研究报告全文：MN23Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSimcerePharmaceutical2096HKInnovativedrugscontributingmajorityofsalesIn1H23SimcerereportedRMB338bn25YoYrevenuefromdrugsalesTargetPriceHK815andpromotionservicesRevenuefrominnovativedrugsincreased37YoYPreviousTPHK1212toRMB241bnaccountingfor71of1H23totalrevenuevs65inFY22andUpDownside29662inFY21In1H23revenuefromoncologyautoimmuneandotherfieldsCurrentPriceHK629recorded3530and63YoYgrowthrespectivelywhilethesalesofCNSproductsdecreased15YoYin1H23TheGPmargindecreasedto758inChinaHealthcare1H23from794in1H22mainlyduetothereducedproportionofsalesfromJillWUCFAhigh-marginSanbexinandrelativelyhighmanufacturingcostofXiannuoxin852390008423CLattheinitialcommercializationstageOperatingcashoutflowsin1H23jillwucmbicomhkwasRMB82mncomparedtocashinflowofRMB685mnin1H22mainlyduetotherawmaterialstockingforXiannuoxinin1H23RDratiodecreasedtoAndyWANG369in1H23from380inFY22andSGAratioalsofellto445from85236576288andywangcmbicomhk451forthesameperiodSimcererecordedanattributablenetprofitofRMB227bnin1H23inclRMB114bnfromfairvaluechangeofinvestmentStockDataportfolioandRMB079bnfromdisposalofsubsidiarieswhilethecorenetprofitMktCapHKmn16757wasstableRMB395mnin1H23vsRMB393mnin1H22Avg3mthstoHKmn395352wHighLowHK1470607OncologybusinessrecordedgrowthrecoveryThesalesofEndostarTotalIssuedSharesmn2664in1H23increased51YoYtoRMB434mnAccordingto3DMedicinesSourceFactSetEnweidaPD-L1realizedRMB353mnsalesin1H2370YoYCoselaShareholdingStructurewasatearlystageofsalesramp-upandmayobtainapprovalfordomesticManagement374productionin1Q24whichwillboosttheGPmarginfortheproductWeArtkingGlobal228expectCoselatobeaddedtotheNRDLforES-SCLCinearly2024InSourceBloombergadditionthePh3trialofCoselainTNBCwillreleasedatain1H24TheSharePerformanceCompanyisalsoexploringthepotentialofCoselaincombinationwithADCAbsoluteRelativeorIOdrugsBesidesthecommercializedassetstheCompanyrecentlyin-1-mth-158-88licensedCMAB009EGFRwhichiscurrentlyundertheNDAreviewby3-mth-245-165CDEforCRCCMAB009couldpotentiallybecomethefirstdomesticEGFR6-mth-403-254SourceFactSetmAbinChina12-mthPricePerformanceNon-oncologyportfoliocontinuestogrowIntheCNSfieldsalesofUS2096HKHSIrebasedSanbexinremainedstableYoYin1H23atRMB103bn22marketshare16ofstrokeinjectionwithasignificant33increaseinpatientnumbers14offsettingthe32pricecutduetoNRDLrenewaleffectiveinMar202312TheNDAofSanbexinsublingualtabletforacuteischemicstrokeAISwas10acceptedbyCDEinJun2023Upontheapprovalexpectedin1H24the86tabletwillbecomeasequentialtherapyofSanbexininjectionandprovide4betterflexibilityforstroketreatmentAdditionallySanbexinisassessedin2aPh2trialforhemorrhagicstrokeDaridorexantadifferentiatedanti-0insomniadrugpotentiallywithbettersafeprofileandnowithdrawalAug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23symptomhasrecentlyobtainedPh13INDapprovalinChinawhichcouldSourceFactSetleadtoanNDAin2024MeanwhileXiannuoxin3CLhasfiledthefullapprovalapplicationbeingthefirstCOVID-19smallmoleculedruginChinatoapplyforfullapprovalinChinaMaintainBUYTofactorinthechallengingbusinessenvironmentinChinawereviseourDCF-basedTPfromHK1212toHK815WACC111terminalgrowthrate30implying27x17xFY2324PEEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn500063197353888510713YoYgrowth1126162121NetprofitRMBmn1507933153511361451YoYgrowth125-3865-2628EPSReportedRMBcents5836584354PEx6628271713ROE124232130186126SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk23Aug2023Figure1CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue73538885107137642949511774-378-643-901GrossProfit564670018494606675569393-691-735-956OperatingProfit1619123815861243159920703026-2258-2341Netprofit1535113614511132145418853561-2186-2303EPSRMBcents5843544355713543-2197-2314GrossMargin767978797929793879587978-258ppt-078ppt-048pptOperatingMargin220213931480162616841758575ppt-291ppt-278pptNetMargin208812791355148115311601606ppt-253ppt-247pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue73538885107137646971011413-383-850-614GrossProfit564670018494605677219090-677-932-655OperatingProfit1619123815861310134017672357-762-1027Attributablenetprofit1535113614511147135817403382-1633-1661EPSRMBcents5843544454773215-2102-2926GrossMargin767978797929792179517965-242ppt-072ppt-035pptOperatingMargin220213931480171313801548488ppt013ppt-068pptNetMargin208812791355150013991525587ppt-120ppt-170pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRmbmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EEBIT16191238158618242061228724932668Taxrate100150150150150150150150EBIT1-taxrate14571052134815501752194421192268DA283274267307347385420449-Changeinworkingcapital149-375-322-370-418-464-506-542-Capex-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-180FCFF1689752109312871480166518331995Terminalvalue25391Terminalgrowthrate30WACC111CostofEquity140CostofDebt50EquityBeta11RiskFreeRate30MarketRiskPremium105TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150Terminalvalue9852TotalPV17121Netdebt-2436Minorityinterest11EquityvalueRMBmn19546EquityvalueHKmn21718Noofsharesoutstandingmn2664DCFpershareHK815SourceCMBISestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE223Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue4509500063197353888510713Costofgoodssold90010801322170618842218Grossprofit360939204997564670018494Sellingexpense157020372402275732873910Adminexpense411367444551649761RDexpense114214171728169119992410Operatingprofit9271449862161912381586Otherincome115150172172172172Otherexpense327121525480000Othergainslosses1073258193116ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV14440000Pre-taxprofit8051402888170013311701Incometax1419740170200255Minorityinterest584555Netprofit6641499929153011311446BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets646749805454671373858864Cashequivalents32709731658255926483404Accountreceivables187123992337258631253767Inventories263235302413456537Prepayment121140166166166166FinancialassetsatFVTPL000000Othercurrentassets9421232991991991991Non-currentassets447751825327524551705103PPE212819312136206820081956Deferredincometax210290327327327327InvestmentinJVsassos21699101010Intangibles7760380365350335Goodwill173173173173173173FinancialassetsatFVTPL123219402057205720572057Othernon-currentassets441778246246246246Totalassets109431016110781119581255613968Currentliabilities349730642964308529073323Short-termborrowings179315301292892492492Accountpayables156514861602212423452761Taxpayable01611111111Othercurrentliabilities1393259595959Non-currentliabilities2111635675660646632Long-termborrowings127600000Deferredincome448418403389375361Othernon-currentliabilities387217271271271271Totalliabilities560836983638374635533954Sharecapital300330033081308130813081Otherreserves229934344046512059156931Totalshareholdersequity5302643771278201899710012Minorityinterest3426161161Totalequityandliabilities109431016110781119581255613968PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE323Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation8051402888170013311701Depreciationamortization2052342682682599Taxpaid1551571702005Changeinworkingcapital71878486215740Others4110401051041222228Netcashfromoperations9720213551880938523InvestingCapitalexpenditure3532093432002000Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments200000Others880226411106109621Netcashfrominvesting529436689491621FinancingDividendpaid03913914603410Netborrowings26714372674004000Proceedsfromshareissues300300000Others916203952516833Netcashfromfinancing23541625754886757833NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear3553270973165825592648Exchangedifference643515000Others2979226266990190756Cashattheendoftheyear32709731658255926483404SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludes2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EfinancialassetsYE31DecRevenue105109264209243240Grossprofit13086275214246243Operatingprofit209563405441287295Netprofit3381256381205281295PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin800784791794796798Operatingmargin206290136163168176ReturnonequityROE196255137149170194GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx020102020202Currentratiox181618212324Receivableturnoverdays129816031284128412841284Inventoryturnoverdays1036892883883883883Payableturnoverdays1008547984984984984VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE268128219171134103PEdiluted268128219171134103Divyield222021182229PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE423Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5