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>> 五矿期货-农产品期权日报-221222
上传日期:   2022/12/22 大小:   1296KB
格式:   pdf  共12页 来源:   五矿期货
评级:   -- 作者:   卢品先
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【基本面信息】
  大豆:美国农业部发布的出口检验周报显示,截至2022年12月15日的一周,美国大豆出口检验量为1619850吨,较一周前减少13.8%,比去年同期减少15.2%。美国对中国(大陆地区)装运1109604吨大豆,比一周前减少4.8%。
  白糖:制糖集团报价小幅变动,南宁报5650(0),与盘面基差-48。消费未有明显放量,购销以节前刚性需求为主。11月国内进口73万吨,同比增加10.26万吨。国内进口仍偏高,甘蔗糖进入压榨高峰,整体供应充足。
  棕榈油:南马来西亚棕榈油公会(SPOMMA)的数据显示,2022年12月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少6.73%。其中鲜果串单产环比减少6.00%,出油率(OER)减少0.14%。拉尼娜现象导致雨季暴雨和洪水风险高企,可能阻碍印尼和马来西亚的鲜果串收获,影响到11月和12月份的棕榈油生产
研究报告全文:农产品期权日报期权研究2022年12月22日星期四基本面信息大豆美国农业部发布的出口检验周报显示截至2022年12月15日的一周美国大豆出口检验量为1619850吨较一周前减少138比去年同期减少152美国对中国大陆地区装运1109604吨大豆比一周前减少48白糖制糖集团报价小幅变动南宁报56500与盘面基差-48消费未有明显放量购销以节前刚性需求为主11月国内进口73万吨同比增加1026万吨国内进口仍偏高甘蔗糖进入压榨高峰整卢品先体供应充足投研经理棕榈油南马来西亚棕榈油公会SPOMMA的数据显示2022年12月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比0755-23375252减少673其中鲜果串单产环比减少600出油率OER减少014拉尼娜现象导致雨季暴雨和洪水lupxwkjyqhcom风险高企可能阻碍印尼和马来西亚的鲜果串收获影响到11月和12月份的棕榈油生产从业资格号期权分析及操作建议F30473211玉米期权交易咨询号玉米C2303高位回落后连续三周以来的空头弱势下行本周以来加速下跌涨幅058报收于2758期Z0015541权隐含波动率上升019报收于1121期权持仓量PCR报收于084操作建议玉米C2303形成空头破位下行本周以来加速下跌期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR小幅波动构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益或方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如C2303SC2303-P-272010SC2303-P-274010和SC2303-C-278010SC2303-C-2760102豆粕期权豆粕M2203延续一个月以来的多头趋势方向震荡上行温和上涨上周高位回落连续下跌止跌于55天均线而后逐渐反弹回暖上升涨幅065报收于4045豆粕期权隐含波动率上升053报收于1966期权持仓量PCR快速上升报收于190操作建议豆粕止跌反弹回暖后延续偏多头市场行情格局期权隐含波动率小幅上升期权持仓量PCR有所回落构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速回落大跌则逐渐平仓离场如M2303SM2303-P-400010SM2303-P-405010和SM2303-C-405010SM2303-C-4100103棕榈油期权棕榈油P2302维持近两周以来的空头压力的弱势盘整震荡涨幅097报收于7700期权隐含波动率小幅下降101至2984持仓量PCR窄幅波动报收于068操作建议棕榈油P2302空头压力下低位弱势盘整期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR小幅下降构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大跌或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如P2302SP2302-C-770010SP2302-C-780010和SP2302-P-760010SP2302-P-7700104白糖期权白糖SR303低位反弹V型反转后连续六天报收阳线突破11月以来高点而后高位盘整震荡跌幅007报收于5742期权隐含波动率下降017至1197期权持仓量PCR报收于060操作建议白糖SR2303短期多头趋势方向上高位盘整震荡期权隐含波动率小幅下降期权持仓量PCR小幅上升仍维持在较低水平构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如SR303SSR303-C-580010SSR303-C-590010和SSR303-P-570010SSR303-P-5600105棉花期权棉花CF303延续一个半月以来偏多头上行温和上涨趋势涨幅061报收于14085棉花期权隐含波动率下降061报收于2208持仓量PCR窄幅波动报收于067操作建议棉花CF303延续近一个月多月以来的震荡上行温和上涨棉花期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR小幅上升仍维持较低水平构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如CF2303SCF2303P13800SCF2303P14000和SCF2303C14400SCF2303C14200市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CC23032758001600058440012065MM230340450026000655612255PP230277000074000971631240SRSR2303574200-400-007215412380CFCF2303140850085000615854094RMRM23032994002100071286850数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日C23032760340049002745-2050-074-1300542023-02-13M23034050100001155040354200105-1050542023-02-13P23027700192502030076907450098-1050202023-01-10SR2303570011500655057502600045750442023-02-03CF23031400039500326001406919400140-1600442023-02-03RM2303300076501035029733400116-2100442023-02-03数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWC2303119410491121019113312241042M2303193719901966053206922131925P2302286430912984-101311632542979SR2303115812381197-017127213821162CF2303217822552208-061220923522066RM2303222225702381-034254427172371数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化C230338991394021010068692173440084-007M23032108624629117-0254663188519190006P230232976369451120103747625460068-001SR230322229213430960295537333336060002CF23033009918618062-0104852832594067004RM23031516412795084-0501366914336105-008数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1玉米主力合约走势图320070成交量万收盘价310060300050290040280027450030270020260010250002022-08-122022-11-012022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-21图2豆粕主力合约走势图4600300成交量万收盘价440025042004034002004000380015036001003400503200300002022-08-012022-09-072022-10-242022-11-302022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-21图3白糖主力合约走势图620050成交量万收盘价6100456000405900355760003058002557002056001555001054005530002022-08-222022-11-092022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-21图4棉花主力合约走势图20600100成交量万收盘价196009018600801760070601660050156001407500401460030136002012600101160002022-08-122022-11-012022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-21图5菜粕主力合约走势图成交量万收盘价1604400140400012010036008030280032006040280020240002022-08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212002200022800OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC棉花期权最大未平仓棉花认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价24000220002000018000160001400012000100002022-08-042022-10-142022-11-172022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-21棉花期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓棉花期权持仓量PCR棉花期权隐含波动率OIPCRCLOSE11020200601001920050090182004008017200300701407500162000601520020050142001004013200003012200020112002022-08-252022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-172022-09-022022-09-132022-09-212022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-132022-06-302022-07-122022-07-222022-08-032022-08-152022-08-252022-09-062022-09-192022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-06-20IMPVMA20UPLOW菜粕期权持仓分布菜粕期权持仓分布图菜粕期权持仓变化图25006004002000200150001000-200500-4000232523252375242524752550265027502850295030503150325033503450355022752275-600237523752275227523252425247525502650275028502950305031503250335034503550OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC菜粕期权最大未平仓菜粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价4400400036003200280024002022-07-142022-10-192022-11-222022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-21菜粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓菜粕期权持仓量PCR菜粕期权隐含波动率454404800OIPCRCLOSE4038044003203540002603036002002530280032001402008028000202400152022-08-172022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-252022-09-022022-09-132022-09-212022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-10-242022-11-022022-06-202022-06-292022-07-082022-07-192022-07-282022-08-082022-08-172022-08-262022-09-062022-09-162022-09-272022-10-132022-11-112022-11-222022-12-012022-12-122022-12-21IMPVMA20UPLOW棕榈油期权持仓分布棕榈油期权持仓分布图棕榈油期权持仓变化图8000800700060060004005000200400003000-20020001000-4000-6001000010000100001000010600112001180012400130001060011200118001240013000640064008500580058006100670070007300760079008200880091009400970058006100640067007000730076007900820085008800910094009700OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC棕榈油期权最大未平仓棕榈油认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价13000120001100010000900080007000600050002022-08-042022-10-142022-11-172022-06-202022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-21棕榈油期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓棕榈油期权持仓量PCR棕榈油期权隐含波动率6020013000OIPCR55CLOSE120005011000451404010000359000300808000257000201502060002022-08-172022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-252022-09-022022-09-132022-09-212022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-06-202022-06-292022-07-082022-07-192022-07-282022-08-082022-08-172022-08-262022-09-062022-09-162022-09-272022-10-132022-10-242022-11-022022-11-112022-11-222022-12-012022-12-122022-12-21IMPVMA20UPLOW免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068上海分公司成都分公司上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦902903成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层12041205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州营业部湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广场12层A1210室电话020-29117582电话0759-2856220天津营业部西安营业部天津市滨海高新区华苑产业区梅苑路5号金座广场2101-陕西省西安市新城区纬什街新科路1号楼一层2102电话029-87572985电话022-23778878宁波中山西路营业部重庆营业部浙江省宁波市海曙区布政巷16号12楼1205室重庆市江北区江北城西大街25号11-1电话0574-87330527电话023-67078086郑州营业部南通营业部郑州市未来路69号未来大厦16层1612号江苏省南通市青年东路81号南通大饭店B楼财富中心2003室电话0371-65619030电话0513-81026105杭州民心路营业部台州爱华路营业部浙江省杭州市江干区万银大厦1408室浙江省台州市椒江区爱华新台州大厦8-A电话0571-81969926电话0576-89811511济南营业部昆明营业部山东省济南市历下区山大路201号天业科技商务大厦401云南省昆明市盘龙区北京路612号银海国际公寓D座3201室427室电话0871-63338532电话0531-83192255大连营业部唐山营业部辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路大连国际金融中心A座大连期河北省唐山市路北区军鑫里凤城国贸1楼21层2104号货大厦2001号电话0315-5936395电话0411-84800452武汉营业部湖北省武汉市江岸区三阳路8号天悦星辰A栋26楼2602室电话0755-23375007
 
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