>> 中信期货-商品期权周报:波动率维持低位,关注铁矿石备兑看涨策略-230103
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2023/1/3 |
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中信期货 |
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魏新照 |
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场内外期权策略推荐方面。海外方面,美联储加息进程或已进入尾声,但通胀仍远离目标,能化类价格将维持下跌。国内方面,经济恢复市场预期较强,虽回暖仍需时间,但国内经济筑底基本完成,黑色及部分有色相关品种受到支撑。 综合来看,推荐白银备兑看涨、铁矿备兑看涨、原油与PTA波动率套利策略。 场内固定期权策略跟踪方面。.上周市场行情整体偏震荡,备兑看涨策略收益大幅回升,跨式策略收益相对稳定。2022年收益率2的是铁矿备兑看涨策略,为25.6%,收益率最低的豆粕备兑看跌策略,为37.0%。 场内商品期权隐含波动吨方面。市场波动率继续维持低位,反映出在国内外经济周期错位情况下,市场预期波动率将维持低位,但是极低波动率且持续时间较长情况下,待内外经济周期共振之时做多波动率策略占优。豆粕期权当前历史波动率分位数最高为74%,锌最低为0%。 场内期权流动性方面。近期场内期权活跃度提升,铜、铁矿石、原油、LPG、PTA、白糖、豆一、豆二、花生期权成交占期货在20%左右。 风险提示:策略逻辐发生变化;波动率短期波动较大
研究报告全文:--0123投资咨询业务资格证监许可2012669号nij2ijO-2i中信期货商品指数走势中信期货十年期国债期货指数j2ijn2i115中信期货沪深300股指期货指数240中信期货商品指数0113220200111180109160107140105120-012345678982ABCD103100713704826034048215837-0-2-1-2-1-2-0-2-0-2-0-2-1-2-0-2-1-2-0-2-0990011221122334455667-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0000000001111111111111222222222222222222222000000000000000000000EF2GHIJKLMNOP0Q2RSTUVWXY2ZB2222222222222222222222QRSabcde2fghijkglmnopqrs0tuvw2-xyzwzw00V2zw2-01234356789339l0zw22ABCDEF0-G-HCIJEKL0LzwP20n0VMN2QRSO2VWLMN2NXO2RS0j2002xe0HX-012345678197ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOCPQBRSTUVWXY1Z1-344u45GH78n10j1011G11H12n13n14nN-14017123-312412u5图表4场内固定期权策略金属板块收益率排序6126图表6场内固定期权策略能化收益率排序712GH8图表8场内固定期权策略农副板块收益率排序91249123nj10123311123G12123H13123n13123n14123neN14123neN15--012345678982ABCDEF2GHIJKLMNOP0Q2RSTUVWXY2ZB2QRSabcde2fghijkglmnopqrs0tuvw2-xyzwzw0abcdefgno5678yAxyBCJKqKzwOD2EFGBCBCJLMNy92JKHxyqHOPQV2IJ5zwH0TUBV2WXJKqKYZ2rsEzwJLMNW2W9R2qHOPQXYW2JKCRSHrsBMNKa06l2JKcNdwpqrsQt4XY29NdNd2uvwbmnw2efx78uyz32Co3g2A0g2Yhij-khijklcmnop-123-45zwzwP9I2wPw2no23qno2Sq062zNd2pqrsNdHNd2no0Sq22zw22zwP20aqVKrscdeFtuvw0N256193190180N15014012411411111086848272N6665626152403635281716160400N-06-10161718N---35--4052--61-65-66N-110-111-114-140-176-1800N-235N-317-370MNPQRSPQRUPQRSWXYZPQRSYZPQRSYZWXYZYZPQRSPQRUPQRUPQRSYZYZPQRSWXYZPQRUYZPQRSYZPQRSYZPQRSYZPQRUPQRUPQRUPQRUWXYZWXYZPQRSWXYZWXYZPQRUYZWXYZWXYZWXYZYZWXYZWXYZPQRSYZPQRUPQRUPQRUOVVOTTTTOVOVTFKTabTcTaVcVKKddbTTaTFdVTFcbTdbTVcTaKTFhijxyzklcmnopuL3qnozwzwP9INd2qu22zwSS2zwP42429400-arscdeFtu234--------000100002003000456789456784545hijxyzklcmnopPkPJ52pPstOP2pPtOP03q22zw22zwP2301-AB4VKrscdeFtuvw0N256N114110848266N62615228NN-18-61-66110N--1140NN-317PQRSYZYZPQRUPQRUYZPQRSWXYZPQRUPQRSPQRSYZWXYZWXYZWXYZPQRUOOOOKTacTacKKTaccTaKhijxyzklcmnoparsdeFtuTaefghcefghKefghOefgh5-hijxyzklcmnopGHPkPJ52pPstOP2pPtOP0GH3q22zw2329230AB6VKrscdeFtuvwN150140MNN86726540MN363504NMN-06-10-35-40-52N-65MN-140NPQRSYZPQRSPQRSYZYZPQRSYZPQRUPQRUPQRUWXYZWXYZPQRUWXYZWXYZbTVVddbTdVbTdbTVhijxyzklcmnop-arsdeFtubTefghdefghefghVefghhijxyzklcmnopPPJ523433PPJ5pPstOP2pPtOP03q22zwP2342zwP206-AB8VKrscdeFtuvw0N193190180N124111N17161600NN-16-17N-111-176-1800N-235N-370PQRUPQRSWXYZPQRSWXYZYZPQRSYZPQRUWXYZWXYZYZPQRSYZPQRUPQRUVVTTTTVVTFTFTFTFhijxyzklcmnoparsdeFtuVefghTFefgh7-Tefghefgh--hijxyzklcmnop6789ijn2FX290jVOD2B0j20abVKcuvwS744731292518158735443321100-hijxyzklcmnop-8-m22Xk0OD2jVmj430abbcuFGHIJKLM3-E-2-D--C-1----E0303030030030030NOPQRSTPOhijxyzklcmnopGk02jVmj30---abqjcuUVHIJKLM--E-D-C---01010E010010D010010C010301WXYNhijxyzklcmnopH2k234P2m0HD2Vmj3S0--abcuZHIJKLME-2-D--C-1----300D0D0D00D0D0D00D0D0D00DPPQWWhijxyzklcmnopnmx2xvX0nN2xjVmj0abcuaHIJKLM2-D--C-1----20C03E0C0330C030C030C030C03YbNcbOhijxyzklcmnop--nk22IxmoA0n2jVm3S3j0abcudeaHIJKLME-2-D--C-1----20101E010130101010101010101bNWhijxyzklcmnop78ABCDEabc6cm6本周期权成交量期货成交量8000700060006867500040002528300021332242234122232098113411181617120813661325323920001429124180710000874212022000177078804551000铜铝锌12黄金原油LPG甲醇PTA塑料PVC棉花白糖豆粕菜粕玉米豆油豆豆花生铁矿石动力煤聚丙烯棕榈油菜籽油天然橡胶hijxyzklcmnop-0-abc6ccm6ccm666cc66cmcmqbbqbbbbbbqbbqbbqbbqbbbbqbbbqbbbbbbbqqbbbbbbqbqqbbqbqqqbbqqbqbqbbbbqbqqbbbbqbqbbbbbjbbqbqqqbqbbqqbqbbbqbbbbbbqbbbbbqbqbbqqqqqqbbqqbqbbbhbbbbbbbbqbqbbbbbbbqbqbbbqqbbbqqbqbbbqqbbbbbbbbqqqbbbbqbbqbbbbbqbqbbbbqqqbbqbqqbbqbqbqqbbbbbqqbqbbqbbbbbqbqbbbbqbqqbbbqbbbq-1-bbbqbqqqbbqbbqbqbbqqqqqbbbqqbbqqqbqqqqbqqqbbhijxyzklcmnopAB18fc0pc0ZZZZqpZZqZbqZbqqpbqbbqqGcqGcbGcqbGcbGcqGcbqcmpGcqGcbqGcqGcbbGcqbGcbhijxyzklcmnop-5-9ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYCDEFGHZBabcOdefghaijklmnompqmrsmtumtvmwxmyzKLOmWABJKCqLmCDEFGHOY2qLmWXYCDEFGHOeLBabcOdefgqmWaOBJKOPqammOLmORBOCDEFGHXDOBJKLfLdeOBadeOfgOqJKWJKoLqOOqeWKoLqWKLfaeLBCDEFGHfeKPWJKCLDtLgBCDEFGHJKoLDmhLmmhfaOLWaefgJKoLDmhLmmVaBCDEFGHfqKoLaWJKfdeLWJKeLfmiWJKoLfuCDEFGHOaPOGHL-WKCLf201W01a234563WKfamm7O8Bfa34201WKfCDEFGH901Lae45WVSs333333SS44SSS3343bb--
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