研究报告全文：期货研究报告商品研究招商期货钢材铁矿周报投机交易冷却价格或有回调2022年12月19日-2022年12月23日研究员-赵嘉瑜联系电话18818212580联系人-游洋CFA联系电话13426249707zhaojiayucmschinacomcn执业资格号Z0016776youyangcmschinacomcn2022年12月25日01价格回顾02基本面数据回顾目录contents03主要事件回顾及下周概览04结论与策略推荐01价格回顾华东华北螺纹现货本周涨20跌40元吨期货贴水华东本周显著增加64元吨杭州螺纹现货螺纹活跃合约收盘价螺纹期货贴水华东右轴螺纹期货贴水华东6500900100020182019202020212022600070080055005005000600300450040040001002003500-10003000-300-200Jul-21Jul-20Jul-22Jan-21Jan-22Jan-20010203040506070809101112Sep-22Sep-20Sep-21Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-20May-21May-22天津螺纹现货螺纹活跃合约收盘价螺纹期货贴水华北右轴螺纹期货贴水华北1400700090020182019202020212022650012006000700100055005008005000300600450010040040002003500-1003000-3000-200Jul-21Jul-20Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Sep-22Sep-20Sep-21Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-21Mar-22Mar-20010203040506070809101112May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货热卷华东华北现货本周分别跌5060元吨期货贴水华东本周上升10元吨热卷期货贴水华东上海热卷现货热卷活跃合约收盘价热卷期货贴水华东右轴7500800201820192020202120227000900650070060060005005500400500030020045001004000-100035003000-300-200010203040506070809101112Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-20May-22May-21热卷期货贴水华北1000天津热卷现货热卷活跃合约收盘价热卷期货贴水华北右轴2018201920202021202270009008006500600070060055005004005000300450010040002003500-10003000-300-200Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-21May-22May-20010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货PB超特现货本周分别跌23元吨期货贴水分别下降67元吨最优交割品为MACFBRBF青岛PB粉现货铁矿石活跃合约收盘价铁矿期货合约贴水PB粉右轴PBRmbt铁矿期货贴水粉1900600600202020212022170050050015004004001300300110030020090020070010010050000Jul-21Jul-22Jul-20010203040506070809101112Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-20May-21May-22青岛超特粉现货铁矿石活跃合约收盘价铁矿期货合约贴水超特粉右轴Rmbt铁矿期货贴水超特粉350155035020202021202213503003002501150250200200950150150750100100550505035000Jul-20Jul-22Jul-21Jan-21Jan-22Jan-20010203040506070809101112Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Nov-20Nov-22Nov-21Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货近端较强螺纹热卷15价差环比分别小增2113元吨铁矿15价差环比下降13元吨螺纹一月五月价差热卷一月五月价差元吨160117011801190116011701180119012001210122012301元吨20012101220123016002005001504003001002005010000-100-50-200-300-10005060708091011120506070809101112铁矿一月五月价差焦炭一月五月价差16011701180119011601170118011901元吨元吨200121012201230120012101220123016008005007004006003005002004001003000200-100100-2000-300-10005060708091011120506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货黑色品种59510价差周度环比基本持平元吨螺纹五月十月价差元吨热卷五月十月价差600500160517051805190516051705180519055002005210522052305400200521052205230540030030020020010010000-100-100-200-2001011120102030410111201020304元吨铁矿五月九月价差焦炭五月九月价差元吨16051705180519052001605170518051905400200521052205230520052105220523051503001002001005000-100-50-2001011120102030410111201020304数据来源WIND招商期货海外黑色各品种价格涨幅略小于国内价格进口亏损缩窄热卷出口利润人民币吨美元吨美元吨1500钢坯进口利润1150东南亚-中国价差右轴中国出口离岸价东南亚到岸价100印度钢坯进口利润独联体钢坯进口利润105080100060950405008502075000650-20-40550-60-500450-80350-100-1000Jul-22Jul-20Jul-21Jul-19Jul-18Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-22Jan-20Jan-21Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Apr-18Oct-18Apr-19Oct-19Apr-20Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22May-21May-20May-22人民币吨废钢进口利润人民币吨4500600美元吨日照港铁矿进口利润进口利润右轴张家港重废PB粉卡粉日本重废到岸价人民币价2043004001541002003900103700053500-20003300-5-4003100-10-6002900-152700-800-202500-1000Jul-21Jul-22Oct-22Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Jan-21Jun-21Jan-22Jun-22Mar-21Mar-22Feb-22Feb-21Nov-21Dec-21Nov-22Dec-22Aug-21Sep-21Aug-22Sep-22Jul-21Jul-22May-21May-22Oct-21Apr-21Apr-22Oct-22Jan-21Jun-21Jan-22Jun-22Mar-21Mar-22Feb-21Feb-22Nov-21Dec-21Nov-22Dec-22Aug-21Sep-21Aug-22Sep-22May-21May-22数据来源MysteelWIND招商期货02基本面数据回顾三十城新房销售环比下降11同比下降42m2万统计局三十城新房销售5日平均12020182019202020212022x001x100806040200010203040506070809101112万m2统计局三十城新房销售三线城市5日平均035201820192020202120220302502015010050010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货百城土地销售同比上升21环比升6百万平方米百城土地销售3周平均100201820192020202120229080706050403020100010203040506070809101112数据来源WIND招商期货建材日度成交环比下降23建材成交五日平均全国建材成交五日平均华东大区万吨万吨30201820192020202120221620182019202020212022281526142413221220111810169148127106010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112建材成交五日平均华北大区建材成交五日平均华南大区万吨万吨62018201920202021202210201820192020202120229584736254130010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货杭州出库周度环比基本持平成交出库比投机度维持高位杭州螺纹出库5日平均中天口径万吨620182019202020212022543210010203040506070809101112华东大区成交杭州螺纹出库比值30日平均杭州螺纹价格中天HRB400E20mm右轴人民币吨6565006060005555005045500040450035400030350025203000Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-22Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Sep-19Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22May-19May-20May-21May-22数据来源Mysteel招商期货调坯轧材利润华东边际上升70元吨同比低约200元吨螺纹调坯轧螺纹利润华东人民币吨800201820192020202120227006005004003002001000-100-200010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货焊管利润华北维持历年同期中等水平焊管利润华北人民币吨2018201920202021202210008006004002000-200-400010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货乘联会乘用车销售环比下降211月底经销商库存环比上月继续小幅上升接近疫情后新高乘用车销售三周平均万辆252018201920202021202220151050010203040506070809101112汽车经销商库存系数240220200180160140120100Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Sep-22Sep-18Nov-18Sep-19Nov-19Sep-20Nov-20Sep-21Nov-21Nov-22May-18May-19May-20May-21May-22数据来源WIND招商期货钢材表观消费季节性下降万吨万吨螺纹表需长材表需螺纹线材5507002018201920202021202220182019202020212022500650450600400550350500300450250400200150350100300502500200010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112万吨万吨热卷表需板材表需热卷冷卷中厚板3706002018201920202021202220182019202020212022580350560540330520310500480290460440270420250400010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货表观消费情况五大材汇总环比下降631万吨至9034万吨五大材总表需万吨15002018201920202021202214001300120011001000900800700600500010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货螺纹长材库存在期现投机需求冷却后重新上升螺纹总库存长材总库存万吨万吨24002018201920202021202234002018201920202021202222002000290018002400160014001900120010001400800900600400400010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112螺纹总库存环比长材总库存环比20182019202020212022202020182019202020212022151510105500-5-5-10-10-15-15010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112数据来源Mysteel招商期货