研究报告全文：MN18Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateIntronTech1760HK1H23EPreviewstronggrowthdespiteindustryheadwindsexpectback-loadedin2H23ETargetPriceHK701IntronTechwillannounceits1H23resultsnextweekWeestimate1H23EPreviousTPHK754revenueofRMB266bn28YoYandnetincomeofRMB191mn25UpDownside550YoYThesolidgrowthwasmainlyduetostrongNEVshipmentandrisingCurrentPriceHK452penetrationofautoelectrificationintelligencepartlyoffsetbyOEMpricepressureweakercloudserverandhigherRDexpensesLookingaheadweChinaTechnologyexpectaback-loaded2H23EdrivenbyseasonalitynewproductrampsandAlexNGbetteroperatingleverageWeslightlytrimmedFY23-25EEPSby4-7tofactor85239000881inslowertraditionalbusinessandhigherRDexpensesTradingat82x60xalexngcmbicomhkFY2324EPEwethinktherisk-rewardisveryattractivecomparedwithAHsharepeersMaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK701UpcomingcatalystsClaudiaLIUclaudialiucmbicomhkincluderisingADASpenetrationandNEVclientsharegainHanqingLI1H23EpreviewsolidgrowthdespitechallengingmarketconditionWelihanqingcmbicomhkestimate1H23ErevenueRMB266bn28YoYandnetincomeofRMBStockData191mn25YoYBysegmentweexpectrevenuefromnewenergyMktCapHKmn49073bodycontrolsafetypowertrainautomationconnectivitytodeliver55Avg3mthstoHKmn54252530100YoYwhilecloudserverdeclined60YoYgiven52wHighLowHK645326NEVclientsharegainADASpenetrationandnewproductrampslightlyTotalIssuedSharesmn10857SourceFactSetoffsetbycloudserverbusinessweaknessfromkeycustomersWeexpect1H23EGPMtoremainlargelyflattishat210despitepricepressurefromShareholdingStructuredownstreamOEMcustomersMagnateEraLtd483LukWingMing69Outlookexpectback-loaded2H23EandmoderatedownstreampriceSourceHKExcompetitionWeexpectIntronstoplinetobeback-loadedin2H23EdrivenSharePerformancebytraditionalseasonalityandnewproductrampandweexpectmoderateAbsoluteRelativeimpactfromdownstreamautoOEMpricecompetitionandde-spectrend1-mth-112-59Withcost-pluspricingstrategyandeconomiesofscaleofRDresources3-mth-78-156-mth-11014webelieveIntronwillcontinuetodeliverstronger-than-industrygrowthSourceFactSetbackedbymarketsharegaindesignwinsandrobustproductpipeline12-mthPricePerformanceOverallweestimaterevenuenetprofitgrowthof4540YoYin2H23EAttractiveriskrewardreiterateBUYWetrimmedFY23-25EEPSby4-7mainlytoreflecthigherRDexpensesandslowertraditionalbusinessOurnewTPofHK701isbasedonsame12xFY23EPE24below5-yearhistavgTradingat82x60xFY2324EPEwethinkrisk-rewardisattractiveespeciallycomparedwithAHsharepeersCatalystsincluderisingADASpenetrationandsharegaininNEVclientsSourceFactSetRelatedreportsEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E1IntronTech1760HKNDRtakeawaysStrongorderbackloginRevenueRMBmn3176483066478801111012H23ESolidpipelinetodriveYoYgrowth594521376324261growthintoFY2425Elink2IntronTech1760HKBeneficiaryNetprofitRMBmn20064150557976579592ofautomotivemegatrendsinelectrificationandintelligencelinkYoYgrowth11161069345372253EPSReportedRMB019038051071088ConsensusEPSRMBnana055069081PEx227102826048PBx2620181512Yield1634375063ROE132213238272280SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk18Aug2023FocusChartsFigure1IntronsrevenueforecastFigure2IntronsrevenuebreakdownRMBmn10090120008059705210000603738508000322826403060001520400010-142000-100201720182019202120222023E2024E2025E0-30NewEnergyBodyControl2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025ESafetyPowertrainRevenueYoYAutomationConnectivityCloudServerServiceOthersSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3IntronsnewenergyvehiclesolutionsFigure4IntronsintelligentvehiclesolutionsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5ChinaNEVmonthlywholesaleshipmentFigure6IntronsRDexpenseasoftotalsalesVehiclesRMBmn800000407009727000003569698600666765600000305975005000002564000002040053000001530042000001031000005200200100100Jul-20Oct-16Apr-19Oct-21Jan-18Jun-18Jan-23Jun-23Mar-17Mar-22Feb-20Dec-20Nov-18Sep-19Aug-17Aug-22May-21May-16201820192020202120222023E2024EChinapassengerNEVmonthlywholesaleshipmentRDexpenseRDexpasofsalesChinapassengerNEVpenetrationrateSourceCAAMCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE218Aug2023EarningsForecastsFigure7CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue66478801111016883918111438-3-4-3Grossprofit139618382285143718892313-3-3-1Netprofit558766959593751886-628EPSRMB051070087055069081-718Grossmargin21020920620920620201ppt03ppt04pptNetMargin848786868277-02ppt05ppt09pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure8EarningsRevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue66478801111016879908611445-3-3-3Grossprofit139618382285145618982356-4-3-3Netprofit558766959600799999-7-4-4EPSRMB051070087055073091-7-4-4Grossmargin210209206212209206-02ppt0ppt0pptNetMargin848786878887-03ppt-01ppt-01pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure9RevenuebreakdownbysegmentRMBmn202120221H23E2H23E2023E2024E2025ENewEnergy1082206712291949317843525491YoY1316910550530538369262BodyControl579868538613115114651779YoY371500250400326273214Safety4766363414587999691162YoY-29335250260256213200Powertrain309432202374575708850YoY266399300350332231200AutomationConnectivity1012551873155017581137YoY-15131000950968511500CloudServer550420121113233280336YoY815-235-600-50-445200200ServiceOthers7915238172210269346YoY191918300400381284284Revenue31764830265539936647880111101YoY594521279449376324261SourceCompanyCMBIGMestimatesinFY22AutomationConnectivityisseparatedfromSafetysegmentPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE318Aug2023Figure10PLforecastRMBmn202120221H23E2H23E2023E2024E2025ERevenue31764830265539936647880111101YoY594521279449376324261Costofsales-2551-378920973154-5252-6963-8816Grossprofit6251041557838139618382285GPM197215210210210209206YoY745664245414341316243SM1011065880138176222ofrev-32-22-22-20-21-20-20RD206332210272481606764ofrev-65-69-79-68-72-69-69Admin10795455297141167ofrev-34-20-17-13-15-16-15Pre-taxprofit2174552134106238591076Pre-taxprofitmargin689480103949897YoY12091099269428370379253Netprofit201415191367558766959NPM63867292848786YoY11161069250400345372253SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE418Aug2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK70155upsideOurnewTPofHK701isbasedonsame12xFY23EPEWeusepriceearningsasourvaluationmethodologysincewebelieveitbettercapturesIntronsearningsgrowthpotentialWeviewourtargetmultipleof12xPEasreasonableandjustifiedby32earningsCAGRover2022-25Eand3965salesCAGRinNewEnergyandAutomationConnectivitysegmentsIntronnowtradesat82x60xFY2324EPEvs281x204xFY2324EPEforAH-listedautomobilecomponentssolutionspeersWethinkIntronishighlyundervaluedespeciallyconsideringitshighROElevelUpcomingcatalystsincludepotentialfavourableNEVpolicyrisingADASADpenetrationsharegaininNEVcustomersandproductlaunchesFigure11IntronTechspeersvaluationCMBIMarketCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EIntronTech1760HKBuy628452705582601815218250BOEVaritronix710HKBuy9779662371451027908077984BYDElectronics285HKBuy8562297531761821482119117128SunnyOptical2382HKHold9415672078317365232272575108Luxshare002475CHBuy310763186480512111712220105114DesaySV002920CHNR1077914196NANA51537910283205230ForyouCorp002906CHNR20073075NANA2862143228113132Joyson600699CHNR36061872NANA28019320187396JingweiHirain688326CHNR216613200NANA51236328265683Average2812043127116136SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1212MforwardPEbandFigure1312MforwardPBband40453540303525302025151020515010Jul-20Jul-23Jul-18Jul-19Jul-21Jul-22Jan-20Jan-23Jan-19Jan-21Jan-22Mar-21Mar-19Mar-20Mar-22Mar-23Nov-18Nov-19Nov-21Nov-22Nov-20Sep-18Sep-20Sep-21Sep-19Sep-22May-19May-22May-20May-21May-23Jul-18Jul-21Jul-23Jul-19Jul-20Jul-22Jan-20Jan-21Jan-23Jan-19Jan-22Mar-19Mar-20Mar-23Mar-21Mar-22Nov-21Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-22Sep-18Sep-21Sep-19Sep-20Sep-22May-19May-20May-22May-21May-231-yrForwardPEMeanMean1SDMean-1SD1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE518Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue1993317648306647880111101Costofgoodssold163525513789525269638816Grossprofit3586251041139618382285Sellingexpense68101106138176222Adminexpense218313427578746930Otherincome493040363636Otherexpense2250505050ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV112222NetInterestincomeexpense202445454545Pre-taxprofit982174556238591076Incometax317446086108Aftertaxprofit95200411563773968Minorityinterest004579Netprofit95201415558766959Grossdividends2860126167230288BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets169522943351383344715265Cashequivalents388572337592205313Accountreceivables78311631698199525183033Inventories4474981086101515171689Prepayment4027182182182182STbankdeposits363249494949FinancialassetsatFVTPL000000Othercurrentassets000000Contractassets110000Non-currentassets360565724763799832PPE154170195220244258Right-of-useassets233333424860Deferredincometax244254545454Intangibles126224325330337343FinancialassetsatFVTPL157685858585Othernon-currentassets182032323232Totalassets205428594075459652706097Currentliabilities74710971907203121632309Short-termborrowings433632950950950950Accountpayables74237331455587733Taxpayable61827272727Othercurrentliabilities011111Leaseliabilities121520202020Accruedexpenses221194578578578578Non-currentliabilities161920202020Long-termborrowings000000Othernon-currentliabilities161920202020Sharecapital999999Otherreserves128317332129252530683748Totalshareholdersequity129217432149254430883768Minorityinterest0111111111Totalequityandliabilities205428594075459652706097PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE618Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation982174556238591076Depreciationamortization496090109120129Taxpaid2122356086108Changeinworkingcapital2285643102893540Others6160000Netcashfromoperations134151345701556InvestingCapitalexpenditure137159216148156161Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments000000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term100000investmentsOthers20640000Netcashfrominvesting156222216148156161FinancingDividendpaid3629126167230288Netborrowings02080000Proceedsfromshareissues02530000Others1840000Netcashfromfinancing54428126167230288NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear497388572337592205Exchangedifference3380000Cashattheendoftheyear388572337592205313GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue137594521376324261Grossprofit231745664341316243Netprofit20111161069345372253PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin180197215210209206ReturnonequityROE75132213238272280GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox232118192123Receivableturnoverdays1438111810811014936913Inventoryturnoverdays1188676763730664664Payableturnoverdays273223273273273273VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE238227102826048PEdiluted238231103836048PB172620181512Divyield151634375063SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE718Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8