1.中国经济
　　回顾：2022年，国内疫情反复对宏观经济和风险资产价格构成明显抑制。由于国内疫情多点散发，我国消费明显受到抑制，宏观经济偏弱运行。加上美联储加息抑制全球风险偏好，我国股市承压下跌。海外高通胀给我国带来输入性通胀压力，为了防范通胀，我国货币政策放松幅度有限，国债收益率低位震荡。
　　展望：2023年我国经济面临外需走弱、房地产投资偏弱、消费不强不利局面；在稳增长政策支持下，2023年我国经济有望弱修复。（一）2023年海外经济增长进一步放缓，我国外需仍存在下行压力。（二）考虑到防疫政策的优化与防疫经验的累积，2023年国内疫情有望缓解，消费趋于修复。（三）预计2023年上半年我国房地产投资低位企稳，下半年小幅改善。（四）基础设施建设力度或进一步加大。（五）2022年我国GDP增速显著低于目标，预计2023年稳增长力度将加强。
　　2.海外经济
　　回顾：2022年，海外经济体普遍面临高通胀问题，为了遏制通胀而大幅加息。美联储加息导致美元大幅升值，非美货币普遍贬值。同时推动美债收益率大幅上升，美股承压下跌。
　　展望：2023年美欧仍需加息控通胀，经济趋于弱衰退。（一）考虑到长期新冠对劳动力供应的持续抑制以及服务业略微增长对劳动力需求的支撑，2023年美国劳动力供需紧张的缓解不会很快。（二）预计2023年上半年美国核心服务CPI同比维持高位，下半年有所回落，但年底仍较高。（三）2023年美联储继续加息至5%左右；核心服务通胀仍较高，美国就业不会很差，美联储不太可能转向降息。（四）2023年美国利率水平将提高至限制性高位，商品需求将明显下降；美国服务消费将略微增长，整体经济弱衰退。（五）欧元区经济已经显现衰退迹象，高通胀和加息将使得欧元区经济步入衰退。
　　

研究报告全文：中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch2023-01-03中国期货市场年度展望投资咨询业务资格证监许可2012669号ChinaFuturesMarketAnnualOutlookInvestmentconsultingbusinessqualificationSECLicense2012No669摘要ABSTRACT本文总结了中信期货部分重点品种2023年度展望分为宏观经济金融期货能源化工桂晨曦CFAPhD工业金属农产品五部分详细内容可参考中信期货年报完整版本从业资格号F3023159投资咨询号Z0013632GuiChenxiCFAPhDThisreportisasummaryof2023annualoutlookofmajorChineseFuturesbyCITICQualificationNoF3023159FuturesresearchinstituteincludingeconomyfinancialenergymetalagricultureproductsConsultingNoZ0013632Moredetailsareintroducedinthecompleteseriesofannualoutlookreports重要提示本报告难以设置访问权限若给您造成不便敬请谅解我司不会因为关注收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户市场有风险投资需谨慎IMPORTANTREMINDERAllcontentcontainedinthisreportisforreferenceONLYThecontentofthisreportdoesnotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesCoLtdwillnotregardarecipientasaclientjustbecausethereaderreceivesthisreport中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch目录摘要ABSTRACT1一宏观经济MacroEconomy31中国经济ChinaEconomy32海外经济OverseaEconomy4二金融期货FinancialFutures51股指EquityIndex52国债ChinasGovernmentBonds63汇率ForeignExchangeRate7三能源化工EnergyChemicals81原油CrudeOil82燃料油FuelOil93动力煤ThermalCoal104PTA115PPPE12四工业金属IndustrialMetals131黄金Gold132铜Copper143铝Aluminum154螺纹钢SteelRebar165铁矿石Ironore17五农产品Agricultures181生猪LiveHog182豆粕SoybeanMeal193棕榈油PalmOlein204白糖WhiteSugar215棉花Cotton22免责声明32Disclaimer33233中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch一宏观经济MacroEconomy1中国经济ChinaEconomy回顾2022年国内疫情反复对宏观经济和风险资产价格构成明显抑制由于国内疫情多点散发我国消费明显受到抑制宏观经济偏弱运行加上美联储加息抑制全球风险偏好我国股市承压下跌海外高通胀给我国带来输入性通胀压力为了防范通胀我国货币政策放松幅度有限国债收益率低位震荡ReviewIn2022theresurgenceofpandemicrestrainedChinesedomesticconsumptionleadingtotheslowdownofChinaseconomyThemonetarytighteningcycleofUSFedandEuropeancentralbanksuppressedoverseariskappetitecontributingtothedropofChinesestockmarketPeoplesBankofChinawascautiousonmonetarypolicyeasingtopreventinflationChinatreasurybondyieldfluctuatedthroughouttheyear展望2023年我国经济面临外需走弱房地产投资偏弱消费不强不利局面在稳增长政策支持下2023年我国经济有望弱修复一2023年海外经济增长进一步放缓我国外需仍存在下行压力二考虑到防疫政策的优化与防疫经验的累积2023年国内疫情有望缓解消费趋于修复三预计2023年上半年我国房地产投资低位企稳下半年小幅改善四基础设施建设力度或进一步加大五2022年我国GDP增速显著低于目标预计2023年稳增长力度将加强OutlookIn2023Chinaseconomyisexpectedtorecoverwiththesupportofgrowthstabilizingpoliciesalthoughstillfacingthepressureofweakexternaldemandweakdomesticconsumptionandweakrealestateinvestment1Theslowdownofoverseaeconomywillhaveannegativeimpactonexternaldemand2Theadjustmentofepidemiccontrolpolicywillbebeneficialfortherecoveryofdomesticconsumption3Chinasrealestateinvestmentmayremainlowinthefirsthalfof2023andimproveslightlyinthesecondhalf4Infrastructureconstructionmaybestrengthened5ChinasGDPgrowthratein2022issignificantlybelowthetargetwhichmaybringmorepolicysupportin2023333中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch2海外经济OverseaEconomy回顾2022年海外经济体普遍面临高通胀问题为了遏制通胀而大幅加息美联储加息导致美元大幅升值非美货币普遍贬值同时推动美债收益率大幅上升美股承压下跌ReviewIn2022overseaeconomiesgenerallysufferedfromhighinflationandthemajoritycentralbanksraisedinterestratetocurbinflationThemonetarytighteningcycleofUSFederalReserveledtosharpappreciationofUSdollaranddepreciationofmostnon-UScurrenciesaswellastheriseofUStreasuryyieldandthefallofstockmarketindex展望2023年美欧仍需加息控通胀经济趋于弱衰退一考虑到长期新冠对劳动力供应的持续抑制以及服务业略微增长对劳动力需求的支撑2023年美国劳动力供需紧张的缓解不会很快二预计2023年上半年美国核心服务CPI同比维持高位下半年有所回落但年底仍较高三2023年美联储继续加息至5左右核心服务通胀仍较高美国就业不会很差美联储不太可能转向降息四2023年美国利率水平将提高至限制性高位商品需求将明显下降美国服务消费将略微增长整体经济弱衰退五欧元区经济已经显现衰退迹象高通胀和加息将使得欧元区经济步入衰退OutlookIn2023theUnitedStatesandEuropewillstillneedhighinterestratestocontrolinflationwhichmayleadtoweakrecession1AsaresultoflaborsupplyrestrictionafterthepandemicanddemandrecoverinservicesectorthelabormarketimbalanceinUSmaynoteasesoon2ThecoreservicesectorCPImayremainhighinthefirsthalfof2023anddecreasesinthesecondhalf3USFedFundsTargetRatewillraisetoover5andveryunlikelytodropduetothehighinflationandsoundlabormarket4HighinterestratewillcurbproductsdemandwithmodestgrowthofservicesectorUSeconomymayenterintomildrecession5HighinflationandinterestratemaydriveEuropeaneconomyintorecessionaswell433中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch二金融期货FinancialFutures1股指EquityIndex对2023年A股走势谨慎乐观其中行情修复的驱动项上半年来自于风险偏好的修复下半年则需关注EPS所带来的正向影响一上半年地产周期下行叠加外需回落市场聚焦于稳增长政府部门中央企业部门制造有望成为加杠杆的主力信贷支持领域以及资本开支扩大领域有望成为阶段主线资金由债入股节奏将是这一阶段的关键二下半年PPI拐点显现或暗示进入补库周期若叠加全球衰退已经计价地产去化周期缩短等信号此时EPS修复预期渐起这一阶段重点关注地产链以及出口链的交易机会三期货方面上半年聚焦稳增长政策托底方向占优关注信贷支持的先进制造领域风格偏向IM下半年EPS修复启动关注弱势行业反转地产链偏后周期出口链存在布局机会风格预计均衡消费强度需结合防疫政策略偏向IFCautiouslyoptimisticonChinesestockmarketin2023ThemaindrivingforcemightbetheriskappetitereversalinthefirsthalfandpositiveimpactofEPSinthesecondhalf1InthefirsthalfwiththepressureofweakrealestatecycleandweakexternaldemandthemarketmightfocusongrowthstabilizingpoliciesCentralgovernmentandmanufactureenterpriseareexpectedtobethemaindrivingforceofaddingleveragebringingtradingopportunitiesincreditsupportandcapitalexpenditureexpansionareasThepaceofcapitalflowfromdebttoequitywillbethekeyinthisstage2InthesecondhalfthemarketmayenterintorestockingphasewithPPIreachesthebottomIfcoupledwiththerecoveryofrealestateindustrytheEPSexpectationmayriseespeciallyinrealestateandexport-orientedindustries3ForChinastockindexfuturesthefirsthalfmaytradeonpolicysupportsuchasadvancemanufactureindustrieswithcreditsupportwhichwillbemorefavorableforIMCSI1000stockindexfuturesThesecondhalfmayshifttotherestoringofEPSespeciallyonweaklyperformedindustrieswithreversalopportunitiesTherelativelybalancedstylemaybringbetterperformanceforIFCSI300stockindexfutures533中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch2国债ChinasGovernmentBonds展望2023年在稳增长政策继续发力的情况下明年经济增速大概率向潜在增速回归弱现实与强预期博弈格局或向强预期倾斜利率中枢水平可能有所抬升一2022年债市整体处于偏震荡格局背后体现的是市场对于强预期和弱现实之间的持续博弈市场对稳增长政策发力也有较高预期而与此同时经济也面临着需求收缩供给冲击和预期转弱的三重压力并且二季度疫情的超预期冲击无疑也进一步加剧了稳增长的难度以及经济所处于的弱现实环境二2023年我国经济修复有赖于稳增长政策的进一步发力呈现弱修复格局2022年经济偏离潜在增速2023年我国GDP实现5以上增速的迫切性加大政策预期对利率影响或更为明显10Y国债收益率中枢水平或提高至285左右波动区间可能有所扩大在265-305之间三二季度可能是财政政策发力以及政策预期的高峰阶段对利率的上行压力最为明显叠加基数效应下明年二季度各项经济数据或显著改善预期与现实共振债市二季度调整风险可能较大下半年伴随预期降温利率可能会略有下行TherecoveryofChineseeconomymaycontributetotheriseofChinastreasurybondyields1In2022Chinasbondmarketwasinarangeboundpatternshiftingbetweenstrongexpectationfromgrowthstabilizingpolicyandweakrealityofshrinkingexternalanddomesticdemand2Chinaseconomyisexpectedtoshowweakrecoveryin2023Thegrowthratein2022wasfarbelowtargetpolicysupporttoimprovetheeconomymayhaveimportantinfluenceoninterestratein2023Themediumlevelof10Ytreasurybondyieldmayrisetoabout285andtherangemaybebetween265to3053Thesecondquartermightbethepeaktimeforfiscalpolicysupportlastyearslowbaselinewillalsoresultinsignificantyear-on-yearimprovementoneconomicdatainQ2providingthestrongestupwardincentivefortreasurybondyieldInthesecondhalfbondyieldmaydropwiththeexpectationshiftstoreality633中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch3汇率ForeignExchangeRate2023年人民币对美元汇率可能先升后贬一短期来看人民币或有三方面支撑第一临近农历年关人民币汇率季节性走强第二美联储加息步伐放缓造成实际政策利率无法有效抬升对美元的拉动减弱人民币受到外部压力减轻第三近期关于疫情地产的政策出台有利于修复市场预期和风险偏好二长期来看需提防美联储二次紧缩外部压力第一美联储加息幅度放缓对应实际政策利率难以有效抬升信贷条件无法收紧核心通胀失控风险大幅增加第二通胀失控意味着什么美联储第二轮紧缩再度拉升实际政策利率美国经济软着陆概率降低第三上述路径对应到美元指数意味什么短期实际政策利率无法有效抬升美元走弱若二次紧缩重新拉升实际政策利率后美元重拾上涨三此外美元指数面临的外部贬值压力有限人民币受益于非美货币上涨而出现明显升值的概率偏低欧元区和英国经济状况难以支撑大幅加息欧元英镑的反弹难以维系日银难以退出目前的超宽松货币政策日元不存在自发式上涨的基础RMBUSDexchangeratemayfirstriseandthendeclinein20231IntheshorttermRMBissupportedbythreefactorsFirstseasonalitystrengthinlunarnewyearduetotheenterpriseyear-endforeignexchangesettlementSecondtheslowdownofUSFedsratehikereducesexternalpressureofRMBThirdtheeaseofpandemiccontrolpolicyandstimuluspolicyonrealestatebenefitstherestoringofriskappetite2InthemediumtermiftheslowdownofUSmonetarytighteningpacefailstocooldowntheinflationtheFedspolicymayneedtoberestrictiveagaintobringtheinflationdowntolong-termtargetInthiscaseifUSdollarstrengthenagainRMBmayunderexternalpressure3MeanwhiletherewillbelimitedexternalpressureonUSdollartheprobabilityofsignificantappreciationofRMBduetotheriseofnon-UScurrenciesislowEuropeanandUKEconomydonotsupportsharpinterestrateincreaseandsustainedreboundofEuroandGBPItwillbedifficultfortheBankofJapantowithdrawfromthecurrentultra-loosemonetarypolicythereisnosoundbasisforthespontaneousriseoftheyenaswell733中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch三能源化工EnergyChemicals1原油CrudeOil2023年基准预期原油价格宽幅震荡在油品需求增速逐渐放缓过程中欧佩克可能通过灵活调节供应从而实现供需动态均衡和油价高位震荡一商品属性供需动态对冲2020年欧佩克大幅减产以及全球经济疫后复苏推动2021年油品持续去库2022年供应回升需求放缓小幅累库2023年初步预计供需增幅双双回落或将以欧佩克动态调整产量方式对冲需求变化从而实现库存的动态均衡二金融属性需求压力仍存2020年美欧推出的超常规经济刺激计划推升2021年油品需求快速复苏2022年高通胀压力使海外央行全面紧缩经济增速回落使需求增速大幅放缓2023年美联储货币政策或转向在降通胀与保增长间寻找平衡金融属性对油品实物需求和投机需求压力或有所放缓但方向仍然向下三地缘属性供应存不确定2022年地缘属性导致供应预期变化和现实兑现是影响油价重要变量上半年在油品小幅累库和金融属性转弱背景下俄罗斯地缘冲突导致供应中断风险大幅推升地缘溢价下半年俄罗斯供应维持使溢价部分回落2023年原油供应增幅仍将受到诸多地缘事件影响需持续关注相关进展对供应预期修正Thebaselineexpectationofcrudeoilpricein2023israngeboundOildemandgrowthmayslowdownwiththeglobaleconomymeanwhileOPECmayadheretoactivesupplymanagementtoachievethedynamicbalanceofoilmarketandprice1CommodityfactorsOPECsupplycutandglobaldemandrecoveryafterpandemiccontributedtothelargeinventorydrawin2021In2022globaloilinventoryincreasedslightlySupplyanddemandgrowtharebothexpectedtoslowdownin2023whichmayresultinrelativelybalancedoilmarket2FinancialfactorstheextraordinaryeconomicstimuluspoliciesbyUSandEuropecontributedtothefastrecoveryofoildemandin2021Oildemandgrowthsloweddownwiththemonetarytighteningpoliciestocurbthehighinflationwhichmaylastinto2023puttingdownwardpressureonoilprice3GeopoliticalfactorsthesupplyriskcausedbyRussiaandUkraineconflictpushedupcrudeoilpriceto10yearhighinthefirsthalfof2022Thedropofoilpriceinthesecondhalfof2022droveOPECbacktosupplycutcyclewhichwillprovidesupporttooilpricein2023833中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch2燃料油FuelOil高硫燃油裂解价差将迎来向上修复低硫燃油持续承压一随美国战略储备原油库存抛售进入尾声欧佩克暂不增产情况下重质原油贴水上移布伦特-迪拜价差或将走弱高硫燃油裂解价差反弹驱动较足二2022年俄乌冲突带来高硫燃料油贸易流改变亚太地区的俄罗斯燃料油到货大增高硫燃油短期供应过剩驱动高硫燃油裂解价差暴跌2023年预计欧洲对俄制裁生效后俄罗斯燃料油产量下降亚太高硫燃油局部供应过剩将缓解三需求端高硫燃油加工经济性高位美国炼厂进料中东大炼化进料中国稀释沥青需求均处于高位高低硫价差高位也将刺激高硫燃油加注需求提升四2022年汽柴价差持续走弱炼厂积极增产柴油而控制汽油产量导致汽油原料向低硫燃油转移柴油裂解价差下跌前低硫燃油供应将持续受到汽油原料压制供给端中东亚太各国低硫燃油供应持续提升需求端船用加注需求低迷将对2023年低硫燃油裂解价差形成压力Thecrackingspreadofhighsulfurfueloilisexpectedtoincreaselowsulfurfueloilwillfacedownwardpressure1WiththereleaseofUSSPRfinishedandOPECbacktoproductioncutcycleheavycrudeoilpremiummayfindsupportprovidingupwardincentivefortherelativestrengthofhighsulfurfueloil2OnthesupplysidethegeopoliticalconflictofRussiashiftedtheglobalfueloiltradeflowin2022EuropeansanctiononRussialedtomoreRussianfueloilexportedtoAsiaresultingintheoversupplyandsharpdropofhighsulfurfueloilcrackingspreadinAsiaIn2023RussianfueloilproductionmaydeclinewithEuropeansanctioncomeintoeffectwhichmayeasetheoversupplypressureinAsianmarket3OnthedemandsidetheeconomyofprocessinghighsulfurfueloilisatarelativelyhighlevelwhichwillsupportthefeedstockdemandofUSChinaMiddleEastrefineriesThehighsulfurandlowsulfurspreadwillalsopromotehighsulfurbunkerfueldemand4In2022gasolinepricewasmuchweakerthandieselpriceRefineriesincreaseddieselproductionandshiftedsomegasolinefeedstocktolowsulfurfueloilWiththeincreaseoflowsulfurfueloilsupplyinMiddleEastandAsiaaswellassuppressedbunkerdemandoflowsulfurfueloilthelowsulfurfueloilcrackingspreadmayremainunderpressure933中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch3动力煤ThermalCoal煤炭供需趋于宽松煤价中枢有望回落一国内供应高增速2022年在国内高强度保供增产的保障下国内煤炭产量预计将达到44亿吨以上动力煤产量预计365亿吨同比增速7左右受海外供应冲击和能源价格高企进口煤出现较明显减量预计全年进口煤总量在28亿吨以上动力煤进口同比下滑18左右二需求增速逐步放缓2022年预计全年用电量同比增长45-5区间但由于清洁能源高增长火电同比增幅仅在2以上电煤消费增速在3左右全年动力煤需求同比增21随着清洁能源装机提升火电增速逐步放缓2023年煤炭需求增速或回落至1三供需趋于宽松明年国内煤炭供需仍将保持宽松新产能仍有望投放同时需求增速放缓高库存将对价格产生下行压力但不排除发生结构性因素推动煤价阶段上涨的可能Theloosesupplyanddemandbalancemayleadtothedecreaseofcoalprice1HighgrowthrateofdomesticsupplyIn2022Chinadomesticcoaloutputreachedover44billiontonsthermalcoalproductionwasaround365billiontonswhichincreasedby7year-on-yearMeanwhilecoalimportdecreasedsignificantlyduetooverseasupplyimpactandhighpricesTotalimportofcoalwasaround280milliontonsandthermalcoalimportdeclinedbyabout18annually2DemandgrowthisslowingdownIn2022theelectricityconsumptiongrewby45-5comparingtolastyearamongwhichthermalpowerusageonlyrosearound2duetotheincreaseduseofcleanenergyCoalandthermalcoalconsumptionincreasedby3and2respectivelyWiththecontinuousexpandingcleanenergyinstalledcapacitythegrowthrateofcoaldemandmayfallbackto1in20233SupplyanddemandtendtobelooseIn2023domesticcoalbalancemayremainlooseMoreproductioncapacityisexpectedtobeonlinedemandgrowthwilldrophighinventorypressuremayleadtothepricefallHoweveritispossiblethatcoalpricemayriseoccasionallydrivenbystructuralfactors1033中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch4PTA2023年PTA价格或有上行空间一2022年聚酯产业链面临着需求弱能源成本高的市场环境弱需求主要源自国内需求的收缩弱预期使产业链中下游主动积极去库聚酯产销压力贯穿全年产品现金流降至低位产品开工率不断调降2022年偏低基数和2023年需求扩张或助推2023年聚酯产量增速提升至6-8二经历连续两年去库后库存总量降到偏低水平这为供给增加提供缓冲2023年我国PTA产能规模或将抬升至8173万吨目前PTA产能扩张仍然高于下游聚酯意味着2023年PTA产能实际利用率难以显著提升甚至有进一步下调风险三2023年PTA高波动延续波动幅度或收窄低估值贯穿2022年需求扩张预期下2023年或有所修复上半年市场或消化产能投放压力价格上行谨慎下半年需求以及产能投放压力消化后可能提升PTA配置价值PTApricemayhavechancetoriseinthemediumterm1In2022polyesterindustrywasimpactedbyshrinkingdomesticdemandandhighenergycostWeakexpectationledtothedestockingofdownstreamUpstreamsufferedfromsalespressureandlowcashflowresultedinthedeclineofoperationrateLowbaselineanddemandrecoverymayboostthegrowthrateofpolyesteroutputto6-8in20232AftertwoyearsofdestockingPTAinventorydroppedtoarelativelylowlevelwhichwillprovidebufferforthesupplyincreaseIn2023ChinasPTAcapacitymayriseto8173milliontonsTheexpansionrateofupstreamPTAcapacityishigherthandownstreampolyesterwhichmeanstheactualutilizationrateofPTAcapacityin2023mayremainloworevensufferfromfurtherdecline3In2023PTApricemaystillexhibithighvolatilitywithnarrowerfluctuationrangeInthefirsthalfnewcapacitycomingonlinemaystillhavesomepressureonpriceinthesecondhalfthedemandrecoverymayprovideupsidepotentialtoPTAprice1133中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch5PPPE2023年聚烯烃价格可能先弱后强一2023年仍然是产能投放周期PP预估产能增速高达20PE也接近10或将限制价格反弹空间另外考虑到聚烯烃以低估值状态进入到2023年产能周期兑现也存在一定延后可能下跌空间或也受限二刚需小幅修复下半年好于上半年考虑到国内消费企稳回升工业和地产此消彼长出口跌后回升聚烯烃终端需求预计比2022年1-2小幅修复至3左右三2022年聚烯烃处于主动去库周期利润差叠加预期悲观产业链上下游都在主动去库叠加持续远月贴水的期限结构库存降至偏低水平从而增加2023年的再库存弹性四预计2023年上半年可能还是供应压力主导或能看到开工下降或者出口增加来平衡市场价格表现偏弱而下半年随着宏观预期强化产能压力也部分消化聚烯烃价格有望震荡反弹In2023polyolefinpricemaygraduallyrecover1Abundantnewcapacitywillbeonlinein2023witharound20increaseforPPand10increaseforPEwhichwilllimitthepriceupwardspaceMeanwhiletheundervaluestateofpolyolefinmaydelaysomenewcapacitywhichalsolimitsthepricedownwardspace2DemandmayincreaseslightlywiththesecondhalfbetterthanthefirsthalfTherecoveryofdomesticandexportconsumptionmaylifttheannualdemandgrowthratefrom1-2in2022to3in20233Polyolefinwasinactivedestockingcyclein2022duetotheweakexpectationpoorprofitandbackwardationcurvestructureTheinventorydecreasedtorelativelylowlevelwhichmaycontributetotherestockingphaseatcertainstagein20234ThepriceperformanceinthefirsthalfmaybeweakerduetotheadditionofnewcapacitytheindustrymayneedtoreduceoperationrateorincreaseexporttobalancethemarketInthesecondhalfwiththerecoveryofdownstreamdemandanddigestofnewcapacitythepolyolefinpricemaybeabletorebound1233中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch四工业金属IndustrialMetals1黄金Gold2023年预计贵金属价格存在上行空间一美国二季度结束前加息或暂停美元指数大幅上冲概率较低美国经济衰退时间最早或在二季度末较大概率在三四季度无论明年美国处于滞胀加深还是衰退落地都有利于贵金属价格二美国经济指标逐渐走弱从消费周期看美国个人实际可支配收入已回落至疫情前水平零售销售动能趋缓从地产周期看私人住宅投资增速显示疫情以来美国第二轮地产建设已结束从制造业周期看美国工业扩张趋势逐步进入尾声美国制造业新订单PMI今年徘徊于收缩区间显示需求已无增量三预计Comex黄金价格1620美元盎司为底部但由于通胀回落缓慢美联储降息也会较为慎重价格上涨程度或有限高点预期在1950-2000美元盎司白银的低库存问题或将更加严重价格上行空间或强于黄金In2023preciousmetalpricesmayrise1USFederalFundRatehikemaysuspendbeforetheendofsecondquartertheprobabilityofsignificantupwardofUSdollarindexislowUSeconomymayenterintorecessioninthesecondhalfwhichwillfurtherbenefitpreciousmetalprices2USeconomicindicatorsaregraduallyweakeningForconsumptiontheactualdisposableincomeofAmericanindividualsfellbacktothepre-epidemiclevelandtheretailsalesmomentumisslowingdownForrealestatethegrowthrateofprivateresidentialinvestmentshowsthatthesecondroundofrealestateconstructionpeaksincetheepidemichasfinishedFormanufacturingtheindustrialexpansionisgraduallycomingtoanendThePMIofnewordersinUSmanufacturingindustryhoveredinthecontractionrangethisyearindicatingthattherewasfewincreaseindemand3ComexgoldpriceisexpectedtobebottomedatUS1620ozHoweverduetotheslowdeclineofinflationtheFederalReservewillalsobecautiousincuttingFedFundsRateThereforethepriceupsidepotentialmaybelimitedandthehighpointisexpectedtobe1950-2000dollarsounceBecauseoflowinventorysilverpricemayperformstrongerthanthatofgold1333中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch2铜Copper2023年预计铜价或将进一步下探一为了压制高通胀欧美主要央行货币政策全面转向收紧投资者预期欧美经济有衰退风险2022年铜价重心有所下移但是低库存限制铜价深跌展望2023年预计高通胀短期难以缓解欧美货币政策难以转向高利率累积负面影响将继续显现全球经济增长将放缓需求增速下行供应维持偏高增长供需趋松将驱动铜价进一步下探二供应端今明两年全球铜矿新扩建项目偏多预期2022年和2023年全球铜矿产量增速分别为4和3全球精铜产量分别增长4和25中国铜产量增长38和48三消费端2022年在俄乌局势紧张欧美央行紧缩货币政策等因素影响下海外消费逐步走弱而就国内来看尽管3-4月华东疫情对铜消费造成负面冲击但是5月份随着疫情好转复工复产以及汽车和家电等行业刺激政策陆续出台国内铜消费明显改善2023年预计海外铜消费将随经济增长进一步放缓而转为负增长国内铜消费增长有望随着疫情防控政策优化而改善预计2022年和2023年全球铜消费增速分别为24和1中国消费增速24和3Copperpricemaydeclinein20231In2022centralbanksinUSandEuropetightenedmonetarypoliciestocurbinflationtherecessionexpectationaddeddownwardpressureoncopperpriceIn2023highinflationmaybedifficulttoeaseinshorttermthenegativeimpactofhighinterestrateonglobaleconomywilllastforsometimeLowdemandgrowthandhighsupplygrowthmayeaseglobalcopperbalanceleadingtofurtherdropofcopperprice2Onthesupplysidetherearemanynewexpansionprojectsin2022and2023Itisestimatedthatthegrowthrateofglobalcoppermineoutputin2022and2023willbe4and3globalrefinedcopperoutputincreaseby4and25Chinacopperproductionincreaseby38and483Onthedemandsideoverseascopperdemandgraduallyweakenedin2022domesticdemandrecoveredinthesecondhalfIn2023theslowdownofoverseaeconomyisexpectedtocontinueweightonglobalcopperconsumptionwhileChinademandwillbesupportwiththeoptimizationofepidemiccontrolpoliciesThegrowthrateofglobalcopperconsumptionisestimatedtobe24and1in2022and2023inChinawillbe24and31433中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch3铝Aluminum2023年预计铝价或将继续承压一宏观上通胀顽固下美联储态度实质性转向难以出现海外流动性趋紧对铝价构成拖累二供应上2023预计电解铝产量达4269万吨同比增幅提升至65由于2022年产出前高后低2023年产出增速上前低后高三消费上2023年全年角度看消费主版块房地产60光伏88汽车55高压输变电用铝13未锻造铝及铝材的出口-67再加上国内外废铝替代增加-60合计用铝增长79万吨增速约19全年铝需求为4261万吨四供需平衡上低库存及旺季再度去库的预期使得现货坚挺沪铝短端表现优于长端back结构大概率持续至2月份预计3月份以后该结构随着库存变动出现松动预计2023年国内供需过剩量36万吨左右至年底结转铝锭铝棒库存约96万吨五价格节奏上短期受消费季节性转弱及疫情扩散压制铝价面临回调压力但下一个旺季继续去库预期及成本支撑将限制沪铝回调空间中期看国内铝的高供给将弥补消费缺口沪铝有承压风险Aluminumpricemaybeweakin20231OnthemacrosidetheFederalReservemaycontinuewithhighinterestrateduetothestubbornnessofinflationthetighteningofoversealiquiditywilldragonaluminumprice2Onthesupplysideelectrolyticaluminumoutputin2023isexpectedtobe4269milliontonswithayear-on-yeargrowthrateof65Becausetheoutputwashigherinthefirsthalfof2022theannualgrowthratemightbehigherinthesecondhalfof20233Onthedemandsideannualaluminumdemandisforecastedtogrowby19to4261milliontonsin2023The790000tonsdemandgrowthincluderealestate60photovoltaic88automobile55high-voltagepowertransmission13export-67wastealuminumsubstitution-604LowinventoryanddestockingexpectationinthepeakseasonsupportedspotpricetoformthebackwardationstructurewhichmaylastintoFebruaryandeaseinMarch2023aluminumsupplysurplusisestimatedtobe360000tonswithyear-endaluminumingotandbarstockof960000tons5IntheshorttermthefinishofpeakseasonmayweightonpricewithlimiteddownsidespaceduetothelowinventoryInthemediumtermhighsupplygrowthmayoutpacedemandaddingpressureonaluminumprice1533中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch4螺纹钢SteelRebar2023年预计钢材价格重心下移一地产方面商品房销售仍将维持弱势政策在融资端放松或可阶段性减小房企资金压力提升房企的施工竣工能力但仍难以对冲新开工下降带来用钢需求下降二基建方面传统财政政策难维持2022年的支持强度或需要依托准财政政策发力基建增速维持中性增长三制造业与出口方面受海外需求下滑影响国内减税地产销售下滑等因素影响出口与制造业投资仍将维持下降趋势四供给端看2023年粗钢压产的行政性压力较小钢材市场的自主调节能力较强产量或跟随需求波动五由于2023年需求的内生动力仍然较弱地产和基建需求的强度将主要依托于政策的扶持力度需求或呈现前低后高的走势期价或呈现N字型走势强预期引导淡季价格上涨但真实需求难以承接高预期出现价格回落态势全年钢价或重心继续下降In2023steelpriceisexpectedtodrop1InrealestateareascommercialhousingsalesmayremainweakAlthoughthepolicysupportonfinancingsidemayrelievethefinancialpressureimprovetheconstructionandcompletionabilityofrealestateenterprisesitwillbedifficulttooffsetthedeclineinsteeldemandcausedbythedeclineofnewconstruction2Ininfrastructureareastraditionalfiscalpolicysupportmaynotbeenoughrequiringmorequasifiscalpoliciestoachieveaneutralinfrastructuregrowthratein20233Inmanufactureareasduetotheslowdownofoverseasdemanddomesticmanufacturinginvestmentandexportmaycontinuedecline4Onthesupplysidetheadministrativepressureoncrudesteelproductionmaybesmallin2023Steeloutputmaybemainlydeterminedbymarketforceandfluctuatearoundthedemand5Astheendogenousdemandisstillweakin2023realestateandinfrastructuredemandwilldependonthepolicysupportDemandmaybelowinthefirsthalfandincreaseinthesecondhalfthefuturepricemaybeintheNshapeInthefirstquarterthepricemaybestillsupportedbylowinventoryandstrongexpectationiftherealdemandfailstorealizethehighexpectationthesteelpricemayfallagain1633中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch5铁矿石Ironore2023年预计铁矿价格重心下移一2023年海外经济下行稳通胀政策短期难以见效国内地产需求依然偏弱出口承压若铁矿继续维持当前价格则铁矿全年将供给过剩宽松格局难以改变需通过价格重心继续下移进一步压制非主流矿产量来保持供需平衡二需求端预估2023年粗钢表观消费收缩2左右假设废钢供给同比持平体现到铁水端统计局口径生铁总量约同比减少23约下滑2000万吨全球来看铁水产量预计同比下降3左右铁矿需求仍将下滑三供给端2023年预计四大矿山产量同比增加2250万吨非主流矿预计同比减产1800万吨左右预计2023年国内供应同比增加500万吨左右恢复至2021年的水平四长期看在碳达峰碳中和的大背景下随着我国钢铁需求逐步见顶同时废钢对铁水替代效应逐步显现海外经济在2023年即使恢复铁水产量也难再有明显增量全球对铁矿需求或将逐步减少In2023ironorepriceisexpectedtomovedownward1TheoverseainflationcontrollingpolicymaycontributetofurtherslowdownofglobaleconomyDomesticrealestatedemandisstillweakandexportalsofacespressureIftheironorepricemaintainsatcurrentlevelitmayincentivesupplygrowtoasurplusstatewhichinturnleadtopricedroptoachievesupplyanddemandbalance2Onthedemandsidetheapparentconsumptionofcrudesteelisestimatedtoshrinkbyabout2in2023correspondingto23around20milliontonsdeclineofdomesticpigironproductionassumingscrapsteelsupplyunchangedGlobalmoltenironoutputisexpectedtodeclinebyabout3year-on-yearThereforeironoredemandwillcontinuedeclinein20233Onthesupplysidetheoutputofthefourmajorminesisforecastedtoincreaseby225milliontonsin2023whilenonmainstreamproductiondecreasebyabout18milliontonsDomesticsupplymayincreaseby5milliontonstomatchthelevelin20214InthelongrunundertheguidelineofcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralizationChinasteeldemandisgraduallypeakingEveniftheoverseaeconomyrecoversin2023itwillstillbedifficultforthehotmetalproductiontoincreasesignificantlyandtheglobaldemandforironoremaygraduallydecrease1733中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch五农产品Agricultures1生猪LiveHog2023年预计生猪价格存在下行压力一供应方面2022年5月开始能繁母猪存栏环比持续增加按照10个月的产能兑现周期推算2023年3月之后生猪出栏量环比持续增长二需求方面当前社会餐饮消费表现欠佳屠宰利润较差造成屠宰收猪需求较弱但随着防控措施持续优化调整长期看消费不宜过度悲观季节性看上半年淡季为主下半年生猪消费呈现季节性增长特征三总体来看随着产能持续恢复2023年生猪周期将开启下行通道节奏上讲上半年供应恢复初期虽有增量但幅度有限叠加需求淡季预计生猪价格将较为顺畅过度至下行阶段下半年随着2022年四季度养殖利润达到较高水平母猪补栏提速将兑现至2023年下半年生猪出栏压力的进一步增长而需求端有阶级性旺季能够承接部分供给增量因此预计2023年生猪周期将以温和下行为主要趋势Livepigpricemaydecreasein20231IntermsofsupplythenumberofreproduciblesowsonhandhasbeenincreasingsinceMay2022Basedonthe10-monthcapacitydeliverycyclethenumberoflivepigsonhandwillincreaseafterMarch20232IntermsofdemandcurrentsocialcateringconsumptionisweakpoorprofitresultedinlowdemandforpigsHoweverwiththeoptimizationofpandemiccontrolmeasuresconsumptionshouldnotbeoverlypessimisticinthelongrunFromtheseasonalitypointofviewdemandinthefirsthalfoftheyearisrelativelyweakandthepeaktimeusuallyoccursinthesecondhalf3Ingeneralwiththecontinuousrecoveryofproductioncapacitythepigcyclemayenterintodownwardphasein2023AtthebeginningoftheyearwhentheproductionbeginstorecovertheconsumptionisweakinthesecondhalftheproductionwillacceleratewiththeconsumptionincreaseThereforethepigcyclein2023maybecharacterizedbyamoderatedownsidetrend1833中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch2豆粕SoybeanMeal2023年豆粕价格或将承压回落一2022年豆类价格高位运行拉尼娜导致南美产量下降供应增产幅度低于预期而下游需求相对刚性支撑豆粕价格尤其现货基差下半年走势偏强二2023年上中下游的利润分布不均衡达到极致后将逐步回归目前上游高利润推动扩种天气配合下上游原料供应增产落地利于产业链价格从倒挂走向正常中游榨厂亏损局面或可得到改善下游养殖利润窄幅运行在盈亏之间来回切换等待原料降价后在更低产品价格取得合理利润三总体上供给趋增需求小幅回落蛋白粕价格或承压回落宏观方面美国加息放缓但加息周期未结束加息结束时点取决于通胀何时回落需要警惕全球经济衰退的可能人民币贬值预期仍存豆粕跟随外盘同时或强于外盘供应方面美豆单产仍存上调空间南美天气成关键高利润驱动下全球豆类供应改善有望持续需求方面中国消费节后步入淡季豆粕需求周期性走弱Soybeanmealpricesmayfallin20231Globalsoybeanpricerosein2022LaNinacausedproductiondeclineinSorthAmericasupplywaslowerthanexpectedanddemandwasrelativelyrigidsupportedthehighpriceespeciallyspotbasisinthesecondhalfoftheyear2In2023theextremeprofitdistributionalongtheindustrychainmayreturntonormalHighprofitintheupstreampromotedtheexpansionofseedingacreageleadingtohigherproductionassumingnormalweatherconditionIfsoybeancostfallprocessinglossinmidstreammayimproveDownstreamlivestockbreedingprofitislowwhichwouldbenefitfromlowersoybeanmealfeedprice3SoybeanmealpricesmaydropduetohighersupplyandlowerdemandOnthemacrosideUSFedslowsdownbutnotreverseinterestratehikingcycleOverseaeconomyrecessionexpectationmayleadtodemandshrinkageandposepressureoncommoditypriceRMBdevaluationsupporteddomesticsoybeanmealpricerelativestrongerthanoverseasOnthesupplysideSouthAmericasoybeanseedingacreageisexpectedtoincreasetorecordhighNorthAmericasoybeanyieldalsohavepotentialtoimproveOnthedemandsidedomesticconsumptionwillenterintodownsidecyclelowdownstreambreedingprofitmaylimittheportionofsoybeanmealusedinanimalfeed1933中信期货研究CITICFuturesResearch3棕榈油PalmOlein2023年油脂价格或探底回升一2022年上半年地缘冲突和印尼出口控制影响下油脂市场呈现高价高波动的特点棕油领涨领跌主导油脂单边以及价差节奏下半年宏观和产业不共振油脂价格在相对低位区间宽幅震荡二供应端主产区棕油预计在2023年恢复性增产同时出口和国内消费可能同比例增长甚至增幅更大导致库存消费比下降油料尤其大豆种植利润驱动增产变数在于天气考虑拉尼娜气候周期结束厄尔尼诺或中性利于豆类增产三需求端食用消费或见底但增幅有限生柴需求或显著增长棕油凭借印尼B40马来B20需求预增至少30-40豆油制生柴同比增加14关注原油价格及主产国实际生柴生产落地情况四总体上油脂供应增长需求更强绝对价格距离底部不远待宏观加息结束和原油价格底部夯实后油脂或重拾升势Plamoilpriceshavepotentialtoreboundin20231Inthefirsthalfof2022vegetableoilpricewascharacterizedbyhighpriceandhighvolatilityduetotheglobalgeopoliticalconflictandexportcontrolinIndonesiaPlamoilplayedanleadingroleininfluencingothervegeoilperformancePricefluctuatedinlowerrangeinthesecondhalfbecauseoftheoppositeinfluenceofmarcoandindustrialfactors2Onthesupplysidepalmoilproductioninmainproducingareasisexpectedtogrowin2023howeverthegrowthratemaynotbeabletocoverdomesticandexportdemandincreaseintheseareasleadingtothedecreaseofinventorytoconsumptionratioForsoybeanoilhighupstreamprofitmaydrivetheproductiongrowthofsoybeanWeatheristheriskfactortheendofLaNinaclimatewouldbebeneficialtotheincreaseofsoybeansyield3OnthedemandsideedibleoilconsumptionmayreachthebottombutwithlimitedupsidepotentialMeanwhilebiodieseldemandwillgrowsignificantlySupportedbyIndonesiaB40andMalaysiaB20palmoildemandmayincreasebyatleast30-40biodieselfromsoybeanoilmayincreaseby14Thefinalnumberdependsoncrudeoilpriceandrelatedbiofuelpolicyimplementationprogress4OverallvegetableoilproductionwillincreasebutthedemandgrowthmaybestrongerThepricemayriseafterthemacroeconomyandcrudeoilpricebottomed2033