周观点
　　出行:多城本异地出行回暖，国际航班重低位回升。本地出行:从地铁客运量数据看，样本城市中北京、广州、深圳、成都、武汉等14城恢复度表现为回升趋势。异地出行:航空数据看，截至2022/12/22，截至2022/12/31，全国整体客运航班量为2019年同期53%、较12.22低点回升16pct;一线城市北京、上海、深圳均处于回升阶段，分别恢复至19年同期的49%/46%/64%，较22日、24日、24日回升19/12/21pct;国际客运航班量为2019年同期6.7%，仍处于低位，但已处于上升区间，澳门机场客运航班执飞量恢复至2019年同期11%。
　　餐饮:跨年餐饮表现较强，北方代衰城市修复斜率继续变陡，上广深等南方城市过峰后已现明显恢复。凑凑全国晚市店均高峰期等位数在12.31达110+桌，远高于国庆水平，怂火锅全国(截至2023/1/1全国27店)晚市店均高峰期等位数在12.31达330+桌、亦明显超过国庆水平，一线城市北京过峰后周末凑凑、怂火锅等位数据呈现攀升状态，上海、广州、深圳圣诞较平淡，但元旦节均有明显提升，其中凑凑12.31峰值数据于三城均超过国庆水平，怂火锅也基本回归至回落前水平。截至12.25全国歇业率为2.3%(环比上周末-9.7pct)，全国营业额较去年同期恢复度约29%、环比上周回落2pct，其中一/二/三线及以下城市分别恢复至去年同期32%/28%/27%，仍低于上周末水平，边际回暖北京、石家庄、保定、邢台等北方城市餐饮流水在恢复斜率上均呈现进一步变陡趋势。
　　酒旅:元旦跨省游占比上升，高星酒店涨价，主要异地游目的地持续恢复。根据携程12月23日发布的2023元旦假期旅行趋势报告，元旦跨省游占比已近六成，较中秋小长假稳步提升，同比2022年元旦增长34%，跨省团队游同比增长46%，机票、本地门票预订对比中秋增长21%、33%，高星酒店均价同比增长10%。冰雪消费成为热门选择，长白山为例，长春机场12.30客运航班执飞量为19年同期的122%。三亚、云南、厦门、成都等异地游热门目的地客运航班数据均持续恢复至高点分别回升至2019年同期的88%/62%/66%/53%，我们预计随着政策放开和感染过峰，节庆异地游将得到进一步恢复，其中前期更看好K型复苏下高端酒旅弹性。
　　数据及公告跟踪
　　上周(2022/12/25~2022/12/30）沪深300、恒生指数分别+1.1%、+0.96%;社会服务(申万)+1.04%，细分来看，餐饮A股、港股指数分别+8.5%、+O.03%，酒店A股、港股指数分别-4.6%、—0.O6%，景区指数+1.0%，人力服务指数-1.8%。社会服务板块上周涨幅在30个申万一级行业板块中位列第19。
　　投资建议
　　我们认为在防疫政策确定放松情况下线下出行消费将迎来确定性的基本面反转，预计板块恢复次序本地消费先于异地消费，即餐饮>酒店>旅游，出境游更多受政策催化，建议综合考虑修复次序、业绩弹性、增量看点及估值性价比进行阶段式布局，其中更早修复板块优先考虑业绩确定性和α层面逻辑。近期数据看，全国多地发热指数已过峰值,线下消费数据已现回暖。本地餐饮方面，元旦数据区别于圣诞，上海、深圳、广州等也已现明显回暖，凑凑、怂火锅晚市高峰期等位数据超过国庆水平或回升到此前正常水平，南方城市拐点出现后我们预计全国整体餐饮数据将有明显好转，目前看2023开年餐饮恢复势头较为强劲。酒旅方面，携程数据显示本次元旦跨省游订单占比约60%(国庆本地游65%)，预计随着政策放开和感染过峰，节庆异地游将得到进一步恢复，其中更看好前期K型复苏下高端酒旅结构性机会。
　　本周投资组合:呷哺呷哺、九毛九、复星旅文、中青旅、同庆楼。
　　风险提示
　　疫情反复，原材料价格上涨，劳动力短缺风险，海外宏观经济衰退风险等。
　　

研究报告全文：2023年1月1日买入维持评级社会服务业行业研究行业周报证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师苏晨执业S1130522010001联系人叶思嘉suchengjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn元旦数据有亮点餐饮修复或迎全国拐点-01234567892-ABCDECFGCHICJKLMNOPQRS5TU60V-WXYZYYYYY-WXYZYYY-9012SYZabcdeCfYgYY3h5ijklmnoABCpqCFGrst5uv-wxNOXabcyMeMieiMe-fYYzCYMzCYMz5YYjklm9012SYZabcige-st34-stp5-9012NOXYZabce6aQRf-AQO-pDFLRNO6rcL4YgZ-t-WXYZYYrcL4YgZC-noABCL4R5-pqCDECFGf-r5-Ygtr-X6WXYgYdSYgepgjkl-fabcNOPYeCpYjkl-nowxNOXabcYeYeYe-3tp-ABCCCLANOprRnTU6p5--yNO6YYzyYZYcTU-H-f5-bYZYYaMe-bMie-CYeCe-rbZe6HS-S-YgZ9012SabcyYYe6CCCHILy901rNOXhwx5XYZabcyeiYeiiede--012345678-9nNO-cOABC6pYZYYYYdDYZYYYZEFZZCFGHwxgeCZgiemIJKLMNgZMe-OwP-QRCSRHwxgdeCZgZe-QRCSRHwxMgieCZgZie-THgZe-UVKLHge6IJKLWXpYZZMNnWX46-S23a4bcdo9ePaCyfgh-WXNOijkt-lmm-no23pq-rstuvwOijCxBCC2hyCuvz-OWXkvwxaC6f6c-H-oR6f-xt-pqCFGCDELR-CcL45-hR-9h-YZY5aNOUfS6f-iiZeide-012345678-9nNO-cOACJ6uCCOCCb6cgO-p-V-qL6CNOf-OeChgggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggMgChOePCh-HCAgggggggggggggggMgYC-012345gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggMgCaQRf-pDFLRNOgggggggggggggggggggggggggggdgMCp5-yNOgggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYCcggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggZChpyggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggMCggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQ892NOPeYZbcggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggMQY9012NOPeYZ-XYZYYYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggdQAB9012NOP5eYZXYZYYYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggdQMpq9012NOP5eYZ-XYZYYYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggdQdFG9012NOP5eYZXYZYYYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggdQi9012NOPeYZ-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-XYZYYYgggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQY9012NOP5eYZXYZYYYgggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYQY9012NOP5eYZ-XYZYYYgggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQYHI9012NOP5eYZXYZYYYgggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQZiXYZYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQpWXYcdggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggZQYpWXYUggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggZQpWXYUggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggZQMpTWXYUggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggZQdpUVKLWXYUggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggZQipYjggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQpYCYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQpYCYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggQpTYCYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYQMZpUVKLZRYggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYQMpggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYQMYpggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggYQMhpyQgggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg1gChOePCh-HCA-yYZYaP3TU--YZYa--S23a4bcdo9ePaCyfgh-WXNOijqfSn-kt-lmm-no23pq6cNOywqCALcd9cCcRf-cJmchxRaCCHyy6rstuvwOijCxBCC2hyCuvz-OWXkvwxaC6f67c-H-oR6f-yAABCCCLNOprRnTU-RpPm7-xtQR-pqCFGCDELR-CcL45-hR-9h-YZY5aNOUfS6f-iiZeide-SS-YgZ9012SabcyYYe-CCCHILy901rNOXhwx5XYZabcyeiYeiiede--012345678-9nNO-cOACJ6uCCOCCb6gYC-0123457892-ABCDECFGCHICJKLMNOPQRS5TU-ABNOXYZabcMe-pqCECCLMstTU6Q892NOPeYZbc上海北京广州深圳成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆长沙合肥石家庄昆明厦门南宁东莞2022-12-292834414699305447343558NANANANANANANA2022-12-282631384096275142323256775854629050262022-12-2726293538912448373329537355505811446262022-12-2627263339862345333526506952465414542272022-12-25282431437922412938234667NANANANANANA2022-12-2429232946762338284121446650394721240302022-12-2331222850722536274519416853364422942332022-12-2237192758673032285318377460334225148372022-12-2143182868633629326118358170304027155402022-12-2049163075634226386719338881273929863432022-12-1956153382654925457521329893254032772462022-12-186314368770552553822332108106234233878482022-12-176614389274592658872533116114224634684522022-12-166915419779622864902834125122225035690552022-12-1574174510090653271933136133131225536392572022-12-1476194810298663775943438136135236036490582022-12-137821491041056541789536391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