNational-40-30-20-101020304050e6000700010002000300040005000100150roperty-50050fo0港元评级目标价价铁基于以上观点我们重点推rp0disclaimerPagePagedisclaimerroperty520PropertyFAIProperty00390HK2019-12Nov-16JanYoYAccumulatedYoYMonthlyRMBRMBbillion2020-03Mar-17s1420港元评级alesalesandJul-17Feb2020-05dNov-17DevelopmentYoYPropertyInvestmentYoYSalesResidentialProperty收集evelopmentFAIg港元评级2020-07MarrowthofrowthMar-18目标价20202020-09tJul-18重申行业Aprotalotalp收集roperty2020-11Nov-18ManufacturingFAIManufacturingMay7602021-02Mar-19sociali买入nfrastructure此外我们亦推Jul-19Jun2021-04荐港元评级2021gNov-19受惠drowthrowth2021-06evelopmentevelopmentf跑赢大市中国建筑兴业JulMar-20ininancingChina2021-08于Jul-20Aug2021-10地产回暖Nov-20of2022买入PSep2021-12Mar-21r评级esidentialmJul-21荐2022-03InfrastructureFAIInfrastructureanufacturingOct中国铁建i受惠Nov-21nvestment2022-05基建投资持续发力00830HK00830Mar-22Nov2022-07于Jul-22地产回暖2022-09DecNov-222022-1101186HK目标价和-40-30-20-10s4FigureSourcePBOC2FigureSourceSourceFAI6FigureChinaofStatisticsofBureauSourceNationalc102030405010001500200025003000350040004500tartsGFAtartsompletionompletion基建投资持续发力主题的0-60-40-202040608050000266一带一路新机遇NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaofStatisticsofBureauNational目标价2019-12Nov-16JanAccumulatedYoYMonthlyYoY港元评级RMBbillionRMBIrrigationEnvironmentPublicFacilitie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