25日工业硅震荡偏强，主力2311收于14530元/吨，日内涨幅0.31%，持仓量减仓2128手至80373手。百川硅参考价15567元/吨，较上个交易日上涨125元/吨。其中#553各地价格区间涨至14400-15450元/吨，#421价格区间涨至16100-16350元/吨。最低交割品#421价格涨至14100元/吨，现货贴水355元/吨。硅价进入持续上行空间三月有余，大厂挺价力度丝毫未减，下游旺季订单转好后，让利心态主导采买增加；其中421期现交易旺盛，各地出现集中增复产潮且多有超前锁单的情况。成本端同样给予强力支撑，宁夏煤矿供应紧张，硅煤价格持续上行，月末西南地区电价也将小幅上调。但目前可以看到大厂整体报价已经高于硅价涨势，下游接受力已经开始下滑。节前不少持货商开始停止报价，暂时观望。短期利多因素交织，硅价或延续上涨，同时我们维持之前观点，对中长线空间表示谨慎。

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年9月26日一研究观点点评25日工业硅震荡偏强主力2311收于14530元吨日内涨幅031持仓量减仓2128手至80373手百川硅参考价15567元吨较上个交易日上涨125元吨其中553各地价格区间涨至14400-15450元吨421价格区间涨至16100-16350元吨最低交割品421价格涨至14100元吨现货贴水355元吨硅价进入持续上行空间三月有余大厂挺价力度丝毫未减下游旺季订单转好后让利心态主导采买增加其中421期现交易旺盛各地出现集中增复产潮且多有超前锁单的情况成本端同样给予强力支撑宁夏煤矿供应紧张硅煤价格持续上行月末西南地区电价也将小幅上调但目前可以看到大厂整体报价已经高于硅价涨势下游接受力已经开始下滑节前不少持货商开始停止报价暂时观望短期利多因素交织硅价或延续上涨同时我们维持之前观点对中长线空间表示谨慎请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅20239252023922涨跌SI00GFE1445514515-60期货结算价元吨SI01GFE1453014600-70不通氧553硅华东1485014750100不通氧553硅黄埔港1475014650100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1465014550100元吨不通氧553硅昆明1470014600100不通氧553硅四川1455014400150不通氧553硅上海1510015000100通氧553硅华东1540015300100通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港1540015300100元吨通氧553硅天津港1530015200100通氧553硅昆明1555015450100421硅华东161001605050421硅有机硅用华东16300163000421硅黄埔港161501610050421现货价格元421硅天津港161001605050吨421硅昆明16150161500421硅有机硅用昆明16350163500421硅四川16350163500无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东1485014750100不通氧553硅黄埔港1490014800100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1475014650100元吨不通氧553硅昆明1520015100100市场行情不通氧553硅四川1510014950150421硅华东161001605050421硅有机硅用华东16300163000421硅黄埔港163001625050421现货价格元421硅天津港162001615050吨421硅昆明16650166500421硅有机硅用昆明16850168500421硅四川16900169000现货553与421价差15501650-100按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格141001405050现货升贴水-355-465110下游DMC华东市场14900149000DMC东岳有机硅000DMC合盛硅业14900149000有机硅元吨生胶15000150000107胶15300153000二甲基硅油1630016200100复投料单晶用81000810000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用79000790000菜花料单晶用77000770000硅片元片单晶M6M10G12303314412303315412000-001000电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12061066072061068072000-002000单晶perc单面1661822101131212311312123000000000光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面166182210114121124114121124000000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港30000280002000天津港3400035000-1000工业硅吨社会昆明港18000160002000库存厂库61440532408200DMC吨厂库49000442004800多晶硅吨厂库6115072250-11100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧553421-55370000350006000030000500002500040000200003000015000200001000010000500000-500020207220211520212320232720233820234720236920239820205220218920219720221120235920236720237620238420239420207312020831202092920201152020124202131120214122021514202161520217142021812202191020221182022223202232420224262022530202262920227282022826202292720221122022121202351120237122023810202053120206292020728202082620209242021118202121620213172021415202151420216122021711202110620211142021123202213020222282022329202242720225262022624202272320228212022919202311320232112023312202341020201023202011212020122020221018202211162022121520211020202111182021121720221230图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-6000020207220208320209220228120221220222320223720224820231520232620238120239220211132021219202132320214232021528202163020217302021831202211220222182022322202242520225302022630202283120221192022129202311120232172023321202342120235262023629202373120238302022118202221920223232022424202251020225262022611202262720227132022729202281420228302022915202210120221122022124202312120232222023310202332620234112023427202351320235292023614202363020237162023817202391820201012202011112020121120211011202111102021121020221010202210172022111820221220图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州8004000700350060030005002500400200030015002001000100500002020722020852020982021542021672023162023292023912022362022492022522022742022952023192023432023652023872021822022272021122202122520213312021711202181420219172022926202212320233152023418202352220236252023729202213120225132022616202272020228232022321202241120225232022613202272520228152022926202211720231302023220202331320234242023515202362620237172023828202391820218232021913202110420211262022117202222820201012202011152020121920211021202111242022103020211228202210172022112820221219202111152021122720211025资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价700007000060000600005000050000400004000030000300002000020000100001000000202072202148202156202163202171202247202255202262202329202339202346202354202361202072202123202163202197202215202255202289202292202346202384202073020208272020924202111420212112021311202172920218262021923202211320222102022310202263020227282022825202292220231122023629202372720238282020726202081920209122020106202111020212272021323202141620215102021627202172120218142021101202212920222222022318202241120225292022622202271620229262022127202312420232172023313202343020235242023617202371120238282023921202010222020111920201217202110212021111820211216202210202022111720221215202010302020112320201217202110252021111820211212202210202022111320221231图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲350000809083000007076250000065200000054150000043031000002025000010100020219220222120225720227320231920233720235320238620218120219820222720224520226120227920229420232320234120235920237520219212021126202211320222202022311202233020224182022526202261420227222022810202282920229172022106202212220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