研究报告全文：21Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateXpengIncXPEVUSHOLDMaintain2Q23GPMmissStillalongwayforhealthyGPMTargetPriceUS1400PreviousTPUS900UpDownside-65MaintainHOLDAlthoughwereviseupXpengsFY24EsalesvolumeforecastCurrentPriceUS1498to022mnunitsfollowingtheG6saggressivepricingitslowGPMcouldpersistespeciallywithtwonewmodelsnextyearlikelytobepricedbelowtheG6WeChinaAutoSectorprojectsingle-digitGPMforFY24EandwebelieveitscurrentvaluationisfairSHIJiCFA2Q23ASPandGPMmissXpengs2Q23revenuewas6lowerthanwe85237618728hadexpectedlargelyduetoincreasedsalespromotioninourviewExcludingshijicmbicomhkthewrite-downofRMB02bnfortheG3its2Q23GPMwouldstillhavebeenlowerthan1Q23worsethanourpriorexpectationXpengs2Q23netlossofDOUWenjingCFARMB28bnwasaboutRMB035bnwiderthanourestimatesmainlydueto85269394751theaveragesellingpriceASPandGPMmissdouwenjingcmbicomhkG6isunlikelytolift2H23EGPMsignificantlyAlthoughwenotedinourGUSijiepreviousreportthatXpengs1Q23GPMcouldimplychallengingFY23jasongucmbicomhkprofitabilitythemargindentappearstobemoreseverethanwehadexpectedespeciallywiththeG6saggressivepricingWelowerourFY23EGPMfromStockData79to18implyingGPMof32in2H23EasXpengsproductmixcouldMktCapUSmn12969improvein2H23withtheG3andP5graduallyphasingoutTheG6sAvg3mthstoUSmn317aggressivepricingcouldpushXpengtoadoptthesamestrategyforitsnew52wHighLowUS2362618TotalIssuedSharesmn1727modelsThereforeithastocountoncostreductiontoimprovemarginsWeSourceBloombergareoftheviewthatmanagementsguidanceof35costcutsbytheendofFY24isabitunrealisticTeslasGPMonlyrose43pptsYoYinFY21amidShareholdingStructurealmostdoubledsalesvolumeandanumberoftechnologicaladvancesWeHeXiaopeng212projectXpengsFY24EGPMtorise48pptsYoYto66TaobaoChina112Others676CityNGPiscrucialalthoughitisstillearlytoquantifysalesandmarginSourceBloombergimpactXpengplanstorolloutcityNGPwithoutHDmapinOct2023tosolidifyitsleadingpositioninautonomousdrivingADTheuserexperienceSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativecouldbecrucialtotheconsumerstickinessandthereforeitssalesgrowthOur1-mth112153testdriveinShenzhenforitscityNGPwithHDmapwasabitbelowour3-mth594640expectationasitisverylimitedtomainroadsPeerssuchasLiAutoLIUS6-mth685801BUYarecatchingupandcouldmakeADsmonetizationmoredifficultSourceBloombergEarningsValuationWereviseupFY24Esalesvolumeby40000unitsto12-mthPricePerformance220000unitsfollowingtheG6saggressivepricingWemaintainourHOLDUSXPEVUSMSCIChinarebasedratingbutraisetargetpricefromUS900toUS1400basedon2xour30FY24EPSprior2xFY23EWebelievesuchvaluationisjustifiedasLiAuto25whichhasthehighestprojectedsalesgrowthnowonlytradesat14xour20FY24EPSKeyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceincludefasterorslower15ADtechnologyadvancementthanitspeershigherorlowersalesvolumeandorgrossmarginthanweexpectaswellasasectorre-ratingorde-rating105EarningsSummary02022-082022-112023-022023-05YE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ESourceBloombergRevenueRMBmn2098826855312704664560393YoYgrowth2591280164492295AuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersNetincomeRMBmn486391391003387257119ZhongTianEPSRMB296534573487394YoYgrowthNANANANANAPSx2320312116RelatedReportsPBx1115294054XpengIncLackofturnaroundsignalsYieldNANANANANAin202325May2023ROE127231289305333NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Aug2023Figure1QuarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23YoYQoQSalesvolumeunits345613442229570222041823023205-326273ASPRMB21570421603523075723150622125221817310-14Revenue745574366823514040335063-319255Grossprofit91180992344567197NANARDexpenses1221126514991230129613678155SGAexpenses164216651626175613871544-73113Operatingprofit192020912177251725853090NANANetprofit170127012376236123372805NANAGrossmargin1221091358717-39-148ppt-56pptOperatingmargin-258-281-319-490-641-610-329ppt31pptNetmargin-228-363-348-459-579-554-191ppt25pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue31270466456039327555426404770013594266Grossprofit57830595119216542046175-733-272-171Operatingprofit11532101218471987589977326NANANANetprofit1003387257119866479266291NANANAGrossmargin1866857999129-60ppt-33ppt-45pptOperatingmargin-369-217-140-358-211-154-10ppt-06ppt13pptNetmargin-321-187-118-314-186-132-06ppt-01ppt14pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue312704664560393322985466071595-32-147-156Grossprofit578305951192437716811537-763-573-556Operatingprofit11532101218471968169423758NANANANetprofit1003387257119875658552715NANANAGrossmargin18668575131161-57ppt-66ppt-76pptOperatingmargin-369-217-140-300-127-52-69ppt-90ppt-88pptNetmargin-321-187-118-271-107-38-50ppt-80ppt-80pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Aug2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYEsummary31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue2098826855312704664560393Profitbeforetaxation483791141003387257119Costofsales1836623767306924358655274Depreciationamortization8381411210227283310Grossprofit2623308857830595119Changeinworkingcapital35842709123526233270Others6532209789120RDexp41145215550055005000Netcashfromoperating1095823267583386620SGAexp53056688671079808990Otherincome218109100300400Capex43184680310041003400Operatingprofit6579870611532101218471Others287589526761970142990Netcashfrominvesting33076484645192914410Netfinancecosts688927919696552Othernon-operexp10551339510600600Shareissuance1311024935--Pre-taxprofit483791141003387257119Netborrowings143611911811000500Others1660113131314Incometax2625---Netcashfromfinancing1462760043741987486Accronpreferredshares-----Netprofit486391391003387257119Netchangeincash1954326171502514543Cashatbeginningofyear3154211635147141621616730Exchangedifference363462---Cashattheendofyear1163514714162161673016187BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ECurrentassets4883143527439014602347333SalesmixCashequivalents1102514608161091662416081Vehiclesales955925908907897Accountreceivables26733873428463908273Servicesandothers45759293103Inventories26624521504565687572Othercurrentassets3247020525184631644115408GrowthRevenue2591280164492295Non-currentassets1682127964266152742129810Grossprofit88601788134293673PPE542510607111281221912873OperatingprofitNANANANANAIntangibles8791043104810351006NetprofitNANANANANAOthernon-currentassets1051716314144391416715931Totalassets6565171491705157344477143ProfitlossratioGrossmargin125115186685Currentliabilities1801324115252573398442788Operatingmargin313324369217140Bankborrowings-3181500500500Netprofitmargin232340321187118Accountpayables1236214223168172388330287Currentdeferredrevenue418389604774994BalancesheetratioOthercurrentliabilities523263227335882711008Netcashtotalequityx1008080809Currentratiox2718171411Non-currentliabilities549210465126361485216256Receivableturnoverdays4653505050Bankborrowings16754613611371137613Inventoryturnoverdays5369605550Othernon-currentliabilities38175852652377398643Payableturnoverdays246218200200200Totalliabilities2350534580378924883659045ProfitabilityMezzanineequity-----ROE127231289305333Ordinaryshares00000ROA8813314112195Reserves4214636911326232460818098Shareholdersequity4214736911326232460818098PersharedataRMBTotalequityandliabilities6565171491705157344477143EPS-296-534-573-487-394DPSNANANANANASourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4