研究报告全文：MN21Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCRBeer291HK1HrevEBIT1326Heinekengrew60TargetPriceHK7310CRbeers1361Hrevenuegrowthcomprised90beerrevenuegrowthandPreviousTPHK7690RMB977mnbaijiurevenuewhichwasreportedandconsolidatedforthefirstUpDownside589timeWhiletheformerseemstobeslightlybelowourestimateofalow-teenCurrentPriceHK4600growthbeergrossmarginof452was15ppaheadofusthankstorawmaterialcostsavingsandabetter-than-expectedsalesmixOfnoteHeinekenChinaConsumerStaplesrecorded60YoYshipmentgrowthandnowsub-premiumSuper-xandJosephWONGabovecontributedto22oftotalshipmentoverthereportingperiodThe85239000838strengthalsotranslatedintoa266recurringEBITmarginsthatkicked-injosephwongcmbicomhk15ppaboveusSeparatelythebaijiubusinessreportedRMB71mnEBITnegligibletotheGroupstotalasexpectedRMB395mnshouldweexcludeBellaLIamortizationfromintangibleassetsarisingfromJinshaacquisition85237576202bellalicmbicomhkOutlookManagementremainsupbeatinthemomentumofbeerpremiumizationinthenextfewyearsandseesrevolutionsinbottlesizeStockDataflavoursandalcoholcontenttobethemajorcatalyststothetrendMktCapHKmn1492321Avg3mthstoHKmn3946Meanwhilemanagementcommentedthattheyaresatisfiedwithwhat52wHighLowHK64753700Heineken60andSnow26areperforminginChinaSuperXTotalIssuedSharesmn32442performancewasrelativelylukewarmduetoratherlimitedupsidepricehikeSourceFactSetandyetmanagementlooksforwardtoanyroomofimprovementshouldShareholdingStructurepricelevelsoftheformerscontinuetogoupOveralla20growthinsub-CRHBeer517premiumismaintainedfor2023EMorganStanley47SourceHKExBaijiuInviewofthecurrentindustryheadwindpricemanagementtopsJinshasoperationagendaandthebrandwillsetRMB100-300tobetheSharePerformancecorepricerangewithRMB500-1000asacomplimentaryfocusAbsoluteRelativeManagementaimsRMB10bnrevenuein3yearswithanachievablenet1-mth-71-163-mth-136-51profitofRMB2-3bn6-mth-219-91EarningschangeWehaveincludedourfinancialforecastsforJinshainSourceFactSetourmodelinwhichweassumeanRMB30bnrevenueandamutedEBIT12-mthPricePerformancecontributionMeanwhilewealsoliftedupour2023Egrossmarginsby18pptoreflecttheresultsAlltheseexplainedan11increaseinourrecurringEBITestimatefor2023EValuationOurTPisbasedonanupdated230xfrompreviously270xrolled-forwardmid-24EEVEBITDAwhichstillrepresentsitslong-termaveragesince2018SourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn3338735263414494419647229YoYgrowth62561756669NetprofitRMBmn4587043440546116858979492YoYgrowth119153257256159YoYgrowth119153257256159EPSReportedRMB141134168211245ConsensusEPSRMBnana167202239PEx378335254203175PBx7154453934Yield1112162023ROE201169189207209Netgearing220337408417426SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Aug2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue414494419647229390714243146245614221GrossProfit174641935721505153051701318980141138133RecurringEBIT698288001022463637387848897191204Netprofit54616859794951645970683757149163GrossMargin4214384553924014103ppt37ppt45pptEBITMargin16819921616317418406ppt25ppt33pptNetmargin1321551681321411480ppt14ppt2pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue4144944196472294066944116476701902-09GrossProfit174641935721505167681902021292411810RecurringEBIT69828800102247193874810320-2906-09Netprofit546168597949541665647697084533GrossMargin42143845541243144709ppt07ppt09pptRecurringEBIT168199216177198216-08ppt01ppt0pptNetmargin132155168133149161-01ppt06ppt07pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimateFigure3CRB-12MforwardEVEBITDAbandFigure4CRB-12MtrailingPBbandx1-yrfwdEVEBITDALTaveragex1-yrtrailingPBLTaverage35-2SD-1SD1101SD2SD-1SD1SD2SD-2SD3090257020501530Jul18Jul21JulJul19Jul20Jul22Jul23JulJulJul18Jul19Jul20Jul21Jul22Jul23Apr18Apr19Oct20Oct21AprOct18Oct19Apr20Apr21Oct22Apr22Oct23AprJan19Jan23JanJan18Jan20Jan21Jan22JanOct20Oct21Oct22OctApr18Apr18Oct19Apr19Oct20Apr21Apr22Apr23AprJan19Jan20Jan21Jan22Jan23Jan18JanSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue314483338735263414494419647229Costofgoodssold193732031321702239852483925724Grossprofit120751307413561174641935721505Operatingexpenses899670628267104811055711282Sellingexpense612367436750853884869068Adminexpense441936193320406243314628Others154633001803211922602415Operatingprofit3079601252946982880010224EBITDA53816293699287701065712148Depreciation148915761510157016261679Goodwillamortisation646520202020EBIT3079601252946982880010224Interestincome141243380300300300Interestexpense611979000NetInterestincomeexpense80224301300300300Others1502167000Pre-taxprofit3009621555287282910010524Incometax91516251178155219392243Aftertaxprofit209445904350573171618281Minorityinterest036269302332Discontinuedoperations000000Netprofit209445874344546168597949Adjustednetprofit209445874344546168597949Grossdividends425980980142519852421BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets133771589720878249572757030657Cashequivalents4538537610208136661587118425Accountreceivables237834362612340742384529Inventories601464587402722868057048Othercurrentassets447627656656656656Non-currentassets303983515636435363453612435778PPE177811709617206171361693516609Deferredincometax285833683266326632663266Intangibles320255203183163143Goodwill932692509385938593859385Othernon-currentassets11351876375637563756375Totalassets437755105357313613026369466435Currentliabilities195722117023667236652108118284Short-termborrowings00512512512512Accountpayables193272100723002230002041617619Taxpayable16292100100100100Othercurrentliabilities837153535353Non-currentliabilities292953946569656965696569Long-termborrowings00588588588588Deferredincome78819551850185018501850Othernon-currentliabilities214134394131413141314131Totalliabilities225012656430236302342765024853Sharecapital140901409014090140901409014090Retainedearnings71271034212949166712134626551Totalshareholdersequity212172443227039307613543640641Minorityinterest575738307609941Totalequityandliabilities437755105357313613026369466435PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation3009621555287282910010524Depreciationamortization155316411530159016461699Taxpaid91516251178155219392243Changeinworkingcapital1165178187562429923330Others19981414909000Netcashfromoperations448049956846669758156651InvestingCapitalexpenditure104714711661150014251354Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments345678Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term384226591000investmentsOthers41015097678Netcashfrominvesting107027501058150014251354FinancingDividendpaid56112811739173921842744Netborrowings52601100000Proceedsfromshareissues000000Others11085172000Netcashfromfinancing11971366811173921842744NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear234045385376102081366615871Exchangedifference1541145000Cashattheendoftheyear4538537610208136661587118425GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue5262561756669Grossprofit128337288108111Operatingprofit423953119319260162EBITDA46169111254215140EBIT423953119319260162Netprofit596119153257256159Adjnetprofit596119153257256159PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin384392385421438455Operatingmargin98180150168199216EBITDAmargin171188198212241257Adjnetprofitmargin67137123132155168ReturnonequityROE102201169189207209GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx020203040404Currentratiox070809111317Receivableturnoverdays276376270300350350Inventoryturnoverdays113311601245110010001000Payableturnoverdays364137753869350030002500VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE633378335254203175PB637154453934Divyield061112162023SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5