钢材：05合约维持薄贴水，结构适合贸易商套保。钢材冬储有序推进，钢厂政策以后结算为主，总体立场较为坚定，优惠力度明显弱于去年。供应端，钢厂利润边际小幅改善但维持亏损，叠加短流程钢厂陆续放假，产量在年前预计难有改善空间。短期内市场供需双弱，矛盾有限。下周海外宏观数据/事件极为密集，预计市场价格将继续受宏观数据牵引宽幅波动
　　铁矿：钢材冬储有序推进，铁矿冬储仍未完成，预计短期内后续铁矿采购活跃度稳中有升。供应端大型矿山年底冲量，发货短期或将维持高位。铁矿库存后续或将小幅攀升，垒库速度符合季节性。总体供需情况持稳，矛盾有限。下周海外宏观数据/事件极为密集，预计市场价格将继续受宏观数据牵引宽幅波动
　　交易策略：
　　单边：建议观望，激进者可轻仓试空05螺纹逻辑：下周海外宏观数据/事件极为密集，建议回避为主；宏观或已利多出尽
　　风险点：1，宏观政策、数据超预期
　　套利：建议观望逻辑：下周海外宏观数据/事件极为密集，价差位置中性，建议回避为主
　　风险点：1，终端需求超预期变化2，宏观政策、数据超预期

研究报告全文：期货研究报告商品研究招商期货钢材铁矿周报宏观牵引仍将持续2022年12月26日-2022年12月31日研究员-赵嘉瑜联系电话18818212580联系人-游洋CFA联系电话13426249707zhaojiayucmschinacomcn执业资格号Z0016776youyangcmschinacomcn2023年1月1日01价格回顾02基本面数据回顾目录contents03主要事件回顾及下周概览04结论与策略推荐01价格回顾华东华北螺纹现货本周涨60100元吨期货贴水华东本周下降40元吨华北持平维持历史同期最低杭州螺纹现货螺纹活跃合约收盘价螺纹期货贴水华东右轴螺纹期货贴水华东6500900100020182019202020212022600070080055005005000600300450040040001002003500-10003000-300-200Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-21Jan-22Jan-20010203040506070809101112Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-22Mar-20Mar-21May-20May-21May-22天津螺纹现货螺纹活跃合约收盘价螺纹期货贴水华北右轴螺纹期货贴水华北1400700090020182019202020212022650012006000700100055005008005000300600450010040040002003500-1003000-3000-200Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-21Jan-20Jan-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-22Mar-21Mar-20010203040506070809101112May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货热卷华东华北现货本周分别涨9030元吨期货贴水华东本周下降8元吨维持历史同期最低热卷期货贴水华东上海热卷现货热卷活跃合约收盘价热卷期货贴水华东右轴7500800201820192020202120227000900650070060060005005500400500030020045001004000-100035003000-300-200010203040506070809101112Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-21May-22May-20热卷期货贴水华北1000天津热卷现货热卷活跃合约收盘价热卷期货贴水华北右轴2018201920202021202270009008006500600070060055005004005000300450010040002003500-10003000-300-200Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-21May-22May-20010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货PB超特现货本周分别上涨3329元吨期货贴水分别下降26元吨最优交割品为IOC6BRBF青岛PB粉现货铁矿石活跃合约收盘价铁矿期货合约贴水PB粉右轴PBRmbt铁矿期货贴水粉1900600600202020212022170050050015004004001300300110030020090020070010010050000Jul-21Jul-22Jul-20010203040506070809101112Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-20May-21May-22青岛超特粉现货铁矿石活跃合约收盘价铁矿期货合约贴水超特粉右轴Rmbt铁矿期货贴水超特粉350155035020202021202213503003002501150250200200950150150750100100550505035000Jul-21Jul-20Jul-22Jan-21Jan-22Jan-20010203040506070809101112Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货螺纹15价差环比增41元吨铁矿15价差环比下降11元吨螺纹一月五月价差热卷一月五月价差元吨16011701180119011601170118011901元吨2001210122012301200121012201230160060050050040040030030020020010010000-100-100-200-200-300-30005060708091011120506070809101112铁矿一月五月价差焦炭一月五月价差16011701180119011601170118011901元吨元吨20012101220123012001210122012301200800700150600500100400503002000100-500-100-10005060708091011120506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货螺纹铁矿59510价差周度环比基本持平热卷焦炭价差小增元吨螺纹五月十月价差元吨热卷五月十月价差600500160517051805190516051705180519055002005210522052305400200521052205230540030030020020010010000-100-100-200-2001011120102030410111201020304元吨铁矿五月九月价差焦炭五月九月价差元吨16051705180519052001605170518051905400200521052205230520052105220523051503001002001005000-100-50-2001011120102030410111201020304数据来源WIND招商期货海外黑色各品种价格涨幅略小于国内价格进口亏损出口利润缩窄美元吨热卷出口利润人民币吨美元吨1500钢坯进口利润1150东南亚-中国价差右轴中国出口离岸价东南亚到岸价10080印度钢坯进口利润独联体钢坯进口利润1050100060950405008502075000650-20-40550-500-60450-80350-100-1000Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22May-22May-20May-21Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Sep-18Nov-18Sep-19Nov-19Sep-20Nov-20Sep-21Nov-21Sep-22Nov-22May-18May-19May-20May-21May-22人民币吨废钢进口利润人民币吨4500600美元吨日照港铁矿进口利润进口利润右轴张家港重废PB粉卡粉日本重废到岸价人民币价2043004001541002001039000537003500-20003300-5-4003100-10-6002900-152700-800-202500-1000Jul-21Jul-22Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jan-21Jun-21Jan-22Jun-22Mar-21Mar-22Feb-21Feb-22Nov-21Dec-21Nov-22Dec-22Aug-21Sep-21Aug-22Sep-22May-21May-22Jul-21Jul-22Oct-21Oct-22Apr-21Apr-22Jan-21Jun-21Jan-22Jun-22Feb-21Mar-21Feb-22Mar-22Aug-21Sep-21Nov-21Dec-21Aug-22Sep-22Nov-22Dec-22May-21May-22数据来源MysteelWIND招商期货02基本面数据回顾三十城新房销售环比上升65同比上升1m2万统计局三十城新房销售5日平均12020182019202020212022x001x100806040200010203040506070809101112万m2统计局三十城新房销售三线城市5日平均035201820192020202120220302502015010050010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货百城土地销售同比上升2环比升13百万平方米百城土地销售3周平均100201820192020202120229080706050403020100010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货建材日度成交环比下降6建材成交五日平均全国建材成交五日平均华东大区万吨万吨30201820192020202120221620182019202020212022281526142413221220111810169148127106010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112建材成交五日平均华北大区建材成交五日平均华南大区万吨万吨62018201920202021202210201820192020202120229584736254130010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货杭州出库周度环比基本持平成交出库比投机度维持高位杭州螺纹出库5日平均中天口径万吨620182019202020212022543210010203040506070809101112华东大区成交杭州螺纹出库比值30日平均杭州螺纹价格中天HRB400E20mm右轴人民币吨65650066000555500545500044500354000335002523000Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Sep-20Sep-19Sep-21Sep-22May-19May-20May-21May-22数据来源Mysteel招商期货调坯轧螺纹利润华东环比下降10元吨同比低约200元吨螺纹调坯轧材利润华东人民币吨800201820192020202120227006005004003002001000-100-200010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货焊管利润华北维持历年同期中等水平焊管利润华北人民币吨2018201920202021202210008006004002000-200-400010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货乘联会乘用车三周均值销售环比下降3411月底经销商库存环比上月继续小幅上升接近疫情后新高乘用车销售三周平均万辆252018201920202021202220151050010203040506070809101112汽车经销商库存系数240220200180160140120100Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Sep-18Nov-20Nov-18Sep-19Nov-19Sep-20Sep-21Nov-21Sep-22Nov-22May-18May-19May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货钢材表观消费季节性下降万吨万吨螺纹表需长材表需螺纹线材5507002018201920202021202220182019202020212022500650450600400550350500300450250400200150350100300502500200010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112万吨万吨热卷表需板材表需热卷冷卷中厚板3706002018201920202021202220182019202020212022580350560540330520310500480290460440270420250400010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货表观消费情况五大材汇总环比下降29万吨至8744万吨五大材总表需万吨1600201820192020202120221400120010008006004002000010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货螺纹长材库存加速垒库垒库速度接近历年同期高点螺纹总库存长材总库存万吨万吨24002018201920202021202234002018201920202021202222002900200018002400160014001900120014001000800900600400400010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112螺纹总库存环比长材总库存环比20201820192020202120222020182019202020212022151510105500-5-5-10-10-15-15010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货