【基本面信息】
　　橡胶：截至2023年9月22日，上期所天然橡胶库存236252（2058）吨，仓单215330（7010）吨，20号胶库存71164（2821）吨，仓单66125 （ -1412）吨。
　　甲醇：库存方面，港口库存总量报114.56万吨，环比+1.35万吨。企业库存环比-3.63万吨，报36.26万吨。传统需求甲醛开工回升，其余开工小幅回落，总体需求变化不大。江浙MTO开工89.61%，环比+11.13%，整体甲醇制烯烃开工87.39%，环比+3.14%。
　　 PVC：PVC开工提升，前期检修装置复产，10月部分检修推迟至11月，预计后期开工将维持高位。厂库库存小幅累库。上周出口成交持续偏弱，下游开工提升。
　　塑料：度库存方面，生产企业库存40.84万吨，环比去库4.45万吨，贸易商库存报4.73万吨，环比累库0.08万吨。下游平均开工率48.06%，环比上涨1.07%。
　　

研究报告全文：能源化工期权日报期权研究2023年9月28日星期四基本面信息卢品先橡胶截至2023年9月22日上期所天然橡胶库存2362522058吨仓单2153307010吨20号胶库存711642821吨仓单66125-1412吨投研经理甲醇库存方面港口库存总量报11456万吨环比135万吨企业库存环比-363万吨报3626万吨传统0755-23375252需求甲醛开工回升其余开工小幅回落总体需求变化不大江浙MTO开工8961环比1113整体甲醇制烯烃lupxwkqhcn开工8739环比314从业资格号PVCPVC开工提升前期检修装置复产10月部分检修推迟至11月预计后期开工将维持高位厂库库存小幅累库上周出口成交持续偏弱下游开工提升F3047321塑料度库存方面生产企业库存4084万吨环比去库445万吨贸易商库存报473万吨环比累库008交易咨询号万吨下游平均开工率4806环比上涨107Z0015541期权分析及策略建议1橡胶期权常俊萍橡胶前一周高位盘整震荡后逐渐转为弱势回落上周以来连续报收阴线逐渐转弱势本周延续空头下行趋势期权研究员形成上方有压力的短期空头趋势的市场行情走势形态涨幅022报收于13875期权隐含波动率报收于2327-changjpwkqhcn067持仓量PCR偏低位置窄幅盘整报收于057期权分析标的行情沪胶偏大幅区间震荡逐渐下降回落转为弱势的市场行情格局期权角度持仓量PCR维持从业资格号在较低水平波动上橡胶期权隐含波动率中位数偏上F03117406策略建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如RU2401期权SRU2401P1375010SRU2401P1350010和SRU2401C1425010SRU2401C14000102甲醇期权甲醇上周冲高回落后连续报收大阴线跌破一周多以来的低点近两周以来形成倒V型走势市场行情短期弱势形态涨幅065报收于2491期权隐含波动率报收于2785-679持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于123期权分析标的行情甲醇表现为中期趋势向上短期转为弱势偏空头的市场行情走势形态期权角度持仓量PCR窄幅盘整较高位置水平波动上甲醇期权隐含波动率持续上升历史较高位置水平策略建议构建偏空头的卖出看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益根据市场行情变化动态的调整持仓delta使得持仓delta保持负数若市场行情急速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则逐渐平仓离场如MA2312期权SMA2312P247510SMA2312P245010和SMA212C255010SMA2312C2500103PTA期权PTA上周以来冲高回落连续报收阴线本周延续空头下行趋势形成中期趋势线方向向上短期弱势偏空头的市场行情走势形态涨幅032报收于6184期权隐含波动率报收于2675-265持仓量PCR窄幅波动报收于128期权分析标的行情PTA表现为短期弱势偏空头的走势形态期权角度持仓量PCR逐渐上升维持较高位置波动上PTA期权隐含波动率持续上升至历史中位数偏高水平策略建议构建卖出看涨看跌偏空头的期权组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则逐渐平仓离场如TA2312期权STA2312P610010STA2312P600010和STA2312C630010STA2312C6200104塑料期权塑料上周冲高回落后连续大幅下跌跌破近一个月以来低点本周以来弱势盘整形成上方有压力的空头趋势走势形态涨幅036报收于8265期权隐含波动率报收于1433-091持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于124期权分析标的行情塑料跌破震荡区间下限短期弱势偏空头的市场行情格局期权角度持仓量PCR偏中性位置波动上塑料期权隐含波动率历史中位数水平策略建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则平仓离场如L2401期权SL2401-P-820010SL2401-P-810010和SL2401-C-840010SL2401-C-8300105PVC期权PVC前一周以来逐渐转偏弱下降回落上周以来加速下跌跌破近两周以来的低点本周以来延续空头下行形成近期弱势行情走势形态涨幅031报收于6162期权隐含波动率报收于2266-56持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于053期权分析标的行情PVC沿着空头趋势方向震荡下行空头向下的市场行情走势期权角度持仓量PCR较低位置波动上PVC期权隐含波动率中位数水平策略建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则平仓离场如V2401期权SV2401-P-610010SV2401-P-600010和SV2401-C-610010SV2401-C-620010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿RURU240113875003000022222030743MAMA23122491001600065045111PTATA23126184002000032197609LPGPG231155500012800236291731634LL24018265003000036275211334PPPP24017758002600034321812442PVCV24016162001900031986630305数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU240114000495006980013797-4600-033-7800892023-12-25MA2312250064008300248110100424-1000372023-11-03TA23126200148501800061693300054-1550372023-11-03PG2311555091601954054463420063-10380162023-10-13L2401830015350225008229-400-005-3650712023-12-07PP2401780015600235507721-1250-016-3750712023-12-07V2401620018000260506120-5100-083-4250712023-12-07数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2401245420422327-067229724552139MA2312203840302785-679293432932575TA2312333519972675-279258428852283PG2311409844134289107329138052777L2401150713491433-091152016031436PP2401151615161516-102159416861502V2401247020112266-056221423722055数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU240150981624032-0192987017007057-002MA231214896065-137923311326123-015TA2312802611076-0462186627936128-003PG2311256351101990081384418874136-025L2401772691090-0131246015442124000PP24016366701050031860222780122-000V2401123614801200556335233399053-002数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图15000成交量万12014500收盘价1380000100140001350080130006012500401200011500201100002023-05-252023-06-072023-09-142023-09-272023-03-272023-03-302023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-302023-06-022023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-262023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-192023-09-22图2甲醇主力合约走势图2700成交量万3752600收盘价247600250030024002252300220015021002000751900180002023-03-302023-07-312023-09-222023-03-272023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-05-302023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-262023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-27图3PTA主力合约走势图6500400成交量万收盘价61460032060002405500160500080450002023-04-042023-07-312023-09-062023-03-272023-03-302023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-05-302023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-262023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-27标的价量关系图4LPG主力合约走势图600054580035成交量万收盘价305500255000204500151040005350002023-06-122023-07-262023-09-062023-03-272023-03-302023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-05-302023-06-022023-06-072023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-27图5塑料主力合约走势图850060成交量万收盘价83005082190040810030790020770010750002023-03-302023-05-302023-07-262023-03-272023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-27图6PP主力合约走势图820080成交量万收盘价80007078007716006050760040740030720020700010680002023-03-302023-05-302023-07-262023-03-272023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-27图8PVC主力合约走势图68001806600收盘价收盘价1601406400120620010060008060580061170040560020540002023-04-262023-06-302023-03-272023-03-302023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-05-042023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-05-302023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-262023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-27橡胶期权持仓分布橡胶期权持仓分布图橡胶期权持仓变化图900020080001507000100600050500004000-5030002000-1001000-1500-20010750107501125011750122501275013250137501425014750152501575016250107501125011750122501275013250137501425014750152501575016250OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC橡胶期权最大未平仓橡胶认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价17000160001500014000130001200011000100002023-04-102023-05-042023-03-272023-03-302023-04-042023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-05-302023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-202023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-262023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-242023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-27橡胶期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓橡胶期权持仓量PCR橡胶期权隐含波动率08015000OIPCR30CLOSE1380000145000702805694140002606013500240501300022125002004018120000301611500020110002023-06-152023-03-272023-04-042023-04-132023-04-212023-05-042023-05-122023-05-222023-05-302023-06-072023-06-272023-07-052023-07-132023-07-212023-07-312023-08-082023-08-162023-08-242023-09-012023-09-112023-09-192023-09-272023-09-192023-04-072023-04-192023-05-042023-05-162023-05-262023-06-072023-06-192023-07-032023-07-132023-07-252023-08-042023-08-162023-08-282023-09-072023-03-27IMPVMA20UPLOW甲醇期权持仓分布甲醇期权持仓分布图甲醇期权持仓变化图2500120010002000800150060040010002000500-2000-4002300245018501900195020002050210021502200225023502400245025002600270028002900300031001850190019502000205021002150220022502300235024002500260027002800290030003100OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC甲醇期权最大未平仓甲醇认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价320030002800260024002200200018002023-05-042023-06-202023-08-242023-03-272023-03-302023-04-042023-04-102023-04-132023-04-182023-04-212023-04-262023-05-092023-05-122023-05-172023-05-222023-05-252023-05-302023-06-022023-06-072023-06-122023-06-152023-06-272023-06-302023-07-052023-07-102023-07-132023-07-182023-07-212023-07-262023-07-312023-08-032023-08-082023-08-112023-08-162023-08-212023-08-292023-09-012023-09-062023-09-112023-09-142023-09-192023-09-222023-09-27甲醇期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓甲醇期权持仓量PCR甲醇期权隐含波动率2402700OIPCR402600200CLOSE352500301602400247600230025120220020080210015200004010190000018002023-05-042023-07-052023-09-012023-03-272023-04-042023-04-132023-04-212023-05-122023-05-222023-05-302023-06-072023-06-152023-06-272023-07-132023-07-212023-07-312023-08-082023-08-162023-08-242023-09-112023-09-192023-09-272023-09-192023-04-072023-04-192023-05-042023-05-162023-05-262023-06-072023-06-192023-07-032023-07-132023-07-252023-08-042023-08-162023-08-282023-09-072023-03-27IMPVMA20UPLOWPTA期权持仓分布PTA期权持仓分布图PTA期权持仓变化图600010008005000600400400020003000-2002000-400-6001000-800-10000-1200530053004650465047504850495051005500570059006100630065006700690046504750485049505100530055005700590061006300650067006900OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECPTA期权最大未平仓PTA认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价8000750070006500600055005000450040002023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023-------------------------------------------060903030404040404040505050505050506060606060607070707070707080808080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