研究报告全文：MN24Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBOEVaritronix710HKPositiveonshipmentrecoveryandcapacityexpansionin2H23ETargetPriceHK2153Despite1H23resultsmisslinkmgmtguided1in-linedouble-digitgrowthforPreviousTPHK2369FY23Erevenue2shipmentrecoveryandstabilisedASP3UTRandcostcontrolUpDownside1804measurestodrivemarginrecoveryin2HInadditionmgmtexpectscontinuedCurrentPriceHK768overseasexpansionandOLEDMiniLTOPproductstodrivegrowthintoFY25EWeloweredourFY23-25EEPSby8-14mainlytoreflect1H23autoOEMpricewarChinaTechnologyandrisingcostsfromcapacityramp-upTradingat88x71xFY2324EwethinkAlexNGthestockisattractiveReiterateBUYwithournewTPofHK215385239000881alexngcmbicomhkShipmentrecoverywithstabilisedASPrisingUTRandcostcontroltodrivemarginrecoveryin2H23EDuringearningscallmgmtguidedHanqingLIdouble-digitgrowthforFY23Erevenuewhichisin-linewithpriorguidancelihanqingcmbicomhkatbeginningof2023MgmtalsoexpectsshipmentrecoveryaheadofASPStockDatastabilisationin2Hbackedbyclosepartnershipwithcustomersorderramp-MktCapHKmn60826upstrongcustomerdemandforsystemproductsandoverseascustomersAvg3mthstoHKmn214neworderwinsInadditionChengduplantUTRimprovementandcost52wHighLowHK2000768controlmeasureswilllikelydrivemarginrecoveryin2H23ETotalIssuedSharesmn7920SourceFactSet2025roadmapremainsunchangedoverseasexpansionandsolidShareholdingStructureproductpipelineOLEDMiniLTOPtodrivegrowthMgmtmaintainedBOETechnologyGroup530guidanceofHK20bnrevenuetargetin202523CAGRinFY22-25EandKoChunShun56overseassalesmixtoreach50in2025MgmtbelievessystemsalestoSourceHKExcontributesignificantlytoFY25EsalesdrivenbyacceleratedoverseasSharePerformanceexpansionInadditionmgmtreiteratedthatrisingpenetrationofAbsoluteRelativeOLEDMiniLTOPproductsintoChineseandoverseascustomerswill1-mth-306-258becomeanothermajorgrowthdriverinthefuture3-mth-340-2826-mth-589-532Otherkeyhighlights1Totalmedium-to-largesizeshipmentshipmentareaSourceFactSetglobalno1marketsharein1Q232Chineseautomobileproductcoverage12-mthPricePerformanceratereached50in1H23vs30in1H223Chinesemainstreamnewenergyvehicleproductcoverageratereached60in1H23vs41in1H224Chengduplantcapacitytoreach15mnpieceswithinthisyearReiterateBUYwithnewTPofHK2153Webelieve1H23marginpressurehasbeenpartiallypricedinandorderwinsandChengduplantramp-upwillboostmarginrecoveryin2H23EInlongtermwethinkBOEVxwillbenefitfromautodisplayupgradeandoverseasexpansiongivenautointelligenceSourceFactSetandsmartcockpittrendWeloweredourFY23-25EEPSby8-14toreflectRelatedReportsautoOEMpricewarandrisingcostsfromcapacityramp-upReiterateBUY1StrongFY22resultsMultipledriversandournewTPofHK215isbasedonrolled-over20xFY24EPEfromChengduexpansionCMSandUSEarningsSummarymarket22Mar2023linkYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E2NDRTakeawaysChengduautoRevenueHKmn773810722122871498117898displaycapacityramp-upontrackautoYoYgrowth709386146219195intelligencetodrivegrowth13Jan2023linkEBITDAHKmn51384195411841381NetprofitHKmn327858256473799797303CorpDayTakeawaysChengduautoYoYgrowth3776777111236217displayplanttodrivegrowthinFY23EEPSReportedHK0450780871081312Dec2022linkConsensusEPSHK0450780911251654GlobalautodisplayleaderridingonPEx142157887159smartcockpittrendInitiateBUY30Aug2022linkPBx0811070505Yield23671986233942065117ROE107156152171184Netgearing343136114935SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Aug202391x1H23ResultsReviewFigure11H23resultsActualCMBIConsensusHKDmn2H211H222H221H23HoHYoY1H23EDiff1H23EDiffRevenue4538483158925210-116795896-125979-13OperatingProfit255275395241-391-124360-33360-33Netprofit233251332202-391-195315-36300-33EPSHKDcent3200345044642580-422-252424-39380-32OperatingMargin56576746-21ppt-11ppt61-15ppt60-14pptNetMargin51525639-18ppt-13ppt53-15ppt50-11pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesEarningsRevisionFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldChangeRMBmnFY23E2024E2025EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue122871498117898130781597719117-60-62-64Operatingprofit757929113080510381300-59-106-131Netprofit6478009737049051130-81-116-139EPSRMB8710813194771218215209-81-116-139Operatingmargin6262636265680ppt-03ppt-05pptNetMargin535354545759-01ppt-03ppt-05pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23E2024E2025EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue122871498117898134521660620187-87-98-113Operatingprofit757929113078011001436-29-156-213Netprofit6478009737159681243-95-174-217EPSRMB8714107671310091111253016500-44-141-206Operatingmargin62626358667104ppt-04ppt-08pptNetMargin5353545358620ppt-05ppt-07pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Aug2023Figure4PLforecastHKmn20211H222H2220221H232H23E2023E2024ERevenue77384831589210722521070771228714981YoY70951029838679201146219Automotivedisplay6509433552429577464663951104113674YoY88768233447172220153238Industrialdisplay1228496649114556468112451308YoY140-20371-68137508850Operatingprofit350275395670241517757929OPM4557676346736262YoY39701878554915-124306130226Netprofit328251332582203445647800NPM4252565439635353YoY37761638425777-193341111236SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE324Aug2023ValuationWearepositiveonBOEVxsorderwinsChengducapacityexpansionoverseasexpansionandautodisplayleadershipundersmartcockpittrendTradingat88x71xFY2324EthestockisattractiveinourviewReiterateBUYandournewTPofHK2153isbasedonrolled-over20xFY24EPEFigure5PeersvaluationMktCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EBOEVaritronix710HKBUY77576821518088710705152171LDGLPLUSNR3550496NANA----334-AUO2409TTNR42921780NANA--090911807Tianma000050CHNR2803830NANA--0707--WuhuToken300088CHNR1949578NANA19319316158492Infovision688055CHNR1781389NANA------Truly732HKNR339084NANA------Average14013210095490SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure612MforwardPEbandFigure712MforwardPBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE424Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnRevenue4527773810722122871498117898Operatingexpenses4456738810052115291405316767Operatingprofit703506707579291130EBITDA21651384195411841381Otherincomeexpense200400Others11121600Pre-taxprofit683496587379291130Incometax1399891130158Aftertaxprofit69328582647800973Netprofit69328582647800973Adjustednetprofit69328582647800973BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnCurrentassets330748536611636576237402Cashequivalents162822672819316623102541Accountreceivables115817442158247931753579Inventories503833156865420721216Othercurrentassets18966666666Non-currentassets5236901673216130304067PPE4675831490197928483885Othernon-currentassets56107182182182182Totalassets38305543828385261065311469Currentliabilities103721684103406456325768Accountpayables102321363390335149195054Taxpayable01765656565Othercurrentliabilities1415648648648648Non-currentliabilities252964646464Othernon-currentliabilities252933333333Totalliabilities106321984167412956965832Sharecapital184184198198198198Otherreserves252628483867415047095391Totalshareholdersequity276733464116439849575637Totalequityandliabilities38305543828385261065311469PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE524Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation683496587379291130Depreciationamortization147160193228270321Changeinworkingcapital104217105554546587Others1109891130158Netcashfromoperations253665471973171239InvestingCapitalexpenditure56247483491599716Others2880000Netcashfrominvesting28254483491599716FinancingDividendpaid19136182133240292Others182460000Netcashfromfinancing174210182133240292NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear153816282267281931662310Exchangedifference3819745000Cashattheendoftheyear162822672819316623102541GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue267709386146219195Operatingprofit13933970915130226217EBITDA3011375639134241167Netprofit17433776777111236217Adjnetprofit17433776777111236217PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecOperatingmargin164563626263EBITDAmargin486678787977Adjnetprofitmargin154254535354ReturnonequityROE25107156152171184GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx060300010100Currentratiox322216161413Receivableturnoverdays823685664689689689Inventoryturnoverdays517389500401401401Payableturnoverdays8849191151121712171217VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE249142157887159PB040811070505Divyield215823671986233942065117EV276723345641158439764956556367EVSales060404040303EVEBITDA1286549464241SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE624Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7