研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary10Oct2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报Flowswereactivetwo-waythismorningBuyingflowsonSOEPerpsAT1GlennKoCFA高志和wereactivepostratesdownLGFVswereunderbetterbuyingwhilereal85236576235estaterelatednameswereweakIGspacewasrelativelystablewithbuyingglennkocmbicomhkinterestsonfront-endbondsCAPGCounthearingstoconveneschememeetingson31Oct23CAPGswereunchangedto01ptlowerthismorningSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkCOGARDOffshoreholisticdebtrestructuringisonthewayCOGARDswereunchangedthismorningSeebelowJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiaex-JPIGspacehadaquietsessionduetoHKtyphoonandUSJPKRholidayandspreadswerelargelyunchangedThefront-endofIGsweresoughtafterbycashparkingdemandon23spapersInChinesefinancialsAMCsweremixedCCAMCL24s25sweretradedinactivemixedtwo-wayflowsHRINTH25s29swereunderbettersellingbuttherestofthecurvewasunchangedto05ptshigherChineseAT1swerefirmwhilstThaiEuropeanAT1sremainedundersellingfromPBsChineseSOEsTMTswerestableBABATENCNT24swerebetterbidInHKIGsCKHHHKAA33stightened3-5bpsHKCorpperpspaceperformedmixedNWDEVLPerpswere1-24ptshigherNWSannouncedonlastFridaythatallthepre-conditionsundertheHKD915shareconditionalvoluntarygeneralcashofferfromCTFEhavebeensatisfiedCKINFPerpswere05-1ptlowerHKChinesepropertieswerefirmYLLGSP24sSHUION23swereup05ptDALWAN26CHJMAO29swereup14-19ptsLNGFOR27-29sclosedaround15ptshigherCOGARDsROADKGswereunchangedto02pthigherOntheotherhandCSCHCN24sAGILE25swereamongtheexceptionstobemarkeddown15-25ptsInindustrialsAACTECswereup05ptHoweverWESCHI26sweredown03ptMoodysdowngradedtheratingsofWESCHItoBa3fromBa2andmaintainedthenegativeoutlookMacaugamingnamesweremutedInIndianspaceVEDLNsweredown05ptIndonesiannamesLMRTSP24s26swere05-1pthigherElsewhereGLPCHI26sweredown175ptsBeforecloseMONMINannouncedthatitwillredeemalloutstandingofitsdue-2024sinfullat102313on8NovMONMIN24closedunchangedtoatouchhigherTheLGFVPerpspaceshadalesseventfulsessionthanexpectedupononshoreChineseclientsreturnfromlongholidayWesawtheflowsskewedtobetterbuyinginSOEperpswhileloosebondswereroughlydigestedCHPWCN425PerpHUADIA4PerpCHSCOI34Perpwere01pthigherTheLGFVflowsweremixedthe6-handlepapersweretradedintwo-wayflowsskewedtobettersellingwhiletheLGFVbondsyielding7orabovePLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk110Oct2023remainedbettersought-afterInthehigher-yieldingLGFVsKMRLGPGSHIAV24swereup03-06ptShandongnamesSHGUOH25sSHDOIS24sweredown01-03ptZHONANSUNSHG26swere05pthigherFRESHK25swereup03ptLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeNWDEVL514PERP66924CSCHCN9062624459-23DALWAN1102132636919GLPCHI295032926616-18NWDEVL614PERP55016AGILE512042125128-14LNGFOR39509162949615CKINF485PERP736-09CHJMAO41407232963414CKINF4PERP610-08MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP063Dow059andNasdaq039reversedtheinitialdroponMondayCrudeoilpricesreboundedc5sincemiddleeastconflictescalatedWTIBrentcrudeoilpricesreachedUSD862880perbarrelTheUSTyieldswerechangedyesterdayduetoUSholiday251030yieldstayedat508475478495respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点CAPGCounthearingstoconveneschememeetingson31Oct23AoyuanfinallyprovidedupdatesonthenextstepsandconsentlevelsforthedebtrestructuringplansincetheRSAextendedRSAdeadlineon31Aug23OvernightAoyuansentthePracticeStatementLettertoinformcreditorsonitsintentiontoformallyproposethedebtrestructureplanSeeourdetaileddiscussionsinourcommenton3Jul23thecourthearingson31Oct23mainlytoseekthepermissiontoconveneschememeetingsAsat9Oct23over72ofholdersofICAdebtsinvalueandover22holdersofnon-ICAdebtsinvaluehaveaccededtotheRSARecalledthattherequisiteapprovalthresholdsforbothAddHeroandAoyuanschemesare75invalueIntheAddHeroschememeetingonlyICAholderswillbeeligibletovoteIntheAoyuanschememeetingbothICAandnon-ICAholderswillbeeligibletovoteICAholdersaccountforc23ofthetotalclaimsintheAoyuanschemeHencethecreditorsoftheAoyuanschemehaveaccededtoRSAisc55BothschemesareconditionaluponeachotherDespitetheconsentlevelofAoyuanschemeremains20shortofthethresholdwebelievetheroomformaterialsweeteningofthedebtrestructuringplantobesmallgiventheweakpropertysalesAdditionallyAoyuanhasfulfilledtheconditionsforsharetradingresumptionsuchasfilingofauditedfinancialsandwasabletoresumethetradingofitsshareon25Sep23Aoyuanisnolongerunderdelistingpressureinthenear-termCOGARDOffshoreholisticdebtrestructuringisonthewayCountryGardenhasnotpaidtheprincipalamountofHKD470mnundercertainofitsindebtednessandexpectsthatitwillnotbeabletomeetallofitsoffshorepaymentobligationswhendueorwithintherelevantgraceperiodsInadditionithasengagedfinancialandlegaladvisorstoformulateaholisticsolutionTheoutstanding210Oct2023principalamountof15offshorebondsisUSD99bnCurrentlyCOGARDhastwooverdueUSDbondcouponstotaledUSD554mnIthasanothertwoUSDbondcouponstotaledUSD668mnduenextweekThelastcouponpaymentwasmadeon5SeprelatingtothetwoUSDcouponsmissedinAugOntheotherhandCOGARDhascompletedthematurityextensionsof9onshorebondsforthreeyearstotaledRMB147bncUSD20bnon20SepCOGARDexpressedthatitisfacingsignificantuncertaintyregardingassetdisposalswhileobtainingnewfinancingisextremelydifficultItscontractsalesatthesametimeshowed439declinein9M23comparedwith9M22toRMB155bnDetailedinourcommentsCOGARDourreflectionsafterCOGARDspublishedinearlyAugwebelievetheliquiditypressureofCOGARDwillnotbenotablyimprovedinthenear-termandexpectingaholisticliabilityexercisetodealwiththematurityextensionsWithCOGARDandChinaSCEexploringholisticdebtmanagementthereareonlyafewnon-stateownedpropertydevelopersremaincurrentonitsdebtobligationsincludingLongforHopsonSeazenandYanlordAsof8M23Longforistheonlynon-stateowneddeveloperwithcontractsaleslargelycomparablewiththoseof8M22LongforscontractsaleswereRMB818bndown1yoyandranked7thamongthe35developersunderourradarOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuespricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere41creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB32bnAsforMonth-to-date52creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB42bnraisedrepresentinga547yoyincreaseCQLGSTChongqingInternationalLogisticsHubParkConstructionproposedtoofferRMB25bncUSD3429mncorporatebondsviaprivateplacementDALWANMediareportedthatDalianWandaCommercialManagementhassoldShanghaiWandaPlazaPropertytoDajiaInsuranceGLPSPGLPCapitalPartnersraisedRMB175bnforChinalogisticsportfolioGXFINGFitchassignedGuangxiFinancialInvestmentGrouplong-termissuerratingofBBB-andplacedstableoutlookMONMINMongolianMiningannouncedtoredeemalloutstandingUSD842mnMONMIN925041524on8Nov310Oct2023SKYFAMSkyfameRealtywindinguppetitionhearingadjournedto2Feb24WESCHIMoodysdowngradedWestChinaCementCFRtoBa3andmaintainednegativeoutlookZZCITYZhuzhouCityConstructionDevelopmentproposedtoofferuptoRMB1bnthree-yearMTNstorepaydebtsFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereport410Oct2023isdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5